tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8187233553640344725..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Seven crap banks failed a crap testMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26594589507290942632010-07-26T19:32:39.716+01:002010-07-26T19:32:39.716+01:00Otto, I think markets are (1) discounting the next...Otto, I think markets are (1) discounting the next 9 months, after which they think things will be better, and (2) are excited by the idea of Republicans winning power, which might be good if campaign speeches matched actions, but in this particular instance will raise the odds of a serious financial crackup as the White House and the Congress struggle over who is in charge of the steering wheel. I would guess that as traders re-think the consequences of divided power, there will be distinctly less enthusiasm. But, as we know, markets always dance up to the edge of the cliff, and usually over, before anyone notices the shifting terrain.<br /><br />--CharlesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20003422747527092412010-07-26T16:51:53.680+01:002010-07-26T16:51:53.680+01:00I do wonder how long this optimism will last. Stoc...I do wonder how long this optimism will last. Stock markets and commodity prices keep heading higher while the US is heading for a distinct slowdown (from already slow growth in Q2). <br /><br />Re: China. <br />It is possible that the recent positive China/commodity rumblings is due to the steel inventory cycle? (see http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&... ) <br />Or are authorities moving away from the brake? Wildly different implications for whether you should belong Australia or long investment goods companies, I guess.<br /><br />A simple recession model based on the ECRI weekly gauge indicate a 20-25% probability of a new US recession right now, while that same gauge indicate another sharp slump in the US manufacturing ISM... I wouldn't be surprised if we have ISM below 50 within a month and a half.Cockadoodledoohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08658921138352027771noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11467547626476612532010-07-26T16:35:38.527+01:002010-07-26T16:35:38.527+01:00I don't blame you at all, this meat grinder ma...I don't blame you at all, this meat grinder market is boring. <br />Enjoy your summer, love the shades ;)Nichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15083151714732237616noreply@blogger.com