tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post821194688784139389..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Harsh (Crude) RealitiesMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger65125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78786142075915943262017-05-24T21:27:52.581+01:002017-05-24T21:27:52.581+01:00the use of whale oil has collapsed. But it is more...the use of whale oil has collapsed. But it is more expensive than ever to buy. <br /><br />Supply and demand are complex beasts and a collapse in demand does not always mean a collapse in price. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35399582460570260872017-05-15T06:15:03.022+01:002017-05-15T06:15:03.022+01:00Well, 47.35 is all WTI could do on a pullback. Wat...Well, 47.35 is all WTI could do on a pullback. Watch 48.05 for next possible opportunity to add (it is @ 48.61 as I type). Still holding 2/3 of my original position for 50 & 52 targets.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59478873610848497652017-05-12T15:34:32.973+01:002017-05-12T15:34:32.973+01:00I don't think Crude is done, just pulling back...I don't think Crude is done, just pulling back before the next leg up. Those who missed Crude long off of 45.70 launch pad I talked about, there may be another opportunity @ 47.10<br /><br />Don't blink!IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47525564082412427332017-05-11T19:24:03.187+01:002017-05-11T19:24:03.187+01:00Crude seems to have run into a wall at $48.20, con...Crude seems to have run into a wall at $48.20, congrats to anyone who played that from the bottom, but it may be done.<br /><br />Treasuries not getting killed - after somewhat weak 10/30y auctions - may turn out to be a bit of a tell. Dealers holding a lot of paper, so don't expect that paper to be sold for a few days…. more important US macro data on tap tomorrow.<br /><br />Waiting for the media noise-o-meter to flip to "negative". It is May, after all.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83382396062661679792017-05-11T11:00:27.250+01:002017-05-11T11:00:27.250+01:00I would say it adds to conviction on the short ent...I would say it adds to conviction on the short entry to see the large PM equity suddenly spring to life today and yesterday UK gilts looked a bit more perky. These have been havens as mentioned above when equity runs have become extended. Taken overall reinforces my view that the risk on dip buying is pretty much exhausted for the UK equity broad market. Needs more catalysts to run further at this point ,but where are they ? Not much of a forecast ,but let's imagine we see 'sell in May' in the media in the days ahead.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49874365746184598722017-05-11T09:04:14.253+01:002017-05-11T09:04:14.253+01:00Might be a bit early but I have reloaded the short...Might be a bit early but I have reloaded the short FTSE today @ 7385 .Room for more aggregate entrys. The FTSE as basically done a 180 move recovering the entire pre French election dip. People short covering or sidelined and wanting to enter psot result have mainly done so. Hence, I like this entry.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10123010669332080012017-05-11T08:18:32.689+01:002017-05-11T08:18:32.689+01:00Sold the EM/DM equity summer position. Small loss ...Sold the EM/DM equity summer position. Small loss ,but this is not looking like a fortuitous time to play that tactic.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33873291392528337732017-05-11T03:02:01.525+01:002017-05-11T03:02:01.525+01:00Anyone snappin' up SNAP after hours? -23% fa...Anyone snappin' up SNAP after hours? -23% face-ripper.Gushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05716889492671161586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85809728470145091062017-05-11T02:42:11.538+01:002017-05-11T02:42:11.538+01:00Yes we've been watching and waiting for that o...Yes we've been watching and waiting for that one too, IPA. Punters will be piling on now into USDCAD, and we're just not sure if crude oil can soar like an eagle with CAD falling and all that lot going on in the Frozen North.<br /><br />Good call from a few of the regulars here on Canada housing and banks. Not just right, but you timed it well too…. <br /><br />For a variety of reasons, LB will not be short the dollar for a while - despite disappointing US growth and irrespective of Janet. If CAD and CNY (and therefore AUD and BRL) are going to struggle while EUR is going nowhere, then short USD - it's a mug's game, innit guv. If you want a safe haven FX trade, long JPY might start to work soon.<br /><br />VIX sub 10? Remarkable, but vol is all about the timing…. is this another version of 2007? We all knew what was coming in early 2007 but not how bad it was going to be - and plenty of tools didn't - so nobody knew we would have to wait until late 2008 for the dénouement. There are certainly plenty of tools out there - a generation of "passive investors" for a start. Yeah, Gundlach is right about that one. Not that "Vanguarding" isn't a great idea, but indexing has become mindless.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57868668076006894912017-05-11T01:59:29.209+01:002017-05-11T01:59:29.209+01:00There goes the next shoe. I'll be covering ano...There goes the next shoe. I'll be covering another quarter tomorrow and trailing stops lower. TD, RY, CM, BMO.<br />If USD/CAD takes out 1.38 I'll take some off as well.<br /><br />https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-10/six-canadian-banks-cut-by-moody-s-over-consumers-debt-burdenIPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54740311600428652902017-05-10T23:59:21.971+01:002017-05-10T23:59:21.971+01:00@HH
"Gundlach shredding our very own Macro Ma...@HH<br />"Gundlach shredding our very own Macro Man (Crise) on twitter:<br /><br />- Implies MM is a complete nobody "who??"<br />- States MM is categorically wrong...<br />- States MM is irrelevant "No wonder no one listens to you"<br />- Savages BBerg...<br /><br />lol"<br /><br />Thanks for that HH. I had a look at the twitter account, and in the true style of Donald J Gump, I nearly pissed myself laughing. Apparently money does not equate to good grooming or the yes men are afraid to tell them #uglycuntstthathaircannnothide. Skrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73459170606886000052017-05-10T22:41:11.102+01:002017-05-10T22:41:11.102+01:00I think as long as US stays on top in Europe, Japa...I think as long as US stays on top in Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and gulf countries UST functions as safe haven regardless of nominal debt growth. However influence can't afford to falter in any one. Watch Korea though they elected now a more pro China, pro diplomacy not warmongering with NK and very cautious on Thaad prez.<br /><br />Still I think those muni funds are pretty good. We've seemingly been waiting forever for California and co. bankruptcy yet it never seems to come. I think largest risk is reinvestment risk (lower yields) you see they have over time lowered payouts as well. If commodity blow up as some suggest they will continue to be good, but still hold GDX to supposedly protect from potential DXY weakening. Still, slowly but surely yields everywhere are being eaten away in the CB fantasy land.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50643968940686473922017-05-10T19:06:00.365+01:002017-05-10T19:06:00.365+01:00@Leftback
If the catalyst is general loss of conf...@Leftback<br /><br />If the catalyst is general loss of confidence in the U.S. as a going concern, are U.S. government bonds really the logical destination for a "flight to safety"?<br /><br />I guess that might work as long as the wheels don't actually come off of the cartAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85956085047103255382017-05-10T18:21:41.125+01:002017-05-10T18:21:41.125+01:00Got long oil (futures and call spreads) before the...Got long oil (futures and call spreads) before the API #s. Idea is that 1) we've seen a big speculative clearing last week, 2) inventory draws are going to show up soon (and people have been too focused on the US #s which are lagging the global market because the US has the world's lowest cost storage), 3) OPEC is upping its commitment ("beyond 2017" and maybe increasing cuts if prices go lower).<br /><br />Very long oil through short EURNOK, which is still quite mis-priced to oil. Did take some profit on that post-DOE #s. Inflation data out of Norway last night was a disappointment on headline, but volatile food explained the miss, so upped my bet after that.<br />Mentioned USDTRY long-dated option pricing due to forward points the other day. Structured and traded something around that.<br /><br />LB may well be right, but I think markets are more driven by global growth prospects than expectations around Trump. If the dots are going to fall hard, I think it's going to be because China gets tough on credit. Not expecting an "accident," but China may shock people by how far they let the economy slow post-19th National Congress in order to deal with their credit bubble. Heck, if Trump fails to pass much the dots may fall, but I could see the stock market holding up because the economic cycle stretches out longer without Trump over-heating things with pro-cyclical policies at the wrong time.<br /><br />I still think you have to worry that the gap between market and dots in 2019 in particular close. The labor market is tight. Speaking of tight labor markets, does anyone have the contrarian view that we start seeing labor inflation in Japan picking up more? Some calendar distortions earlier this year probably make wages look too weak there.<br /><br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70680403863506398482017-05-10T17:20:57.123+01:002017-05-10T17:20:57.123+01:00MANU, I think that it's a rally in a bear mark...MANU, I think that it's a rally in a bear market. The consensus thinking is probably that massive store closures and accompanying layoffs will make the retailers leaner and bring some stabilization to their bottom line. My thinking is that the erosion of brick and mortar biz is not only caused by Amazon and e-tailers but a fundamental consumer weakness and upcoming demand destruction. I look at auto sales cratering and I see a possible trend developing here. Wages are not rising, and while it seems like everyone who wants to work may have a job, it pays a whole lot less than the one they lost during the financial crisis employment debacle. I don't think XRT closes consecutively above the monthly middle bollinger band in the next year or so. If it does I'll be ready to capitulate.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83978240018908217082017-05-10T17:00:14.281+01:002017-05-10T17:00:14.281+01:00IPA - What is your current rationale on XRT and re...IPA - What is your current rationale on XRT and retail related stocks in the US? They appear to be holding up quite surprisingly. <br /><br />I am still holding, but have recovered from previous lows despite the negatives. MANUhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05662240644818340893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84972935893208484822017-05-10T16:20:29.522+01:002017-05-10T16:20:29.522+01:00Leftback, that brings some deep memories. Erich an...Leftback, that brings some deep memories. Erich and Nicolae were in power when I lived on the other side of the wall. Thank God Reagan had the will and the wherewithal to stand up to those men kissing in public. I am long gold and GDX.<br /><br />Crude is hopping and I want to take 1/3 off @ 47.55 and bring my stop to b/e. I have an avg entry of 44.95IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10078020679263474112017-05-10T15:37:28.916+01:002017-05-10T15:37:28.916+01:00Thought experiment.
What would have happened to s...Thought experiment.<br /><br />What would have happened to stability in East Germany or Romania if Honecker had fired and humiliated the Head of the Stasi, or Ceausescu fired the secret police chief? These are scenarios that would have caused extreme internal political divisions within some of the darkest regimes in history, and would surely have accelerated the decline of the entire regime.<br /><br />I know, the U.S. is different… American exceptionalism again, right?<br /><br />Confidence is a fragile thing. Once the world no longer believes this White House can get things done, then confidence in an economic recovery will shatter, and we will see capital flight, slow and steady, but both global and US capital will seek safety.<br /><br />I wonder if the SNB will be able to contain a rise in the franc in the next flight to safety? Swissy, gold, yen, maybe even £?<br /><br />Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1501131430546917132017-05-10T15:06:52.125+01:002017-05-10T15:06:52.125+01:00It's not just supply. Folks in the Asian time ...It's not just supply. Folks in the Asian time zone see this as a demand issue.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-09/top-oil-trader-warns-shaky-demand-risks-scuppering-opec-mission" rel="nofollow"> Oil Demand Weak Says Trader </a>Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77473710362711172702017-05-10T14:43:11.378+01:002017-05-10T14:43:11.378+01:00Crude rising again with strong momentum this morni...Crude rising again with strong momentum this morning, back above $46. It will be interesting to see whether this move is contained by $48, or even whether it will survive the next round of data releases.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35149196097062013512017-05-10T14:32:13.664+01:002017-05-10T14:32:13.664+01:00I am not sure what everyone else here thinks, but ...I am not sure what everyone else here thinks, but LB senses a disconnect between the "stability" of markets implied by VIX and by realized vol in equities of late and the "instability" that seems to be manifested in Washington DC, which is supposed to be about to deliver us through the eye of the needle guiding the recovering US economy from monetary easing to fiscal stimulus. No political bias is implied here, but the skepticism about Obama's ability to deliver was far greater than is the case here. <br /><br />Safe havens are dramatically under-priced here. Dame Janet is watching all this and she is going to delay the handoff as soon as things get messy, just watch the Dot Plot fall in the months ahead. Long Bond, JPY, volatility. Get yours now. The vol selling committee is meeting again to discuss increasing leverage, no doubt. Look out below. Once this market loses faith in the reflationary power of Trumponomics, or even worse in the viability of US democracy, then this will be ugly. <br /><br />He who panics first, panics best.<br /><br />Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78744394980771757112017-05-10T13:16:38.892+01:002017-05-10T13:16:38.892+01:00EUR/USD stops below 1.0850 are building up, I bet....EUR/USD stops below 1.0850 are building up, I bet. The gap is juicy and I don't hear too many players looking for it to fill. I will repeat what I said before French election, euro is going lower.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53666492490080851372017-05-10T08:33:40.092+01:002017-05-10T08:33:40.092+01:00Hi all.
Is anyone watching Aussie banks?
ANZ/N...Hi all. <br /><br />Is anyone watching Aussie banks? <br /><br />ANZ/NAB/WBC/CBA have all put down ho-hum results over the past week after rallying > 30% FYTD. Within all results 90+ day arrears rose (off a small base), while provisions again fell to ludicrously low levels. This comes at a time when investor loans are being re-priced higher out of cycle, and retail sales have printed negative in 3 of the past 4 months. Then last night the Aussie budget drops a bomb shell implying a ~$6.2b levy over the next 4 years. As a group they make ~$30b NPAT annually, so $1.55b ($6.2b/4) implies a ~5% on the spot d/g for each of the next 4 years. <br /><br />Given these 4 stocks make up ~25% of the Aussie market, they have benefited disproportionately from passive inflows. Interested to hear thoughts, but I for one cannot come up with a rational thesis as to why you would own these at this point in the cycle. Just feels like peak earnings, peak multiple. <br />Freshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08776962731419077666noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7603445063134895482017-05-10T08:01:39.026+01:002017-05-10T08:01:39.026+01:00Imagining that US yields were to continue their cu...Imagining that US yields were to continue their current tangent and the long end tracks back to levels last seen at Dec and Mar expiry. This is going to be a reduction of the spread between bond and equities. Whilst I would expect this to be sector specific in equities in terms of impact does anyone have a chart to depict the spread between the broad asset groups of Treasuries and equities? I suspect LB might have some ideas on the spread issue so consider yourself invited to discuss. Just trying to establish if the move in question correlates to any useful signals.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86260791080084080452017-05-09T23:19:41.037+01:002017-05-09T23:19:41.037+01:00johno - Glad you finally came 'round to the vi...johno - Glad you finally came 'round to the view I was right (i.e. don't short equities in a bull market). Have to say you it's taken you long enough...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com