tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8197801314125091360..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A Big DayMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3562451121688807432009-03-18T18:52:00.000+00:002009-03-18T18:52:00.000+00:00Deac, check next post. I prefer oil!Deac, check next post. I prefer oil!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33679148775287662912009-03-18T18:32:00.000+00:002009-03-18T18:32:00.000+00:00buh buh buh bonds, bad to the bone!well, i've been...buh buh buh bonds, bad to the bone!<BR/><BR/>well, i've been harping that we needed a strong long bond to save the housing market!!<BR/><BR/>gold 50 above the lows, loves the printing presses turning on and weak dollar i guess<BR/><BR/>cheers!<BR/>-deaconAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73911957568777691552009-03-18T18:21:00.000+00:002009-03-18T18:21:00.000+00:00QE, holy polony USD getting killed, what a moveQE, holy polony USD getting killed, what a moveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79237320368564212202009-03-18T15:47:00.000+00:002009-03-18T15:47:00.000+00:00wcw, as you may be aware, Credit Suisse has adopte...wcw, as you may be aware, Credit Suisse has adopted that very measure, creating a $5 billion turd-holding vehicle in which senior employees' bonuses are fully invested. Outsides can buy in too, if they cannot find any other dodgy paper in which to invest. It's really quite a sensible idea.<BR/><BR/>Sadly, the complexities are, in all likelihood, beyond the ken of the public and indeed the policymakers. So I stick with the stock suggestion!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91280381656429987732009-03-18T15:44:00.000+00:002009-03-18T15:44:00.000+00:00Anon @ 3.33, obviously, at some juncture, inventor...Anon @ 3.33, obviously, at some juncture, inventory rebuilding will start again. But that's an H2 story, rather than a Q2 story, as I have heard mentioned in some quarters. So if markets are rallying on the basis of an inventory-related uptick in production over the next few months, colour me sceptical.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33242496743250221332009-03-18T15:33:00.001+00:002009-03-18T15:33:00.001+00:00you are a smart man.you are a smart man.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16928241637731453712009-03-18T15:33:00.000+00:002009-03-18T15:33:00.000+00:00MM, from past 60 years, every time PMI was below 4...MM, from past 60 years, every time PMI was below 40, inventory's contribution to GDP was around -5%. Currently the available inventory number is about above 0 due to the lagged reporting time. But you can bet that inventory is dropping to -5% right now but we will only see the numbers in the second half of this year. PMI will grow fast following the bottom of inventory as history showed. PMI could go above 50 this year before it drops below 40 again later (as in 1980s). But I see that equity market is betting on production activities pick up and unemployment slows in the near future (3-4 months I presume). A few days ago in a conference, at least some people in some still healthy big financial companies agree on this projection. But we'll see. People are really cautious toward any optimism.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14066905789243639382009-03-18T15:17:00.000+00:002009-03-18T15:17:00.000+00:00I don't think you need to be so cruel as to pay in...I don't think you need to be so cruel as to pay in AIG stock, especially when you have the Solomonic option of paying in participation rights to the CDO/CDS mess AIGFP created itself: Maiden Lane Whatever-Number-We're-At. Et voila -- you get a million bucks "worth" of the waste material you created yourself.<BR/><BR/>Strikes me as just about right.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35516354907086663092009-03-18T13:57:00.000+00:002009-03-18T13:57:00.000+00:00Anon @ 12.03, Actually, inventory/sales ratios hav...Anon @ 12.03, Actually, inventory/sales ratios have screamed higher, which suggests to me that businesses are likely going to need to see a sustained recovery in demand (which would organically push those ratios lower) before re-stocking. It looks like a ways away to me.<BR/><BR/>JJ, you may be right. I have seen short-term technicals in equities like Mr. Magoo this year.<BR/><BR/>Anon @ 12.58, obviously any donations made post-conservatorship, if any, should be returned forthwith. As for donations made while AIG appeared to be a going concern, I don't think it's a moral imperative to return the donations (they were received in good faith), but it would be a nice piece of realpolitik to do so, if the money is still available from the relevant campaign organizations.<BR/><BR/>Anon @ 1.45, it means that there is a large short SGD spot position that that needs to be rolled (ie, re-borrowed.) A lot of HF and CTAs roll all their positions to the quarterly IMM date, and then as that approaches, roll to the next date. Given the size of maturing positions , as well as current spot positions (which need to be rolled each day), there is a large demand to borrow SGD at the moment, and the MAS is not providing liquidity...and watching the specs squirm.<BR/><BR/>I don't think it necessarily tells us much other than that there is a large short SGD position, and the MAS is squeezing the shorts' goolies for a bit so as to prevent a total "free-money" play on a SGD NEER depreciation next month.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16382668260862810572009-03-18T13:45:00.000+00:002009-03-18T13:45:00.000+00:00Macro Man, what does the spike in SGP O/N rates m...Macro Man, what does the spike in SGP O/N rates mean? Is it simply short covering ahead of possible QE from the Fed? It seems like funding pressures are coming back, the TIC data released Monday showed that foreign banks sourced $120bn from their US subsidiaries. In comparison, between August 2007 and August 2008 foreign banks sourced $500bn from US subsidiaries. 1/4 of that total in 1 month is a HUGE figure. The TIC data flagged funding issues well in advance last time. It feels like a bomb is about to go off somewhere in the financial system.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90727363380029088002009-03-18T13:15:00.000+00:002009-03-18T13:15:00.000+00:00they are all criminals as far as I'm concerned. O...they are all criminals as far as I'm concerned. Obama and company are putting a nice spin on the situation by publicly demanding AIG bonuses be returned, it will never happen though<BR/><A HREF="http://www.bigmovingstock.com" REL="nofollow">http://www.bigmovingstock.com</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33348075854290735282009-03-18T12:58:00.000+00:002009-03-18T12:58:00.000+00:00MM - don't you think it would be prudent to see Ob...MM - don't you think it would be prudent to see Obama and the House and Senate members return all the campaign loot that they all took from AIG? I think Dodd took in 103k and Obama 101k from them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15806736220597766962009-03-18T12:31:00.000+00:002009-03-18T12:31:00.000+00:00While I understand your reticence to believe in te...While I understand your reticence to believe in teh equity rally, I think you may have picked the wrong technical level to watch - I am more focused on 800 which is recent resistance and 50d MA.JJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09595740377946509519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1073690355147445882009-03-18T12:26:00.000+00:002009-03-18T12:26:00.000+00:00Great solution to the AIG bonus situation. Concern...Great solution to the AIG bonus situation. Concerning the tax consequences Of anonymous @11:35. It would trigger capital losses only AFTER the value of the stock was reported as income at the price of 27.00.Also the income received would be taxed as ordinary income in the year of receipt. When sold if no gains to offset would be limited to a deduction of 3000 a year. People would beg not to get their toxic bonus. Great idea!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57613227500876392372009-03-18T12:03:00.000+00:002009-03-18T12:03:00.000+00:00Inventory is running out. Soon we should going to...Inventory is running out. Soon we should going to see the production pricking up a little. Yes we won't recover since it isn't ending and the consumption will never go back to pre-recession level. But there is some mini-bull in a big bear market.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46436723286124916662009-03-18T11:59:00.000+00:002009-03-18T11:59:00.000+00:00xlnt column!who's this swiss miss CONF1 bond thing...xlnt column!<BR/><BR/>who's this swiss miss CONF1 bond thing breaking out<BR/><BR/>on long bond seasonal chart(US) it starts making a double bottom with april and goes up for rest of year<BR/><BR/>seems like the stock market has come in high on short covering to fomc decision last few times, and sold beginning the morning after, could be coincidence as it sold all the way til a week ago tues.<BR/>-dekeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74822070112611776442009-03-18T11:35:00.000+00:002009-03-18T11:35:00.000+00:00Like the idea of paying comp in AIG stock. However...Like the idea of paying comp in AIG stock. However, and I'm no tax expert, won't this generate significant capital losses that can be used to offset capital gains? Granted, capital gains are quite thin on the ground these days and AIG stock ain't going to pay down the mortgage on the house in Montauk but it still has some "value". The fundamental issue as you point out is how to change the mindset of - "even though the firm lost big time, my own group did OK and therefore I deserve to be paid".<BR/><BR/>Great blog by the way.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16349729342112146342009-03-18T11:27:00.000+00:002009-03-18T11:27:00.000+00:00You commie and your damn left foot! Har, I couldn'...You commie and your damn left foot! <BR/><BR/>Har, I couldn't help but laugh when I saw the news that Geithner would deduct an equivalent sum from the next bailout. The absurdity of it all! You would have to hit their wallets if you actually wanted to inflict some pain. Everybody knows Uncle Sam won't let AIG go under, so whatever funds are necessary will still be forked over. And on top of that Geithner confirms AIG's continued status as a monetary black hole. Ahahahaaaa...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com