tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7689581267344704058..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The vexing question of BrexitMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4991422117825901972016-03-02T04:16:32.677+00:002016-03-02T04:16:32.677+00:00so my conclusion is still confused ;-)..so my conclusion is still confused ;-)..abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64707636113435940602016-03-02T04:12:11.225+00:002016-03-02T04:12:11.225+00:00The real economy might be doing OK, as referred to...The real economy might be doing OK, as referred to Mr Beach, which I agree, but in the stock market, forward EPS have declined pretty substantially. That is the warning sign for me and while ISM was positive, we need to see some > 50 numbers to really get surprises and EPS forecasts higher. Otherwise it looks like just a big regime change, where Value/ sold of stocks rally hard. Not saying it cant last a bit longer, as I think it probably will, but corporate health needs to improve a lot, IMO, for new highs<br /><br />But HY, Financials, Transports all rallying hard. US bonds/notes finally selling off (bunds less so). Oil stable and Risk FX all pointing in the same direction, so hard to fade at this point, IMO. But end of month/first of month moves are tricky. Not always to be trusted (as we saw last month)abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9661967765977887562016-03-01T22:47:34.844+00:002016-03-01T22:47:34.844+00:00With a gain of 2.39%, the S&P 500 just had its...With a gain of 2.39%, the S&P 500 just had its best start to March in its history... looks like the buy the dippers here were right.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53650396728826725822016-03-01T20:34:01.047+00:002016-03-01T20:34:01.047+00:00unloading some calls here in spx 1980-2000 "s...unloading some calls here in spx 1980-2000 "should" face some resistance i feel...overall still bullish generally but banking some cash...plans to buy dips - added to some bund puts....that could go pretty quick once qe announced i feel( had alluded to this yesterday)- in fact with credit coming in quite nicely the best risk on move looks short bonds i feel<br />MM - good summary on Brexit - for my own self odds with bookies still 3/2 on...so I'm going with them- they did nail the scottish one as well- of course past performance and all that...<br />and fully agree for now eurgbp best asymmetric bet followed by some short sterling short- though the number of times that short sterling has hammered me makes me not want to touch that puppy<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-971060666494839692016-03-01T20:33:12.003+00:002016-03-01T20:33:12.003+00:00Mr Beach/anon 8:16 - I would be curious to know if...Mr Beach/anon 8:16 - I would be curious to know if any data breaks out the hotel occupancy rate trends attributable to business travel vs leisure, and if people are driving to hotels as opposed to flying - if the trends are diverging (just a hypothesis on my part) that may provide interesting color. <br />It is certainly possible that 'experts' were a little too quick in dismissing the benefits of lower gasoline - I guess it wouldn't be surprising in a world where if a theory fails a visual test in 10 days, it is treated as utter garbage, and its demise seen as heralding the dawn of a new era. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33691544721650406492016-03-01T20:16:16.962+00:002016-03-01T20:16:16.962+00:00@MrBeach,
Here are a few points I have on hotel o...@MrBeach,<br /><br />Here are a few points I have on hotel occupancy: First it does look like a nice indicator for real economy; Then gas price/airline ticket price should be considered since it is cheaper for air travel thus low oil price might contribute to the high hotel occupancy. Also, the stock market has a weak wealth effect as a whole, so January's drop won't have an immediate impact on consumption, just yet. <br /><br />There are also a few other factors on lack of hotel deals besides the higher demand: higher minimum wages and higher rents/healthcare costs (for hotel employees) push the hotel operating cost higher. <br /><br />Anecdotally, the next big shock might be the rising inflation as MM had noticed in CPI/PCE. The haircut places had raised prices (about 25%) late last year after 5 years of unchanged prices. Now I live in the state with low costs of living and with the federal minimum wage. Haircut should be quite price elastic. So I think that Fed might change its tone in the next few months when they see the inflation expectation shots up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57859221624835786622016-03-01T20:04:26.829+00:002016-03-01T20:04:26.829+00:00MrBeach you are correct. The bear thesis for US eq...MrBeach you are correct. The bear thesis for US equities is utter gibberish, propagated by those of diminished intelligence. We will see a massive rally in US equities from here, taking out the 2015 highs in short order. There is already a rotation from bonds to stocks underway, & once this gathers momentum there will be no stopping it. I am 100% long.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85592982530438117822016-03-01T19:57:37.791+00:002016-03-01T19:57:37.791+00:00Here is the link:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.c...Here is the link:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/02/hotel-occupancy-in-2016-tracking-record.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/02/hotel-occupancy-in-2016-tracking-record.html</a><br /><br />Unclear to me whether airbnb is stealing market share from hotels or expanding the market with different types of product (homes to shared rooms).<br /><br />Regardless, market turmoil in January doesn't appear to have caused a drop in the most hotel numbers (week of Feb 14-20). <br /><br />Anecdotally, in looking to plan a vacation with family during spring break and summer, I'm not finding any deals anywhere. As recently as 2012, nice deals could be found. Since 2013, deals seem to have disappeared for all peak travel weeks of the year.<br /><br />MrBeachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50876889621673403172016-03-01T19:49:10.026+00:002016-03-01T19:49:10.026+00:00Interesting Mr. Beach, particularly given the airb...Interesting Mr. Beach, particularly given the airbnb effect as well.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9713163292317665462016-03-01T19:46:28.626+00:002016-03-01T19:46:28.626+00:00This rally from the low the 1800s in the S&P h...This rally from the low the 1800s in the S&P has been remarkable. Between China, Oil, geopolitics, Euro, Brexit, BOJ, ECB and Fed, the issues have continued to pile up.<br /><br />One of the signals I use in my trading is hotel occupancy rates. The Calculated Risk Blog had this to say two days ago: <i>"The red line is for 2016, dashed orange is 2015, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels. <b>2015 was the best year on record for hotels. So far 2016 is tracking 2015. A solid start to the year.</b>"</i><br /><br />As such, I haven't sold any positions. I've added consumer discretionary, energy and nasdaq. I continue to add emerging market and Canada exposure to my positions.<br /><br />MrBeachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62016956289354171202016-03-01T19:25:49.718+00:002016-03-01T19:25:49.718+00:00Take it to ZH. I don't want it here.Take it to ZH. I don't want it here.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42969838773074324672016-03-01T19:03:45.811+00:002016-03-01T19:03:45.811+00:00I doubt anyone "subscribes to the fact that o...I doubt anyone "subscribes to the fact that our markets are totally manipulated by algos," because I can't even figure out what that means. Are you saying that the price of every stock on every US market is set at any given moment by a powerful computer run by an extremely wealthy secret society? <br /><br />I remember reading how early in the crash of '29 a group of bankers and other muckety-mucks tried to make the faltering market rally by putting in fairly large bids for US Steel and a few other blue chips. Everyone was rooting for them to succeed, yet they managed to change the direction of the DOW for barely an hour. And that was when the market was a fraction of the size it is today. BWDIK?<br /><br />Rossmorguy<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6369616218239248322016-03-01T18:53:37.466+00:002016-03-01T18:53:37.466+00:00Yes abee its a yuuuuuuuge rally !Yes abee its a yuuuuuuuge rally !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78689985736416237772016-03-01T18:47:09.281+00:002016-03-01T18:47:09.281+00:00Apparently trump mania has so much momentum he can...Apparently trump mania has so much momentum he can bid up the price of highosts yield, financials, transports and the whole stoclass market! !! <br /><br />The internal rotation continues but at least this time ISM was better, especially if you look at new orders. I'll be watching non man pretty closely abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12114850873250139452016-03-01T18:47:06.092+00:002016-03-01T18:47:06.092+00:00Damn auto correct. My apologies. Damn auto correct. My apologies. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89262164544465622832016-03-01T18:46:59.357+00:002016-03-01T18:46:59.357+00:00Damn auto correct. My apologies. Damn auto correct. My apologies. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61007842113808855002016-03-01T18:46:02.608+00:002016-03-01T18:46:02.608+00:00Apparently trump mania has so much momentum he can...Apparently trump mania has so much momentum he can bid up the price of highosts yield, financials, transports and the whole stoclass market! !! <br /><br />The internal rotation continues but at least this time ISM was better, especially if you look at new orders. I'll be watching non man pretty closely abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38718005661607310282016-03-01T16:45:33.689+00:002016-03-01T16:45:33.689+00:00And I am short my seasonal favorite of Bunds. On t...And I am short my seasonal favorite of Bunds. On top of the general -vs for bonds I think too much is priced into the Draghi rescue.<br />european PMIs today no great problem and EU unemployment falling nicely. Eurozone lowest unemp since 2011 and for whole EU is lowest since 2009. Of course, on topic, a brexit would make thise EU figures worse! <br /><br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30146247927229265162016-03-01T16:41:50.186+00:002016-03-01T16:41:50.186+00:00I am short Gilts here TraderJim ... I think bonds ...I am short Gilts here TraderJim ... I think bonds of all colours are an accident waiting to happen, but I am, also, a broken clock, so I'll stop now ;). CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80395144160226486142016-03-01T16:13:24.986+00:002016-03-01T16:13:24.986+00:00Also, linked to the fx rate debate, some data poin...Also, linked to the fx rate debate, some data points for UK Gilts. <br /><br />In January, overseas investors sold £6.3b net gilts, highest since 2014.<br />Every month UK govt. has been issuing Gilts to cover the cash deficit. Dec was £6.7b, Jan was £9.5b and Feb £5.8b<br />Coverage ratio in 20-Jan auction was poor at 1.07 but recovered to 1.90, 2.08 and 1.52 for the next three auctions.<br />The recent drop in the pound is enough to wipe out some years worth of coupon payments for foreign holders.<br />Gilts have had a run-up this year but approaching the last peak reached in early 2015<br /><br />I wonder if a short turn is coming. Might be a big ask with Bunds on a tear this year and deflation stalking Euro area. But the gilts seem to be running out of steam.<br /><br />TraderJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17870637335405087110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62612348500629031062016-03-01T14:09:55.236+00:002016-03-01T14:09:55.236+00:00Agree with booger - it all depends on whether the ...Agree with booger - it all depends on whether the EU really wants to keep us in or not - esp with regard to point (e) - the budget gap. The history of EU referenda is that normally you have to give the 'correct' answer. If you don't, you have to have the referendum again until you do. See various referenda in Ireland, Denmark etc for example. What this or that treaty says is really not important.<br /><br />Personally I think there is no chance of a leave vote anyway. Same as Scottish independence vote - people will complain about Westminster/tories/EU/france/whatever but in the end the benefits are largely token but the risks potentially big.<br /><br />billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76996647756229278152016-03-01T13:54:34.173+00:002016-03-01T13:54:34.173+00:00"11. The UK has generally influenced EU poli..."11. The UK has generally influenced EU policy in ways thought to be favoured by markets. Its absence could result in a vacuum filled by less (classically) liberal viewpoints."<br /><br />The horror. The horror.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35962907348661601872016-03-01T12:51:33.884+00:002016-03-01T12:51:33.884+00:00@ Booger read article 50. After 2 years they ar...@ Booger read article 50. After 2 years they are out without a unanimous vote of the European Commission (good luck with that)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23616348456627371552016-03-01T12:27:54.070+00:002016-03-01T12:27:54.070+00:00Pol: Does it not depend on the political agenda ? ...Pol: Does it not depend on the political agenda ? <br /><br />why can't a no vote be sent to a committee for a few years ? <br /><br />No is can still be no, but in 2026, when it can be sent to another committee to meet with other E.U committees. Boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72167687853574360662016-03-01T12:21:25.735+00:002016-03-01T12:21:25.735+00:00Anon 12.19 If UK votes out they are out. There is ...Anon 12.19 If UK votes out they are out. There is no bargaining to remain once you are out. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.com