tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7944509490644580444..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: 2008: The year of....?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58474375328773051932008-03-03T18:03:00.000+00:002008-03-03T18:03:00.000+00:00Speaking of cows...see:www.tradingwellandliving.bl...Speaking of cows...<BR/>see:<BR/>www.tradingwellandliving.blogspot.comCharles Longfellowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14306791899792230047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63064389033476631162008-03-03T16:14:00.000+00:002008-03-03T16:14:00.000+00:00That's a deal - I'll be in the prompt-box remindin...That's a deal - I'll be in the prompt-box reminding you your own posts and comments. You know, my grandpa spent his whole life working as a proof-reader in a small publishing house…<BR/><BR/>Have a nice trip back home, ATAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-290389796935271182008-03-03T15:37:00.000+00:002008-03-03T15:37:00.000+00:00No, nothing serious...quite the contrary, actually...No, nothing serious...quite the contrary, actually.<BR/><BR/>Yes, point taken on the gold issue...I would say that the greatest self-criticism that I would level this year is largely missing the boat on the dollar down move...and I'd count the gold rally as part of that family of trades. <BR/><BR/>I suppose as justification, I'd say that the dollar has not been the big story this year- it's remained equities and credit, with the dollar as a second- or third- order trade.<BR/><BR/>So in concentrating on stocks and bonds, I have indeed paid an opportunity cost in not selling the buck. Next time, make sure you remind me of this stuff a bit earlier! ;)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88111696913128574802008-03-03T15:13:00.000+00:002008-03-03T15:13:00.000+00:00Nothing serious, I hope…Anyway, “reasonably satisf...Nothing serious, I hope…<BR/><BR/>Anyway, “reasonably satisfied” sounds kind of an euphemism to me - yearly returns consistently between 15% and 20% and limited drawdowns (as your blog portfolio always had from its inception) are something great. I really think you should begin considering the idea of becoming your own boss, pal!<BR/><BR/>A few months ago, when gold moved a few inches below $800, you happened to write (in the comments section) that you’d rather wait until gold go back up in the $850 area and then go long with $1000 as a target, but you never follow suit. Why? As a paper-trader, I toyed selling some puts on gold back then and on silver early in January and – as you once wrote of the dollar – they are now toast.<BR/><BR/>If you were Luke Skywalker, this comment should end with something like “leave your beta behind and follow your alpha”, but I’m not Obi Wan Kenobi…<BR/><BR/>ATAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85978099597115026372008-03-03T13:37:00.000+00:002008-03-03T13:37:00.000+00:00Anon # 1: I am a bigger believer in Milankovitch ...Anon # 1: I am a bigger believer in Milankovitch cycles than Kondratiev cycles...in any event, concepts like Dow/Gold rations over long term horizons are pretty spurious in my view, for reasons articulated <A HREF="http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2007/05/cornflakes-without-milk.html" REL="nofollow">here</A>.<BR/><BR/>Vlade...my impression is they were still short the subprime crap..but had always been long the high quality MBS as a hedge. The problem is that the subprime stuff had fallen so far that asymptotic considerations came into play (i.e., price can only go to zero), while there was much more room for the high quality stuff to fall in price...which it duly did. Their greater error was thinkiing that the credit crunch somehow didn't apply to them...<BR/><BR/>CV, the BOJ intervened plenty before ZIRP, so I really don't think it's that big of a consideration. The political angle is much more important, IMHO.<BR/><BR/>AT, well spotted. Something <I>has</I> changed in the last few weeks, though at this point I can't really say anything about it. Suffice to say, though, that while I may have made more of this volatility last year, I am reasonably satisfied with the blog portfolio performance this year, and consider that it has done its job.<BR/><BR/>(And yes, I've seen silver...and I thought it <I>was</I> rather Zen not to beat myself up about completely pissing away a huge potential profit!)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20420117325838999942008-03-03T13:12:00.000+00:002008-03-03T13:12:00.000+00:003,35% ytd… not bad, pal! Your pace is between 15% ...3,35% ytd… not bad, pal! Your pace is between 15% and 20% by year end, after last year’s 16.52% - you’re more than a diesel engine than a macro manager!<BR/><BR/>Joking aside, you definitely need to recoup a Zen-like state of mind, since it seems to me that you‘ve been a bit self-absorbed and abstracted in these last weeks. I mean, the way you managed the January silver trade, the little mess you did with the USD/JPY trades and a bit of impatience while opening the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP trades… Your views have proven correct most of the time, which is good, but timing and money management have not been up to prior standards (did you happen to take a look at SIH8 after you closed the trade?). <BR/><BR/>You know you could have done much better, pal! Come on, MM… you’ll never walk alone!<BR/><BR/>Read you later, ATAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90465777761487999022008-03-03T12:56:00.000+00:002008-03-03T12:56:00.000+00:00Hi MM, As always, some very apt observations. From...Hi MM, <BR/><BR/>As always, some very apt observations. From my desk I have of course also been pretty amazed by the USD/YEN. 102 and counting. I wonder whether the MOF is itching to move in although I have to say that I have changed my mind a bit on the whole intervention issue after having a talk with a guy in the comment section over at the Japan Economy Watch. The argument is summarised <BR/><A HREF="http://clausvistesen.squarespace.com/alphasources-blog/2008/2/14/qa-on-japan.html" REL="nofollow">here</A> . <BR/><BR/>Basically, this guy is saying that absent of ZIRP it is 'too' expensive (i.e. 160% debt to GDP ratio etc) for them to intervene since they have to issue debt to buy up USD or any other currency. I had not thought about this before. However, I really don't know whether the argument has merit in practice. <BR/><BR/>In any case, the pounding of the USD continues and the low yielders (Swiss and Yen) outperform just about anything out there. So, this is the risk aversion/sentiment play being taken to the max it seems. My only question here would be, how long before we see the 'Dollar smile', if at all? <BR/><BR/>Oh, and one last thing everybody, watch the HUF. Any long exposure to this one needs to be reviewed I think.*<BR/><BR/>Claus<BR/><BR/>*please note that I am trying to confirm my own predictions with this one in the sense that I think (and have argued) that Eastern Europe is pretty vulnerable. But I do think that all this market turmoil will end up in Eastern Europe some way or the other and Hungary (after lifting the trading band) now seems to be a sitting duck.CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78034812849162640682008-03-03T11:33:00.000+00:002008-03-03T11:33:00.000+00:00sufficient leverage....u do have a way with words....sufficient leverage....u do have a way with words...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41038201183025576982008-03-03T11:31:00.000+00:002008-03-03T11:31:00.000+00:00I thought Peloton tanked because they switched the...I thought Peloton tanked because they switched their exposure from short subprime to long high-quality MBS early this year - but that tanked too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79334182093900445922008-03-03T10:54:00.000+00:002008-03-03T10:54:00.000+00:00without sounding too doom and gloom have you read ...without sounding too doom and gloom have you read much on the kondratiev cycles...a favourite of many gold junkies (who have been right since the dot com bust) that real returns till the end of 2010 will be from one position. ie, long gold/short us stocks..roughly till the dow/gold ratio gets to about 12 stocks will keep falling and gold will keep rallying. the macro dynamics support this trade even though it has come a long way it feels like we are about to get a thumping on stocks in the us..as black hawn ben fires up the choppers and the mobile printing press.....have a look at this guy anyway http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/cycle.html<BR/>can you really see the fed cutting to 1.75 as indicated by FF futures...definately time for the Eurpoeans to get out the rate cut calendar..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com