tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7328209220904413282..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: It Don't Mean A Thing.....?!?!?!?!Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56225283956085634752010-02-21T08:23:47.931+00:002010-02-21T08:23:47.931+00:00This is a wonderful website!!
参考になります。
ありがとう。 Tha...This is a wonderful website!! <br />参考になります。<br />ありがとう。 Thank you!!<br />I'd be pleased if you exchange reciprocal link with me.<br />お互い頑張りましょう。<br />Easy investment<br /><a href="http://easy-happy-invest.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">http://easy-happy-invest.blogspot.com/</a><br /><br />この記事の中でリンクしています。(2010/02/21)<br /><a href="http://easy-happy-invest.blogspot.com/2010/02/head-and-shoulders-pattern.html" rel="nofollow">http://easy-happy-invest.blogspot.com/2010/02/head-and-shoulders-pattern.html</a><br />よかったらご覧になってください。investment catcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01047492727830789098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63821314410900023152010-02-20T05:44:55.886+00:002010-02-20T05:44:55.886+00:00In the past whenever the Discount Rate changed it ...In the past whenever the Discount Rate changed it was always regarded as a very concrete and significant change in the Fed's posture. Whether Fed Funds was like to follow shortly afterwards, or after a long pause, was always an open question but participants thereafter followed with an eagle eye the flow of data in the weeks and months that followed the Discount Rate move. There is absolutely no question that the attitude of Fed watchers changed fundamentally in the wake of a Discount Rate change, whatever gloss Fed governors might try to put on their action.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66785535407142703972010-02-19T21:53:06.132+00:002010-02-19T21:53:06.132+00:00Haha is that your Tiger joke.Haha is that your Tiger joke.Nicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59168663233030094432010-02-19T20:08:47.060+00:002010-02-19T20:08:47.060+00:00It Don't Mean a Thing if You Ain't Got Tha...It Don't Mean a Thing if You Ain't Got That Swing...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARtopyCtyrc&feature=related" rel="nofollow"> Silly Thing </a>leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63640794293588239012010-02-19T19:44:51.650+00:002010-02-19T19:44:51.650+00:00Agree David, not much improvement in the long end ...Agree David, not much improvement in the long end although it is the only part of the curve that is better on the day. But the classic addage is that an alert Fed is good for the long end, so even though it didn't work all that well (yet), especially given the timing I think that's what they were up to. Ben must have been pre-approved to go and could have been holding it in his pocket.Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32190885290059671712010-02-19T19:40:54.528+00:002010-02-19T19:40:54.528+00:00I agree LB, feels like the genie is still in the b...I agree LB, feels like the genie is still in the bottle. If you look at the week following option expiration going back 18 months or so, yes most expiration weeks are positive (and not surprisingly given we have been in a bull market for 11 months) but more reliably, the following week is a reversal, Magic Monday notwithstanding. This holds if expiration week is negative, too.Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42978799901583276082010-02-19T18:07:41.235+00:002010-02-19T18:07:41.235+00:00Re: S&P index options--nothing stands out too ...Re: S&P index options--nothing stands out too much. 15,000 increase in the 1100 put open interest.<br /><br />But then again, those are only what we can see. . .But What do I Know?noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91179106872251256032010-02-19T16:55:20.776+00:002010-02-19T16:55:20.776+00:00It may prove difficult to resist wagering on the o...It may prove difficult to resist wagering on the open-air shell games the Fed periodically orchestrates. After all, the "signal" was clear, more rate hikes sooner. <br /><br />However the Fed is out to trick the market, especially around sensitive dates. If you always take them at face value you're bound to regret it.<br /><br />There is no credible avenue for the Fed to shrink the its balance sheet. Nor the ECB, in fact they could conceivably expand further and venture into QE in an emergency situation.Ouzo Mannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73651953029121260152010-02-19T16:52:12.303+00:002010-02-19T16:52:12.303+00:00"The 12 month change in crude goods is + 25.2..."The 12 month change in crude goods is + 25.2%"<br /><br />This is all pretty much to be expected, no, given where $wtic and $gaso were trading last February? Now that crude is stuck in a range and with USD rising or at least stable, inflation seems likely to moderate. The y/y PPI numbers are probably going to peak soon if they have not already done so.<br /><br />Typical options expiration trading today. SPY 111 has already been tagged, I'm sure there is some interest in tagging 112 as well before the dollar rally resumes. Monday will be a very different picture from the usual Magic Monday, IMO.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85920399760335090832010-02-19T16:19:27.620+00:002010-02-19T16:19:27.620+00:00Everybody has it backwards. Raising the discount ...Everybody has it backwards. Raising the discount rate is significant, keeping the target rate low is meaningless.der Tillmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40994541167650316482010-02-19T15:56:26.512+00:002010-02-19T15:56:26.512+00:00Steve,
The long end is unch, so I don't think...Steve,<br /><br />The long end is unch, so I don't think the Fed's move had much impact. I agree, though, that the Fed is trying to help out next week's auctions with the Greek bond on deck. But I honestly don't think they get it: its likely they think the bond market is worried about growth-induced inflation, because the Fed looks at the world through an output-gap prism. I think they would be very surprised if yields rose on lower growth expectations, which is what happens in every other sovereign risk-driven bond market.<br /><br />Bottom line, IMO the long-end needs some love, and it will behave badly if the Fed doesn't show it (more QE).David Pearsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20605355714473122912010-02-19T15:25:35.405+00:002010-02-19T15:25:35.405+00:00January Producer Prices:
The 12 month change in c...January Producer Prices:<br /><br />The 12 month change in crude goods is + 25.2%; the 12 month change in intermediate goods is +4.6%, and the 12 month change in finished goods is +4.6%. A few months ago (Oct), the 12 month change in crude goods was -14.1%. In November, it rose to +4.7%. In December, it rose to +12.3%.<br /><br />http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htmjillnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87815749234378427782010-02-19T15:17:07.368+00:002010-02-19T15:17:07.368+00:00Shanghai Surprise?<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aI84EDDrU7a8&pos=7" rel="nofollow"> Shanghai Surprise? </a>leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34295318761443993372010-02-19T15:10:49.114+00:002010-02-19T15:10:49.114+00:00The timing of the move was rather interesting, com...The timing of the move was rather interesting, coming the evening before options expiration. Perhaps a reminder to the banks that they are trading with the Fed's dime, after all.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10462195323514400072010-02-19T14:55:18.170+00:002010-02-19T14:55:18.170+00:00David to my reckoning the bond market is why the F...David to my reckoning the bond market is why the Fed raised the rate, which also dovetails with the timing, ie they were worried about it. Bonds have gotten clocked and although the spread to mortgages is extremely low (about .40% according to my data, down from 1% last October) it's only a matter of time before they begin to rise.Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56664650999983328842010-02-19T14:49:27.173+00:002010-02-19T14:49:27.173+00:00Melki and MacroStudent are correct - the Discount ...Melki and MacroStudent are correct - the Discount Window borrowings are closer to $14bn and the correct Bloomberg time series is FARWOLPC Index . See the Primary Credit line item on Table 1 of the H.4.1 Release here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/h41.pdf<br /><br />- mojakusAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42274384372732897222010-02-19T14:30:10.623+00:002010-02-19T14:30:10.623+00:00This short-end "signaling" is irrelevant...This short-end "signaling" is irrelevant. The real question is what happens to the long end, and what Treasury long bond buyers "want". TYX is breaking out of a decades-long downtrend, and it happens to be at the neckline of a horrific inverse H&S. The bond market is what matters. <br /><br />So do bond buyers want tightening, so NGDP can be held in check and the curve flattened?<br /><br />Or do they want loosening, which means the ZIRP carry trade subsidy remains, and so that the Fed returns with more long-end QE?<br /><br />Answer me the above questions, and I'll tell you which way bonds, stocks and gold will head. Maybe today we'll get the answer to the "tightening" one -- if the long bond heads down with equities, we'll know.<br /><br />My answer: the long-end wants loosening, because its fear is not too much near-term NGDP growth, but sovereign risk.David Pearsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84992114490121822612010-02-19T14:04:35.820+00:002010-02-19T14:04:35.820+00:00I was one of 55% who thought there would be no FF ...I was one of 55% who thought there would be no FF change, but historically there is a high correlation between the two that cannot be ignored. That's to say, a discount rate hike almost always leads to FF hike within a few months.<br /><br />In addition, after a dicount rate hike (coming after an easing cycle) within 6 months the yield curve flattens 40bp on average over the last 75 years. So, the historically steep yield curve could is looking a bit extended now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34169315981566688342010-02-19T13:51:58.992+00:002010-02-19T13:51:58.992+00:00Nonsense...US equities will recover yesterday'...Nonsense...US equities will recover yesterday's after hour losses and push above yesterday's highs.<br /><br /><br />No need to make a thunderstorm in a cup of water.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68083711193459037542010-02-19T13:47:29.046+00:002010-02-19T13:47:29.046+00:00I think Bernanke and the doves did this to throw t...I think Bernanke and the doves did this to throw the hawks a bone. Either it is meaningless, or, if it really has a tightening effect, it is a mistake.<br /><br />Core CPI just came in -.1 for January and y/y inflation has probably already peaked. Check out the metal inventories and oil stocks in the U.S., gasoline demand is DOWN from last year.<br /><br />I predict this is not a sign of things to come, but may be disruptive enough to quiet those on the Fed hankering for early tightening.<br /><br />BTW, this is the first piece I've read that actually quantified how much borrowing at the discount rate was actually going on, thanks.Bob_in_MAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54723313408966234832010-02-19T13:44:12.776+00:002010-02-19T13:44:12.776+00:00But What, one analyst claims the Fed is "frie...But What, one analyst claims the Fed is "friendlier" the week of option expiryin terms of its day to day operations. It seems logical they know the calendar.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66894317234593900772010-02-19T13:35:23.462+00:002010-02-19T13:35:23.462+00:00Ah yes, the August 17 surprise rate cut--on a Thur...Ah yes, the August 17 surprise rate cut--on a Thursday night after someone had purchased a suspiciously large number of deep out-of-the-money S&P index calls that afternoon--maybe they were trying to help out the same guy on the short side of the trade this time? When I check the open interest numbers this morning I'll post if I see anything interesting. . . .<br /><br />I mean, I don't want to be mistrustful or paranoid, but why do these things on Thursday night before options expiration? Surely someone at the Fed must be aware of the calendar. . .But What do I Know?noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44869447328492829862010-02-19T13:18:24.423+00:002010-02-19T13:18:24.423+00:00Dear Macro Man, I am surprised by your data and ch...Dear Macro Man, I am surprised by your data and chart<br />the total funds concerned by the discount window now is rather 15 b USD<br />you should take the FARWOLPC index series in your bloomberg as discount rate pertains to primary credit only<br />am I wrong here ?<br />MacrostudentAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14755393743463443712010-02-19T12:57:45.846+00:002010-02-19T12:57:45.846+00:00The question I can't get out of my mind is, wh...The question I can't get out of my mind is, why yesterday? That is a puzzle, and an interesting one, I think. Why, for example, the eve of option expiration?Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81718341532970008792010-02-19T12:03:26.840+00:002010-02-19T12:03:26.840+00:00non-commercial eurodollar longs are 2.58 to every ...non-commercial eurodollar longs are 2.58 to every one short as of the latest cftc data AND that is with a net gain of 170k new shorts over the last three weeks (the chosen ones). your description of potential friendly data/upward infation readings plays in with the trade of most pain in the front end -- namely lower. one would think nearly every rally will be a sell for the next bit.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com