tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8027734723457514756..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Demerging emerging, me old ChinaMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54979390711436902642011-02-10T12:05:12.868+00:002011-02-10T12:05:12.868+00:00So the Germans get the NYSE but lose the ECB chair...So the Germans get the NYSE but lose the ECB chairmanship... How about we get to keep the NYSE and export Bernanke to the ECB in exchange? Deal?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17478588976206216952011-02-09T23:45:45.892+00:002011-02-09T23:45:45.892+00:00indonesia stocks resistant and good value? histori...indonesia stocks resistant and good value? historicalky that doesn't make sense, but if one compares to S&P forward PEs then maybe. But me thinks it just another aspect of you folks risk-on trade, commodities up with risk-on trade spilling over to Indonesia; Indenesia has been for 2 years the hedgies favorite playground (besides the field trip to bangcock) and its really amazing you folks are still sucking up for more, nothing really has changed except its more corrupt than ever and islam fundamentalism is stronger than before and suharto's chidren are in the background replaced by some others, a few million rupiahs still buy a licence to most aspects of commerce, sure commodities are 3x their old prices, but how long will this last? good like friend, see you in a year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43198522031054659962011-02-09T11:14:37.324+00:002011-02-09T11:14:37.324+00:00Darth weber no more--- any thoughts?
my bet is th...Darth weber no more--- any thoughts?<br /><br />my bet is that he is going to a big (non-central) bank based in Frankfurt..Salmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17436270791028971452011-02-09T01:01:27.151+00:002011-02-09T01:01:27.151+00:00After some 7 hikes, RBI behind the curve? Think n...After some 7 hikes, RBI behind the curve? Think not. Liquidity is tight on the ground; look at the real estate vols if you are not convinced. Inflation is driven by rising commodity prices which is more of a global issue rather than a local one. That unfortunately will solved only when the western CBs abandon their loose monetary policy.Anishnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69956816076746756412011-02-08T21:14:22.369+00:002011-02-08T21:14:22.369+00:00anon 2.59.....There was a certain eur\x late last ...anon 2.59.....There was a certain eur\x late last year building up steam until our euro mare veered off at the corner, my guess is, that, they now know that they need to put a slug in it's ass (it bigger brother) from the grandstand whenever it starts to strengthen out.<br /><br />That makes those fx yield model difficult to trust in the spot market.<br /><br />I hear the Russell is bubbling at around P\E x30 , very exhausted, TMM,like yourself, but I'm out of the Dow now,I'll just kick around fxland waiting to bash Betty now.<br /><br />Wish me luck.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11882601304613626929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74458763749240291942011-02-08T16:22:34.152+00:002011-02-08T16:22:34.152+00:00My DM v EM Scenario involves a breakdown in EMs, a...My DM v EM Scenario involves a breakdown in EMs, a concomitant dollar rally and a necessary correction in commodities that drags down a significant part of the US market as well. Then instead of the usual reflex JBTFD in China and copper, undervalued US large caps are the beneficiaries.<br /><br />I really can't see a smooth rotation small cap to large cap without the occurrence of some temporary equity flow discontinuities, formerly referred to as the market going down a bit.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73495943294706021522011-02-08T15:22:50.365+00:002011-02-08T15:22:50.365+00:00Euro flattish, gold spiking... It's all coming...Euro flattish, gold spiking... It's all coming together.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45084661345190411492011-02-08T14:59:29.475+00:002011-02-08T14:59:29.475+00:00Tend to agree DM vs EM equities. However having 10...Tend to agree DM vs EM equities. However having 10-20% retracement in china, brazil and turkey on valuation concerns. In the context of 5-10% nominal gdp growth and recovery thesis in US + selling of risk premia on europe should IMHO aime it slightly than par close yoy. DM equities - no valuation concerns here and given how bearish market still is we could have further grind probably 10-25% yoy. Think gold here is a good buy against last month lows. Metals/energy think is on instrument per instrument basis. Crude here is blown up and could be good pieces to pick-up. Just look at cracks vs flat price spreads. Something has to give for things to come back in line. In FX - maybe the year of eur crosses recovery. Just maybe. USDJPY is a whole other issue - how about US FI flatteners vs long usdjpy ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com