tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8227515449996588560..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: On The RoadMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12166308708841982672010-02-11T10:40:43.786+00:002010-02-11T10:40:43.786+00:00Had to chuckle at Hendry's Russia Forum knock ...Had to chuckle at Hendry's Russia Forum knock at City hedge funds, "they're so uncool."<br /><br />Hendry is so sharp they had to pit two leftist militants against him, one open and one crypto-Socialist. Bravo.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19482761476090168652010-02-11T00:10:08.312+00:002010-02-11T00:10:08.312+00:00Stiglitz v Hendry Cage Match
MM, this is pretty ...<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4MAifsp-8E&feature=player_embedded" rel="nofollow"> Stiglitz v Hendry Cage Match </a><br /><br />MM, this is pretty entertaining, for those of us who love to hear people talk bollocks.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10616764009238364682010-02-11T00:10:01.971+00:002010-02-11T00:10:01.971+00:00MM is gone? And he left us in charge? Has he gone ...MM is gone? And he left us in charge? Has he gone mad? <br /><br />In honor of Greece can we start a new topic on re-criminalizing buggery?Professional Gringonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22064852005516249302010-02-10T23:52:48.823+00:002010-02-10T23:52:48.823+00:00"that's why the majors are going to chop ..."that's why the majors are going to chop against each other in wide ranges probably for years to come"<br /><br />Exactly correct. Thereby driving carry trades and leveraged commodity and EM "investments" up and down to keep traders busy and make boofoo profits, thereby providing much needed banker bonii until the end of time.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30695297199914083282010-02-10T23:05:00.852+00:002010-02-10T23:05:00.852+00:00OK President Obama -- we have now had a really nas...OK President Obama -- we have now had a really nasty snowstorm up here in the NYC area. The news media is calling it a blizzard. I actually had to put down my slurpy and my TV remote and shovel my driveway today!<br /><br />I want my federal assistance, my three days off from work (with pay, paid for by Federal bureaucrats since they got paid by us taxpayers the last three days)<br /><br />I also expect my bailout check. $15 billion is the going rate that your inept Treasury Secretary paid his cronies at Goldman Sachs. I actually did my job correctly, didn't screw up the financial system, and never made any false claims about doing "God's work" -- none the less I don't expect to be treated any better than your inept political contributors.<br /><br />Pay me my $15 billion, my federal assistance for suffering a blizzard, and by three days off from work -- and we will call it evenBobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86459846855226049362010-02-10T22:17:22.831+00:002010-02-10T22:17:22.831+00:00Anon 9.58
the problem with that statement is it pr...Anon 9.58<br />the problem with that statement is it presumes there are other major currencies anywhere in the world with enough liquity to take their place. In my opinion there isn't that's why the majors are going to chop against each other in wide ranges probably for years to come as each in turn pursues a beggar thy neighbour policy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15934321685820705012010-02-10T21:58:05.361+00:002010-02-10T21:58:05.361+00:00any way you look at it ... there is no reason for ...any way you look at it ... there is no reason for the euro or gbp to still be up here. parity eventually.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47749109509903639652010-02-10T21:17:40.239+00:002010-02-10T21:17:40.239+00:00"As was pointed out, the EU treaties expressl..."As was pointed out, the EU treaties expressly forbid bailouts. If laws/treaties are obeyed only when politically convenient, then they aren't really laws at all."<br /><br />When did obeying treaties, laws, regulations, and such ever matter to governments?<br /><br />"They are all a bunch of crooks as far as I can tell."<br /><br />That I agree with (and it also explains why the EU prohibition against bailouts doesn't matter in the slightest).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37726351333432887222010-02-10T21:09:56.442+00:002010-02-10T21:09:56.442+00:00Tomorrow could be Sell The News: for the Euro, and...Tomorrow could be Sell The News: for the Euro, and for Greek bonds and equities, which have staged a Dubai-like recovery - but could still be viable candidates for a World version of MM's Turds Index.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73211392628795801512010-02-10T20:45:04.820+00:002010-02-10T20:45:04.820+00:00It's conceivable that even a EU guarantee behi...It's conceivable that even a EU guarantee behind Greece won't solve their problem.These politicians seem to consistently overlook ,dare I say it ,people.<br />If the Greek people want to keep on repeating today's action with enough frequency then Greek revenues have only one way to go and there is not a blessed thing EU politicians can do about that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53311951701958268532010-02-10T19:19:31.775+00:002010-02-10T19:19:31.775+00:00Ad morons/crooks/hippies/pin heads etc.
It is con...Ad morons/crooks/hippies/pin heads etc.<br /><br />It is confusing. There are indeed many basket cases and baskets of basket cases` currencies that measure the strength of the basket case currency which is again part of basket that measures the strength of the other basket case currencies. All taking the same /one/ way. FX was supposed/intended to play the »efficient« part in this basket floating world. <br /><br />IMO, it failed the task spectacularly, currently reduced to a hostage of the Flipmode squid/s (whose analyst is currently apologising for misunderstandings due to intervention of their previously advised client).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53032951420098647932010-02-10T18:19:32.759+00:002010-02-10T18:19:32.759+00:00It speaks volumes about the financial world that e...It speaks volumes about the financial world that everyone is abuzz over which government entity will furnish our next welfare check<br /><br />Remember back in the day when we used to worry about business and making profits?!?!<br /><br />We can all just sit around and wait for our next bailout check. No need to work<br /><br />Back in the day, we used to make fun of the hippies for thinking this way -- well the hippies grew up and became CEO of the major banks<br /><br />Who is laughing now?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8127540136655499412010-02-10T17:08:43.212+00:002010-02-10T17:08:43.212+00:00@OM in NYC:
1) Yes I agree that some German polit...@OM in NYC:<br /><br />1) Yes I agree that some German politicians may want to use the Euro to annex all of Europe, but they can't do so unless the other countries turn over power of the purse (ie give up sovereignty.<br /><br />This is the world's worst kept "secret" -- Germany will be dragged under by the sum of all the basket cases, unless they get subordination (austerity by any other name will still smell like loss of sovereignty). There is no scenario where this gets popular support -- hence no scenario where a bailout works<br /><br />2) Politicians are morons, but the individual citizens in Germany and Greece less so. Germans know the loans will not be paid back and the bailouts are not going to be "temporary" or one-off events. Greeks know the austerity measures mean loss of sovereignty. Both the Germans and the Greeks vote<br /><br />Whatever Berlin / Athens cooks up short term, the voters will undo at the next election<br /><br />3) Yes, the treaties were ignored at the start (although it turns out Greece circumvented the rules far more than was originally realized) -- and look where it got them. The politicians already had there way once (none of the treaties passed a popular vote in any of the "anchor" countries)<br /><br />Fool us once, shame on you. Try to fool the voters twice, you will face early elections. The fundamental problems of Germany paying never ending reparations to most of Europe and/or Greece/Spain/Italy/Portugal losing sovereignty are not a secret and can't be denied any longer<br /><br />As LB alludes, they might kick the can down the road a few months, but Germany can't bail out all the basket cases in Europe even if Merkel could get popular support -- which isn't going to happen.<br /><br />There is no way to "fence off" just Spain or just Greece or whichever country.<br /><br />The bailout "solution" requires popular support from either Germany or Greece that will never happen.<br /><br />Best case for bailout hopefuls -- Germany is forced to revisit the "tough love" question in a few months when the next basket case fails.<br /><br />Whether its this month or this summer -- Germany must cut the cord and let the basket cases fail / leave the Euro ... or those basket cases must surrender sovereignty<br /><br />History shows that printing new currency -- LOTS of new currency -- is hardly a stumbling block for Greece or the other basket cases.<br /><br />I doubt Greece becomes Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe, but it "reversion to the mean" seems like a very reasonable scenario to me. I remember in the 1990s (pre Euro) that a t-shirt in Italy cost several thousand Lira, and it took a wheel barrel full of Drachma -- both countries issued new currencies every couple decades<br /><br />No reason why they can't resume their old habitsGarynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82040735821441826692010-02-10T16:56:37.564+00:002010-02-10T16:56:37.564+00:00Hans,
Did you take your medication this morning?Hans,<br />Did you take your medication this morning?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64350513451523958372010-02-10T16:36:09.120+00:002010-02-10T16:36:09.120+00:00Just a brief point to add regarding what @PPM has ...Just a brief point to add regarding what @PPM has said about a "firewall" to protect Spain and their brethren. <br /><br />If you remember back to the Lehman aftermath, the purchase of Merrill Lynch did not reduce pressure on the remaining investment banks, but intensified it. MS and GS were forced to become banks and receive access to Fed funding in order to survive. <br /><br />If Greece is bailed out and no provisions are put in place to assist other countries (Germany can't afford to bail everyone out) I can see market focus shifting to the next weakest link.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32873148712605417432010-02-10T16:18:00.122+00:002010-02-10T16:18:00.122+00:00Agreed with Our Man on the can kicking. Laws and ...Agreed with Our Man on the can kicking. Laws and Treaties don't say anything about can kicking.<br /><br />Greece can't go it alone and reissue drachmas. That way lies Weimar and Zimbabwe, and they know it. It's one thing for the UK to print, but quite another for the smaller economies that would lose foreign investment. Austerity dead ahead. The Irish have already accepted this fact. It will be a long hot summer in Athens, and other EU capitals.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74416282457318996032010-02-10T16:04:45.638+00:002010-02-10T16:04:45.638+00:00@Gary: Agree with everything you said in terms of ...@Gary: Agree with everything you said in terms of logic/principle/etc but...<br /><br />1). As a Brit (who was delighted we didn't join the Euro) I remember the argument (from the right) back in the day that we shouldn't join the euro because it was just another way of Germany trying to take over Europe! The Euro's a political creation, driven by the Germans & French. They're not going to abandon it easily.<br /><br />2). Politicians are morons & timing works in Greece's favour. In much the same way that Bush/Obama bailed out Wall Street and then (at least in Obama's case) expected to be able to get some reform later and failed. The Greeks/Spanish/etc will promise the world get their cash (before they hit the wall), the Germans will get to sound austere and nothing of great import will happen. The can will be kicked down the road...<br /><br />3). The Maastricht Treaty was already ignored/fudged to let the countries into the euro (Deficit less than 3% rule and Debt/GDP <60% rule were ignored) and I'm sure will be ignored/fudged to keep them there..Our Man in NYChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05354882944509890790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85196601329135180122010-02-10T15:46:51.696+00:002010-02-10T15:46:51.696+00:00Even the 1970s were bad enough, let alone Weimar. ...Even the 1970s were bad enough, let alone Weimar. Let's not go there again. Double digit inflation screws everyone in the end, except the massively indebted.<br /><br />US markets not impressed with BB mentioning the possibility of raising the discount rate, although oddly enough the banks are trading better than materials.<br /><br />If there really is no bailout it would be the first sign of a return to free market principles since the onset of the crisis. We'll see....leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17483181909077979262010-02-10T15:30:38.318+00:002010-02-10T15:30:38.318+00:00Anonymous 4:31AM
>>Hyperinflation in German...Anonymous 4:31AM<br /><br />>><i>Hyperinflation in Germany and the Weimar Republic go back almost a hundred years. </i><br /><br />Your attention span may not be able to remember the 1920s and 1930s, but those that do not learn from history are destined to repeat it. Most Germans are not as simple minded as you<br /><br />>><i>Any references to those historical events today do qualify as urban legend or simple myth.</i><br /><br />Myth? You are no longer anonymous -- you sound exactly like Iranian dictator Ahmadinejad. Everything having to do with World War II is just an urban legend or myth.<br /><br />Get a clueHansnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39605144759761411842010-02-10T15:26:25.327+00:002010-02-10T15:26:25.327+00:00@PPM:
1) I agree; if there is no popular support ...@PPM:<br /><br />1) I agree; if there is no popular support for austerity, then any restrictions Germany places (and Greek politicians accept) are unenforceable<br /><br />But without restrictions, "Greece" (including Italy, Spain, Portugal, etc) will bleed Germany to death.<br /><br />In other words, a bailout won't work without austerity measures -- which are unlikely to be enforceable and almost certainly will not have popular support.<br /><br />2) I see your point that there are long versus short term implications to this -- but they mostly exist in the minds of non-European traders hoping (wishing) to have their positions bailed out. Any Greek bailout sets a precedent... how does Germany pick and choose which EU members get a bailout? And in doing so, isn't Germany effectively deciding that some EU members are more expendable than others? What kind of union is that?<br /><br />3) Of course the treaty can be changed -- we can all sit around and argue what the meaning of "is" is too. So what?<br /><br />The underlying problems aren't solved by lawyer like word-smithing. Either the rule of law counts or it doesn't. If you change the rules whenever they are inconvenient, then why have them in the first place?<br /><br />These rules aren't being consider for change because they no longer make sense -- they are being changed because some membership doesn't want to live within its means<br /><br />There is no legal change to fix that basic problem. Any country might have have a temporary economic setback and require aid -- but lets be honest with ourselves here. Greece's spendthrift ways are not a temporary phenomenon.<br /><br />Germany will be providing "temporary" aid for as long as the EU lasts -- and even in the short term, it won't be just Greece.<br /><br />Why wouldn't the UK join up with the EU, spend as much as they like, and send the bill to Germany?<br /><br />Heck, why not have the USA join the EU, spend recklessly, and send Germany the bill?<br /><br />We already tried a situation where Germany paid reparations to the rest of Europe -- and lets just say that ended really badly.<br /><br /><br />So yes, the laws of the EU can be changed, but that won't solve the underlying problems that caused this mess. <br /><br />The stable currency articles in the EU treaties were put there to avoid free loader and moral hazard issues -- not as a linguistic inconvenience for lawyers to argue aboutGarynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89413267705866372142010-02-10T14:25:20.921+00:002010-02-10T14:25:20.921+00:00Golden a/dvisors/nalysts are shocked to learn the ...Golden a/dvisors/nalysts are shocked to learn the Greek December revision. They tell us, shocked! <br /><br />The Flipmode Squad.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67843693988554295692010-02-10T14:06:52.740+00:002010-02-10T14:06:52.740+00:00Gary et al:
A few thoughts for your consideration...Gary et al:<br /><br />A few thoughts for your consideration:<br /><br />1. Does it really matter what Greek politicians agree to? If there isn't popular support for austerity, then the Greek and other PIIGS politicians will ultimately be unable to deliver on their promises, and the whole thing collapses.<br /><br />2. There is probably a distinction between the long term and short term outcomes, especially from a market impact perspective. It is possible that Germany will organize some kind of bail out of Greece as an attempt to create a 'firewall" that prevents further contagion. It is probably much cheaper to bail Greece than Spain. If the contagion can be halted and momentum reversed, then the bailout of the other PIIGS could be avoided. It would be tantamount to Germany rolling the dice on a long shot solution.<br /><br />3. I haven't read the treaties, but if there is the political will, it is always possible to change laws. Laws are supposed to codify prevailing norms and attitudes. If those norms have changed since the conclusion of the various treaties and statutes, then their interpretation will be stretched or they will be changed to permit whatever is required.PPMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63124974075602638332010-02-10T13:43:01.673+00:002010-02-10T13:43:01.673+00:00ahh back from my travels dodging snow by the skin ...ahh back from my travels dodging snow by the skin of my chin--my orange county point had to do with the currency (euro)--and i still don't think greek troubles should equal euro troubles in any fundemental way--doesn't mean you can't make money but its like buying CDSs you got to hope there is a great fool to buy you out at a higher price cuase even in greece the chance of trigger full default clause is small--damm lawyers--and if you want to talk funding concerns well the buck don't look too good eitherAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26642183030850294032010-02-10T12:55:22.413+00:002010-02-10T12:55:22.413+00:00quite amazing that last October some of the great ...quite amazing that last October some of the great pin heads were calling for the Euro as a credible global reserve currency<br /><br />@Greg, some great points in there <br /><br />Why is all the pro-bailout commentary coming from people in the US whereas I read der spiegel and I see a lot of nothing ?Rossconoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50892445599745363022010-02-10T10:45:03.465+00:002010-02-10T10:45:03.465+00:00Assume first we don't have to give odds of the...Assume first we don't have to give odds of these countries surrendering their “sovereignty” to the “sovereign” CDS flippsters in search of their LAST fool.<br /><br />Then we can congratulate flippsters for this latest “DGUF show”, off sprung by flippin’ Greek in front of California’s “sovereign” DS, then flippin’ corresponding “sovereign” rating agencies into flippin’ their “sovereign” grades, after having their fun with Dubai and before flippin’ the Spanish type too. <br /><br />It would appear that Voldy did not enjoy all these sovereign CDS flippin’ games too much, given the value that’s added; though German exporters (and tax evaders all @ the same time) and Treasuries’ pushers found themselves enjoying the side-effects. Temporarily.<br /><br />’Tis true that running a German trade surplus would require, gee, Greece plus the lot - to run corresponding deficits of the same kind, no? Then flip-in some German banks, adding their value through credit to “sovereigns”.<br /><br />Well then. Lots of jawbones being stretched, no?<br /><br />Good luck to all “sovereign” CDS holders - credit traders adding their value, no doubt. Was said, that some were off sprung by some of them Greek banks. Looking for bailout. <br /><br />Again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com