tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7532955886723549598..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: TantrumsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23488460816440277942016-09-13T03:13:04.855+01:002016-09-13T03:13:04.855+01:00A steepening of Jap yields would be a POSITIVE for...A steepening of Jap yields would be a POSITIVE for all equities, imo.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41484215698666063502016-09-13T00:28:35.676+01:002016-09-13T00:28:35.676+01:00There it is.
Latest Hilsenrath article at WSJ:...There it is. <br /><br />Latest Hilsenrath article at WSJ: "Divided Federal Reserve Is Inclined to Stand Pat....Federal Reserve officials, lacking a strong consensus for action a week before their next policy meeting, are leaning toward waiting until late in the year before raising short-term interest rates.<br /><br />It is a close call. But with inflation holding below the Fed’s 2% target and the unemployment rate little changed in recent months, senior officials feel little sense of urgency about moving and an inclination toward delay, according to their public comments and recent interviews."<br /><br />MrBeachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58845660938578517592016-09-12T22:30:13.711+01:002016-09-12T22:30:13.711+01:00@LB - I'm no expert on FI (still on Ch2 of Fab...@LB - I'm no expert on FI (still on Ch2 of Fabozzi) but why would a sell-off in JP sov debt necessarily be negative for US equities? Firstly the Japanese attempt to steepen the yield curve might entail bolstering asset purchases of corp bonds and ETFs (both domestic & froeign), and secondly even if a bond tantrum emerged (a la 2013 & 2015) might this not cause investors to flee to the safety of Nasdaq biotech stocks and the like?<br /><br />Interested in anyone's thoughts.12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21943783819251534642016-09-12T21:54:56.296+01:002016-09-12T21:54:56.296+01:00@Pol - Haha thx :) And sry bro, no twitter, I'...@Pol - Haha thx :) And sry bro, no twitter, I'm more Insta & Snapchat streaks yo ;)<br /><br />So our PnL is back on track, and we're attracting quite a lot of investor interest. Following questions re: our methodology and ability to produce alpha, I'd like to quote Downtown Josh Brown who earlier summed it all up rather nicely: <i>"If the entire market is being driven by PhD geniuses and their algorithms, then the only edge available is to be stupid."</i><br />Word up. We remain long spooz (SPX target 5000) - models and bottles bitchez.12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17264649997121320112016-09-12T21:44:22.089+01:002016-09-12T21:44:22.089+01:00@johno - that is s splendid - after failing misera...@johno - that is s splendid - after failing miserably at the test (getting inflation up via perpetual QE and NIRP) BoJ wants to doctor the report card (the steepness of the yield curve) directly.<br /><br />Unlike fiscal stimulus, this wouldn't even pass the laugh test - didn't a courageous central banker whose name escapes me, try the very opposite of that (operation twist)?<br /><br />I believe next they will massage the yield curve into a sine wave, then white noise, and then finally a dot.<br /><br />Oh wait….washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11658278745882201532016-09-12T21:27:48.181+01:002016-09-12T21:27:48.181+01:00The shocker (or is it already old news?) for bonds...The shocker (or is it already old news?) for bonds could come from a BoJ steepening policy. Reuters has been the best source on the BoJ for some time now, and they're reporting BoJ is studying several options to steepen the curve. Kuroda and Nakaso have talked about the need for a steeper curve since July, or so I understand. Already, there's evidence of a shift: BoJ planned September purchases for >10 year maturities is down materially from January. Meanwhile there's talk of the government expanding ultra-long issuance. How much is already in the price? I don't know, but tonight's 20Y JGB auction will be interesting.<br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32013854560672332032016-09-12T21:15:04.809+01:002016-09-12T21:15:04.809+01:00Back to a previous theme
NZDAUD pushed through 97...Back to a previous theme<br /><br />NZDAUD pushed through 97 above July's high<br />Dairy auction prices rising back to ten year average from the lows<br /><br />https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/<br /><br />Getting near the top surely.... watching the milk auction prices<br /><br />TraderJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17870637335405087110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60411951252387024782016-09-12T21:02:56.298+01:002016-09-12T21:02:56.298+01:00Punters are missing the real action today.
It...Punters are missing the real action today. <br /><br />It's not what the equity markets think about Lael Brainerd being Lael Brainerd. The real action is in the bond market. Treasuries didn't catch a bid today. Bonds were selling off globally - and they are going to continue to sell off - b/c of what the BoJ and ECB are NOT going to do, irrespective of what the FED is or is not going to do. Equities will eventually follow suit.<br /><br />In addition, the Fed can and will use this September meeting to signal that December is ON, no matter what (in an echo of last year). Higher long end rates and a firm tone in the dollar will bring this equity market down, September hike or no hike. Then there is the issue of the mysteriously fainting Democratic presidential nominee, which is becoming a real concern at this point.<br /><br />Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14534368801815137162016-09-12T20:54:15.559+01:002016-09-12T20:54:15.559+01:00Saved myself this morning. It's better to enjo...Saved myself this morning. It's better to enjoy some holiday now TheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6678948677132160782016-09-12T19:24:50.563+01:002016-09-12T19:24:50.563+01:00Interesting day. Lucky, so far. Exited SPY put spr...Interesting day. Lucky, so far. Exited SPY put spread and got long EM risk earlier, when it didn't look like massive, technically-driven selling was coming through. Was also willing to bet that Brainard wouldn't swerve hawkish, too. That was an easy bet. The nail-biter was and still is the long end. The breakout there is clear and is the real Damocles sword hanging over markets, IMO. Receiving rates in EM seems a good bet to me (EM inflation is going down and there's room for rates to fall), as does long Chinese H shares, but both (especially the former) need DM long rates to behave (the Fed will take care of the short end). <br /><br />I don't see much reason to own or short the US market here. Interesting post by Celeriac1972 @ 2:58.<br /><br /><br /><br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41852715900143981212016-09-12T19:07:36.598+01:002016-09-12T19:07:36.598+01:00price action is insane.
was kicking myself for c...price action is insane. <br /><br />was kicking myself for covering some of my short on Friday. now i'm kicking myself for putting some of it back in this morning. great!abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70047729263408087972016-09-12T19:06:36.781+01:002016-09-12T19:06:36.781+01:00Brainard is out in January. No way she is ever vot...Brainard is out in January. No way she is ever voting for a hike. It's widely expected she will dissent if there was a vote for a hike. Market gonna do what market gonna do. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21424385091433624142016-09-12T18:50:10.773+01:002016-09-12T18:50:10.773+01:00I think equities and bonds wont go back to low cor...I think equities and bonds wont go back to low correlation, or at least as much as they've perhaps been before. They'll continue to go the same way. Simply because today equities rising doesn't have to mean at all that fundamentals are improving and vice versa and hence bonds should be going down. Currently it's much more about low yields are good and high yields are bad for the TINA narrative. And when one looks at banks "analysis" for the retail crowd it's pretty much all their arguments are based on: bc CB's will buy everything and the alternative is crap. To me it looks like TINA is the single most crucial base on which everything else has been leveraged. And I think that's basically my own (more or less stereotypical representative of the retail crowd, I think) and many others basis on holding equities. The valuations by themselves are terrible considering the risks to growth. <br /><br />This certainly looks like there is a CB narrative fatigue, where now even moderately dovish is regarded as hawkish. The standards of expectations are changing. And indeed it's also mathematics, as the debt base gets larger you simply need more nominal debt to keep the same growth rate (larger QE). Draghi again whined that every country that has fiscal room should do everything they can on that aspect. The more likely it is probably the less reason to own equities. I don't think fiscal stimulus will have a long lasting effect on the economy as most of the potential things it probably would be concentrated on will not be anything productive in the long term but rather a one time waste, but it might certainly be on the play book menu.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12205800562023608162016-09-12T17:33:39.561+01:002016-09-12T17:33:39.561+01:00Pol. It's all Snapchat of P&L and Instagra...Pol. It's all Snapchat of P&L and Instagram of his spoils. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7376068322205582152016-09-12T17:02:28.316+01:002016-09-12T17:02:28.316+01:0012yoHFM .. are you on twitter? I want to follow.. ...12yoHFM .. are you on twitter? I want to follow.. If not please start up. <br />PolPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24396852120854154122016-09-12T17:00:56.554+01:002016-09-12T17:00:56.554+01:00"@Anon 4:44 - I feel that today is a 'gen..."@Anon 4:44 - I feel that today is a 'generational buying opportunity'. In my 13 mths of institutional experience I've rarely seen such a bullish opportunity as this..."<br /><br />12yoHFM - you are a genius. if ever they were going to make a rerun of Max Headroom (a UK TV prog in the 1980's when your parents were born) based on a CNBC character you should be it. Superb script. <br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33903008879371507912016-09-12T16:57:28.310+01:002016-09-12T16:57:28.310+01:00@Anon 4:44 - I feel that today is a 'generatio...@Anon 4:44 - I feel that today is a 'generational buying opportunity'. In my 13 mths of institutional experience I've rarely seen such a bullish opportunity as this... 12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39610025326364606362016-09-12T16:44:15.031+01:002016-09-12T16:44:15.031+01:00@12yo,
I'm waiting for your show up to double...@12yo, <br />I'm waiting for your show up to double my short.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10462934143139914542016-09-12T16:10:53.622+01:002016-09-12T16:10:53.622+01:00@4:01 Everyone JBTFD in anticipation of the QE4 I ...@4:01 Everyone JBTFD in anticipation of the QE4 I mentioned on Fri :)12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57947987287831282922016-09-12T16:01:06.895+01:002016-09-12T16:01:06.895+01:00so much for the follow through from forced sellers...so much for the follow through from forced sellers... <br /><br />did anyone find a good argument for todays mini-reversal (more impressive intra-equity)? <br />EuropeanBullnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71608724685739418222016-09-12T15:03:01.681+01:002016-09-12T15:03:01.681+01:00From the QE lover
Looking ahead, though, my great...From the QE lover<br /><br />Looking ahead, though, my greatest concern does not center on policy mistakes from Europe or Japan. These guys have an established tradition of screwing up, and I have been out of the DAX and NKY trades since last December precisely for that reason. I’m also not particularly worried about some worthless broken trophies. My fear, as you may have guessed from all of the recent missives, is the post-Brexit rise in populist US politics. Free mobility of capital and labor looks to be increasingly under threat. Thus, the real return on developed-market capital (aka spoos) is becoming increasingly risky. And that of course comes at a time when accommodative Fed policies, which could be used to offset those lower real returns, are being threatened by the very same populist politics. Fed bashing, as I noted in last week’s commentary, is on a tear. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44275830542517945372016-09-12T14:58:21.619+01:002016-09-12T14:58:21.619+01:00Interesting obs on Vix for 12yo..
http://quantifi...Interesting obs on Vix for 12yo..<br /><br />http://quantifiableedges.com/vixspike/Celeriac1972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50189332830023188202016-09-12T14:14:03.308+01:002016-09-12T14:14:03.308+01:00@abee, thank you for color!
Action in the bund no...@abee, thank you for color!<br /><br />Action in the bund not looking too bad. 3Y and 10Y UST auctions at 1:00pm EST followed by Brainard at 1:15 will be pivotal.johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58069596059138178712016-09-12T13:14:11.274+01:002016-09-12T13:14:11.274+01:00Gap and Crap part 2 dead ahead…. another tough mor...Gap and Crap part 2 dead ahead…. another tough morning for vol sellers. This market needs a good purge to cleanse itself of high stock-bond correlations and a massive short vol position. [We are long vix calls].<br /><br />Agree with @crackerjack that rates are the key to this correction. Until bond yields stabilize, this will continue.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22766990766172131292016-09-12T12:53:42.597+01:002016-09-12T12:53:42.597+01:00Current tantrum is all about rates. Tough to see p...Current tantrum is all about rates. Tough to see positive newsflow before Sep 20-21<br /><br /><a href="http://crackerjackfinance.com/2016/09/volatility-suppression-challenged/" rel="nofollow">End of volatility suppression in the near-term?</a>Crackerjack Financehttp://crackerjackfinance.com/noreply@blogger.com