tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7876675015394160306..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Here There Be DragonsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43262483437640836342011-06-16T19:16:51.944+01:002011-06-16T19:16:51.944+01:00LB as it happens .... yes . should be up in a few...LB as it happens .... yes . should be up in a few minsPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70231089179585766162011-06-16T18:41:39.186+01:002011-06-16T18:41:39.186+01:00Very quiet, TMM. Concocting another post on the la...Very quiet, TMM. Concocting another post on the latest drachmatic Greek rescue?<br /><br />US markets finally seeing a spike in the VIX and put/call ratios this week, perhaps we are approaching a selling climax?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90130203473845740322011-06-15T21:47:59.676+01:002011-06-15T21:47:59.676+01:00Or to put it another way...
Q1 equities up, risk ...Or to put it another way...<br /><br />Q1 equities up, risk on. <br />Q2 equities down, risk off.<br />Q3 equities up, risk on.<br />Q4 equities down, risk off.<br /><br />Like you we're not jumping the gun on SPY. If we are right, Nikkei and USDJPY will turn decisively first.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85499401056008506262011-06-15T21:44:25.409+01:002011-06-15T21:44:25.409+01:00Claus
1) No QE3, not until the Winter of Disconte...Claus<br /><br />1) No QE3, not until the Winter of Discontent.<br />2) Don't care about SPY, not just yet.<br />3) Hoping EWJ holds above nuclear lows (!)<br />4) When does lower crude become a positive?<br />5) US 10s forming a bottom in yields?<br /><br />LB posits that we eventually see a weak "self-sustaining recovery" on lower $wtic, $gaso, leading to increased US consumer spend, and stronger jobs numbers, and a modest flow of funds out of USTs drives an equity bounce. <br /><br />Later in the year, China/EM slowdown and Euro banking saga really bites and then we get a big global dump, leading to QE3.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16387438528444298852011-06-15T21:29:53.693+01:002011-06-15T21:29:53.693+01:00Phew!I just put in my fist all nighter(Sydney)I do...Phew!I just put in my fist all nighter(Sydney)I doubt they'll all be like that.Don't say you at Ascot today TMM,Ambonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33912166628532227762011-06-15T21:14:24.571+01:002011-06-15T21:14:24.571+01:00Well, post Japan quake levels in SPY coming to a c...Well, post Japan quake levels in SPY coming to a cinema near you very soon I think, so let us see whether the Fed pulls out the QE3 on this. <br /><br />My working assumptionis that it takes a decisive move below 1250 for the QE3 argument to be there. <br /><br />Generally, this is all very painful but really, I want to break that nuclear holocaust level on the SPY before I get worried (greedy). <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44612426151448921942011-06-15T21:13:36.647+01:002011-06-15T21:13:36.647+01:00If $95 breaks in WTI, it will probably fall to at ...If $95 breaks in WTI, it will probably fall to at least $90, more likely mid-$80s, maybe lower. I don't follow the price action as much in Brent, but what level would be considered more 'healthy'? $100 give or take?WellRednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47696758901433515572011-06-15T19:27:08.108+01:002011-06-15T19:27:08.108+01:00Beeb reporter on Greece.
Nice bit of reportage he...Beeb reporter on Greece.<br /><br />Nice bit of reportage here. Note the comments at the very end about the widespread distrust of élite politicians, bankers and MEDIA.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-13783420" rel="nofollow"> BBC Report from Athens </a><br /><br />Not only do people not want trust what the media is telling them, but they do not want to see or hear from the representatives of mainstream media. <br /><br />This is really a sign that Greek society is close to breakdown. We are closer to reaching this point in other countries than most Europeans and Americans would believe. <br /><br />When I was very young, Greece, Spain and Portugal were all military/fascist dictatorships. Democracy is more fragile in all these countries than we think.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19982386818154577562011-06-15T18:53:37.746+01:002011-06-15T18:53:37.746+01:00The clavadista d'olio....
A big vertical plu...The clavadista d'olio.... <br /><br />A big vertical plunge in gasoline prices is probably just what the doctor ordered for the US consumer. Market isn't going to bottom until the energy longs have finished jumping out the windows, though...<br /><br />Yesterday was a classic sucker's rally in risk assets. Luckily, we were not tempted. LB is glad he has been paying attention to TMM. This has been a lot steeper and nastier than we had originally anticipated.<br /><br />Still bullish on Japan and adding when opportunities present themselves. There has to be some kind of recovery in Japanese factory output before long.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75098175536089272962011-06-15T10:11:52.047+01:002011-06-15T10:11:52.047+01:00Don't forget,TMM,the real thing runs around TO...Don't forget,TMM,the real thing runs around TODAY!Ambonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67598238701718390642011-06-11T08:41:14.438+01:002011-06-11T08:41:14.438+01:00Nokia looks like the next Dell to me - no in house...Nokia looks like the next Dell to me - no in house software of note and just another manufacturer for Android handsets. <br /><br />On Chaoda, boy oh boy do I have some stories. Suffice to say HK regulators have big balls right up to the point at which they are going toe to toe with a former PLA General. I'll leave this to Muddy Waters - its too damn easy but then again do you want to feel safe ever again? People like that tend to be above the law in China and can pretty readily make people disappear.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54632951519374859392011-06-11T08:23:26.945+01:002011-06-11T08:23:26.945+01:00Re Nokia: hard to see valuation go much lower than...Re Nokia: hard to see valuation go much lower than this, but previous experience at another Scandinavian company in the same segment gives me little hope for Nokia in the long term. Management most likely has no clue what has actually happened and even less about how to solve it, as the people who had ideas and resolve are gone. Company is known for massive scale, massive buereaucracy and an obsession with reinventing the wheel. Compare to MSFT, which has a much healthier and less threatened business model but similar valuation and no share movement in the last 10 years.<br />However, a management change can be expected which after one quarter will lead to massive kitchen sinking, layoffs and meaningless fluff about Win 7 phones and new in-house social networks - and a probable bounce in the stock price.Vasastannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75720999521525142542011-06-11T01:58:20.566+01:002011-06-11T01:58:20.566+01:00LB,
Thanks for reits' info. You are always we...LB,<br /><br />Thanks for reits' info. You are always welcome at anony. traders.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54182418658920011252011-06-10T20:58:08.796+01:002011-06-10T20:58:08.796+01:00High yield looking ugly at the end of the day.
No ...High yield looking ugly at the end of the day.<br />No knives for LB. We'll see how next week opens.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14524366582767980022011-06-10T20:57:27.406+01:002011-06-10T20:57:27.406+01:00After re-reading the comments from Himalayan Pink ...After re-reading the comments from Himalayan Pink Salt I made some pansy defensive moves...swapping a discretionary name for a staple and an industrial for some cash.Tylerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265862490530746096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62844957047619853942011-06-10T20:12:48.191+01:002011-06-10T20:12:48.191+01:00Every bounce has been very very weak. I suppose Ty...Every bounce has been very very weak. I suppose Tyler is still sitting on the sidelines.<br /><br />Nokia.<br /><br />Falling knife? Cash cow?<br />Death rattle? Poisoned chalice? Doomed dividend?<br />Maker of really nasty little plastic phones.<br /><br />Discuss...?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28274920584079567842011-06-10T19:02:49.306+01:002011-06-10T19:02:49.306+01:00Market action turning ugly. Bad day for the 1275 &...Market action turning ugly. Bad day for the 1275 "ambulance chasers" (dip buyers?). A lesson on what happens to weak technical support levels (farewell, 1295, 1275, and thanks for the fish). The black stuff also seems to be finally headed lower, perhaps a function of forced unwinding by DGDF diehards.<br /><br />LB is glad he heeded the sage advice of TMM, and is keeping half an eye on credit markets, which so far seem to be slightly less distressed than their equity counterparts, for today at least.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4299024660755051792011-06-10T17:38:51.224+01:002011-06-10T17:38:51.224+01:00Re scams: Does anyone have an opinion on whether C...Re scams: Does anyone have an opinion on whether Chaoda is an even bigger fraud than the ones already mentioned? I've followed this share up and down, and up and down again for several years, and while there has been smoke at regular intervals never any real fire. Will the cancellation of their last round of debt raising and the magazine accusations be the final straw?Vasastannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52163887042594955812011-06-10T16:58:41.424+01:002011-06-10T16:58:41.424+01:00This weeks price action in energy, the dark variet...This weeks price action in energy, the dark variety,seems to be giving off signals only the mother of a short term momo program could love.<br />In my language thats telling.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61187596669405093932011-06-10T16:52:28.913+01:002011-06-10T16:52:28.913+01:00Cougars are endemic in parts of Fairfield County, ...Cougars are endemic in parts of Fairfield County, Polemic. One must be vigilant at all times.<br /><br />Speaking of vigilance, it isn't just portfolio managers who need to keep their eyes on the ball:<br /><br /><a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/soccer/blog/dirty-tackle/post/Why-goalkeepers-shouldn-8217-t-be-too-quick-to-?urn=sow-wp2377" rel="nofollow"> Goalie Pays the Penalty for Premature Exultation </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36574745128886560962011-06-10T16:43:04.500+01:002011-06-10T16:43:04.500+01:00Lb.. more likely just a Cougar.Lb.. more likely just a Cougar.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7360632060505730822011-06-10T16:31:07.036+01:002011-06-10T16:31:07.036+01:00not what I would like to hear LB, but i suppose yo...not what I would like to hear LB, but i suppose you're right. The move needs to be painful enough to get long only guys like me to act. <br /><br />Now the question is merely whether I am acting before others, or along with others (thus, creating the bottom).Tylerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265862490530746096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38553339707343967102011-06-10T15:37:51.427+01:002011-06-10T15:37:51.427+01:00As if the market wasn't difficult enough....
...As if the market wasn't difficult enough....<br /><br /><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110610/us_nm/us_mountainlion_connecticut_sighting?bouchon=501,ny" rel="nofollow"> Mountain Lion Spotted in Greenwich </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65229832184767574092011-06-10T15:25:13.660+01:002011-06-10T15:25:13.660+01:00More on REITs:
REITs Diverging
We have seen sp...More on REITs:<br /><br /><a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/274160-housing-double-dip-fears-further-non-agency-paper-weakness?source=yahoo" rel="nofollow"> REITs Diverging </a><br /><br />We have seen spreads widen between higher quality and lower quality paper this week and the recent outperformance of AGNC and NLY relative to other REITs with sub-prime exposure reflects that. Know what you own...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77237990004707800732011-06-10T15:19:01.030+01:002011-06-10T15:19:01.030+01:00Interest rates may not go anywhere much for a whil...Interest rates may not go anywhere much for a while, and they are certainly not going up to the stratosphere in any kind of major bond market meltdown. So the interest-rate sensitive sectors should be fairly stable. As for REITs, it depends what assets they own...<br /><br />Yesterday was indeed a head fake, as many here suggested. This isn't going to be over until we have a high velocity, high volume down day. Crude, energy seem especially vulnerable to an accelerated sell off.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.com