tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8666014957748819737..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Confronting uncertainyMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84912258585808027332016-06-28T00:56:23.934+01:002016-06-28T00:56:23.934+01:00Don't worry, Draghi has a bazooka and he's...Don't worry, Draghi has a bazooka and he's not afraid to use it. What's that? Oh, he did? No more bonds to buy?? Shit... <br /><br />This latest crisis feels like it has legs, and right now I wouldn't buy DB or the Italian banks at any price, but I think we might see Barclays trade at prices very close to the GFC lows, and that might be interesting when we get there, the problem is that's a fair bit lower than where it trades now. We'll keep an eye on Santander and Banco Bilbao as well.<br /><br />The "US as Safe Haven" arguments will spark a few dead cat bounces in spoos, but they will all be sold...Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63778526476077165102016-06-28T00:10:45.239+01:002016-06-28T00:10:45.239+01:00@Anon at 10:36, I don't know why Greenspan is ...@Anon at 10:36, I don't know why Greenspan is allowed to leave his house, much less get paid to speak to people.... <br /><br />- WhammerWhammernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11229802887174962262016-06-27T23:05:05.661+01:002016-06-27T23:05:05.661+01:00Howard Silverblatt @hsilverb
S&P Global Bro...Howard Silverblatt @hsilverb <br />S&P Global Broad Market Index (BMI) lost another $0.93 Trillion today, after Friday’s $2.01T, bringing the 2-days to a record $3.01T declineAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85604045184667590542016-06-27T22:54:46.427+01:002016-06-27T22:54:46.427+01:00http://www.mauldineconomics.com/this-week-in-geopo...http://www.mauldineconomics.com/this-week-in-geopolitics/is-brexit-the-end-of-the-euAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80329825204609143592016-06-27T22:36:31.841+01:002016-06-27T22:36:31.841+01:00Don;t panic people, Greenspan just warned that we ...Don;t panic people, Greenspan just warned that we are about to have another crisis far worse than the GFC, that all welfare spending is unsustainable, and that we face global stagnation and hyperinflation of all fiat currencies. Apparently the only way out is to return to the gold standard.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84776339541812805552016-06-27T22:31:58.769+01:002016-06-27T22:31:58.769+01:00Some Uk banks lost 25% of their share value today....Some Uk banks lost 25% of their share value today. EU banks down 20-30%. These last 2 working days are the worst days EVER for EU banks. Remember if a bank goes under (and a few of them will), the EU will NOT bail them - there will be bail-ins as was the case in Cyprus. <br /><br />FOLKS IMHO WE ARE GOING TO SEE A BANK RUN IN EUROPE IN COMING DAYS.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81539142820803742872016-06-27T22:13:21.217+01:002016-06-27T22:13:21.217+01:00well markets have about 2-3 weeks before earnings ...well markets have about 2-3 weeks before earnings hit. ISM I am sure will be closely watched. anyone know if Brexit was in survey time period<br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46336456884268778922016-06-27T21:58:04.127+01:002016-06-27T21:58:04.127+01:00The grind lower in us eq will likely be bought rep...The grind lower in us eq will likely be bought repeatedly but to no avail. Just as shorts were squeezed on the way up, now we will do the excercise the other way. This time the macro drivers finally are allowed to surface. The writing was on the wall, brexit just the trigger. There could have been a number of other events that would have qualified as one. Us eq will struggle until fed eases for the last time...and they are unlikely do so after market drops a few percentage points. Good luck out therenonrandomwalkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17344465567895883633noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67326904529647091502016-06-27T21:26:41.010+01:002016-06-27T21:26:41.010+01:00T - welcome back - where've you been all this ...T - welcome back - where've you been all this time? were you one of the 10 guests on Nico's boat on brexit eve?<br /><br />The answer to your rhetorical question is that it is in fact a headwind to every bank everywhere. <br />FD, bought some upside calls in spoos to play a bounce into potential CB comments, but I have to say this selloff somehow feels different - the dollar is really not obeying the over-lords, how dare it…<br /><br />left alluded to this a few weeks ago, but failed dip buying is more powerful than any other negative catalyst - I think we may be at a point where we hold our nose, cover our ears, turn off cbbc, and let the price action tell us what the market wants to do - spoiler alert - it may want to do something rather different than our pavlovian 2-3 year experience has taught us. <br /><br />Good luck everyone - the next few weeks, if not months, may be the most interesting we've seen in a while.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11218150593770743332016-06-27T21:02:53.017+01:002016-06-27T21:02:53.017+01:00At the risk of burning my fingers I worked into so...At the risk of burning my fingers I worked into some euro bank positions today. In broad strokes my thesis is that the UK banks are totally screwed, but the mainland banks may actually benefit a bit. Much of London banking seemed predicated on the idea that they had unfettered access to EU without full eurozone regulations. No matter what happens going forward it seems unlikely that this special arrangement will continue. Isn't this at least a small tailwind for their mainland counterparts?Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73945639003526865972016-06-27T20:16:17.750+01:002016-06-27T20:16:17.750+01:00Pol,
I'm with you this time. JBTFDPol,<br /><br />I'm with you this time. JBTFDCityhunternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80967288718384432272016-06-27T19:40:29.249+01:002016-06-27T19:40:29.249+01:00We took some profits today in USO, CADUSD and IWM ...We took some profits today in USO, CADUSD and IWM shorts and UUP calls, but we are not interested in getting long equities at the moment - not while the EU banks are falling 10-20% every day. Dip buyers can easily lose one or more appendages in this market environment.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30799676307663440922016-06-27T19:16:56.160+01:002016-06-27T19:16:56.160+01:00IMHO, the political vacuum in the UK now with conc...IMHO, the political vacuum in the UK now with concerns about Scottish secession is the biggest unknown.<br /><br />1. Is the BoE politically capable of launching QE to save their banks should it become necessary? <br /><br />2. Will the BoE save RBS this time around should it become necessary?<br /><br />3. What is the transmission for contagion to European, and American banks?<br /><br />4. Will concerns about the near future slow down all economic activity in the UK?<br /><br />I see a lot of posts around the web of people in the denial phase - where they've have imagined a scenario where brexit is undone. The most interesting is through a new government that effectively repudiates brexit leaving these past few days as a hazy tequila infused vomit session that everyone eventually regrets and forgets.<br /><br />Whatever the lack of organization and planning for the day after on the brexit side, they did win. So I think we're going to have to live with the uncertainty for a while.<br /><br />Having said that, the market would love nothing else than to pretend that brexit is not happening. I'm personally slowly building a position in SAN and will unload at a euphoric moment of brexit denial that I expect in the new few weeks.<br /><br /><br /><br /> <br />MrBeachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74796648566378332962016-06-27T18:56:49.430+01:002016-06-27T18:56:49.430+01:00A short-term rally for the next 4 days perhaps: en...A short-term rally for the next 4 days perhaps: end of the month, end of the quarter, and end of the first half-year. <br /><br />Or, will The Great Brexit-Bear continue to rebalance global portfolios?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23854912163913887452016-06-27T18:48:40.694+01:002016-06-27T18:48:40.694+01:00Pol, might be good for a short term DCB punt, but ...Pol, might be good for a short term DCB punt, but I would JBTFD in the USD for the time being and leave it at that. Crude is going down and it is going to go down all of July and it is going to take a lot of energy stocks with it. See you at SPX 1890???<br /><br />My Kevlar™ Gloves are staying in the drawer. S&P downgrade of UK, more nastiness ahead for the EU and UK banks, it's ugly.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40524281519950196162016-06-27T18:21:24.935+01:002016-06-27T18:21:24.935+01:00Turnaround tuesday on the cards ?Turnaround tuesday on the cards ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88613314765796653802016-06-27T18:19:36.387+01:002016-06-27T18:19:36.387+01:00LB IJBTFDLB IJBTFDPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50764385901776749942016-06-27T17:17:55.913+01:002016-06-27T17:17:55.913+01:00Draghi is about to open his mouth. Anything he can...Draghi is about to open his mouth. Anything he can say to help the EU banks?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5535893523267236022016-06-27T16:53:33.215+01:002016-06-27T16:53:33.215+01:00Mr QE is now bearish
At present, I do not see a c...Mr QE is now bearish<br /><br />At present, I do not see a change in this trend toward populism across Europe or the US. My biggest short-term worry, of course, is Europe. Every SWF that has built up a euro reserve position in the last 16 years must be panicking. They will need to sell European assets, given the risks of further fracturing post Brexit. We have Frexit, Nexit, Auxit, and Itexit to contend with in coming quarters. The Euro will almost surely become a more nebulous concept as the fracture deepens. Further, the risk parity and CTA world came into this whole Brexit trade max long global risk — with low vol fueling bigger and bigger positions. The bottom line is that there are both fast money and real money sellers of risk waiting anxiously in the wings. <br />Of course some folks may still be thinking of buying (or adding to) risk positions on the notion that central banks will come to the rescue as they have always done over the last seven years. And that is likely to be true in the end, but rescue requires a complicated market path with much more pain first. With spoos barely 5% from the all-time highs and the unemployment rate at 4.7%, there is NO sense of urgency at the Fed. I would argue that we need 18 handles in spoos to get the Fed pivoting towards an aggressive easing. Maybe even 17s. Further, while the market may initially react positively to a BoE, BoJ, or ECB move towards more accommodation, those moves will likely backfire as the DXY soars in response. If any of those three move, China will keep fixing USDCNY like they did last night and send us back toward an August- or January-style Chexit trade. The only backstop in town is the FOMC, and they come in at a much lower level. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35197694754344644622016-06-27T16:49:36.236+01:002016-06-27T16:49:36.236+01:00Long USD anyone? Leaving GBP out of it:
1. World O...Long USD anyone? Leaving GBP out of it:<br />1. World OK: Fed hikes<br />2. World not OK: rest of world way more not OKSharpeMindnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82321851728055504712016-06-27T16:35:43.379+01:002016-06-27T16:35:43.379+01:00Several people warned against early dip buying, an...Several people warned against early dip buying, and that seems to have been sound advice. Stay away until the European banks stop free falling seems almost too obvious?Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-497431662603231462016-06-27T16:18:31.424+01:002016-06-27T16:18:31.424+01:00Booger, I suspect we will need a turn-around-tuesd...Booger, I suspect we will need a turn-around-tuesday to go with your view. So far I'm watching and waiting. <br /><br />EU banks, well I guess my theory is about to be tested, about how bad can it get. Intesa Sao paulo and other Iti banks just free falling. CoCo's starting to move a bit but still much above Feb lows. <br /><br />Oil/HYG so far contained as are rates and FX but perhaps they are just waiting. <br /><br />Policy response will come but just feels like markets going to have to push a lot harder before it comes. <br /><br />Nasdaq/Biotech, transports(airlines) taking the beatingdesabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67602926439888538612016-06-27T16:05:43.239+01:002016-06-27T16:05:43.239+01:00Thank you MM - great analysis as usual. I did not...Thank you MM - great analysis as usual. I did not know this was an "advisory referendum" and did not legally bind Parliament to action. This raises a lot of questions, but seems to suggest that the laws of political physics draw this divorce process out even more so than contemplated. And then the question comes to mind, that if the process is drawn out even more and the road map to divorce continues to remain opaque....doesn't the prospect of a "re-referendum" become all the more obvious -- Glastonbury is over now isn't it?? <br />Tallbackennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-262177178240748382016-06-27T16:03:56.768+01:002016-06-27T16:03:56.768+01:00reading some thoughts now circulating that article...reading some thoughts now circulating that article 50 may never be invoked and an election brought forward and fought (and won) purely on Brexit could claim legitimacy and halt the Brexit process. Also increasing articles claiming brexit vote regrets.<br /><br />likelihood of this ? i am not familiar with UK politics so wonder if there is any substance to this. <br /><br />the flip side is EU want UK out, but then again they cant do anything to force UK to invoke article 50 ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76111365333777014222016-06-27T15:58:37.204+01:002016-06-27T15:58:37.204+01:00McKinsey:
In 1990, there were 11,500 M&A deals...McKinsey:<br />In 1990, there were 11,500 M&A deals whose combined value was equivalent to 2 percent of world GDP. <br /><br />Fast forward: [Between 2008 and 2014], there have been some 30,000 deals a year totaling roughly 3 percent of world GDP. <br /><br />JPM:<br />Global M&A deals jumped 36% per year in value in 2014 and 2015 to reach 6% of world GDP in 2015.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com