tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8325553519283464573..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Judgment WeekMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8016918624843910472006-11-27T18:20:00.000+00:002006-11-27T18:20:00.000+00:00Absolutely. While this move has been large by the...Absolutely. While this move has been large by the standards of 2006, it is extremely modest when viewd from an historical perspective. Moreover, he is generally fairly muted in press conferences on the day of raising rates, so it should be important to look through any 'dovishness' that he may express. <br /><br />Realistically, for the euro to impact the ECB's calculus, you need to see one of three things occur: a) the euro moves to an egregiously overvaled level on a trade-weighted basis. While some may argue it is already there, it is still weaker than it was a couple of years ago, thanks to a stronger sterling; b) arate of change that suggests a market dislocation. As noted above, we are hardly there yet, though 1.40 by Christmas may qualify; c) a marked deterioration in Europe's economic outlook. Given that the private sector keeps raising its forecasts for European growth and the refi rate, we are clearly not there yet.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70025665037565498452006-11-27T17:45:00.000+00:002006-11-27T17:45:00.000+00:00with this large Euro/$ move recently , do you thin...with this large Euro/$ move recently , do you think Trichet still wants to raise rates at the next ECB meeting ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com