tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7690248736970715361..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The Case of the Missing Bodies - A Sherlock Holmes StoryMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61088407183550126802014-02-04T00:46:58.938+00:002014-02-04T00:46:58.938+00:00I expected red tooth in claw in the charts. Horse...I expected red tooth in claw in the charts. Horses are so much more predictable. Just look at the Gold chart and throw darts..maybe.The<br />Trusty Climactic readings I watch ( here's looking at you precious) have the Nazzy dropping further by 10 pct.<br />Be gone! I'm on holidays and these sports stats are doing my head in..not:)<br />amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24167790775689428042014-02-03T23:11:30.643+00:002014-02-03T23:11:30.643+00:00Very nice TMM!
Very silly that the economic syst...Very nice TMM! <br /><br />Very silly that the economic system that is now run by over 7 billion people in the world is so deeply affected by one single entity. And when that entity coughs, the rest of the world thinks it's going to die and start screaming and generating "evidence" to support that assumption. Fortunately I bet we will get a new driver for the money truck soon, a nice old lady. The truck will also be replaced by a bigger one next time, after which people can start breathing again.<br /><br />But I feel the concern for valuations. If EM currencies continue to take the boot, it will start effecting their ability to buy stuff from Uncle Sam. And if EM indeed has been the biggest generator to propel earnings and sales growth, then what will be left if we take that away?<br /><br />I think stock buybacks have been another nice contributor for EPS. Unfortunately many companies are now much more leveraged than they were eg. in 2007, so we will see diminishing effects from this too. <br /><br />In retrospect perhaps we should have been a bit more wary about the whole economic growth scheme, since buyback in essense implicates that investing in "real assets" is a much more unproductive alternative. The good thing is that if these companies don't dilute the sharecount, prices won't go as low as they did last time. The prices only need to return to form a new basis to present more accurately the modest growth that has been going on in the real economy.<br /><br />For the PMI number: well it's all about a game called "Beat the expectations" created by Wall Street, that's based on relativity of expectations and outcomes. I bet someone made a lot of money on this huge shocker and will continue to do it again, when the masses least expect it. The market indeed likes to make fools of the general consensus, which has been proved again and again. <br /><br />I wouldn't yet draw a line from such a short datapoint. Monthly fluctuations can and will happen. Maybe it would be even more worrying if they didn't. Just keep some dry powder and rake up those dividends. New highs will come over time, as will the bigger truck with a leaky backdoor cruising through the neighborhood.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24812308213930650962014-02-03T21:14:00.146+00:002014-02-03T21:14:00.146+00:00That was a nice big out of line ISM, should put a ...That was a nice big out of line ISM, should put a dent in a lot of US eco models, at least until we see next months print or some of the other surveys. Bonds sure loved it!<br /><br />Breaking december lows in Spoos looks big but lets put it in perspective, EVERYONE was bullish since Nov (year end, then 2014 forecasts) so its not a huge surprise to me. 200 day at around 1700 looks good for a bounce, maybe by the end of the week. I would be filling the boots anything under 1650. <br /><br />But this certainly looks like a cliff dive, so patience is needed. My guess is that we probably dont bottom until march or so then rally back to the highs later in the year only to end around flat. You heard it here first. <br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90473194408384698382014-02-03T20:33:14.496+00:002014-02-03T20:33:14.496+00:00Amps .. tell me about it. really didn't see th...Amps .. tell me about it. really didn't see the hight of the US wall we just hit, though LB has been on the front of the ship shouting "ICE", nor the depth of the EM dip. Or perhaps. the SPEED. Braking distance of this beast has been shorter than that Leopard tank in the dutch confidence test. So how far do things fall to see the EMs actually rescued by the crapness of the US econ? Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32864069950109600182014-02-03T19:39:23.685+00:002014-02-03T19:39:23.685+00:00so.... they kept the market until bonuses got vote...so.... they kept the market until bonuses got voted... then trashed it<br /><br />DImon bonus from 11 mil to 20?<br /><br />enough said<br /><br />dunno why anyone is trying to find any other justification to current price action<br /><br />it is not over<br /><br />2013 was the hold up of the decade , and the return to normal ain't going to feel normal for the dumb money that got stuffed above 1600<br /><br />you guys made a great call but covered far too earlyNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86803727848652822692014-02-03T18:16:51.830+00:002014-02-03T18:16:51.830+00:00http://thecontrariancorner.com/?p=12718http://thecontrariancorner.com/?p=12718Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46144921840254710082014-02-03T15:58:05.779+00:002014-02-03T15:58:05.779+00:00Astonishing, Holmes... your powers of deduction ne...Astonishing, Holmes... your powers of deduction never cease to amaze me.<br /><br />Btw, a small typo (caused by Mr Gates' software no doubt). Should be "mete" out instead of "meet".<br /><br />Agreed on EMs. The dog that didn't die in the night. Domestically, as always, LB is astonished that not only was he right about the softness of Uncle Sam's recovery but it is FAR WORSE than we expected. Weather being blamed even now on the financial media.<br /><br />Our December move into munis and REITs now looking less like insanity and more like inspiration.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86147621556531651502014-02-03T14:11:26.076+00:002014-02-03T14:11:26.076+00:00Hmmm...it looks like Holmes is taking his cues fro...Hmmm...it looks like Holmes is taking his cues from Lestrade these days. Using PMIs as the sole criterion of health of the victims. Tsk...tsk. I wonder what M. Dupin is up to these days?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54326888330736637342014-02-03T13:54:15.637+00:002014-02-03T13:54:15.637+00:00Marvellous. That made my day !Marvellous. That made my day !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com