tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7438046665967170506..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The Alternative Universe NewswireMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4134294845959768602009-01-30T19:23:00.000+00:002009-01-30T19:23:00.000+00:00Re: exotics books --- in what asset class? For FX...Re: exotics books --- in what asset class? For FX, probably Wystup's book. Just bear in mind 1) different structures are popular in different markets (e.g. var swaps in equities or barriers in FX) and 2) prior to July 2007, the pace of innovation meant books quickly became outdated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11428048767015602572009-01-30T12:53:00.000+00:002009-01-30T12:53:00.000+00:00I hear ya, Carlo. The reason that it is so easy t...I hear ya, Carlo. The reason that it is so easy to take potshots at Gordon is that he would tell anyone who would listen (and plenty who wouldn't) how great he was at running the economy and elinimating the "Tory boom/bust cycle."<BR/><BR/>And I guess if Gordo is going to blame the UK's travails on 'the global economy', we should probably withdraw some of his prior kudos for just coat-tailing the global economy as well!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34588932593700850032009-01-30T12:08:00.000+00:002009-01-30T12:08:00.000+00:00MM, you were clear enough. I'm not a fan of blairi...MM, you were clear enough. I'm not a fan of blairites either... I was just pointing out that the chart can be used by any kind of opposition party. For example that kind of argument is used in Italy against Berlusconi (who had the luck of being elected just before the last two bubble bursts) exactly by the same opposition party who happens to be inspired by Gordon and Tony.<BR/><BR/>I'm not a fan of Berluska either, but i find it funny. That's all.<BR/><BR/>CarloAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41235527968043116312009-01-29T22:08:00.000+00:002009-01-29T22:08:00.000+00:00Carlo and Jonathan: re the last point, I did prov...Carlo and Jonathan: re the last point, I did provide an admittedly small disclaimer that I was being a tad harsh. While the performance of the FTSE is driven by more than the quality of the politicians in charge, it <I>is</I> the case that Gordon has spent most of the last dozen years crowing about putting an end to boom and bust...which he clearly has not.<BR/><BR/>And so, as I said in the post, I thought that the little chart (not created by me, mind you) was too good not to post...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52427339861906923012009-01-29T21:15:00.000+00:002009-01-29T21:15:00.000+00:00Wonderfully entertaining post. The rear view mirro...Wonderfully entertaining post. The rear view mirror was a nice touch. Thought you were a little hard on Gordon, though I understand you were at him for politico-lying rather than being unable to see the future.<BR/><BR/>I thought you were going toward China not Russia. They at times seem determined to own every dollar in the world rather than let the RMB appreciate.jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372999828751252978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84782396714661099042009-01-29T20:42:00.000+00:002009-01-29T20:42:00.000+00:001) Well, I think more concern about domestic infla...1) Well, I think more concern about domestic inflation and not allowing the money supply to balloon 50% y/y (which occurred courtesy of CBR's intervention policies), and less about trying to prevent foreigners from making money on your currency (which was sustaining a tremendous positive terms of trade shock) would have been a really swell place to start.<BR/><BR/>In the case of the C and E Europeans, perhaps attempting to discourage the pandemic of foreign currency borrowing that has occurred (Hungary in particular is notable for this) might have been/would be a good idea.<BR/><BR/>3) Not personally, though I imagine the BBG website has a decent one listed.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85539480155421074742009-01-29T20:24:00.000+00:002009-01-29T20:24:00.000+00:00MM,1. What was the correct strategy for CBR during...MM,<BR/><BR/>1. What was the correct strategy for CBR during all these years? What should CBR do now?<BR/><BR/>2. Same question regarding an Eastern European CB (Poland, Hungary, Romania)<BR/><BR/>3. Could you recommend a good book on exotic options?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14188520030757827812009-01-29T17:52:00.000+00:002009-01-29T17:52:00.000+00:00about the last one: one (who said krugman) could d...about the last one: one (who said krugman) could do the same with GWB, or whatever combination of left wing-right wing alternation you can find among the industrialized world.<BR/><BR/>so this make me wonder if governments really count that much for the economy...<BR/><BR/>carloAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66653024471615206632009-01-29T17:37:00.000+00:002009-01-29T17:37:00.000+00:00I am, actually, because a)unlike the klepocrats, I...I am, actually, because a)unlike the klepocrats, I don't own any of their crappy domestic financial assets that are swiftly approaching zero in hard currency terms, b) unlike the kleptocrats, I can make money without stealing it, c) unlike the kleptocrats, I don't have to worry about getting thrown in jail or shot if I get on somebody's bad side, and d) unlike you, I possess the triple digit IQ required to read and turn off the CAPS LOCK key.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08951375217497888943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33940809406852581632009-01-29T17:29:00.000+00:002009-01-29T17:29:00.000+00:00Someone's testy today...Someone's testy today...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73318546432496351252009-01-29T17:16:00.000+00:002009-01-29T17:16:00.000+00:00WHAT IS YOUR POINT ABOUT RUSSIA YOU DICK?THEY HAVE...WHAT IS YOUR POINT ABOUT RUSSIA YOU DICK?<BR/><BR/>THEY HAVE ENOUGH CASH TO DOLLARISE THE MONEY SUPPLY.<BR/>THEY ARE BUYING BACK RUBLES CHEAPER THAN WHERE THEY SOLD OVER MANY YEARS. THEY TOOK DOLLARS FROM FOREIGNERS ON THE WAY IN IN EXHANGE FOR RUBLES AND THEY HAVE SUCCESSFULLY PREVENTED SYSTEMIC RISK BY SELLING DOLLARS BACK TO LOCAL BANKS AND RECAPITALISING THEM WHILE TAKING OUT A NICE SPREAD ON THE FX. THEY RESISTED PRESSURE FOR MANY YEARS TO DIVERSIFY THEIR RESERVES OUT OF TREASURIES INTO EQUITIES AND RISKIER FIXED INCOME INVESTMENTS. NOW WHO IS LAUGHING?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40651929088528710782009-01-29T16:29:00.000+00:002009-01-29T16:29:00.000+00:00over 10yrs he'd need about 7% per annum compou...over 10yrs he'd need about 7% per annum compounded to double his money ..to counter the 300-600 XAU/EUR move <BR/><BR/>Despite JCT's best efforts to hike Europe back to the stone age we havent seen anything like 7% average euro yields. <BR/><BR/>So lets diss that idea.. <BR/><BR/>HOWEVER... GB could have invested it in a Standard Life CASH fund <BR/>And maybe eeeked out a reasonable cash performance.. <BR/>Right up to the point it turns out NOT to be cash but some "Cash like" non cash product. At which point he'd have dropped another 8% in a day or so.<BR/><BR/>SO nope that doesnt work either .. <BR/><BR/>So Agree with MM .. whichever way you look at it .. he's f*&ked it> <BR/> <BR/>Is there some law protecting MPs from prosecution if they are standing in the House of Commons when they lie?<BR/><BR/>PS .. check out www.thedailymash.co.uk for a lovely piece on IMF/UK/ Darling interaction ..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19741626658102439062009-01-29T16:04:00.000+00:002009-01-29T16:04:00.000+00:00re interest, gold can be leased.re interest, gold can be leased.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6275266047852056612009-01-29T14:55:00.000+00:002009-01-29T14:55:00.000+00:00Good point re interest...though I'd submit that th...Good point re interest...though I'd submit that the opportunity loss of his trade is still collossal.<BR/><BR/>Similarly, the CBR has had to finance its rerserve holdings, which I would submit have likely created a loss for the bank.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69148716579419951962009-01-29T14:44:00.000+00:002009-01-29T14:44:00.000+00:00mm you forget that Gordon got some interest paidfo...mm you forget that Gordon got some interest paid<BR/>for his euros, he would miss that in gold<BR/>Though still the trade was a loss, but<BR/>less colossal than you suggestAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10695620739058469252009-01-29T14:13:00.000+00:002009-01-29T14:13:00.000+00:00could not agree more with you mm; as i right this ...could not agree more with you mm; as i right this russia is selling euros in the market.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21271244217889384522009-01-29T14:01:00.000+00:002009-01-29T14:01:00.000+00:00I wouldn't have any faith in ol' Gordon if he was ...I wouldn't have any faith in ol' Gordon if he was looking after the finances of my local scout group, let alone be in charge of one of the world's biggest economies. The UK is looking likely to slip down the world's league table quicker than Liverpool FC.<BR/><BR/>On a similar theme, Nassim Nicholas Taleb said last June that he wouldn’t trust Fed Ben to even drive his car.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01187416648160477630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29668657556025052702009-01-29T13:55:00.000+00:002009-01-29T13:55:00.000+00:00Dear Mr Man...Thank you for the belly laugh(s) !Dear Mr Man...<BR/><BR/>Thank you for the belly laugh(s) !Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16375988495585111745noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49501573009711793792009-01-29T13:46:00.000+00:002009-01-29T13:46:00.000+00:00@ALTuniBanks own world goverments@ALTuni<BR/><BR/>Banks own world govermentsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84738607530943613492009-01-29T13:34:00.000+00:002009-01-29T13:34:00.000+00:00MM, the Russians seems to be selling their gold to...MM, the Russians seems to be selling their gold to support the rubble.<BR/><BR/> - (RU) Russian Central Bank Gold/FX Reserves: $386.5B v $396.2B prior weekAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29033180799469547142009-01-29T13:33:00.000+00:002009-01-29T13:33:00.000+00:00I dont forget...:First trade: sell rub buy basket ...I dont forget...:<BR/>First trade: sell rub buy basket of USD and EUR (and some other stuff)<BR/>Second trade: buy rub sell basket or USD and EUR (and some other stuff)<BR/><BR/>They are buying back RUB at a net cheaper level as the basket has devalued. Theyve made a profit and they can hold this profit in whatever currency they choose.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81167557359662022762009-01-29T12:49:00.000+00:002009-01-29T12:49:00.000+00:00Anon....ah, but you forget about all the EUR/USD t...Anon....ah, but you forget about all the EUR/USD that they bought in the 1.40's, 1.50's, and (gulp) 1.60's, which they're now selling in the 1.30's and 1.20's. So they are making a profit in a toilet paper currency (RUB) and a loss in hard currency. Not good.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-92157743854707484182009-01-29T12:29:00.000+00:002009-01-29T12:29:00.000+00:00MM - need to broaden your reading a tad. Several o...MM - need to broaden your reading a tad. Several of the headlines had it as Putin reaches out to West, including the Moscow Times. Listened to a bit of his speech myself and, thru the rough translation admittedly, that was the expressed sentiments, coupled of course with some milder and rather well argued sentiments. There was also one of the better pieces in years in yesterday's WSJ oped on China's growth, savings, investment, trade and exchange rates. Relates Yuan more to these structural factors than deliberate currency manipulation and was well worth you and your readers time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48212564845972111742009-01-29T12:11:00.000+00:002009-01-29T12:11:00.000+00:00Your martingale comment on Russia seems misguided....Your martingale comment on Russia seems misguided. They spent years sselling rubles to buy dollars accumulating their reserves, and are now buying back rubles at progressively cheaper levels...Nice tradingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com