tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7597632767049453442..comments2024-03-18T18:27:47.714+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Watching an Oprah rerunMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21555860509636273062016-07-04T20:27:51.268+01:002016-07-04T20:27:51.268+01:00Beginner - The basic truth is we cant all retire t...Beginner - The basic truth is we cant all retire together. Someone has to do the work. SO by definition the value of investements will still level out to a gradient of winners and losers. We cant all be winners and retire to Hawaii and think someone esle is going to serve us our pina coladas. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36610782435740296582016-07-04T20:24:31.619+01:002016-07-04T20:24:31.619+01:00Building co's got hammered on Brexit T+1 and r...Building co's got hammered on Brexit T+1 and recovered. ETFs have had the same knee jerk reaction. There are two drivers to a market .. supply and demand. Demand is 2 fold. The speculative and the physical. Man buying ETF that buys a chunk of an office block ve business buys or rents said office block from ETF owner. At the moment we have not seen any change in behaviour of the people renting office space. So far its just speculative. If spec sell but renters arent leaving then the yield on the property increases. There isn't a lending crisis and there isn't a leverage crisis to stop new investors taking some of that higher yield. Except unless they too think people are going to stop renting office space. This all cycles back to the belief that the economy is going to collapse before it has collapsed. Dumping commercial property on a speculative basis through ETFs is part of the fear whipping. <br /><br />Let's just wait for the data. If Osborne really does cut corp tax to 15% and BoE will keep throwing money at the problem then in GBP terms commercial property could keep looking pretty good. <br /><br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29891268427463122232016-07-04T20:04:29.457+01:002016-07-04T20:04:29.457+01:00Agreed CV. Worries about retail liquidity going to...Agreed CV. Worries about retail liquidity going to get this thing going.<br /><br />Info:<br /><br />Standard Life has been forced to stop retail investors selling out of one of the UK’s largest property funds after rapid cash outflows were sparked by fears over falling real estate values in the week after the Brexit vote.<br /><br />The £2.9bn commercial property fund will need to sell real estate to raise cash before any money can be redeemed.<br /><br />The last property crash in the UK in 2007 was preceded by a wave of similar forced gatings by funds struggling to meet investor demands for cash, which led to firesales of property that added to the pressure on an already falling market.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3108014197845381212016-07-04T17:17:49.162+01:002016-07-04T17:17:49.162+01:00Two Standard Life funds suspended due to Brexit. T...Two Standard Life funds suspended due to Brexit. This is the kind of news that makes me nervous. Illiquidity in one market begets liquidity strains in other markets ... obviously, given that it is U.K. property it is not particularly "systemic", but I worry all the same. All that CB liquidity will not be worth much, if the rot spreads through the ETF/funds markets. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87505760428185832142016-07-04T16:44:58.995+01:002016-07-04T16:44:58.995+01:00Copper looks like it is putting in a reversal bar ...Copper looks like it is putting in a reversal bar today. It stopped nearly bang on 10% from it's recent bottom, and a nice 8% from the Brexit dip.<br />Too early to tell - but maybe a precursor for equities.<br /><br />More of a heads up, than solid analysis.Skrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33551734325964918352016-07-04T14:15:30.767+01:002016-07-04T14:15:30.767+01:00I'd like you to read this and comment:
http://...I'd like you to read this and comment:<br />http://www.businessinsider.com/investors-shouldnt-expect-great-returns-2016-7<br /><br />As an ordinary investor, am I correct in assuming we're never gonna afford to retire?Beginnernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23723328152927448192016-07-04T12:50:05.748+01:002016-07-04T12:50:05.748+01:00@ anon 9:59am
yes that's simple extrapolation...@ anon 9:59am<br /><br />yes that's simple extrapolation of past cycles: at past average D growth rate, take depletion rate etc you get to some tightness at some point. The effect you are talking about is for conventional investment cycles, indeed today's lack of investment will have an effect on that.<br />But to LB's point, that is in the future and it is not now. It is undeniable that the re balancing is murky and not clear cut and can shift either side easily. Look at the analyst numbers, even the demand side can swing from 1.8 to 8k bbl/d (and we're into July!). The massive crude and product stocks are not being drawn. The record outages we had in Q2 most likely won't be back to help. Chinese won't pull on the bbl in 2H as they did in 1H. Concerning the drop in US production you refer to, had we told you a couple years ago, that front brent was going to touch $27.88, you would have said much more bbls would have been cut. The US is still producing a lot and importing a lot.<br />The longer crude stays in this $50 - $55 range, the less the immediate explosiveness upside potential in the near term IMHO. There is a wall selling above in Cal17 and 18 from producers being lined up. Looks to me for now that crude needs much more of a catalyst to breakout higher.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55414625196521158632016-07-04T12:37:18.366+01:002016-07-04T12:37:18.366+01:00www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-03/oil-ral...www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-03/oil-rally-threatened-as-gasoline-supply-surge-swamps-u-s-demand<br /><br />Lefty,<br /><br />It appears some here think like Dougie...just keep posting so I can follow it...<br /><br />BinTBruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21725223259956165022016-07-04T08:42:19.385+01:002016-07-04T08:42:19.385+01:00I believe the "Muppet" name is still fre...I believe the "Muppet" name is still free on this blog should you wish to avail yourself.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37918823882055684092016-07-04T07:44:28.224+01:002016-07-04T07:44:28.224+01:00Equity indexes up again - must the all the named c...Equity indexes up again - must the all the named commentators here being short and losing their shirts..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70370449622893318952016-07-03T09:59:12.719+01:002016-07-03T09:59:12.719+01:00LB, I've said it before I'll say it again....LB, I've said it before I'll say it again. Oil is move from chronic over supply to under supply. Massive capex cuts will do that. For meaningful capex increases we need to go substantially higher in oil. Us production is over 1mm off the highs and the key thing to appreciate is that to get us supply up to the highs (which will ultimately be needed) requires a vast amount of new money. This makes the e and p space particularly interesting because it's grossly overvalued, it's issued tons to keep alive, and now oil prices are going to go much higher it's going to issue loads and loads more. Potential for fireworks as the oil equivalent of the tmt bubble has a rude awakeningAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82197120608528812632016-07-03T09:57:35.453+01:002016-07-03T09:57:35.453+01:00The Anon/username issue has been addressed multipl...The Anon/username issue has been addressed multiple times. Usually, after the market rallies following a decent sell off when the trolls come out to play. Once every 4/5 months or so.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70039207124455170412016-07-03T04:31:55.055+01:002016-07-03T04:31:55.055+01:00MM -
What Down side Up said...
double plus ditto,...MM - <br />What Down side Up said...<br />double plus ditto, please.72batnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50659421220896410412016-07-03T01:31:29.269+01:002016-07-03T01:31:29.269+01:00MM, why not require Anons to actually choose a nam...MM, why not require Anons to actually choose a name. Given the usually purile content they pollute this place with, they may mostly fail to meet this requirement ;)Down side Upnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16936393989240616422016-07-02T18:32:44.417+01:002016-07-02T18:32:44.417+01:00Thinking about the market reactions in the immedia...Thinking about the market reactions in the immediate aftermath of Brexit. How much did the Swiss peg removal impact actions ahead of the referendum? Risk desks, FCM's and margin clerks on much higher alert to sudden moves.<br /><br />Anecdotal, it was probably the most on the ball our Risk team had been and our positions were tiny at best. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84800459883771109792016-07-01T20:54:48.484+01:002016-07-01T20:54:48.484+01:00I'm bullish on commodities and the cmdty equit...I'm bullish on commodities and the cmdty equities. The oil & gas names in particular have done a lot of delevering with successful secondaries and and asset sales. This changes the equation from the perspective of the producers from "need to pump to meet debt obligations" to "can afford to be opportunistic and take a longer view on maximizing asset returns". The iran-pumping-5mil/day boogieman has passed, demand is stable (if not growing), and the market is waking up to the realities of coal-to-gas switching effect on summer power burn and the new injection season. Throw in IOEA still rallying, hot rolled steel stable & higher (witness SCHN recent earnings leverage). The next leg higher in the equities will be driven by M&A.<br /><br />just my misguided .02Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63288525284019820922016-07-01T20:51:27.432+01:002016-07-01T20:51:27.432+01:00@LB, I would hardly say crude has rolled over. Sit...@LB, I would hardly say crude has rolled over. Sitting on an upward sloping 50day. Lower highs and lower lows for only 1m. Nothing persistent and we are finally above 100/200 Long term moving averages. FWIW 1m is a good reversal signal for many quant strategies (ie buy high momentum w/1m reversal)<br /><br />@ Washed, I thought the chinese imported all the crude in Q1. Not a fundi expert just what I heard<br /><br />I'd like for crude to head lower. would like to be a buyer at $40 and below (assuming no recession).abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45418704267382962702016-07-01T19:50:03.466+01:002016-07-01T19:50:03.466+01:00Great points on China Washedup. And no, MM and LB ...Great points on China Washedup. And no, MM and LB would be the PMs, and the anons would be bringing in loads of guacamole; )CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21853950160804987162016-07-01T19:46:49.411+01:002016-07-01T19:46:49.411+01:00Left is BACK from the fibonacci calculation offsit...Left is BACK from the fibonacci calculation offsite - good to hear your thoughts mate, and can't say I disagree with any of them, timing issues aside.<br />@Abee, US supply was up in Q2 when NGL's are included - that is a fact - Chinese teapot refineries went haywire importing crude,and Chinese SPR blasted higher in Q2, that is also a fact. To say that the equation solves in a way that suggests global demand was much higher in Q2, well of course, thats just math - the problem is it was demand brought forward from subsequent quarters and cannot be extrapolated. Will try my best to collate some supporting links and send them your way later today. <br />As for the 12 yr old traders - if this community was a fund with MM the strategist and participants as PM's, I believe the anons would be on pizza duty - permanently - and not the fun kind you see on porn sites. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62296716630017153692016-07-01T19:31:12.722+01:002016-07-01T19:31:12.722+01:00I have to say that this made me laugh: "LB - ...I have to say that this made me laugh: "LB - You pose good thoughts, but are entirely wrong on US equities. They will keep on rising, making new all time highs." ... take that LB. I don't have much to add to LB and MM ... I think the rookies here should listen. But they won't. Another thing, you guys should remember your BOP crisis A-B-C ... what happens when a central bank presiding over a CA deficit at 7% of GDP signals easing?! ... bashing Betty indeed!!CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14650500925295171572016-07-01T18:11:34.215+01:002016-07-01T18:11:34.215+01:00Michael Gayed on deflationary signals at the end o...Michael Gayed on deflationary signals at the end of the reflation trade....<br /><br />http://www.marketwatch.com/story/summer-crash-of-2016-is-about-more-than-the-brexit-2016-06-28Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56316669993738727882016-07-01T18:08:37.190+01:002016-07-01T18:08:37.190+01:00@abee, it's a bearish chart, mate. It's ro...@abee, it's a bearish chart, mate. It's rolled over, lower lows and lower highs these past few weeks.<br /><br />Global demand is slow, there are storage vessels overflowing everywhere, including floating ones. Even "Nigerian incidents" seem to be showing a seasonal decline. There are few shorts now and a ton of longs, many of whom are tourists in the commodity markets. We'll see at some point how much leverage is involved.<br /><br />Btw, Magic Dip buyers, Weidmann said "no new stimulus, post-Brexit" so that means no more candy for you for the time being. Draghi is talking bollocks at the moment until there is a real crisis. Banks in Europe are going to have recapitalize on the backs of the investment community and not at the expense of the population, at least for now.<br /><br />Mindless, anons, please give it a rest, MM and others are tired of your puerile commentary. We have all been long through long stretches of this bull market, but nothing lasts for ever, and even if it did, there have been and will continue to be big dumps in the market before this is over.<br /><br />China is still out there, btw, eager to devalue, disorderly FX moves await - perhaps a larger risk than Brexit.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35299735632247431192016-07-01T17:09:23.978+01:002016-07-01T17:09:23.978+01:00@anon3:40 ('the biggest bull market of your li...@anon3:40 ('the biggest bull market of your lives') and @mm3:51 ('son'): I suspect our intrepid anon does not appreciate how much there has been to see in the markets, lo these last several centuries for which decent price records of bull and bear markets exist.<br /><br />That said, US equity earnings yield is around 4% and the ten-year is under 2%.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8074756157955927172016-07-01T16:32:19.374+01:002016-07-01T16:32:19.374+01:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29051695299635569122016-07-01T16:12:24.390+01:002016-07-01T16:12:24.390+01:00LB on oil ... "We expect US supply for the se...LB on oil ... "We expect US supply for the second quarter of 2016 to be revised up due to completion of DUCs earlier than previously expected. That would explain the high volatility in the adjustment factor as the DOE models US supply assuming no increase in the completion of DUCs. Despite the fact that Q2 is the low point for seasonal demand, we drew inventories while a large amount of DUCs were completed. In the coming months, inventory declines will Accelerate significantly as seasonally Q3 demand is 1.5 mbd higher than Q2 on average. This should be the catalyst for higher crude oil prices in the coming months.<br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.com