tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7392980834059626082..comments2024-03-29T15:07:48.008+00:00Comments on Macro Man: An exercise in connecting the dots: the Libor-OIS spreadMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16485815661162521442021-07-10T11:43:29.648+01:002021-07-10T11:43:29.648+01:00https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=34323687&...https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=34323687&postID=8476180327752991113&page=1&token=1625409926706มโน เอาเองhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07048743272464383784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44494569079867574012018-03-31T17:37:51.795+01:002018-03-31T17:37:51.795+01:00@LB, on dollar, I loaded up on DX futures and UUP ...@LB, on dollar, I loaded up on DX futures and UUP calls. Looking for 23.70 - 24.10 area to be broken. Stops above 24.10 will probably carry it to high 24s corresponding to a roughly four handle DXY move. Completely irrational considering the seasonals, right? Exactly...IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39968771202069729752018-03-30T08:30:32.338+01:002018-03-30T08:30:32.338+01:00Kind of an irrelevant statistic in a long-running ...Kind of an irrelevant statistic in a long-running bull market. Cbus20122https://www.blogger.com/profile/05555850300593186460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88936595870064319532018-03-30T02:28:44.730+01:002018-03-30T02:28:44.730+01:00The past 5 Aprils all have had positive returns:
...The past 5 Aprils all have had positive returns:<br /><br />2017 = 1.11%<br />2016 = 0.42%<br />2015 = 0.86%<br />2014 = 0.53%<br />2013 = 1.81%<br /><br />Makes one wonder whether next month will be different this time.Gushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05716889492671161586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55244920236773378832018-03-29T20:59:42.313+01:002018-03-29T20:59:42.313+01:00Quarter end window dressing meets weekly expiratio...Quarter end window dressing meets weekly expiration vol selling meets front running of the Q2 fund flows…<br /><br />I think IPA Is right, the bounce will probably have legs into next week. This sets up as a range between the moving averages. Bears may have to wait until the 50DMA comes into view as overhead resistance to cap the trading range. It won't be too long after that before the range ends - when the 50DMA meets the 200DMA we will see another round of high velocity selling.<br /><br />For the mean time, LB intends to study the charts for crude and the dollar.<br />Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9038378715750334992018-03-29T20:20:32.422+01:002018-03-29T20:20:32.422+01:00FAANGs are flashing reversal signals. Daily engulf...FAANGs are flashing reversal signals. Daily engulfing, double bottom, inverted head and shoulders, trendline and horizontal supports - pick the one you like and you will see it today. I don't care about volume or end of the month or any other rebuttal, price is right most of the time. The farther we bounce from YL the more of a chance we have bottomed. FAANGs don't necessarily have to go back to their highs, they just need to stabilize and other sectors will take over on the rotation theme within SPX. I am a firm believer this is a trading range and one to stay here for a while. Don't care whether you are in agreement with me or not, as the matter of fact, this is what makes the markets. But, respect and restraint need to be a part of the dabate. So for that matter, @amps, need to watch your mouth, buddy. Just imagine the punch you'd receive at the pub for your potty remarks.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7342304728066731972018-03-29T17:46:19.231+01:002018-03-29T17:46:19.231+01:00Quarter-end plus Easter holidays makes for Scandin...Quarter-end plus Easter holidays makes for Scandinavian fun and games ...johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87677567028049838052018-03-29T14:47:22.895+01:002018-03-29T14:47:22.895+01:00Hooray, was able to sell off my short-term positio...Hooray, was able to sell off my short-term positions I opened yesterday on the modest bounce this morning for modest gains. The market loves being up in the AM, only to drag into the closing bell. Probably retail BTFD in the AM followed by institutional selling in the PM. Once the corporate bid comes back in when we're not in blackout period, I would imagine the PM selling will stabilize more (unless fundamentals have deteriorated such that retail buyers have capitulated moreso).Cbus20122https://www.blogger.com/profile/05555850300593186460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46883275277126539982018-03-29T08:40:31.858+01:002018-03-29T08:40:31.858+01:00Enjoy it you bastard!Enjoy it you bastard!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43603671042189953912018-03-29T08:38:07.449+01:002018-03-29T08:38:07.449+01:00Uknown. No. Let's get the market straight now....Uknown. No. Let's get the market straight now. I had a pop that used to trade this market and you know what set him off to retirement. The welfare of greyhounds that he punted on. That's what tipped him over the edge. This bastard is a natural evil f##ckwit.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51030185628435970012018-03-29T08:26:56.543+01:002018-03-29T08:26:56.543+01:00IPA these things don’t necessarily trade or work o...IPA these things don’t necessarily trade or work out like you suggest.<br /><br />The ones that survive for ages have liquidity/assets. Tesla has cash burn and debt and survives on the kindness of others which has historically been fuelled by hope. They need money soon and whether they can get is completely dependent on where their shares are within five weeks. I think there is a non zero chance of imminent bankruptcy.<br /><br />I also don’t believe the technical levels matter so much here, as we have broken through nearly all technical levels. Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02660491805735271780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89424439013369550762018-03-29T07:55:29.604+01:002018-03-29T07:55:29.604+01:00Oh...there's IPA on stony creek road ringing h...Oh...there's IPA on stony creek road ringing his pals to hit the market. While his mate is on the floor of some pyscho ward. Good on ya f##kwit. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38216714652135121762018-03-29T07:50:01.770+01:002018-03-29T07:50:01.770+01:00IPA.....you see that photo......i hope those share...IPA.....you see that photo......i hope those shares f##kin plummet on you , you dirty dog. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3649438376443427442018-03-29T07:47:09.181+01:002018-03-29T07:47:09.181+01:00A f##kin dirty dog!A f##kin dirty dog!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35619249484625628922018-03-29T07:45:51.696+01:002018-03-29T07:45:51.696+01:00Hear that telsa... your a dog of a stock. Hear that telsa... your a dog of a stock. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20652895850286498372018-03-29T07:45:04.530+01:002018-03-29T07:45:04.530+01:00Piss off, IPA. telsa on two wheels ain't no ca...Piss off, IPA. telsa on two wheels ain't no car. He's a dog of stock!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33021782252045828062018-03-29T05:41:31.523+01:002018-03-29T05:41:31.523+01:00Guys, Tesla is not going out of business. Pick ano...Guys, Tesla is not going out of business. Pick another company to bet against if that's your thesis. Like SHLD was a good one all last year. Been yapping about it here with a target of $0. Now, nothing wrong with playing the driverless car wreck for a week or two, but know your exits and be quick, Tesla goes from 0 to 60 in 2 seconds. Trendline and horizontal laminate support comes in at around $235-242 with a double top box extension target at $228. I say that $14-wide zone invites new buyers. Momentum is scraping the floor, this would not be the best time to sell a stock that can go up $40-60 points to backtest the double top neckline at $294, imho.<br /><br />Speaking of backtests, DXY is doing just that, I think. Specifically, USD/JPY may tag 106 (broken descending wedge upper trendline touch) and take off again. Targets: 107.30, 108.15, 108.82, 109.21, 110.17<br />Also, EUR/USD has a sell zone in 1.2340 - 1.2380 and could do a serious damage all the way down to 1.19IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82833716392362533462018-03-29T04:32:10.567+01:002018-03-29T04:32:10.567+01:00I'm going to be fair. 100 years from now AI pr...I'm going to be fair. 100 years from now AI programs will be able to detect flows and behavioral sentiment on a global scale when analyzing particular country index's . The globalization of monetary and production factors and superannuation are the main culprits. Global markets are in a new paradigm. The old saying nothing changes except price levels is wrong in one variable.....why do sellers outweigh buyers....reflexive point. The way these dickheads have managed the market will make AI programs a thing of the future. Its just a matter of catching up....to what exactly.....a couple smiley's on the dance floor for me! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69685100485639673152018-03-29T00:24:06.819+01:002018-03-29T00:24:06.819+01:00Tesla would be the prime candidate for “hallmark b...Tesla would be the prime candidate for “hallmark bankruptcy”. Their rate of cash burn and likely working capital moves indicate a decent chance they are out of cash by May-June without a sizeable raise. It’s valuation has always been bitcoin-esc ie 250 is no different than 125 or 60, given intrinsic, and now the whole market seems to want them to fail. It could happen very fast and bring some sanity to tech. The market reaction to next weeks delivery report will be key to how it plays out ie whether they can place 3-5bn equity.<br /><br />A case of hubris in so many waysUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02660491805735271780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12881587658188928392018-03-28T23:09:45.765+01:002018-03-28T23:09:45.765+01:00Is tomorrow the day the S&P finally busts thru...Is tomorrow the day the S&P finally busts thru the 200DMA decisively, signalling a regime shift has occurred? Or will it just kiss it due to end-of-quarter trimmings?Gushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05716889492671161586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20511727496057092682018-03-28T20:09:55.433+01:002018-03-28T20:09:55.433+01:00"You can observe a lot by just watching."..."You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi BerraLeftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55292809351270522942018-03-28T20:09:07.785+01:002018-03-28T20:09:07.785+01:00During most days now (face-rippers excepted) there...During most days now (face-rippers excepted) there is a big red candle at around 3pm as volume picks up into the close.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17444494486794250262018-03-28T20:05:09.056+01:002018-03-28T20:05:09.056+01:003pm... the bear cometh....3pm... the bear cometh....Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41912646772362682912018-03-28T19:45:01.230+01:002018-03-28T19:45:01.230+01:00@Nico
During or at the start of every recession, ...@Nico<br /><br />During or at the start of every recession, there are hallmark companies that go bust. During the dotcom era, there was a litany of non-profitable dotcom businesses, and of course the more egregious enron and other types of scandals.<br /><br />During the great financial crisis, we of course had the bank and financial company busts like Bear Stearns, Lehman, and others. <br /><br /><br />This time around? Who knows for sure who it will be, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla is one of those companies. We already have had a lot of retail companies silently go belly up over the past year or so. I know there are supposedly tons of zombie companies out there as well.Cbus20122https://www.blogger.com/profile/05555850300593186460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57588607606497027552018-03-28T19:39:04.283+01:002018-03-28T19:39:04.283+01:00Tesla is another example of 'market priced to ...Tesla is another example of 'market priced to perfection that cannot tolerate one iota of imperfection. In present case discounting the best possible growth through mass production which might not happen at all. Big car companies are simply waiting to Tesla to disappear. Which makes its rapidly shrinking market cap still pretty hefty at $43bn.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.com