tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8337436964303907201..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The HaircutMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger94125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52330632005763507762023-05-20T14:54:31.255+01:002023-05-20T14:54:31.255+01:00โปรโมชั่น pg slot มากมาย เล่นง่ายจ่ายจริง แตกจริง ...โปรโมชั่น pg slot มากมาย เล่นง่ายจ่ายจริง แตกจริง ต้อง PG-สล็อต เท่านั้น! เล่นสล็อต พีจีสล็อต เว็บไซต์ตรงผู้ให้บริการเกมสล็อตออนไลน์ชั้นหนึ่ง ทกลอง เล่น ฟรี พร้อมโบนัสpg slot (หน้าหลัก)https://pgslot-th.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77365526395754143382023-05-20T14:53:52.436+01:002023-05-20T14:53:52.436+01:00สล็อต PGSLOTแตกง่าย เล่นง่ายได้เงินจริงผู้ให้บริกา...สล็อต PGSLOTแตกง่าย เล่นง่ายได้เงินจริงผู้ให้บริการเกมสล็อต pg slot ออนไลน์บนโทรศัพท์เคลื่อนที่ที่มีเกมนานาประการให้เลือก เป็นเกมรูปแบบใหม่ที่ทำเงินให้ผู้เล่นได้เงินจริง pg slot (หน้าหลัก)https://pg-slot.game/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38034966347119686072022-05-13T19:00:24.647+01:002022-05-13T19:00:24.647+01:00We are really grateful for your blog post. You wil...We are really grateful for your blog post. You will find a lot of approaches after visiting your post. Great work<br /><a href="https://www.lordhair.com/mens-hair-systems/stock-hair-pieces.html" rel="nofollow">men's hair pieces</a><br />Lordhairhttps://www.lordhair.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19168854277311874792021-05-18T09:48:28.783+01:002021-05-18T09:48:28.783+01:00I heard first-time micro-man hair cut, and Our Bgl...I heard first-time micro-man hair cut, and Our Bglam Hair studio team also given hair patches cost in Hyderabad.hair patches cost in Hyderabadhttps://www.bglamhairstudio.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2932405945547367052009-12-07T09:26:54.888+00:002009-12-07T09:26:54.888+00:00Interesting price action in gold again today in As...Interesting price action in gold again today in Asia. Some (late-to-the-party) gold longs must have some brown in their tiny whities..skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21669496133562900392009-12-07T09:15:30.551+00:002009-12-07T09:15:30.551+00:00»I don't care about up or down but rather the ...»I don't care about up or down but rather the ability to associate market prices with any consistent interpretation«<br /><br />… Been reading the 80+ comments above and it appears to me that no »consistent interpretation« on what/why/how happened to the »market« »prices« this last Friday …Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55583831206187405542009-12-07T08:17:11.219+00:002009-12-07T08:17:11.219+00:00"Build it and they will come"
A surpri..."Build it and they will come" <br /><br />A surprise from China's Central Economic Work Conference is a possible relaxation of the "Hu Kou" system which restricts Chinese citizens from living in certain areas (i.e. rural/urban mobility) this may be viewed as a positive for Chinese developers - i.el. accelerate urbanization trends. <br /><br />The suspicious amoung us, may wonder if the policy change is necessary to offset the possible overbuild of construction in the cities?Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41354800831612664912009-12-06T18:56:23.475+00:002009-12-06T18:56:23.475+00:00thetrader, don't quit just yet, i have recentl...thetrader, don't quit just yet, i have recently arrived certainly appreciated your comments. <br /><br />Macro Man: if i read correctly,you mention that being long vol was painful recently. of course i agree if you mean being long term vol, vega, then yes of course it was bad.<br />but being selectively long short term gamma, buying on the lows (when VIX in the low 20's), and delta hedging intraday, that worked... quite well. <br /><br />Not sure if i would recommend it right now before XMas ... though it might be a cheap punt.<br />I would recommend though using the cheap vol to put on "macro" trades more cheaply, and safely.haruspexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03558328563435639031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58602642474034066512009-12-05T07:44:29.986+00:002009-12-05T07:44:29.986+00:00Ok, it ends here.
My only interest in putting f...Ok, it ends here. <br /><br />My only interest in putting forward my views has been to help people to try and make money. I don't care about winning the argument or being right.<br /><br />Since it seems that nobody really gives a crap and would rather argue their point to the death than make money, I really am leaving this time.<br /><br />Still wish you all the best of luck.<br /><br />Peace OUTthetradernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89256848250614415872009-12-05T03:33:12.212+00:002009-12-05T03:33:12.212+00:00Dear MM,
Orthos are egos only the gods might under...Dear MM,<br />Orthos are egos only the gods might understand or traders. So as he sees his god-like work perfected and pronounces you fit; please understand that he too is a trader of sorts and it might be best to forget about skiing. But golf is fine.ddhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05372482865160613159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67529515373851366972009-12-05T00:03:05.326+00:002009-12-05T00:03:05.326+00:00Oh and this Venezuela thing - this is what I feare...Oh and this Venezuela thing - this is what I feared. Some of the rogue elements of the world saying "bugger it, whaddya gonna do about it Barry" and not paying. Especially those with resources or who are so screwed anyway they know they won't retap the eurobond market this side of 2020.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64062911002458673492009-12-04T23:55:04.677+00:002009-12-04T23:55:04.677+00:00I think thetrader is John Paulson. Tudor Jones was...I think thetrader is John Paulson. Tudor Jones was probably the guy selling him his gold position at 1200-1205 for half the day yesterday in Asian time. <br /><br />Viz this deficit thing, yeah the news flow does seem to indicate that Obama is going to at least try to take this seriously (congress is another matter entirely).Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88382967158175161072009-12-04T22:09:02.750+00:002009-12-04T22:09:02.750+00:00Well, you were right about the haircut.Well, you were right about the haircut.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12745904011100182492009-12-04T20:39:28.700+00:002009-12-04T20:39:28.700+00:00"i don't care about up or down but rather..."i don't care about up or down but rather the ability to associate market prices with any consistent interpretation"<br /><br />That's what people here call 5 minute Macro.... when it doesn't really make sense b/c everything is being driven by leveraged momentum traders.<br /><br />Established correlations tend to break down at trend changes and certainly the major turnarounds in FX markets are associated with increased volatility. I think you'd have to accept there is a tad more gamma in the commodities market today than yesterday...leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5013665570238409932009-12-04T20:10:45.744+00:002009-12-04T20:10:45.744+00:00The president sees an advanced copy of the report ...The president sees an advanced copy of the report on wednesday night. He gets the full report late morning on Thursday (and almost always his chief of staff sees it as well).<br /><br />Other White house staff, including the press secretary, see the report at 5pm so they can prepare PR material for the next morningAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31865468700603890832009-12-04T20:06:28.949+00:002009-12-04T20:06:28.949+00:00Because of that news conference hiccup yesterday s...Because of that news conference hiccup yesterday suggesting that the White H. got the data early, they revealed the procedure: WH gets the NFP data on Thursdays at 5PM.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57188729591197640122009-12-04T20:00:56.328+00:002009-12-04T20:00:56.328+00:00L/S --
I mean Fed Feds will go up 1-2% next year...L/S -- <br /><br />I mean Fed Feds will go up 1-2% next year. That is still VERY stimulative and still leaves rates well short of cost of living changes<br /><br />It also gives the Chinese (aka the only guys with money in this story) a reason to keep feeding the beast. At zero percent, they have little reason to play. And without the average person buying lots of useless trinkets from China (aka their trade surplus) -- the Chinese have less money to invest anyways.Bobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70338430445332253282009-12-04T20:00:52.813+00:002009-12-04T20:00:52.813+00:00instead of 'bullish' vs 'bearish' ...instead of 'bullish' vs 'bearish' can we change the classification spectrum to 'things we think we can logically explain' vs 'things we think may be emergent behavior of the complex market system'? i don't care about up or down but rather the ability to associate market prices with any consistent interpretation. much of the frustration i sense here has been about the inability to construct a consistent narrative between asset prices, economic data and historical events sharing many of the present's dynamics.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10813448741163348302009-12-04T19:57:01.065+00:002009-12-04T19:57:01.065+00:00L/S ... The average person is not getting 0% FedF...L/S ... The average person is not getting 0% FedFunds rate or anything like it. FF are enjoyed by Fed chartered banks and a handful of "too connected to Goldman to fail" entities.<br /><br />The average person already saw his/her rates increase (and that's when they could get credit at all)<br /><br />Either the average person gets a piece of the pie (in which case banks lose) or the Fed is forced to raise FF (in which case banks lose)...<br /><br />Obama has to make sure the benefits of this QE/ dollar devaluation are spread around to registered voters everywhere (not just bankers). His future and the Democrats in Congress depend on this happening<br /><br />The banks can make it paying higher FF rates (they are just paper edifices in front of the Fed anyways). By contrast, charging risky borrowers a politically determined rate will bring down the whole banking system (like it almost did last year)<br /><br />Share the wealth = higher rates for banks -- its a political necessity and economically it should have happened alreadyBobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51572067004233823472009-12-04T19:49:49.481+00:002009-12-04T19:49:49.481+00:00Whether anyone wants to hear this or not -- the Pr...Whether anyone wants to hear this or not -- the President and several members of his immediate staff get an advanced copy of the NFP report. <br /><br />They certainly had it yesterday, when Obama was holding his job creation think-in. Probably Obama saw it late on Wednesday<br /><br />For a guy who gets to see the report early (and question the BLS guys about it), Obama doesn't seem like he thinks we are out of the woods yetGarynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48841673847789328352009-12-04T19:48:27.305+00:002009-12-04T19:48:27.305+00:00Bob - I agree on "share the wealth" and ...Bob - I agree on "share the wealth" and the populist sentiment and legislative trajectory. But I don't understand why this leads to higher rates. Rather, it is because I share your political expectations that I think Bernanke will keep rates too low for too long. He'll be focused entirely on the Full Employment end of his side of his mandate.L/S Equity Guynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91935204384491759372009-12-04T19:47:42.278+00:002009-12-04T19:47:42.278+00:00"WWCD--what would Costanza do here?"
Lo..."WWCD--what would Costanza do here?"<br /><br />Long miners, long AUD, ZAR and CAD? Not what LB would do, however. We'll see who is right by Monday.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5799670605975357352009-12-04T19:45:57.350+00:002009-12-04T19:45:57.350+00:00The delusion is Wall Street thinking it will have ...The delusion is Wall Street thinking it will have zero rates / steep yield curve for 12-18 months...<br /><br />Voters are going to throw down a "Share the wealth" card early next year. Bernanke's re-confirmation is pretty much a guarantee -- all the humiliation, etc is (1) for the viewing pleasure of voters back home; (2) to let Ben know (and any traders that don't have their head in the clouds) that the average person needs to get some of the benefit or else<br /><br />Not to mention it was the excessively low rates that caused this disaster in the first place<br /><br />Rates are going up next year, even if -- especially if -- Wall Street doesn't like it<br /><br />That's why Geithner was told to lengthen the maturity of the Treasuries debt this year<br /><br />Get a clue guys. Actually, I look forward to hearing everyone say how surprised they are that subprimes aren't AAA againBobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19315024192895694562009-12-04T19:37:21.361+00:002009-12-04T19:37:21.361+00:00Market is delusional to think better jobs data mea...Market is delusional to think better jobs data means a rate hike next year. Listen, I'd love to see the beta trade unwind (full disclosure: net-short HF analyst) as much as any of you. I can see a scenario in which it unwinds painfully but not because rates are rising next year. In truth, the boisterous bulls should be taking the market higher now that we have stabilizing economic data and the virtual certainty of another 12-18 months of extraordinarily low rates.L/S Equity Guynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4435079821118882812009-12-04T19:07:55.931+00:002009-12-04T19:07:55.931+00:00Observation from Equity-centric world: What's...Observation from Equity-centric world: What's the deal with the Nakheel bonds continuing to go down?<br /><br />As for England; ugh...don't they know how I'll suffer at work, if we lose to the Yanks! Might see if i can book my summer hols starting 13th june from now...Our Man in NYChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05354882944509890790noreply@blogger.com