tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post787726182195761634..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: European Inflation Breakevens Show...US Tax Reform Not Priced In?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47242365984926630832021-04-21T08:45:20.962+01:002021-04-21T08:45:20.962+01:00highlighted 5y5y breaks--which have purportedly in...highlighted 5y5y breaks--which have purportedly increased<br /><a href="https://moviehotreview.wordpress.com/" rel="nofollow">รีวิวหนังใหม่</a><br /><a href="https://nung2uhd.com/" rel="nofollow">ดูหนังฟรีออนไลน์</a>Pattaxoxonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55653143402577377452019-06-13T13:12:04.289+01:002019-06-13T13:12:04.289+01:00Making a changing environment to set a right taken...Making a changing environment to set a right taken for a amazon review to take care.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.starindiaresearch.com/ncdextips" rel="nofollow">NCDEX Tips</a><br /><a href="https://www.starindiaresearch.com/stockcashtips" rel="nofollow">Stock Cash Tips</a>StarIndia Equity Tipshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07754717459485620127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24625489479688079312017-10-30T12:05:11.971+00:002017-10-30T12:05:11.971+00:00In this competitive market its important to have a...In this competitive market its important to have a good wages to improve the life with better understanding and a right changing formation.<br /><br /><br /><a href="https://www.starindiaresearch.com/stock-cash-tips.php" rel="nofollow">Stock Cash Tips</a><br /><a href="https://www.starindiaresearch.com/mcx-tips.php" rel="nofollow">MCX Market Tips</a><br />StarIndia Equity Tipshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07754717459485620127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33801370609509402422017-10-30T04:47:29.284+00:002017-10-30T04:47:29.284+00:00@amps, well said...HF culture is good for a couple...@amps, well said...HF culture is good for a couple of things, and absolutely caustic for a number of others. <br /><br />@shane, about twenty posts back...Zuma has to go. reversal comes as the probability or reality of that increases--but as I highlight in today's post, if simply "nothing happens"....like anywhere....the carry junkies can't stay away. EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64384860788659331982017-10-29T09:30:11.601+00:002017-10-29T09:30:11.601+00:00@Johnno what do you think of Josh's piece? It&...@Johnno what do you think of Josh's piece? It's good, but I'm not so sure its desperation buying as much as it is zombie buying. Or, who knows maybe it is terror or desperation buying. All I know is when a person does a thing over and over again while expecting different results they are deemed insane. We have been infected with a kind of self deprecating schema. Accepting this premise it's easy to understand why people exhibit herd behavior at the peak of market hysteria. Or why we blindly follow and trust the current gaggle of cult like tech CEO's. Americans went from espousing ideas like "manifest destiny" or "American exceptionalism" to vociferating Marxist ideology and American hierarchical privilege in only 125 years. Something powerful must have happened. The struggle continues...<br /><br />@ampswasinthehouse<br /><br />First off, I agree FUCK BENCHMARKS BRO. HFM or PM (IMO) should be judged on return per unit of risk if you have to have a touchstone. I come from a unique background and have been thinking about market structure for years. Sounds like your getting out of markets in an institutional sense anyways? To each is own man, hope you end up doing well. My goal in this business is to grow the world's accumulated capital stock to levels where we can continue to innovate, evolve, and create. Make America great again you say? Well first, we have to make her rich and abundant again.<br /><br />I have enormous respect for the men who came before me in finance. I just hope, at the end of the day, I remain enthralled with my profession and continue to be fiercely competitive with my colleagues. An old man back home used to say lovingly that I was born full of "piss and vinegar." He said I should take it as a compliment. "Being a fighter is always a good thing." He was old school as hell. Confidence in yourself and a REAL love for global macro (IMO and experience) are key to a manager's success. Don't go crazy trading by yourself homie. and keep hustling. <br /><br />Hemingway pens a decent stanza in his short story "The Snows of Kilimanjaro" Hemingway was a genius at highlighting the merits of struggle. In particular below he talks about a guy who became so focused on the money that he lost his soul and therefore his ability to make that money in the first place. It helps me with perspective.<br /><br />"it was not so much that he had lied as that there was no truth to tell. He had had his life and it was over and then he went on living it again, with different people and more money…” Here is the broken man, the man who has fallen from grace, the man who has shorn himself of dignity. He has given up on life and work, and consequently, love. He has tried to start again and “burn the fat off his soul” by retraining to write, like a boxer works fat off his body. But he ceases to aim for truth, and thus his life has become meaningless and enervated."<br /><br />sdot54https://www.blogger.com/profile/15849714548471331301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29401039458235142492017-10-29T03:24:02.191+00:002017-10-29T03:24:02.191+00:00@Shane "I think I'm the rook on the blog&...@Shane "I think I'm the rook on the blog"<br /><br />Your honesty is welcomed. My trading future has veered completely in the last 12 months. My reckoning is that if your coming into the trading sphere at my age, than you really have to admit to yourself that moving into a hedge fund environment is not going to work. After studying this market since the GFC you would have noticed that the sound traders never went all in on the short side at any stage. They took runs up, and took short runs down with the occasional loss. The wall street bloggers , and tip sheets are a great source for outsiders looking for how the street thinks and trades if your coming straight out of uni and looking for a spot on a desk. But if your looking into the future to have something solid to work with in the trading market, and have a life ,you need something you can control and make a living from. You need to separate your self from the wall street crowd altogether even if it means taking the chance of falling flat on your face when not taking the secure salary. I bet to win, not make benchmark hurdles. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31478096726303085772017-10-28T23:39:47.509+01:002017-10-28T23:39:47.509+01:00My "anxiety bubble" not an original thou...My "anxiety bubble" not an original thought, it turns out: http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/10/16/just-own-the-damn-robots/johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52621534163306876042017-10-28T20:33:29.585+01:002017-10-28T20:33:29.585+01:00@Shane, agree, Russia has a lot to lose as the tal...@Shane, agree, Russia has a lot to lose as the talks about the new pipelines to China have stalled (still have the big one coming though). It also looks like a sizable delegation from our nat gas companies will be joining Trump on the China trip but I don't know if that changes anything in the short term unless major contracts are signed. When XI stopped by in Alaska I am sure it was not only for sightseeing. Something is brewing there but I suspect it was also held up until Trump's visit. Can the big guy close one already? I am being a bit selfish here ;)<br /> <br />We do have a big push into Europe in the works, that's a punch below Russia's belt for sure but it's too nascent to push the market either way in the short term. Mexico is the one to worry about though but probably not until Trump decides to throw NAFTA completely out (some say he simply can't single-handedly). That one will hurt like a bitch and immediately.<br /><br />All this being said, traders are myopic and it's all about the sustainable cold in US now. They looked at 10-day forecast and pulled the bids. I don't like Dec contact going below $3 and especially staying here for too long. I don't want any memory here at all. Let's get it back above that psychological and technical level and have shorties chase. Easier said than done. It is certainly defying the good news here: supplies are the tightest since 2014, rig count is down four weeks in a row, of course being weighed down by producers talking about uncertain 2018 (probably due to NAFTA) and everyone is now scared of this winter being a possible repeat of last. All conditions are conducive of an upcoming squeeze as soon as the cold weather is here to stay. Gotta be patient, I guess.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71754127206638086432017-10-28T13:21:56.464+01:002017-10-28T13:21:56.464+01:00Right on, well again I meant no disrespect to anyo...Right on, well again I meant no disrespect to anyone. Just trying to learn ropes of decorum. Not sure why we didn't bring the dollar up again. I'm going long the dollar big bt for a while also...so with my personal time frame I'm not to concerned with intraday handles (for the most part) <br /><br />I got worked over bc I was early to trade Natural gas strength last week....sucked so currently Im waiting on it to run...@IPA It's cold in the northern half of the US now....actually crazy cold...thoughts on Nat Gas getting a bid. Also Russia sent a huge brand new LNG refrigerator barge to China...as a gift. My guess is Russia is sending the US a little warning to not try and fuck around in their Nat Gas monopoly...They heard China say that party leaders wanted to look into importing LNG. Might start heating up...sdot54https://www.blogger.com/profile/15849714548471331301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54042920745744056082017-10-28T12:37:15.812+01:002017-10-28T12:37:15.812+01:00No worries. I like your thoughts, just found it st...No worries. I like your thoughts, just found it strange that you didn't mention it that's all.<br />I'm Happy to admit when I am wrong and take the loss. <br /><br />Skrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26489152058251746952017-10-28T12:13:36.082+01:002017-10-28T12:13:36.082+01:00I think I'm the rook on the blog. This is as g...I think I'm the rook on the blog. This is as good of place as any to ask this. Like, I see dudes swoop in and say some completely random shit...almost like their yelling about past drama on the thread...anyone help me out with that? I've seen some of the competition that can flare up on threads and I get that completely. Shit, I fucking love that about this blog, but my question is sometimes....like (for example) @IPA, did you just get called out for mentioning DXY resistance handles? You trade on your own conviction...then you own it. Now if you were like getting an advising fee, okay I see why ol boy might be a little pissed, but otherwise, I'm a bit perplexed. I have an opinion on a big market move so I'm going to announce it anyways, lol (blogger beware not investment advice) ;).... I'm not trying to be disrespectful at all....actually the opposite. I'm the young guy trying be to b deferential to the long time members...<br /><br />All that aside, here is my call going forward. If your positioned for short vol/carry trades you might watch out. It's all about liquidity. So if you think liquidity is here forever then your implicitly short vol (IMO) If you are like me and are long dollar, commodities, short the front end of treasury curve, so essentially long VOL then in the next month or so it might be worth setting up h a large and long volatility position.<br /><br />If anyone is interested I can give you a run down of my reasoning for my conviction in this trade, but it's a long response so I figured I wouldn't take time to write all down.<br /><br />Just get long the dollar, but the timing is critical. Full disclosure I'm still willing to dabble in the long EM carry strategies, but I'm starting to be more selective because I think dollar liquidity is about to dry up. Alright I'm signing off for the weekend...looking forward to Astros Dodgers game 4-5...sdot54https://www.blogger.com/profile/15849714548471331301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58392789898331551112017-10-28T11:14:15.723+01:002017-10-28T11:14:15.723+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.sdot54https://www.blogger.com/profile/15849714548471331301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48827153054023241502017-10-28T09:02:55.410+01:002017-10-28T09:02:55.410+01:00So you had a successful trade, I am happy for you....So you had a successful trade, I am happy for you. I am here a bit more often and may have called more than a few myself. You are totally welcome to skip over my posts. Really, no big deal. I admit when I am wrong as well. All in real time, right here. No need to keep a scorecard. I remember you were buying a level on DXY that did not hold by more than a few big handles. It's all good. Peace, man...IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39083270714246816382017-10-28T07:25:30.220+01:002017-10-28T07:25:30.220+01:00Re:DXY
WTF? How many posts did you spout out "...Re:DXY<br />WTF? How many posts did you spout out "94" was the resistance that would hold. Keep it real man! Skrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24530665244120303782017-10-28T07:20:49.278+01:002017-10-28T07:20:49.278+01:00Leftback, I got ridiculed two years ago when I did...Leftback, I got ridiculed two years ago when I did research on catalonia. I Still hold the conviction that this is the make or break point of the EU (research was done before Brexit). Imagine if you will, sitting in your armchair smoking your pipe, many years from now replying to your grandkids questions of how the union broke up. I suspect the answer will be along the lines of "they stood by the side lines and watched civil rights and democracy get destroyed, and 10/15 years later many many ordinary folk no longer wanted to be part of such an institution". Skrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22554058206882805472017-10-27T23:57:02.578+01:002017-10-27T23:57:02.578+01:00No, I see where your coming from Johnno. I was jus...No, I see where your coming from Johnno. I was just pretty convinced by my research. I'm always looking for constructive criticism...its how I learn. I think it might be more of a dollar strength thing than a total CAD weakness thing...does that make sense? I think Canada has some issues to deal with, but I think its more dollar bullish within the pair than anything for me. <br /><br />Shawn, I like your take. I just wish I knew more about like a timing thing. Meaning I agree it's (ZAR) "been done had it's ass beat" the last two weeks. So looking for the bottom makes sense. However, what is the catalyst for positive developments or news in South Africa. What's the probabilities for continued dollar strengthening and then for South African reform? Even if reform happens...question is when? I've heard of stories bout South Africa and the greater continent's severe food shortage, lack of farming, lack of planning for agriculture etc. That's a risk that could last months, years, or maybe longer.<br /><br />Sorry just running through everything on my mind before I hang it up tonight guys...mind's all over right now.<br /><br />P.S. though the Pacific/India/Africa population boom is going to literally test humanities abilities to create capital. Another possible 4 billion people globally in 15 years???? I mean that's dystopic. <br />US farmers will be the people they look to TRY and feed the world. They're the next 50 years billionaires, IMO.<br />Johnno, do you know of my guy Mr. H Wilmore? (don't want to bust out his real name here). He writes at oldschoolmacro.com. He hit me up a few weeks ago and agree's completely with me. I'm working on getting rough estimations and commitments (in terms of costs) to actually buy part or all of the production process within Ag/livestock industries. I bring him up because I thought I've seen you talk to him....could be a different person though.sdot54https://www.blogger.com/profile/15849714548471331301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28992896489060632292017-10-27T23:07:39.926+01:002017-10-27T23:07:39.926+01:00My trades nothing to fear, Shane. Could very easil...My trades nothing to fear, Shane. Could very easily be wrong.johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11985546713651594702017-10-27T22:38:34.134+01:002017-10-27T22:38:34.134+01:00Where's Catalonia's Nicola Sturgeon? sigh....Where's Catalonia's Nicola Sturgeon? sigh. <br /><br />I'll drop a quick post on high beta EMFX over the weekend, really in reference to their underperformance, one broken down between 1) oil importers/exporters (predicable), Asian export powerhouses (and building reserves) and 2) idiosyncratic risks. ZAR loses on both #1 and 3--and has taken a significant beating in terms of trade as ZAR depreciates and oil prices rise. That being said it is the currency people love to hate...unless local/political risks deteriorate or EMFX *really* goes down the rabbit hole, I'm not sure whats left there. Bottom feeders are going to look for signs this will instead be a catalyst to finally run Zuma and his cronies out of town. EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91174033966132865542017-10-27T22:22:31.391+01:002017-10-27T22:22:31.391+01:00You're shorting USD/CAD? To each his own...I&#...You're shorting USD/CAD? To each his own...I'm a humble dude. I've been wrong before. <br /><br />I love your call with BRL/ZAR I don't have a position, but I'm thinking about it. Straight long USD/ZAR is just uncomfortable for me. Looking deeper into SA's problems. Maybe I'll feel more sure about my conviction in a few weeks. sdot54https://www.blogger.com/profile/15849714548471331301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38454642936263223842017-10-27T21:30:02.604+01:002017-10-27T21:30:02.604+01:00Hardly a strong view, but shorted some USDCAD toda...Hardly a strong view, but shorted some USDCAD today. Positioning still scary, but guessing this doesn't get more expensive versus model unless narrative really shifts. BoC is a forward-looking bank that believes its inflation model, so I don't see the narrative changing so drastically on account of Wednesday's "caution" remarks. Could easily be wrong and even if right, there's probably a much cleverer trade to be done in options, but ...johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34916511985342329102017-10-27T20:40:32.183+01:002017-10-27T20:40:32.183+01:00I'm pretty sanguine on the Catalonia risk. Ins...I'm pretty sanguine on the Catalonia risk. Instant economic suicide, so I don't see it happening. And just look at Puigdemont. Not the picture of a charismatic leader to lead people into certain doom. Of course, there's BoJo and Michael Gove leading Brexit as a fresh counter-example to my flippant remark.<br /><br />I trade ZAR now and then but haven't been focused of late. Gigaba fumbled the budget, so I'm guessing market is starting to price a downgrade and outflows. Bigger picture is ANC is corrupt, divided, and unpredictable, and SOEs are a bleed on country's finances. But terms of trade have improved (China) and the country's debt is mostly local-currency denominated. With Powell likely announced soon and risk sentiment still strong heading into the usually bullish November, not to mention US rates now more sensibly priced than in Sep, I'm not sure I'd look to go outright long USDZAR, but long BRLZAR maybe interesting ...<br /><br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66784451917311790792017-10-27T18:47:18.964+01:002017-10-27T18:47:18.964+01:00So with Catalonia popping off in full effect this ...So with Catalonia popping off in full effect this weekend anyone looking to short periphery sovereigns or maybe Spanish banks (Santander) Bunds and treasuries are the obvious longs...just curious. Also anyone on the thread fuck around with USD/ZAR? I'm a bit unfamiliar with the details in South Africa....I know the story, but I don't have any kind of unique insight into SA politics to take a chance just yet... sdot54https://www.blogger.com/profile/15849714548471331301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16613304754652760632017-10-27T18:44:49.120+01:002017-10-27T18:44:49.120+01:00Oh my, it's that time again. AMZN to new high ...Oh my, it's that time again. AMZN to new high and no stopping this tech train. I stepped aside and chose a quick bullet in the head vs a death by a thousand cuts. This gave me time to enjoy WTI rally for the rest of the day (at least I am right on something today). Had it not been for CVX I think XLE would be closer to $70 right now.<br /><br />Not to rain on anyone's parade, but this Fed Chair saga is way overblown. Last time I heard the lack of inflation was a "mystery" and Fed was tracking the cell phone bills for answers. Would you please give me a break? Next they will send the staff to Whole Foods on a perpetual search for more answers on the lack of inflation, and as of yesterday the "mysterious disruptor" may be close to selling drugs in 12 states, thus sending Pharmacies and PBMs on a hunt for insurers (CVS/AET) as prices are about to plunge. Apparently, it's the volume that they are going to be after now. What a travesty! More importantly, what is Fed going to do about that? It's as much of a mystery as the fact that internet and low prices are here to stay forever and will be applied to all facets of our lives. Just get on with it already! Status quo to continue, I say.<br /><br />Speaking of which... DXY is at a very important level here. It is facing a big resistance at monthly 8 ema (95.30-ish). This looks oh so close to Oct of 2002 but one had to wait for months to get the answer.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3695059980970623032017-10-27T17:37:18.084+01:002017-10-27T17:37:18.084+01:00Further to my, "when China drops growth targe...Further to my, "when China drops growth targets, its stock market will double" ironic truth thought: http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2117060/xi-skipped-gdp-target-purpose-says-aide<br /><br />LB, I actually bought some FVZ7 on the headline. Already flipped it, but I suspect you're right about going long treasuries here. Counter-argument would be big year-end stock market rally with bonds selling off alongside. Also, Politico says "Trump changes his mind about it every day" which is a bit scary, because Taylor really should be a non-starter if Trump is a "low rates guy" as we imagine.johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7051373835855565582017-10-27T16:54:27.321+01:002017-10-27T16:54:27.321+01:00I hate to get all global macro here, but we now ha...I hate to get all global macro here, but we now have an independent Catalunya.... Spanish bond yields are climbing.<br /><br />Spain is going to send the tanks in, basically, in some format. This is going to be a very tense weekend, and I believe that this will not end well, or for some time. Bunds will catch a bid, and with the bund-10y spread at 200 bps, buying Treasuries here would seem to be a no-brainer. [Full disclosure - long TLT]. Remember that massive short 5y position? Now add Powell as Fed Chair. ISM 60, rising rates, GDP 3.0%, high equity valuations.... this might just be as good as it gets for some people.<br /><br />The short vol selling trade (via SVXY optionality) is showing some promise. The last drop in SVXY on Wednesday was sharp, and although Chad, Brad and Thad bought the dip in SVXY, there might have been a few moments when they felt sick to their stomach. The next drop in SVXY will be a massive puke. This trade is stale and everyone is on the same side of the boat.<br /><br />Not sure we are there yet, but somewhere out there will be a Monday morning gap down open that will challenge the "portfolio management skills" of a lot of newer market participants. It's been a while since we got to see how Dumb Money handles a sell-off. Nasdaq in the grip of a vicious squeeze today after AMZN earnings. We remain focused on the highly leveraged small caps; in a falling market this is almost always the weakest segment.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.com