tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8134213735001410223..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: At $30, the market's still long oil Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger59125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78200185690831854982016-01-21T06:10:51.613+00:002016-01-21T06:10:51.613+00:00Wow! This can be one of the most beneficial blogs ...Wow! This can be one of the most beneficial blogs we have ever come across on the subject. Basically magnificent article! I am also an expert in this topic so I can understand your effort.<a href="http://purodata.com/home/commodity-trading-report/energy-commodity-trading-report/crude-oil-trading-report/" rel="nofollow"> Crude Oil Trading Report </a><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06931275946575016842noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43401510025570299842016-01-20T03:00:47.308+00:002016-01-20T03:00:47.308+00:00Thanks for the thoughts on Italian banks.
MM any ...Thanks for the thoughts on Italian banks.<br /><br />MM any thoughts given to changing the format of the comments/blog. It seems the discussion board is pretty interesting but i was looking in the past and it is very hard to look back in history to find stuff. Just a thought, as I really do enjoy your insightful posts as well as the comments from the peanut galleryabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36976018868172656982016-01-20T02:23:12.836+00:002016-01-20T02:23:12.836+00:00Link above fails. This should be correct: http:/...Link above fails. This should be correct: <a href="http://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/01/07/2016-oil-limits-and-the-end-of-the-debt-supercycle/" rel="nofollow">http://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/01/07/2016-oil-limits-and-the-end-of-the-debt-supercycle/</a>MrBeachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75393457575889268492016-01-20T02:11:29.095+00:002016-01-20T02:11:29.095+00:00One argument for why oil has a lot further to go: ...One argument for why oil has a lot further to go: storage capacity may max out.<br /><br />"I expect that the particular problem we are likely to reach in 2016 is limits to oil storage. This may happen at different times for crude oil and the various types of refined products. As storage fills, prices can be expected to drop to a very low level–less than $10 per barrel for crude oil, and correspondingly low prices for the various types of oil products, such as gasoline, diesel, and asphalt. We can then expect to face a problem with debt defaults, failing banks, and failing governments (especially of oil exporters)."<br />-- <a href="http://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/01/07/2016-oil-limits-and-the-end-of-the-debt-supercycle/%22" rel="nofollow">http://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/01/07/2016-oil-limits-and-the-end-of-the-debt-supercycle/</a><br /><br />MrBeachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13779868650022530732016-01-20T02:05:35.203+00:002016-01-20T02:05:35.203+00:00Well, the expected spiky panic for oil didn't ...Well, the expected spiky panic for oil didn't happen, and now it just seems more likely that it will slowly continue to drip until some real supply shock arrives in the headlines. The potential catalyst called China is out of the way and yawn... still slowing, so no help there. <br /><br />I'm sitting tight on my hands, sold the BP punt and raised some cash with the better price levels today from China exposed EZ equities. Looking at the rear view valuation mirror one might think equities still offer value, but how long can the toppish margins hold with the low growth, low inflation environment? These earnings just feel too good to be true in context of the supposed more or less pitiful macro environment they're operating in. In addition, too many black swan likish crisis looming in EZ and perhaps with the China debt bubble. And this time it feels that it won't be just Greece. Greece was just merely the first one that happened to run out of runway. <br /><br />Really tough environment for any long strategies. Would otherwise run into safe heaven treasuries but USD looks soft, which could potentially just toast all the returns. Even gold not moving and miners still getting toasted. Like many here expected, rate hikes did nothing but flatten the curve.<br /><br />It's just that slowly creeping feeling of a looming recession which makes all conventional activities feel futile. If a US recession happens to coincide within 1-2y just as France, Italy along with their bank complex were getting into deeper trouble anyway, that might result in some very nasty cocktails. But for now lets just see and what Q4 earnings says, a good amount of the potential weakness might already be discounted, for now.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41409452262436047242016-01-20T01:42:21.472+00:002016-01-20T01:42:21.472+00:00A good read about current oil prices: Our Finite ...A good read about current oil prices: <a href="http://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/01/19/why-oil-under-30-per-barrel-is-a-major-problem/" rel="nofollow">Our Finite World: Why oil under $30 per barrel is a major problem</a><br /><br />MrBeachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78811431063596135742016-01-20T01:32:39.268+00:002016-01-20T01:32:39.268+00:00Whatever the underlying truth of the story may be,...Whatever the underlying truth of the story may be, one can rest assured that hyperbole is part of the bedrock of any AEP story in the Torygraph. I'm still waiting for the Chinese to dump Treasuries en masse like he shouted 8-9 years ago; one might have thought that their loss of FX reserves would make this an opportune time to do so...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91030387421423799492016-01-20T01:28:43.189+00:002016-01-20T01:28:43.189+00:00CURRENT DEBT SITUATION WORSE THAN 2007/8, BIS/OECD...CURRENT DEBT SITUATION WORSE THAN 2007/8, BIS/OECD WARNS OF EUROPE BANKING MELTDOWN:<br /><br />http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80020384310844786862016-01-20T00:38:19.825+00:002016-01-20T00:38:19.825+00:00We would suggest caution in shorting sovereign bon...We would suggest caution in shorting sovereign bonds, other than for brief swing trades. They are all Widowmakers now.<br /><br />Let's see if we can string together a few days without TEOTWAWKI and then we can count bulls and bears again. One day at a time and we'll see how long it is before the vol sellers set up their stalls again and start to ply their filthy trade. We did nothing but watch today and that's going to go on for a while...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56283802113256121402016-01-19T23:54:54.222+00:002016-01-19T23:54:54.222+00:00Abee
Italian banks are the darling of smart money...Abee<br /><br />Italian banks are the darling of smart money and they have been known to be dumped mercilessly as soon as they get out of flavor. The big (idiotic) play was on moron Renzii getting all he wants from uber sharp Draghi because you know cazzo, they are both italians. This isnas dumb as it gets but incaught some really sharp Italians friends punting alike.<br /><br />Except Draghi cannot stand that provincial opportunistic serial liar who by the way has already deceived 70% of the populace. MIT Draghi is Roman royalty, Tuscans always get on the nerves of Romans especially the Florentine pogen varietyNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45747531859100427602016-01-19T22:19:32.338+00:002016-01-19T22:19:32.338+00:00AL & CV - btp - it's one of those obvious ...AL & CV - btp - it's one of those obvious things. The yield is too damn low. But Draghi. It's the same for OATS,while not Italy, even after Hollande's langauge about the state of the economy yesterday. And the bankers at that BNP event last week discussing the very risks of the periphery. Need someone big to knock those yields up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19582510569117168982016-01-19T21:30:20.073+00:002016-01-19T21:30:20.073+00:00@ CV
BTPs are certainly overexposed in case of an ...@ CV<br />BTPs are certainly overexposed in case of an Italian banking crisis, and most likely overowned currently. At 1,55ish yield I find it difficult to see much upside in price from here .... Unless of course you see Dr.Aghi taking out the bazooka on Thursday. And even then, any spike could be temporary.ALnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84160074230171227802016-01-19T21:25:36.827+00:002016-01-19T21:25:36.827+00:00@anon 9:13 - an equity bull party? Looks more like...@anon 9:13 - an equity bull party? Looks more like a wake..<br />Why so serious, bears? Everything is going your way for the first time since 2011 - enjoy!<br />Sitting on my hands with my thumb up my butt never felt better.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61011897184672356272016-01-19T21:13:29.814+00:002016-01-19T21:13:29.814+00:00Not to be a downer on the equity bull party, but S...Not to be a downer on the equity bull party, but Saudi said this afternoon they intend to acquire a nuclear weapon (against Iran's nuke development). Oh, and expect more bad news from EZ banks... enjoy !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1031809469158282772016-01-19T21:11:00.807+00:002016-01-19T21:11:00.807+00:00"you have to play BTPs on the short side &quo..."you have to play BTPs on the short side "<br /><br />Widow maker in my view, but be my guest. Play it in the markets that matter ... U.S. energy bankruptcies, EU, EM etc. Overexposed overowned names etc. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69883855228891935392016-01-19T20:55:29.561+00:002016-01-19T20:55:29.561+00:00A lot of the massive move in Italian banks can be ...A lot of the massive move in Italian banks can be probably explained by the recent verbal fight between the Italian PM and his cabinet and the European Union. This has raised doubts about a swift resolution on a creation of a bad bank in Italy approved by the European authorities. Such vehicle is badly needed for the weakest banks and the prospects of not having one is a clear negative. Add to this a good deal of rumours about inquiries by the ECB on the valuation on NPLs, positioning by hot money and you have a perfect mix for a 40/50 % correction in a matter of couple of weeks.<br />Now, if Nico is right about Italian banks, you have to play BTPs on the short side (which by the way has been surprisingly calm while banks were collapsing). If, on the contrary, you believe that the banking system is today in a much better position it was only a couple of years ago, some names trading at P/TE below 0.30 are very attractive. ALnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42652951154823666982016-01-19T20:37:03.537+00:002016-01-19T20:37:03.537+00:00CV - if there's been a psychological change in...CV - if there's been a psychological change in the market and how participants perceive events unfolding. The short run will be rapid. Portuguese system is in collapse mode. Market is worried about who is exposed to HY oil. Anglo Irish bank was a small one and it pretty much brought down the Irish system due to its exposures. <br /><br />The butterfly effect etc.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58651285485381181952016-01-19T20:27:43.966+00:002016-01-19T20:27:43.966+00:00MM do you have any thoughts on USDHKD? You brought...MM do you have any thoughts on USDHKD? You brought it to attention the last time hkd swaps moved sharply right. USDHKD spot was 7.82 paid and 1y swaps are over +500 bringing the outrights way above 7.85Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26338889274132606912016-01-19T20:26:52.981+00:002016-01-19T20:26:52.981+00:00EZ banks are wardens of the state ... and the BRRD...EZ banks are wardens of the state ... and the BRRD allows bail-in of creditors and equity holders. It won't be fun, but this only counts for the small banks. The big ones will be saved, one way or the other, if it comes to that. Note here, though, that this is NOT 2012 ... Italy's banks are protected by domestic savings and an external surplus. The equity can go down, but it won't be a big blow up in the short run. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35800143375923339342016-01-19T20:18:53.986+00:002016-01-19T20:18:53.986+00:00The problem with a lot of European banks is they w...The problem with a lot of European banks is they were making a good yield on periphery bonds when the ECB had their backs without bothering to lend (because they couldn't). Now the ECB has gifted them strong asset appreciation BUT...taken away their future earnings due to collapsed yields. SO.....if they don't lend, and can't get any new yield...what do they do to earn? They can't take on more loans when they have such high non performing ones already. But this was brushed under the carpet. <br /><br />Looks like it's all coming out SOON. And, when a run goes on them, they will have to dump their bonds. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89607850767965900492016-01-19T20:06:20.909+00:002016-01-19T20:06:20.909+00:00Cheers for the Iti- bank heads up. Here is a chart...Cheers for the Iti- bank heads up. Here is a chart of Monte dei paschi's subs. ouch http://imgur.com/2Yn6gkA<br /><br />I'm not an expert, so please correct me, but I dont really see what has changed with the itilian banks? Its not like they havent been under regulatory review for the past 3 years in terms of capital, provisioning. Sure the delay in creating a bad bank isnt positive but hardly a reason to kill the bonds. So now the markets are assuming there will be a banking crisis in Italy? What new news came out? Unlike greek banks Itilian banks generally have OK capital. <br /><br />I dont have any real positions in this so its more curiosity. Views appreciated.<br /><br />Amps, welcome back. Please do let me know who/what you buy your stash from, bc whatever you are taking it must be good ;-) abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32767295798747646112016-01-19T19:51:38.778+00:002016-01-19T19:51:38.778+00:00anonymous 7:44, be sure to hit Starbucks and grab ...anonymous 7:44, be sure to hit Starbucks and grab yourself a Grande. amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54810280317817369372016-01-19T19:44:10.378+00:002016-01-19T19:44:10.378+00:00Amp, reading your incoherent bubble left a bad tas...Amp, reading your incoherent bubble left a bad taste in my mouth, gonna have to drink another espresso just to get rid of it. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13136868758923529482016-01-19T19:40:49.196+00:002016-01-19T19:40:49.196+00:00for what it's worth there is a monster bullish...for what it's worth there is a monster bullish divergence shown in Eurostoxx beanchmark futures<br /><br />why are people still surprised that PIGS are bankrupt is beyond me. Have you seen Greek bank index losing 95% since October? Italian or Spanish banks are no different, never to be touch with Serguey Bubka's poleNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6823252558528015502016-01-19T19:33:53.244+00:002016-01-19T19:33:53.244+00:00+1
Bingo MM+1<br /><br />Bingo MMNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.com