tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8429036102610562465..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Jumpin' Jack FlashMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22011428687069297932008-01-13T09:09:00.000+00:002008-01-13T09:09:00.000+00:00Also not being an energy expert:All hydrocarbons a...Also not being an energy expert:<BR/><BR/>All hydrocarbons are just refined and stored solar energy, after all. And there are many promising developments in this field right now.<BR/><BR/>Atomic power will not save the day, because of the lack of uranium - there is a good resaon for tremendous uranium bull in recent years.<BR/><BR/>imho, the most real and potentially profitable energy source to invest is solar.flipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06336006601107238114noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70966963655657796222008-01-08T16:37:00.000+00:002008-01-08T16:37:00.000+00:00what do you use to chaion your fuel data - if it i...what do you use to chaion your fuel data - if it is a government reported rate, it is wrong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29225609208684418522008-01-08T15:29:00.000+00:002008-01-08T15:29:00.000+00:00M,I agree. I just couldn't bring myself to kick 10...M,<BR/><BR/>I agree. I just couldn't bring myself to kick 10 years out the door with one boot. I base my case, BTW, on the assumption that one should expect a certain minimum degree of agreement on what an asset is worth over any short-term in generally upward markets. This is to say that bouts of hedging against the possibility that one might <I/>not</I> make money - otherwise known as 'panic buying' - are relatively rare, generally short-lived and usually come in the wake of bear spells. Another exception would be the year and some long runup to Black Monday - mesmerizing to watch the entire thing play out, but maybe telling you as much about repeatable market behaviour as the two-headed boy at the circus can concerning individual liberty.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69212075604481972652008-01-08T15:02:00.000+00:002008-01-08T15:02:00.000+00:00Solar and wind energy sources can also be used to ...Solar and wind energy sources can also be used to produce electricity for electrolysis on site. The hydrogen produced can be stored and/or transported with little energy loss.<BR/>Yes, gasoline and hydrogen gas are explosive, but this engineering problem can be solved.<BR/><BR/>Trader WaltAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71456513331947328332008-01-08T14:59:00.000+00:002008-01-08T14:59:00.000+00:00Here's the EIA data on gasoline sales:http://tonto...Here's the EIA data on gasoline sales:<BR/><BR/>http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a103600001m.htm<BR/><BR/>Looks like 2007 is tracking under 2006. But then again, the last three years have been somewhat weak.Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12325797293534490304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69732071364802196392008-01-08T14:24:00.000+00:002008-01-08T14:24:00.000+00:00CB, I'd suggest that the micro-volatility world of...CB, I'd suggest that the micro-volatility world of 2003-2006 was the anomaly, not the preceding six seven years.<BR/><BR/>As for hydrogen fuel cells, I freely confess that I know next to nothing about them. I gather the production cost for the FCX is about $1 million per car...hence the ten year timetable Honda puts on mass production. <BR/><BR/>I do know, however, that "never" is an awfully long time, and I'll take the under when it comes to commercial viability of hydrogen fuel cells. (The bit about a perpetual auto machine was half tongue in cheek, btw)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29876268044351351972008-01-08T14:15:00.000+00:002008-01-08T14:15:00.000+00:00"Fringe technologies (wind, solar, ethanol, hydro,..."Fringe technologies (wind, solar, ethanol, hydro, wave motion, etc.) will always remain on the fringe until the cheapest forms of energy (oil, gas, coal) on this planet are consumed."<BR/><BR/>Gotta disagree strongly here.<BR/><BR/>The stone age didn't end for a lack of stones.nodoodahshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05324705536306995431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39516870789030614062008-01-08T14:14:00.000+00:002008-01-08T14:14:00.000+00:00Clean hydrogen power will never happen. "Still......Clean hydrogen power will never happen. "Still....can you see a scenrio 50 yrs into the future where a hydrogen fuel cell car emits water...which is then reprocessed to extract hyrdorgen, leaving O2 as the only emission?" <BR/><BR/>The "reprocessing" would involve burning a lot of coal to generate the electricity needed to remove the H from the 02. Or perhaps a chemical solution (as yet undiscovered?) that would produce some other byproduct?<BR/><BR/>TANSTAAFL!<BR/><BR/>There ain't no such thing as a free lunch!<BR/><BR/>The H-based fuel cell just makes the environmentally harmful emissions elsewhere rather out the tailpipe.<BR/><BR/>Still, NYC is much cleaner today than it was 100 years ago, with thousands of tons of horse manure on the streets and filling the sewers, polluting the water supply. No?nodoodahshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05324705536306995431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28741058600442649292008-01-08T14:11:00.000+00:002008-01-08T14:11:00.000+00:00MM,Power generation is my game, and producing H2 w...MM,<BR/>Power generation is my game, and producing H2 will be a tough nut to crack economically. It takes electricity to extract the H from H20 and it takes oil or gas (or nuclear or coal, if the environmentalists lay down and die), to generate the electricity. If you did have H, a normal internal combustion engine can power the vehicle without the need for a $100,000 fuel cell. The purpose of the fuel cell is to extract the H from other compounds, specifically natural gas.<BR/><BR/>Both UTC's and FCE's commercial fuel cell products use natural gas as the base source of btu's for generating electricity. Consumption efficiency is in the mid 40% range which is slightly better than a 35% internal combustion engine, and the output is clean instead of dirty.<BR/><BR/>Fuel cell cost is another issue, at least at this time. A 250 kW fuel cell costs $900,000 to buy; a 250 kW diesel runs about $75,000. I expect the prices to be more in line in the future, but at the present time, without government incentives, it just ain't worth it.<BR/><BR/>The goal of reducing our need for hydrocarbons can best be met with nuclear. It is painful to say, but it is the only technology on a 50 year horizon that is even close to meeting the enormous energy needs of this planet.<BR/><BR/>If the goal is clean air, electric vehicles and their variation that are refilled from charging stations are the answer. The electricity for these vehicles is produced in highly treatable power plants that are 70% efficient. But those electrons will always cost you and I more than anything that runs on gasoline.<BR/><BR/>Fringe technologies (wind, solar, ethanol, hydro, wave motion, etc.) will always remain on the fringe until the cheapest forms of energy (oil, gas, coal) on this planet are consumed. <BR/><BR/>Regarding peak oil, I am not an expert on this subject at all, but I was a young twerp fresh out of college in the mid 1970's who embraced the experts' opinions that the world was going to run out of oil by 1990. This time around, I put myself in the skeptic's camp.<BR/><BR/>Big JohnAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82060437467889325202008-01-08T14:06:00.000+00:002008-01-08T14:06:00.000+00:00What this very anomalous bull in developed markets...What this very anomalous bull in developed markets has lacked throughout its long life, M, has been widespread retail participation as well as real enthusiasm on the part of value investors. What it hasn't wanted for has been stability from the proliferation of hedged and pair mathematical strategies and an upward bias from private equity and the undiscriminating 'float all ships' of long ETF's.<BR/><BR/>Remove program strategies from the mix because risk is now being calculated differently (and don't expect them to reappear quickly if only because designers now have to deal with several years of tainted data from which the backing out their own shadow would be appropriate) and take private equity out for the meantime because of credit issues and we're left with value/retail.<BR/><BR/>Unless one thinks that pure punters will come out in force in an economic downturn, the appropriate bet might be downhill. Large wouldn't surprise, although I won't stick my neck out that far.<BR/><BR/>As an aside, my gut feeling about the 1997-2003 period is that it is, to the extent that I believe that there is information in price movements, so unusual as to be near useless - six years reduced to an anecdote.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73195675427667763822008-01-08T13:02:00.000+00:002008-01-08T13:02:00.000+00:00Vlade, sorry if I wasn't clear; it is a (hydrogen-...Vlade, sorry if I wasn't clear; it <I>is</I> a (hydrogen-based) fuel cell, which reportedly is less combustible than gasoline. POint taken on the energy required to create the H to begin with; this is not a completely clean solution. Still....can you see a scenrio 50 yrs into the future where a hydrogen fuel cell car emits water...which is then reprocessed to extract hyrdorgen, leaving O2 as the only emission?><BR/><BR/>In the meantime, surely these vehicles are the solution to the droughts caused by climate change; they should be a sure winner in Australia! ;)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62030609134034935882008-01-08T12:17:00.000+00:002008-01-08T12:17:00.000+00:00Well, the natural gas used to produce hydrogen (al...Well, the natural gas used to produce hydrogen (albeit in California solar energy hydrolysis would probably work as well) does produce CO2 - the question is what's more energy efficient.<BR/><BR/>Additionaly, H is extremely dangerous. This natural gas x10... I'd not want to be in an H car that just crashed - all those Holywood scenes of exploding cars might actually happen (as opposed to a car running on gasoline, which are actually quite unlikely to explode). That's why I prefer on-demand fuel cells to a tankfull of hydrogen.<BR/><BR/>On an off-note, I'd like to see what would happen if we converted all the cars to H - namely what effect that extra generated moisture would have on our athmosphere :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com