tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7235311562877180183..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Minnesota Real Estate, the S&P 500, Treasury Bonds, and YouMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50901738078730203332018-07-30T14:54:27.577+01:002018-07-30T14:54:27.577+01:00Great post.Thanks for sharing this wonderful infor...Great post.Thanks for sharing this wonderful information. Useful for everyone. This is a very informative blog.<br /><a href="www.mortgagecalculatorforrealtors.com" rel="nofollow">Mortgage Rate Calculator</a>Charlesmenonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05588728061878719504noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37489360387335234492018-01-31T08:13:25.404+00:002018-01-31T08:13:25.404+00:00Thanks, I'm glad to work with all of them.
g...Thanks, I'm glad to work with all of them.<br /> <a href="https://goldenslot.gclubcrown.com/" rel="nofollow">goldenslot</a><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43309264995877445752018-01-30T18:08:28.668+00:002018-01-30T18:08:28.668+00:00Yeah, Shawn, agree we're not seeing fear yet. ...Yeah, Shawn, agree we're not seeing fear yet. (Temporary) buyer's strike seems a plausible description of what we're seeing.<br /><br />Still trying to catch a short-term bottom in USD. Market keys off EURUSD where the EUR 5Y5Y inflation swap trend has arguably broken trend in place since June. Also, Bloomberg citing officials saying even the ECB hawks favor a 3-month taper after Sep. And then there's today's German inflation data, which under-whelmed. Draghi's communication still links QE to some evidence between now and tapering of inflation lifting. So far, nothing on that count. Meantime, dollar shorts are eating negative carry. All this might put a break on how fast EURUSD can appreciate. Some people will say markets will just move regardless of central banks, now that the Euro-zone expansion is sustained, which is all very nice, but tell it to the people who have been short EURSEK these past years. The ECB can screw you by pushing out timing and letting speculators twist in the wind. The other observation I bring in support of a slowing in EURUSD appreciation is a long-term chart of the 10Y EURUSD forward. We're not at peak levels but we're getting there.<br /><br />All that said, I think the USD bull is over and to play a USD bounce, TWD, SGD, and CHF have been more interesting to me.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7007384678633331162018-01-30T16:55:28.931+00:002018-01-30T16:55:28.931+00:00One does what one says. Unless WTI rallies into th...One does what one says. Unless WTI rallies into the close and settles above 65.19 this trader will be looking to short it on the move to backtest 65 level during Globex, especially if API report is "rosy" and helps to achieve the entry.<br /><br />@Shawn, I remember that MLK day vividly. Historical moment indeed. Led to the largest Fed Funds rate surprise cut ever the next morning. Those were the days...IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14656517105844650442018-01-30T16:35:06.414+00:002018-01-30T16:35:06.414+00:00But they have had me talking to myself on park ben...But they have had me talking to myself on park benches, quite often!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32973484770796263082018-01-30T16:32:37.551+00:002018-01-30T16:32:37.551+00:00Glad you called me out as Amps, Lefty. Anyone read...Glad you called me out as Amps, Lefty. Anyone reading my musings here over the last 5 years could easily call me out as "Blue Jasmine".....but they'ed be wrong on this occasion, as I'm not the one getting bent over by hedgefund managers.....not anymore. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45383989484419512652018-01-30T14:35:53.934+00:002018-01-30T14:35:53.934+00:00In one of the first, and more regrettable pieces I...In one of the first, and more regrettable pieces I ever wrote on the markets was a letter to the editor of the local newspaper blasting their reliance on a local equity manager's quotes that "there is cash on the sidelines" waiting to buy this market. I even cited a lexis-nexis search where I tagged that quote nine times in six years from the same guy. It's a great multi-purpose tool. And yeah, I agree totally on Dalio. <br /><br />Also today as we look fearfully at a market that is down 27 handles, I remember ten years ago this month that Jerome Kerviel nearly blew up SocGen. I remember the day--it was US holiday so I was in just to catch up and tidy up spreadsheets--I walked into the office, dumb and happy--looked up at the scoreboard-style ticker on our trading desk and it said S&P futures were down 58 points! Off a base 60% lower than today's near-2900 level. <br /><br />What marked that day was not only the kick off of the second movement of the GFC concerto, but also the move in treasury futures. They rallied BIG. <br /><br />Today S&P down not even 1%--there's short vol fear....but no bid for fixed income. So is there really any fear? I'd argue no. EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-945533156157851102018-01-30T13:23:28.717+00:002018-01-30T13:23:28.717+00:00I have to say I didn't really understand Dalio...I have to say I didn't really understand Dalio's whole "nice delevraging" spiel while at the same saying that after another 1% in rates it'll be dicey, ie having real rates of ~25bps is close to the end of the world, but having cash you'll feel foolish. Sure we all talk our own books but he's clearly married to the leveraged long treasuries position.BlackRavenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05896472586470597474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35871873580755197442018-01-30T13:07:06.515+00:002018-01-30T13:07:06.515+00:00Too true, Amps, too true.
The VIX hit 14. It'...Too true, Amps, too true.<br /><br />The VIX hit 14. It's been a long time since we have experienced the F word in this market. Yeah, that one. FEAR.<br /><br />Can't help wondering if there will be a whiff of it in the air before long as punters in the short vol complex are forced to cover. The SVXY is now down 15% from its peak. A little more of this and it's a "bear market" for vol selling.<br /><br />OTOH, Spoos down 16 handles isn't a big deal, unless a disorderly unwind of the short vol complex unleashes the kind of forced selling that observers have often postulated might occur. If it does happen, a lot of people are going to find out that their portfolio is "not diversified" after all. :-)<br /><br />Personally I would love to see that pompous prick Dalio with egg on his face after his recent pronouncements. How about a nice drawdown in AUM, Ray, before the PC police come to Westport and cut you up into little pieces? I am sick to death of the Cash on the Sidelines arguments from him and all the other carnival barkers.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77861558333166480462018-01-30T10:49:06.943+00:002018-01-30T10:49:06.943+00:00You know what really is amusing with this finance ...You know what really is amusing with this finance market. It is trying to learn your trading craft at UNI and having to translate the current market conditions from the finance textbooks. You get to feel around the finance literature and ultimately decide.....weeeelllll.....this current macro economic climate doesn't fit in with this billion dollar company's specialization so we'll have to cut that out. Aaaaaaaaaaaaand this company's seems to be heading in a direction that has no coming back.....weeeelllll.....we'll have to leave that out. Very amusing!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75469634742524228382018-01-30T10:09:38.641+00:002018-01-30T10:09:38.641+00:00You'll know where at the top of the "grea...You'll know where at the top of the "greatest bull market" in history when news media , advertising and casino CEO's lobby networks start going in to bat for the fiddlers of high frequency trading networks. Where there now. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90339870052148527002018-01-29T19:13:42.390+00:002018-01-29T19:13:42.390+00:00If you keep your initial punts fairly small, the a...If you keep your initial punts fairly small, the arrows bounce off, even if they do sting a bit.<br /><br />Speaking of Price… keen observers of the inverse vol complex will have noted that SVXY is now 10% down from its highs. These punters are being killed softly as the VIX drifts upwards almost imperceptibly. It's not the spikes that kill you… although if and when the VIX spikes the vol sellers will all be carried out en masse.<br /> <br />Is the Top already in for vol selling? Peak Complacency, anyone?<br /><br />Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85109959885814225962018-01-29T19:08:30.114+00:002018-01-29T19:08:30.114+00:00No technique no method is wrong because there is n...No technique no method is wrong because there is no perfect trading system either. Even the best algos are self learning. Even Rentech has to hire more and more phds to stay ahead of everyone else. <br /><br />At our humble level, following price as main news like you do is all but a dumbass approach and probably the best one. It takes a lot of discipline to keep emotions and personal conviction out of one's trading.<br /><br />If you let emotions and conviction dictate your trading (here), only the exit level matters. You can be underwater for a very very long time. The key is to keep on trading other things on shorter timeframes than the one you're trapped in in order to stay sharp and motivated.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43338915028081792832018-01-29T18:42:28.226+00:002018-01-29T18:42:28.226+00:00Nico G, I hear you... No disrespect to those fortu...Nico G, I hear you... No disrespect to those fortunate enough to feel the tops and bottoms like none others and go all in to break the bank. I am of an opinion that one stays in business while remaining humble and nimble in order to avoid repeated blow-ups and stay confident enough to continue to trade and actually have the dry powder to apply in cases of absolute u-turns you precisely mention. I am no "fine technician" you brought up, but I am a student of price. It simply represents the balance of buyers and sellers that I can see right in front of me in real time. I can't see far in advance all other (mostly anticipatory and/or anecdotal) things you said until they are somewhat apparent (for the most part). Hence I rely on charts for most of my trading. Please excuse my dumbass approach but it's this one simple technique that keeps me in business and until it fails me I'll have to use it. Believe me, I will not be far behind the heros laying on the side of the road with arrows through their hearts. I just don't want to be one of them.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71017189136669990172018-01-29T18:09:15.852+00:002018-01-29T18:09:15.852+00:00http://thereformedbroker.com/2018/01/24/stock-mark...http://thereformedbroker.com/2018/01/24/stock-market-reversals-can-cause-recessions-too/<br /><br />once in a lifetime contrarian thought from the excellent Josh Brown (whose bullish acumen has always been painful to read when short)<br /><br />we must remember:<br /><br />in March 2009 the stock market bottomed amid the greatest fear, while Roubini called the S&P to fall further to 400 and minutes before Goldman was meant to go bankrupt. It took one earning surprise from Citigroup to get the machine going<br /><br />i had bought 720, and 700, and when market broke 700 with force i had to switch machine off hoping to not get liquidated by a crash. It was unbearable. Then market bounced 30%. Of those who bought the bottom i know noone who trailed further because awful news on the economy kept coming and pretty much every technician was calling for a retest of the low.<br /><br />We must remember this: the stock market bounced AHEAD and never looked back. Ahead of TARP, and pomo, and the QE saga. We must remember that. The bull market began amid horrible news.<br /><br />We have the mirror situation of March 2009 today with Finviz 100% complacent. Davos 2018 imnsho will prove to be the peak of self congratulation and beatification of Greed for years to come. Fine technicians today write that if you miss the top, you just wait for a lower high and check for RSI divergence to short or not. I very much doubt the market will be that cute. The max pain is gap, crap and never look back.<br /><br />The way Josh writes it today, it could take just 24 hours for fear to come back and for doom gloom to populate finviz headlines. To read everywhere that nothing can go bad 'because the economy is strong' is wrong on so many levels. It gets the causality/reflexivity of markets totally wrong. And almost noone is doing their anticipation homework of what happens to balance sheets and discounted flows (earnings) and ultra leverage economies when rates are going higher<br /><br />Noone has written anywhere that Japan Inc. would go bust if rates shot up 150 basis points. Noone has written anywhere that the minute Draghi goes QT, Italy goes bust and the euro follows (that should give colours to long term EURUSD traders)<br /><br />at some point smart money sees all those problems and executes accordingly - the stock market tanks without any warning from the 'economy' and like Josh writes, the recession feared becomes self fulfilling.<br /><br />good luck adamantic and you are not aloneNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18736500876607786822018-01-29T17:19:20.364+00:002018-01-29T17:19:20.364+00:00In a "straight" line, I meant on US doll...In a "straight" line, I meant on US dollar.<br /><br />You want to have some credible tops develop on risk here, imho. Take WTI below 65.19 and NQ below 6924 on daily closing basis and it gets interesting. Until then, you are not supported by charts but simply by the notion that this has gone too far too fast. I tried last week, ain't working. Let the charts develop. Plenty room below those breaks.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50857629698758883522018-01-29T17:01:06.534+00:002018-01-29T17:01:06.534+00:00Guys, let the FANG party pass. No better blow than...Guys, let the FANG party pass. No better blow than the one to the hangover head. I hate violence, by the way ;)<br /><br />On US dollar... Nothing ever travels in one line.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9641502659373358362018-01-29T16:20:25.842+00:002018-01-29T16:20:25.842+00:00Agree USD seems over-done here. My bullish EURUSD ...Agree USD seems over-done here. My bullish EURUSD structures actually get short from ~1.25 and I just got long USDs with tight stops here within the hour.<br />See different accounts of what reserve managers might be up to, but interesting to see custody holdings in the US falling while EMs that report daily/weekly have been adding reserves, i.e. suggests diversification away from USD. That's something to watch. JPM argued the opposite in F&L piece this weekend, but unconvincing. GS meanwhile has some interesting analysis suggesting bond fund managers are still long USD relative to history, which I can believe (but then, why wouldn't they still be, given carry). Despite all that, feels like we can rally a bit.<br />Interesting that the narrative in JPY last week was all about hawkish interpretations of Kuroda's comments while the JGB market keyed off very different (dovish) remarks in his post-meeting press conference. Two markets at odds.<br />With markets +7%+ in less than a month, I wouldn't say your trade is crazy adamantic. I've tidied up my book a bit and am long April VIX small (which has worked in different conditions the last week).johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68216274700731432682018-01-29T14:16:32.202+00:002018-01-29T14:16:32.202+00:00Crypto well and truly rolled over. First fraudulen...Crypto well and truly rolled over. First fraudulent darlings going down. Sydney real estate rolling over. Record speculative longs in the euro and crude. <br /><br />Meanwhile 2 million Walmart employees getting a 10% pay rise. I'm sceptical of doom mongers on inflation but maybe even for the US that moves the needle. USD down too. All somewhat inflationary, no?<br /><br />Might try and get ahead of the data on this one. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42533343330279817302018-01-29T14:10:49.286+00:002018-01-29T14:10:49.286+00:00I'm going in. 60% short SPX with stop at the h...I'm going in. 60% short SPX with stop at the highs. Wish me luck. Stop is so tight it can only lose a fraction of the monthly gains in Fiat, Brazil, Afterpay etc.<br /><br />This is as singularly bullish as I've ever seen the market Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30060595923085694862018-01-29T14:10:28.563+00:002018-01-29T14:10:28.563+00:00Interesting stuff. Your analysis does support the ...Interesting stuff. Your analysis does support the general thesis that you can buy anything at the start of QE and it will make money as the process of asset price inflation proceeds. Good observations there about the change in housing market participants, it feels more like 2005 than 2009, with mini housing bubbles appearing in some of the most surprising places.<br /><br />PCE headline and core prices, 1.7% and 1.5% y/y. Not exactly screaming hot, makes you wonder whether break-evens are already ahead of themselves. Yields spiked ahead of the numbers but are now pulling in. Of note, the long bond has resisted any and all efforts to drag the yield to 3.00% and above.<br /><br />DX is firmer today and equities and crude oil are lower, following China overnight. That's a change from the pattern we saw in 2017 when USDJPY and Spoos were in lockstep much of the time. In fact this morning, if sustained, is a good old-fashioned risk off recipe. This might be a one day wonder, but we'll see. EURUSD move really seemed over-extended for a while now, there are some signs of FX regime change here, and that has often preceded a turn in market momentum in the past.<br /><br />If we do get an unexpected USD bounce from here, then you wouldn't want to be in EM equities, debt, carry trades like AUD. We are still looking for weakness to show up first in US high yield and small caps, but given the vol selling trade it's possible that everything moves together this time. It is notable how the VIX has been moving sideways or "building a base" as equity bulls would usually describe such a chart, even as spoos have drifted up.<br /><br />We are long UUP and short IWM and SVXY, for the time being.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37758699302530408152018-01-29T14:02:35.732+00:002018-01-29T14:02:35.732+00:00Has everybody here capitulated on shorting the mar...Has everybody here capitulated on shorting the market? <br /><br />Now may be the timeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12112630482936081502018-01-29T10:13:44.657+00:002018-01-29T10:13:44.657+00:00johno....."The absence of the bad gives green...johno....."The absence of the bad gives green light to sidelined buyers to step in"<br /><br />The rich and famous bullshit is over.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40942890852856793122018-01-29T10:08:03.666+00:002018-01-29T10:08:03.666+00:00johno...."The absence of the bad gives green ...johno...."The absence of the bad gives green light to sidelined buyers to step in"<br /><br /><br />No ones buying anything. It's not working for anyone , especially some unknown that comes along with a bid and chain and ball.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63831973467192308312018-01-28T20:46:05.211+00:002018-01-28T20:46:05.211+00:00QE cash/liquidity pours into stocks >>> L...QE cash/liquidity pours into stocks >>> Lack of a blowup as QE unwinds causes cash/liquidity to pour into stocks. <br /><br />Sounds about right. Sure, why not. Still space for Draghi, Koroda, Bernanke and Yellen on Mount Rushmore? <br /> EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.com