tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7333875905388822657..comments2024-03-28T00:23:22.838+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Dallas Fed Paper: PCE Inflation to be Revised HigherMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19721344668584199552017-09-03T22:41:49.414+01:002017-09-03T22:41:49.414+01:00Sad state of affairs. Gold @ 1500 by the end of Se...Sad state of affairs. Gold @ 1500 by the end of September? God help S. Korea!IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67293540394372467582017-09-03T01:22:55.242+01:002017-09-03T01:22:55.242+01:00@johno, thanks for the links, very interesting. Th...@johno, thanks for the links, very interesting. The chart below may argue for just that. The 0% line is $92 on DXY.<br /><br />http://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$GOLD&compare=$USD,$WTIC&id=p04873558824IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35925862533811202402017-09-02T22:15:48.165+01:002017-09-02T22:15:48.165+01:00I will note that the RMB-settled HK gold contract ...I will note that the RMB-settled HK gold contract (XDPA Comdty) only trades ~$10m/day, so can't say it's taken off. Still, early days ....johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91249865757563116592017-09-02T18:34:48.404+01:002017-09-02T18:34:48.404+01:00Hey IPA,
As a DXY and real rates story, it's ...Hey IPA,<br /><br />As a DXY and real rates story, it's hard to get too enthusiastic about gold. BUT, there is perhaps a new emergent narrative. Namely, oil and gold settled in RMB. I give you a link to the most recent article on this and then a link to an absolute must-read by GaveKal that touches on the subject and puts it in context.<br /><br />https://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Commodities/China-sees-new-world-order-with-oil-benchmark-backed-by-gold?page=1<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-19/gavekal-coming-clash-empires-russias-role-global-game-changer<br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84337439753476113842017-09-02T05:00:48.696+01:002017-09-02T05:00:48.696+01:00@johno, what does not go down will go up. Both cru...@johno, what does not go down will go up. Both crude and gold will surprise to the upside, imho. I have year-end targets which may be too aggressive for some: WTI to $60 and GC to $1500. Also, looking for related equities to benefit and put on a face-ripping rally into the end of the year as well. Hence, GDX to 32, XLE to 70, XOP to 40, OIH to 30. It's not that hard to achieve if you look at charts from a long-term perspective. The fundamentals and the risk change on almost daily basis. I simply can't keep up. Will stick with charts for now.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71323447239443198422017-09-01T18:14:23.168+01:002017-09-01T18:14:23.168+01:00Oil is capped by shale => boon to world consume...Oil is capped by shale => boon to world consumers (we're safely past the deflationary hit from the '14 collapse too, though there's a slow-burning issue for Gulf oil producers a couple years out). Inflation is dead => central banks will tighten slowly. Whether you think USD could have a snap-back or not, there's growing acceptance that USD peaked and is in a bear market. Sure, in the next EM recession there may be a big dollar squeeze given all the USD-denominated debt out there, but that could be years from now. Between now and then, we may have a dollar liquidity suck in Q4 post-debt ceiling resolution, but maybe that just affects xccy basis. ISM is highest since 2011, household's debt service to disposable income is the lowest since the 1980s, and yet the Russell is flat on the year! China is fine and it won't be apparent until Q1 how seriously they're going address leverage/tighten. It just seems very hard to justify being short risk here. Geopolitical risk can only be played via deep, deep out-of-the-money options because the market will never price it until the bad scenario has actually happened (fading geopolitical risk is maybe a stronger reflex now than JBTFD).<br /><br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73097363668342583152017-09-01T17:02:33.822+01:002017-09-01T17:02:33.822+01:00Inflation is down for the count. Phillips curve is...Inflation is down for the count. Phillips curve is binned (see latest Philly Fed research). Meanwhile, world growth is great -- China, Europe, and today we see US ISM at highest since 2011! So maybe we see corporate investment picking up, just as CB's throttle back balance sheet growth, and we get higher rates. Higher nominal rates + low inflation = higher real rates => hard to be fundamentally bullish gold, especially with this dollar action. I admit though, there's really no geopolitical premium in gold here and the technicals (which others know far better than me) are interesting.<br /><br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30817814559049316852017-09-01T15:39:48.408+01:002017-09-01T15:39:48.408+01:00Typical NFP hilarity. The ECB-sources article minu...Typical NFP hilarity. The ECB-sources article minutes after a disappointing #. Cost me a bit, but have to laugh (after some swearing and cursing).<br /><br />Have to respect this dollar action. 92 holds again.<br /><br /><br /> johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73775306182131840432017-09-01T03:25:59.005+01:002017-09-01T03:25:59.005+01:00Guys, grab some nat gas here. Coiled spring will u...Guys, grab some nat gas here. Coiled spring will unwind above 3.10 and take the price all the way up to 3.40 on a 3-mo old box measured move. Got some inverted h+s formation inside the box too (just to spice things up a bit). Been yapping about 3.10 level for a while. I think the time has finally come to get above it for good. The storage glut is over. If a new storm comes into the Gulf, all bets are off for shorts.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82285918697463162652017-08-31T23:15:55.522+01:002017-08-31T23:15:55.522+01:00Wow, wasn't paying attention to that, IPA.
We...Wow, wasn't paying attention to that, IPA.<br /><br />Went back to net short USD this morning. Not badly timed. I'm starting to think the dollar is going to have to get really ugly (DXY=88?) before we get a proper rally. Still time (months) before the Treasury-driven liquidity suck that could give USD some bid. Interesting to see gold holding above the 1307-ish level some (oldschoolmacro.com) have argued is a regime dividing line.johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14459747984568290202017-08-31T19:13:15.794+01:002017-08-31T19:13:15.794+01:00A full-fledged panic in RBOB. Things are so out of...A full-fledged panic in RBOB. Things are so out of whack. Sep contract is up into the stratosphere, simply a blood bath for shorts, up 14% just today (well passed my $2 target). WTI is looking to do some damage here as well, imho. Shorts are scrambling to cover. Another storm is possibly coming into Gulf. Not good... Just don't short those things right now, serious shortage, will last for a while.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82282128540919012462017-08-30T20:41:00.534+01:002017-08-30T20:41:00.534+01:00Thanks, IPA. My guess is gold is going to move fro...Thanks, IPA. My guess is gold is going to move from here, higher or lower, i.e. distribution is bi-modal. Vol is cheap, so bought some puts in addition to the call spreads. Low conviction view, so sized small.<br /><br />Again flattened my net dollar exposure. Maybe Harvey clears the way for debt ceiling and funding resolutions sooner than anticipated. Maybe.<br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91836145971178881402017-08-30T18:00:45.118+01:002017-08-30T18:00:45.118+01:00@johno, on gold and dxy. Something interesting... ...@johno, on gold and dxy. Something interesting... Pull up 2009 weekly on dxy and see how similar the decline looks with this year. April marked the last time a close above 8ema was achieved in both years. It took all the way until Dec to overcome the downtrend (back then). Gold may be sensing this possible continued weakness in dxy still to come. Stoch was locked in embedded sell mode all the way back then, just like now. Rally to 8ema and sell it.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22469979898279172302017-08-30T16:03:20.173+01:002017-08-30T16:03:20.173+01:00Of course, every time I put some faith in "le...Of course, every time I put some faith in "levels" in markets, especially using intra-day or daily charts, I get stopped. We'll see whether that happens yet again. Anyway, as always, take my trades for what they're worth -- nothing, or maybe worse.johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25542868744492877952017-08-30T15:58:08.511+01:002017-08-30T15:58:08.511+01:00Impressive how gold has hung in here. Got long wit...Impressive how gold has hung in here. Got long with tight stop and also bought some GCV7 calls spreads (vol low, skew high => call spreads) risking 1 to make 4.<br /><br />Taken profit on yesterday's DXY trade. Want to see this hold above 92.75 to re-engage from long-side.<br /><br />Embarrassing confession: I bought some SPY put spreads. Yeah, yeah, money down the drain and all ...<br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37196635543019241342017-08-30T08:15:17.873+01:002017-08-30T08:15:17.873+01:00Gold - usd/jpy spread trade is off by 4%.Gold - usd/jpy spread trade is off by 4%.Skrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53978167575819586402017-08-30T04:06:01.555+01:002017-08-30T04:06:01.555+01:00All these TX refineries shutting down and WTI is s...All these TX refineries shutting down and WTI is still above $46? Makes no sense, right? What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Once the storm is gone (can't be soon enough) I feel like a relief rally will take WTI up to $50. XLE, XOP and OIH are sensing the rebound, building a s/t double bottom, smartly bounced off of their lows retests today. IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46028582128897477922017-08-29T22:38:28.007+01:002017-08-29T22:38:28.007+01:00Traveling the past week and now getting properly c...Traveling the past week and now getting properly caught up.<br /><br />Thought we'd get another no-news thrust higher in EURUSD from Jackson Hole and was long very short-dated 1.185-1.20 calls for that (had to be away from screens all day Friday, so wasn't going to run a cash position). Worked out and took off, putting some profits into 2-month call spread with RKI on top strike, which gives some nice extra gearing for hardly any extra premium. Similar idea to the 109-107 with 105 RKI on bottom strike I pitched here a couple weeks ago in USDJPY. Cashed out of my USDRUB short yesterday, my biggest delta-one position, leaving all FX exposures in option form except a small short USDARS.<br /><br />And then, we have today's price action. DXY goes clear through the bull's call-it-quits level at 92, and then rallies back above. Hope those bulls were using end-of-day close. This looks to be a possible near-term turning point for FX, so I neutralized my net short-dollar exposure and will see where we go in the next days. Actually, netting long now. That wasn't the plan .. I figured on being short up to the debt ceiling resolution, but I'll take a tight-stop gamble on today's price action.<br /><br />Another interesting one. EURCHF. Good for me in July, then closed out cash position and put 1/10th of the PnL in 1.14-1.145-strike calls cheapened with RKOs. Expiring before too long. I'm also long 1Y 1.20 digitals from not-too-shabby levels. I'm very familiar with the contra-case and everything I see is skeptical that EURCHF goes much higher, but ... look how EURCHF is holding up despite missile launches and gold breaking 1300. Speaking of gold, it seems to be at a critical level here. I was long through a call 1275-1300 call spread from spot=1230 (or 1240?), but took off too early when spot was in the 1270s.<br /><br />One theme I'm seeing the sell-side pickup is the re-building of cash balances by the UST post-debt ceiling resolution. This is going to be a USD liquidity suck of a couple hundred billion USD when it comes (though a liquidity injection up until the resolution). While the 3-month USDJPY basis hasn't yet moved much, it's moving in forward space, perhaps anticipating this. Some USD bulls seem to pin their hopes on this. Maybe.<br /><br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44506889986690513112017-08-29T05:54:17.075+01:002017-08-29T05:54:17.075+01:00That is really wanderful to be there and have the ...That is really wanderful to be there and have the information like that. Just take a look at it <a href="http://qualityenglishproofreading.com/" rel="nofollow">quality english proofreading services</a> use it.<br />smithendy@gmail.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09226609303174199878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76197660219383274312017-08-29T03:36:55.949+01:002017-08-29T03:36:55.949+01:00My year-end gold and GDX targets may be finally co...My year-end gold and GDX targets may be finally coming to life. Bought back GDX short 32 calls and will enjoy the ride on my long 24s. Traders are starting to think that Fed is not going to hike when the second largest economy in US is literally under water. US dollar has been pretty much in a freefall. Looks like the Up Kid vs Donald Duck fight is about to start. Ten rounds and a TKO? Gold will love all of the above into 1500, imho. Will add on pullbacks, if those ever present themselves. Is the 1300 level now the floor?IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81100019169856673302017-08-28T10:57:21.279+01:002017-08-28T10:57:21.279+01:00You loving this curse or what!
ps.....I'll be...You loving this curse or what!<br /><br />ps.....I'll be here forever cheering it on because I know its not about the money anymore.lol<br /><br />http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/murdoch-scores-owngoal-on-ten-network-20170828-gy5l5e.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32721871961903418982017-08-28T04:32:08.240+01:002017-08-28T04:32:08.240+01:00Pretty surreal footage coming in from Houston. See...Pretty surreal footage coming in from Houston. Seems like the entire city is under water. I think we'll see $2 RBOB by Labor Day. To anyone affected by this monster storm, please stay safe! Our thoughts and prayers are with you!!IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46437675240901215352017-08-27T23:22:13.251+01:002017-08-27T23:22:13.251+01:00Its now 8.30 am in Australia and just in case you ...Its now 8.30 am in Australia and just in case you missed it Murdoch and Packer. Shove your silver spoons up your fucking ass and fuck off!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81961643454901232142017-08-27T12:53:17.148+01:002017-08-27T12:53:17.148+01:00FUCKOFF!FUCKOFF!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66821678087066993042017-08-27T12:38:44.645+01:002017-08-27T12:38:44.645+01:00Hear that Murdoch, Hear that Packer. I don't g...Hear that Murdoch, Hear that Packer. I don't give a fuck anymore. Begone!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com