tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7288237198033450186..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Non-Predictions for 2010 (Part II)Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27661304711244670922010-01-08T03:47:32.308+00:002010-01-08T03:47:32.308+00:00Agreed on 6) no rate hike, and on 8) 2y above 60bp...Agreed on 6) no rate hike, and on 8) 2y above 60bps. Not sure about equity volatility and range - there are more unknowables out there than we think. I think. Surreptitioius tightening and then loosening again will probably be the order of the day.<br /><br />Stay warm, old chap, minus 20 is more than a bit chilly for an English winter. The good part of it is an absolutely cast iron excuse to work from home.<br /><br />It's fairly decent in La Jolla today, where LB finds himself working this week.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62847085693432214212010-01-07T22:10:59.728+00:002010-01-07T22:10:59.728+00:00Any views on Argy, Redrado, Christina etc? Still h...Any views on Argy, Redrado, Christina etc? Still hanging out in Buenos Aires here and it looks like this is the last 6 months of team Kirchner. If she had a chance in the election she probably wouldn't get as much pushback on the cookie jar raid attempt.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14280604353937433882010-01-07T21:13:04.323+00:002010-01-07T21:13:04.323+00:00Hardly seems to matter whether the Fed raises rate...Hardly seems to matter whether the Fed raises rates or just padlocks their doors closed for good<br /><br />First, most of the economy can't borrow at these imaginary rates anyway. Its only select big banks. Rates charged to very high credit score consumers and IG corporations have already increased.<br /><br />Second, Geithner is perhaps the most ethically challenged Treasury secretaries ever. FNMA and Freddie Mac are now designed to lose money, and Geithner has promised to give them unlimited backing for as long as the Chinese government is dumb enough to lend him money.<br /><br />Third, anyone who intends to pay back their debts is already delevering (and has been for a while). The Fed can keep FF rates at zero or raise FF to 20% and this won't change one bit. The only people increasing their borrowing right now are those who cannot ever pay the loan back<br /><br />Other than sell side salesmen trying to conjure up excitement over Treasuries, who really cares what the Fed says anymore?Gregnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40925614547114781942010-01-07T18:39:49.115+00:002010-01-07T18:39:49.115+00:00If the Fed DOESN'T move in 2010, then the 9-yr...If the Fed DOESN'T move in 2010, then the 9-yr T-note one year forward gets to about 4.40%, taking into account rolldown and 350bp of positive carry for 12 months.<br /><br />It doesn't get better than that!Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57558746008895826252010-01-07T18:16:42.258+00:002010-01-07T18:16:42.258+00:00Certainly burning my books up here ,...whoops ther...Certainly burning my books up here ,...whoops there goes Pick Hot Stocks by F King-Cold.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79360419912973443792010-01-07T17:59:38.172+00:002010-01-07T17:59:38.172+00:00pensioners are now burning books to keep warm.
Fu...pensioners are now burning books to keep warm.<br /><br />Funny sorry I shouldn't laugh<br /><br />So 5p for a 500g so £2 for 20kg of books vs £5 for alternative - Is it worth it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85806666238637004692010-01-07T14:55:33.301+00:002010-01-07T14:55:33.301+00:00Macro man, the usd in my view is loosing its "...Macro man, the usd in my view is loosing its "blue chip" ness and if political risk continues to increase it edges nearer to developing country currencies.<br />What is the fate of such usd pegged currencies, the pricing of risk and feasible remedies?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2548592255636589162010-01-07T13:56:14.826+00:002010-01-07T13:56:14.826+00:00alex filinov on seeking alpha may have copied your...alex filinov on seeking alpha may have copied your format !<br /><br />http://seekingalpha.com/article/181346-6-events-which-will-probably-not-happen-in-2010?source=emailAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76494322225590152932010-01-07T13:45:48.381+00:002010-01-07T13:45:48.381+00:00Nomura also calling for no hikes in 2010 I believe...Nomura also calling for no hikes in 2010 I believe. And I agree with you both as well. But there will be enough scares and change of language to make it choppy. Ultimately, Ben will not risk a double-dip by using such a headline measure when he can start tightening through more surreptitious methods.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70198268857955800492010-01-07T13:40:03.753+00:002010-01-07T13:40:03.753+00:006)
i agree. and i think its a fairly straighforw...6)<br /><br />i agree. and i think its a fairly straighforward assesment. so how do so many arrive at the conclusion that the Fed will start hiking in H2... i tend to think its just the usual groupthink. or am i REALLY missing something ?<br /><br />i know only of goldman from the big names expecting no hike in 2010spagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48400673995975498712010-01-07T12:59:08.967+00:002010-01-07T12:59:08.967+00:00Regarding (8), what about:
"The SNB will inte...Regarding (8), what about:<br />"The SNB will intervene more frequently and to lesser effect than the BoJ."<br />They gotta be dumping some swiss sooner or later, given how short EUR the market is...but that is my small 2cents worth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com