tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8512701492081225704..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Good Moaning, Jean-ClaudeMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6459744996102857262009-10-09T11:14:12.539+01:002009-10-09T11:14:12.539+01:00When does one expect the “economy to recover”? Cha...When does one expect the “economy to recover”? Chairman’s jaws were stretched to the point that the bone (& the rapidly crunching credibility) had to be “upheld” there a little by say an invisible hand; overnight, before an auction reopened an on the run security afternoon. Now one must again bail out a dealer or two - of its holdings. Hence it is not exactly “today” that the economy suddenly recovers. Neither did the probability that the branch of QE, that should have already ended, end (again), rise.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72088413983097388102009-10-09T09:12:08.914+01:002009-10-09T09:12:08.914+01:00technicals on Us treasuries starting to give me a ...technicals on Us treasuries starting to give me a feeling that we could see a spike upwards in rates. if the short end follows, that could cause a short squeeze in the $. that and the former might then puncture the wheels of the equity lamborghini..spagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54464200141309450542009-10-09T03:04:43.111+01:002009-10-09T03:04:43.111+01:00Unfortunately so long as China is pegged Asia-ex e...Unfortunately so long as China is pegged Asia-ex exporters get screwed. Could it be that the rest of APEC goes feral on China because of this?Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36311458383030989732009-10-08T17:58:27.763+01:002009-10-08T17:58:27.763+01:00Vendor, yeesh, my spelling is just terrible.Vendor, yeesh, my spelling is just terrible.Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63450415481565016402009-10-08T17:57:54.236+01:002009-10-08T17:57:54.236+01:00Nemo, it's not a ponzi scheme if it never coll...Nemo, it's not a ponzi scheme if it never collapses. Dollar devaluation could help the US if it were done more abruptly. <br /><br />Stick China with the bill, they wanted to run a vender financing program and now their customer is in default. Not a popular thing to say but there are few alternatives.Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40871267073402275472009-10-08T17:48:53.069+01:002009-10-08T17:48:53.069+01:00This is my point with my coworkers: if your cash c...This is my point with my coworkers: if your cash costs are largely in AUD or ZAR, every buck you make on the revenue side is probably going to be cut out from under you on costs. <br /><br />Seriously, this is a futures ponzi scheme, the idea that "special situations" guys are getting into this is a good sign that we are probs less than half a year from a major, major top.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76087000830734545652009-10-08T17:42:14.268+01:002009-10-08T17:42:14.268+01:00Nemo, all,
Check out charts of gold in ZAR and AU...Nemo, all,<br /><br />Check out charts of gold in ZAR and AUD - this is why there won't be a huge flood of gold out of these countries.<br /><br />Anon (1104) and Ivan - don't even get me started on the gold short conspiracy theories, please!<br /><br /><br />ChrisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8744071208542194912009-10-08T17:11:51.236+01:002009-10-08T17:11:51.236+01:00this fight is getting exhausting
mpmthis fight is getting exhausting<br /><br /><br />mpmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41491723934012137332009-10-08T16:39:17.336+01:002009-10-08T16:39:17.336+01:00EU political system is dominated by socialists, si...EU political system is dominated by socialists, similiar to the new coalition in Japan. Having a strong euro or yen for the left means the end of the dollar, multipolar world, and so on.<br /><br />Strong currency is not good for the economies of these nations, but since when did the left care about that? Politics and US schadenfreude trump other concerns.Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3937767404708568132009-10-08T16:35:55.660+01:002009-10-08T16:35:55.660+01:00YES Macro Man ...
Thanks for this! ... what a jo...YES Macro Man ... <br /><br />Thanks for this! ... what a joke! Seriously, I turned off after the two first questions. He uses the same words, the same sentences, and even accentuates the same way. <br /><br />Especially that one about how they don't like "excessive volatility in the currency markets" on the question concerning the Euro ... <br /><br /><br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23233564561776812372009-10-08T15:28:10.433+01:002009-10-08T15:28:10.433+01:00As long as we have a ton of people like 11:57 who ...As long as we have a ton of people like 11:57 who don't believe that a company might possibly be able to turn a profit with "the lowest levels of inventory ever" in the system during a period of restocking, I'm still bullish on equities. In fact, I'm beginning to ponder whether we might see some sort "labor restocking" given how much payrolls have been slashed. <br /><br />Also MM you should take a look at housing, which is showing signs of life.Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12325797293534490304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23437748564933858352009-10-08T14:50:15.260+01:002009-10-08T14:50:15.260+01:00$ bull = 元 bull.
Shorts to cover + awful lot of ...$ bull = 元 bull. <br /><br />Shorts to cover + awful lot of 元 being printed… says $(=元)gold. To keep the growth on nominal target that “keeps the peoples happy”. No doubt. <br /><br />Not a DGDF member, but not a $ bull here. Or a “moratorium” ¥ one. Not even €an cheerleader. £ is basket. That pretty much strikes me out of any type of (not so) S-DR fan club. <br /><br />No comment indeed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91425146722425036722009-10-08T14:10:21.991+01:002009-10-08T14:10:21.991+01:00Now here's the "no comment..."Now here's the "no comment..."Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62160208341780575302009-10-08T14:08:24.968+01:002009-10-08T14:08:24.968+01:00It's almost worse, he said he supports the US&...It's almost worse, he said he supports the US' strong dollar policy, which means he supports a weak dollar. And the currency strength didn't even get an honorable mention as contributing to "price stability."Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18758647772956228562009-10-08T14:00:13.926+01:002009-10-08T14:00:13.926+01:00I am sitting here kind of stunned, actually....I w...I am sitting here kind of stunned, actually....I wonder if he's feeling OK? That was about as innocuous as saying "no comment"Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82883391612252043302009-10-08T13:58:50.158+01:002009-10-08T13:58:50.158+01:00Trichet didn't even make an effort to jawbone ...Trichet didn't even make an effort to jawbone the Euro down. Looks like the buck sinks or swims on its own merits.Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44532407848248925682009-10-08T13:23:07.016+01:002009-10-08T13:23:07.016+01:00Yeah but as a private equity trade? That's lik...Yeah but as a private equity trade? That's like being a VC in 1999 and saying "no dude, its all good, by 2002 we'll be flipping this thing for 5x". <br /><br />Dangerous game from where I am sitting, especially if the assets have limited exploration upside since they are in pretty well prospected areas unlike, say, Argentina as it pertains to say, Andean Resources.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46387910568426146632009-10-08T13:20:16.035+01:002009-10-08T13:20:16.035+01:00Nemo,
these prices do create supply but I don'...Nemo,<br /><br />these prices do create supply but I don't think it can happen in a hurry. Takes time to get gold out of the ground and in the system. And if you are seeing a speculative mania developing it doesn't really matter. I still think, as I've said before that Silver is the better play here but it tends to lag Gold and then spike up near the end of the hysteria. However, there is arguably more value in it and price appreciation potential. <br /><br />I personally agree with buying the underlying itself, but it seems that if you can pick the right companies(ie those very marginal producers that you mention) they can offer a highly leveraged bet on the value of Gold.thetradernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1835658898519500182009-10-08T12:50:58.777+01:002009-10-08T12:50:58.777+01:00One dollar bull here as soon as these trade tensio...One dollar bull here as soon as these trade tensions ratchet up properly. I'm a "hard catalyst" kind of guy, what can I say.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62827950503540290622009-10-08T12:48:31.357+01:002009-10-08T12:48:31.357+01:00Richie Rich
one dollar bull here..Richie Rich<br />one dollar bull here..spagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76823278352152574832009-10-08T12:02:03.335+01:002009-10-08T12:02:03.335+01:00I am telling you guys right now that these kinds o...I am telling you guys right now that these kinds of prices in gold create supply. All kinds of shit Australian companies are filing for IPOs or private offerings that have yesteryear's gold assets that wouldn't have a hope at $900, let alone $750. Now if only I can convince my coworkers that buying this stuff is insane and we shouldn't do it and just buy futures instead if we like gold....Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31597267100112399202009-10-08T11:57:20.767+01:002009-10-08T11:57:20.767+01:001. Doesn't matter what we think of the AA ear...1. Doesn't matter what we think of the AA earnings (one time sales, etc., contributing to the EPS). Any sane individual knows it's crap long run. But the market wants to go up, and up it will go.<br /><br />2. Regarding the short positions in gold, I'm going to make the assumption that the only reason guys like JPM won't cover, is because they're "in-the-know" on future happenings, and can see it coming back down again. They know how to cut their losses, and won't hold something they think is going to kill them. Hmm...or would they (derivatives)?<br /><br />-IvanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2435553466736804372009-10-08T11:56:53.538+01:002009-10-08T11:56:53.538+01:00How much cash is actually still around looking for...How much cash is actually still around looking for a home? I keep seeing quotes that cash levels at mutuals are down to levels not seen since 2007 mkt highs. So who is going to buy all these bank recapitalisation offerings? Asian interests again? <br /><br />Oh and shout if you are a USD bull? (swishsh... tumbleweed rolls across the screen). Is that it ? The last bull been shot last night?Richie Richnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15541003489384751502009-10-08T11:17:04.410+01:002009-10-08T11:17:04.410+01:00I'm not sure yet whether I like the results of...I'm not sure yet whether I like the results of AA.<br /><br />Okay the operational margin rose to 18,6 % and the year 2009 now gives us an average of 8,4 %. In the past years the margin was about 30 %.<br /><br />In the year 2008 the operational margin was distorted by the recalculation of the accrued pension benefits (serious change in discounting). I recalculated it and it was higher than the average. Okay there was a drop in alu prices in Q4-2008 but the company hedged.<br /><br />Over the last quarter I think there was a slight reversal in this provision and we had the effect of inventory valuation (higher alu prices). Hard to estimate the impact but overall not sensational for a restocking period.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2166896388728863082009-10-08T11:04:05.333+01:002009-10-08T11:04:05.333+01:00One wonders if/when the short gold players (JPM, H...One wonders if/when the short gold players (JPM, HSBC, ...) will cover. If I remember correctly their positions are large enough to make a dent on earnings.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com