tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8147452618738509158..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The Federales arriveMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger81125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57485616625635163102015-02-03T06:57:29.543+00:002015-02-03T06:57:29.543+00:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11708398102654526740noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54743548288074406312015-02-02T20:47:30.918+00:002015-02-02T20:47:30.918+00:00Above, I said:
"Why do you all try to be so ...Above, I said:<br /><br />"Why do you all try to be so clever (and fail)? The BoJ and PBoC are buying EU equities as we speak. The ECB will soon flood Europe with liquidity. The Fed will NEVER significantly raise rates again in your lifetimes.<br />My portfolio is 200% long equities on a 70:30 EU/US mix. I will outperform all of you combined by year end."<br /><br />Well equities are SOARING today - and will continue to SOAR to unparalleled heights - as the WHOLE WORLD goes long. I guess I will outperfom all of you combined by month-end.<br /><br />FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58794627858336252262015-02-02T14:14:46.010+00:002015-02-02T14:14:46.010+00:00A Liberal parliamentarian was quoted leaving the E...A Liberal parliamentarian was quoted leaving the ECB Greek bailout talks as word had it he just decided that talks had been woven decidely beforehand and that any input from himself will only cause more subterfuge behind close doors from ALL parties concern..." within the system of free will, this is a case that never stops giving"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76976181801320144942015-02-02T10:30:09.779+00:002015-02-02T10:30:09.779+00:00The JYen/USD is setting up to blow. Is that eleven...The JYen/USD is setting up to blow. Is that eleven sessions of compression?checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7045292876753969682015-02-02T01:20:29.870+00:002015-02-02T01:20:29.870+00:00@Bruce,
b22 is here:
https://twitter.com/@FatF1n...@Bruce,<br /><br />b22 is here:<br /><br />https://twitter.com/@FatF1nger<br /><br />I-Man here:<br /><br />https://twitter.com/6EproRivernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14890444882651948852015-02-01T18:52:05.494+00:002015-02-01T18:52:05.494+00:00Bruce, I actually meant UPRO rather than UUP ;-)
...Bruce, I actually meant UPRO rather than UUP ;-) <br /><br />I have heard, but not 100% confirmed, that Ben22 is now on Twitter as @FatF1nger. Mainly talking about commodity trading as far as I can tell.<br /><br />I also see Kid Dynamite on Twitter. <br /><br />- WhammerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87517285489207945632015-02-01T13:57:00.126+00:002015-02-01T13:57:00.126+00:00Yes, Whammer, it is good to be back! By the way, ...Yes, Whammer, it is good to be back! By the way, I always have a problem when my wonderful, well- reasoned theory runs in Mr. Market's STUPID reality! (Makes me cranky....!)<br /><br />Where is Ben 22 anyway?Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77718327732470316462015-02-01T13:28:06.798+00:002015-02-01T13:28:06.798+00:00"SELL THE EURO, against the US$ though, thoug..."SELL THE EURO, against the US$ though, though it will recover if there are signs of a deal late next week or the following week. Please note that I am short the Euro against the US$, up to my maximum limit."<br /><br />http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/02/sarkar-on-greece/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81273463831907924762015-02-01T08:25:44.184+00:002015-02-01T08:25:44.184+00:00Holy cow, if Karen shows up, Ben22 and maybe even ...Holy cow, if Karen shows up, Ben22 and maybe even CNBC_Sucks can't be far behind! There are many more folks whose handles I can't quite remember, way back from the Big Picture days ;-) I think CV (not the CV on this site) is probably permanently retired from blog commentary; living off the grid and spending his mound of nickels.<br /><br />Hi also to Bruce from TN -- good to see you again! I would think you rode that UUP bus to the moon by now ;-)<br /><br />- WhammerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66778062219845613482015-02-01T06:26:53.429+00:002015-02-01T06:26:53.429+00:00Greece: a country where dodging taxes is “part of...Greece: a country where dodging taxes is “part of the DNA”. The habit first began as an act of patriotic resistance against Ottoman rule, but the incompetence of successive Greek governments over the generations has given many Greeks an excuse to continue the tradition.<br /><br />Greece owes EU troika creditors a massive £35bn in unpaid taxes.<br /><br />The IMF said in a recent report that wealthy Greeks, along with self-employed professionals such as doctors, dentists and lawyers, continue to evade taxes “on an astonishing scale”.<br /><br />http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11381653/Death-threats-forced-me-to-quit-my-job-says-Greeces-top-tax-man.html<br /><br />Gusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81083419546345873062015-02-01T00:57:57.171+00:002015-02-01T00:57:57.171+00:00Lot of LB fans including this anon..and Karen some...Lot of LB fans including this anon..and Karen somewhere who use to post here too!<br /><br />http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/dollarabove200smahittingresistancejan28.jpgI'm not a robotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8050467582345286182015-02-01T00:06:26.637+00:002015-02-01T00:06:26.637+00:00Fair point about too many anons. Anon 1:05/2:50 wi...Fair point about too many anons. Anon 1:05/2:50 will post, if she ever does again, as "Cha Cha" (as in Muldowney)<br />Cha Cha has read this blog frequently since 2008, and would like to offer a belated thanks for all of the the effort put in here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35554231979773532282015-01-31T16:14:07.223+00:002015-01-31T16:14:07.223+00:00I can't help it. I must comment as a long ter...I can't help it. I must comment as a long term but interested amateur. Why shouldn't we chase yield, or the decline in yield from the long US bond?<br /><br />I own one thing, and it is always the way I've done it..invest in my best idea and work at it...TMF lately. If it doesn't work out, that's the reason God and Lloyd invented stops.<br /><br />Yes, I like to compare irrational but well thought out ideas against my rational but well thought out ideas, (daily!) and see where I have a puncture as the Brits might say..then I change.<br /><br />Lefty, keep us informed!Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65155105420381067512015-01-31T15:52:54.968+00:002015-01-31T15:52:54.968+00:00One hates to lecture punters on the history of Yoo...One hates to lecture punters on the history of Yoorp, but there are some interesting back stories to what is currently playing out with Greece and its chief antagonist, Germany. From the BBC:<br /><br />"For both Syriza and its coalition partner, the centre-right Independent Greeks, the Nazi occupation of their country during World War Two looms large.<br /><br />Syriza wants Germany to repay a loan that the Nazis forced the Bank of Greece to pay during the occupation. That would work out at an estimated €11bn ($12.5bn; £8.2bn) today. The Independent Greeks also want Germany to pay war reparations."<br /><br />This is clever. The Greeks have a long memory of what was a very brutal occupation that is to some extent recapitulated on their beaches and islands every summer. Many Germans are still obsessed with national guilt over WW2, and this will strike a nerve in the national psyche at some level. There is one more thing that Germany would do well to remember, especially Mangler, when she is forced to deal with the Lederhosen-wearing lunatic fringe of the CSU on which some of her power rests.<br /><br />"Syriza wants a European Debt Conference modelled on the London Debt Conference of 1953, when half of Germany's post-World War Two debt was written off, leading to a sharp increase in economic growth. If it happened for Germany, it can happen for Greece, the party argues."<br /><br />This is also extremely clever. Germany was granted debt relief even after years of largely self-inflicted destruction brought on by empire building and genocide. Surely the Greeks deserve some relief from the activity of a rapacious and criminal elite?<br /><br />Germans may be at times stubborn (!) but they are also logical and can be reasonable to a fault when presented with a water-tight argument that benefits all parties involved, which is where this ends.<br /><br />Full disclosure, LB speaks the language, and likes Germany a great deal, even the conservative inhabitants of Bavaria - although a few of them are really out of their minds economically speaking.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73491191882679655862015-01-31T14:21:34.936+00:002015-01-31T14:21:34.936+00:00Yes, please people adopt a colourful handle. It...Yes, please people adopt a colourful handle. It's so much more fun arguing with an entity than seventeen anons who all think one is a Tool.<br /><br />Look, I am not going to comment on bonds any more after this. Here's the thing. I love govies. I have been long USTs (and associated low rate vehicles) for ages and ages, especially when Morgan Stanley et al thought we were going to normalize and go back to a 4% 10y, and it has been the easiest trade of all time. But we all know that there are times when the bond markets are invaded by unnatural leveraged participants and by those fleeing risk. This is one of those times. The yield on US10s isn't ridiculously low, but the yield on German bunds is. The spread arb thus created will remain but when bund yields turn upwards, so will EURUSD and US10s as well. Chasing and owning parabolic vehicles never works out well.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38037290221978490572015-01-31T09:23:09.383+00:002015-01-31T09:23:09.383+00:00Can i ask that anons start to use a name. Just any...Can i ask that anons start to use a name. Just any name but a consistent one. There are some fantastic anon comms but striking up a dialogue or trying to apply understanding of thought trains through multiple comments is hard when anon'd. Would be most helpful. The roll call of MM colourful characters welcomes new names!Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67306223979573648672015-01-31T02:50:36.185+00:002015-01-31T02:50:36.185+00:00FCX can produce oil at low $20's from very wel...FCX can produce oil at low $20's from very well executed ex BP platforms with capital that I think they can prob get, so $50 is Ok $70 is awesome. (Irony would be capital from Chinese butterflies.) CVX is a very long game-actually they're both a long game, but short games are just a diversion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10807447225241259682015-01-31T02:11:27.876+00:002015-01-31T02:11:27.876+00:00On a more serious note anon 1:05 - I see those two...On a more serious note anon 1:05 - I see those two specific names discounting $70 crude and $6500-7000/T copper - so you will be right as long as that happens quickly - just know that's what you are betting on, and be aware of the phrase 'recency bias'.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65976235938390106832015-01-31T02:00:37.048+00:002015-01-31T02:00:37.048+00:00Snap! Yowza!!!
Ma'am - if you have a choice in...Snap! Yowza!!!<br />Ma'am - if you have a choice in the matter please make 'em fucia or magenta - I believe those are the only 2 missing in LB's collection.<br />This board keeps getting more and more fun - MM did I mention I'm glad you got this baby going again??washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42941389238609366812015-01-31T01:05:06.045+00:002015-01-31T01:05:06.045+00:00LB & washed up- the lower the price the lower ...LB & washed up- the lower the price the lower the risk. FCX and CVX con calls made it pretty clear to me that prices are not in alignment with fundamentals. From Chinese hedge funds shorting copper futures in the middle of the night to high cost producers putting down rigs- it's a matter of time. So, to you LB, I toss a pair of virtual girl panties, from one of the apparently? few females who has been hanging out with you guys for years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79060488948682541462015-01-31T00:05:22.755+00:002015-01-31T00:05:22.755+00:00Set aside bund - UST spreads for a New York Minute...Set aside bund - UST spreads for a New York Minute.<br /><br />Who can seriously believe a sustainable top is in on US Treasuries when the retail horde isn't trying to hoard them?Danhttp://nwzpaper.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10702445687248643192015-01-30T22:31:44.144+00:002015-01-30T22:31:44.144+00:00sectors such as restaurant, sporting goods, airlin...sectors such as restaurant, sporting goods, airlines, auto related are still pretty hot in this market. so section rotation works well now, no need to panic about the black bird yet imo Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10612932443788177022015-01-30T22:20:52.519+00:002015-01-30T22:20:52.519+00:00Today was a good tell on market positioning.
Repea...Today was a good tell on market positioning.<br />Repeat after me,<br />"Risk off means commodities up, risk off means commodities up...."<br />Probably a good time to stop tossing around statements like 'we are bullish or bearish equities' - have to be very specific which sectors.<br />As for bonds, we could be seeing trend exhaustion, but its an infinitely saner trade to wait for it to to correct 25-30 bps and get long again as opposed to just waving a red flag at the bull wearing nothing but thongs.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1959734590416339452015-01-30T21:51:27.792+00:002015-01-30T21:51:27.792+00:00@ Left. What to say other than, "haters gonna...@ Left. What to say other than, "haters gonna hate, hate, hate." Your probably all right, just a matter of timing. For me thou 138 was short term top for TLT and I expect the long bond to correct first. Oil even caught a bid and Lord Draghi hasnt even started buying in earnest yet. Give em time they'll see. Coreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28230017853945316432015-01-30T21:47:13.799+00:002015-01-30T21:47:13.799+00:00There s a lot of clever stuff in the comments abov...There s a lot of clever stuff in the comments above. But I think the worlds biggest problem is that people think deflation is recession and inflation is growth. <br /><br />The way the world is positioned at the moment the biggest mind fk would occur if oil went up taking out the headline deflation that policy is muddling with recession. That would cause policy to switch from being wrong on the deflationary side to being wrong on the inflationary side. And THAT will be the real disaster. By comparison what we have now is a picnic.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.com