tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7177526924348145160..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A programming noteMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger92125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17519865913634694292016-07-13T07:47:59.833+01:002016-07-13T07:47:59.833+01:00Asia/China and EM have just broken out of recent c...Asia/China and EM have just broken out of recent consolidation and valuations are appealing. If DB doesnt implode they should do better than SPX I think. Holding onto my IWM and XOP puts though (sry 12yo), till they expire.cowboynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4738396334512977662016-07-13T07:40:47.721+01:002016-07-13T07:40:47.721+01:00So.... 2600 in SPX is 20% up fr here. Our 12yo her...So.... 2600 in SPX is 20% up fr here. Our 12yo hero is gonna leverage that into 3 digit returns. Sounds like a plan. All I need to do is borrow 80% of my house value n by next year I'll have enuff for another house! 12yo pls pm ur subs agrmt.cowboynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40253160097949864202016-07-12T23:35:03.106+01:002016-07-12T23:35:03.106+01:00@Celeriac1972: Dude, forget those equity shorts, a...@Celeriac1972: Dude, forget those equity shorts, any retracement in SPX will be a pullback, perfect positioning to get long again and be killin' it on the next leg up of several hundred handles. Swag money.<br /><br />@johno: ur hired. <br /><br /><br /><br />12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91612157365003761502016-07-12T22:18:24.402+01:002016-07-12T22:18:24.402+01:00A new musing on equities ... how could we get to 1...A new musing on equities ... how could we get to 12yo HFM's 2,600 on the SPX? He sug-jests an epic positioning squeeze. Maybe, but seems excessive. A zero hedge reader may offer hyperinflation as the likelier answer. But perhaps the likeliest answer is pro-cyclical fiscal stimulus. You have Abe in Japan, delaying the sales tax hike, soon announcing more spending, and perhaps eventually targeting inflation with fiscal spending. And consider the US electorate this year. You have Sanders and Trump ( "free sh1t" and "build stupid sh1t") between them drawing a lot of support for more spending, the latter from a Republican base. Imagine not just the boost to corporate earnings, but the massive rotation out of fixed income and into equities if the next President and Congress could agree a large fiscal stimulus. Most of us would probably agree that fiscal spending would be far more effective in getting money into the hands of those who would spend it than QE, no? And the US infrastructure is so under-invested that it may be possible to spend (i.e., invest) without worsening debt sustainability (granted, it's maybe likelier that the money is mis-spent, ultimately worsening sustainability). In any case, many would agree that fiscal stimulus makes sense, that politically the winds are shifting that way, and that 12yo HFM's SPX target might look conservative if it actually happened.<br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81447639188283672892016-07-12T22:02:28.866+01:002016-07-12T22:02:28.866+01:00@12yo HFM - your big brother's going to be fur...@12yo HFM - your big brother's going to be furious when he gets home and finds you've been playing with his stuff. Maybe it's time to quit while you're ahead and quietly put everything back where you found it?<br /><br />Hard to see what pushes SPX on materially from here. If anything a time to set some shorts imho.<br /><br />My short buyback ETFs / long SPX has worked well. Am contemplating a similar trade short USMV and/or SPLV vs SPX; the "low vol anomaly" is starting to look stretched. Looking at this tomorrow, will share findings if interesting.Celeriac1972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30264536973062440662016-07-12T21:32:07.427+01:002016-07-12T21:32:07.427+01:00pol with you here- i think a few people want to se...pol with you here- i think a few people want to sell this but waiting for septemeber /post summer....bears are talking bearish as shorts all covered<br />i think next stop in a move back in the range in spx..vix and spx up 2 days in a row now...time for a pull backAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20236499020407250252016-07-12T21:11:16.425+01:002016-07-12T21:11:16.425+01:00The MM commentary appears to have capitulated a sh...The MM commentary appears to have capitulated a short bias in favour of the CB cash wins all. The simplest way to look at this is as a capitulation of cash longs as all assets are up. If that is the case and the value of cash is falling and as it continues to do so the next logical step is inflation. <br /><br />However, I think that there will first be a snap back from the expectation of uber lax monetary policy from the CBs which is currently seeing max expectations. <br /><br />So it may play to short equities. Tight stops but risk reward has tipped that way for me. Am I calling a top? Nah, but I d be pretty lucky if it is.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43355467013193117192016-07-12T20:43:23.308+01:002016-07-12T20:43:23.308+01:00The CBs will hike when they have to, according to ...The CBs will hike when they have to, according to their mandate. When they start hiking, it'll be seen as positive at first, just like every time before. The carnage will begin when markets realize the hikes won't stop at 2-3%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37083852297034506032016-07-12T20:25:53.816+01:002016-07-12T20:25:53.816+01:00MrBeach, the only markey failure that you're n...MrBeach, the only markey failure that you're not considering is the "real" aim of CBs, to have inflation. If inflation will come your game will be under stress. Pay attention to that, until then enjoy funny moneyTheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19375376595776691972016-07-12T20:24:40.311+01:002016-07-12T20:24:40.311+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.TheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34663499103835084312016-07-12T19:36:40.922+01:002016-07-12T19:36:40.922+01:00@MrBeach: Ur hired :)@MrBeach: Ur hired :)12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56155154218495254012016-07-12T19:22:13.163+01:002016-07-12T19:22:13.163+01:00@12yo HFM: Hilarious - though you missed the most...@12yo HFM: Hilarious - though you missed the most obvious pop culture reference of the week: there is a Pokestop at 2200. <br /><br />To the rest of the commentariat: I bought SAN a couple of weeks ago thinking that we'll get a much bigger pop. I'm out after a small profit in the trade.<br /><br />It is challenging to fully model the flood of ZIRP/NIRP/QE/Helicopter money into markets. The flood has clearly changed investor psychology, where 12yo HFM actually sounds lucid. So what stands in the way of 12yo's thinking? No central bank can individually renege on their stated regime without being blamed for inciting a market rout. Whether their balance sheets hold ETFs (BoJ), Bonds (Fed, ECB), Apple (SNB), etc doesn't really matter. The central banks have anted up and are simultaneously one of the biggest whales as well as the sucker at the table. They can't just get up off the table now.<br /><br />So do we all just follow 12yo to Pokestops at 2200, 2300, 2400, etc.? It seems so entirely simple a model. Why even bother analyzing rate differentials, FX moves, bank balance sheets? If asset values begin to drop, the whale at the table will begin to move deposit ratios, drop rates, instigate QE, buy ETFs, fire up the helicopters and move the market back to steady growth.<br /><br />Since the end of QE3 in 2014, the S&P has moved up about 6%. Not much for 2 years of teeth gnashing.<br /><br />If CBs cannot help but intervene in markets? What causes markets to actually fall? Earnings still matter. The Chinese banking system and economy still matter. Are S&P earnings falling precipitously? No. 12yo HFM answer - buy. Are the Chinese dumb enough to deval all at once? No. Buy.<br /><br />It seems to me that the only thing that will force an actual change in the CB driven rocket is an error or market failure. With fast global communication, I cannot see a modern central bank committing a policy error anymore. <br /><br />The only market failure I can reasonably foresee is the loss of confidence in major global currency forcing a massive deval. This is a tough bet to make. <br /><br />MrBeachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86947449534404155892016-07-12T19:16:59.583+01:002016-07-12T19:16:59.583+01:00Central Banks have recently increased asset purcha...Central Banks have recently increased asset purchases to the highest on record since 2103 - just as risk markets have 'magically' rallied higher.<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-12/mystery-who-pushing-stocks-all-time-highs-has-been-solved<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70816665185559944212016-07-12T18:31:37.614+01:002016-07-12T18:31:37.614+01:00LB, I see weakness showing up in XLF and XLE as we...LB, I see weakness showing up in XLF and XLE as well.<br /><br />We build some short in AUD today. The recession fear on Brexit night and the exuberance screaming of "bull market ever" is the mirror image to us.Cityhunternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48611908882276086402016-07-12T17:20:34.931+01:002016-07-12T17:20:34.931+01:00Also FYI, the XLF is still making lower highs and ...Also FYI, the XLF is still making lower highs and continues to exhibit downward long-term momentum. IWM, XLE and XLF should be leaders and not laggards in a recovery, and the continued under-performance of these cyclical ETFs suggests that this aging bull is on its last legs.<br /><br />LB would be fascinated in punter's thoughts on GDX here. We don't have a position, but it is starting to look toppy.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9321989547018784342016-07-12T17:06:48.030+01:002016-07-12T17:06:48.030+01:00It's July, it's OpEx week, it's Silly ...It's July, it's OpEx week, it's Silly Season. Spoos, Qs, USDJPY and Crude are being gunned higher. Only b/c there is Panic Buying and FOMO and there is absolutely no-one willing to sell them just at the moment. Steamrollers etc...<br /><br />The Russell 2000 isn't remotely close to making new highs. The Spoos obsession continues (and good luck to its perennial punters) but that's not necessarily "the market" the way LB views it.<br /><br />Interesting turn-around in the long bond, good spot by several sharp observers here. One might expect the fixed income market to be the first to sense a change of heart in the Eccles building.<br /><br />Crude is making a run back toward its 50 day at around $48.00, that should cap its advance, USDCAD moving with oil. AUDUSD seems incredibly stretched here. USDJPY will probably be capped around 105 for the time being.<br /><br />There are a lot of inflation flags fluttering in the breeze in the Real Economy. Dame Janet risks being behind the 8-ball on domestic inflation curve on the one hand and on the other hand is also unwilling to do a "JC Trichet" and hike into another global recession [the one that may or may not be ahead of us, and which would be triggered by a major bank failure and/or a recapitalization crisis in European banks].<br /><br />We're still watching and betting on the dollar cruising higher from here, for a variety of reasons. Dead cat bounce in sterling, Euro, C$, but enjoy the ride while it lasts.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52377671464786792582016-07-12T16:12:45.268+01:002016-07-12T16:12:45.268+01:00Yellen is in a trap, if she wants keep her job.
...Yellen is in a trap, if she wants keep her job.<br /><br /><br />In the past we used to have a longer time frame with politics...we used to elect a politician, then they'd become corrupt once in office...<br /><br />This time, we may just elect an already corrupt politician, and put the unused time to better use...like NIRP?Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79237820655662274172016-07-12T16:10:02.694+01:002016-07-12T16:10:02.694+01:00Good call on GBP, Polemic. I got stopped early in ...Good call on GBP, Polemic. I got stopped early in the Asian session ... for once, there was some signal in the early Asia session and not just the usual noise.<br /><br />Question remains how far this move in USDJPY goes. I've cut my long here and will wait to see whether it can manage a third strong day higher. I'm skeptical the BoJ/Abe government will do what's needed to convincingly change expectations. I'd think this would have to involve more explicit coordination, e.g. the government committing to extraordinary fiscal stimulus until 2% inflation reached, and the BoJ backing that policy with continued QE. With spot at 104.5-ish, I'd think the latter scenario is better expressed through options than in cash.<br /><br /><br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88963603430062982392016-07-12T16:04:41.022+01:002016-07-12T16:04:41.022+01:00pretty simple. If the FED wants the dollar lower ...pretty simple. If the FED wants the dollar lower they will hype a hike (and/or actually hike). If they don't they wont. KISS.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72307915402104021312016-07-12T15:56:00.448+01:002016-07-12T15:56:00.448+01:00For me now madame Jellen is in a trap: is there an...For me now madame Jellen is in a trap: is there any reason to justify more time to hike??? <br />a short 5yr note covered by a put on Spx?TheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20860921320757690872016-07-12T15:39:07.924+01:002016-07-12T15:39:07.924+01:00I am here to tell you that Abe has unleashed the p...I am here to tell you that Abe has unleashed the pain trade on all of you. The yen will be sold relentlessly, GBP will be bought further, and stocks will rise in meteoric fashion. <br /><br />The last 18 mths of 'sideways' movement in SPX has been accumulation for a MASSIVE move higher. I fail to see how SPX doesn't hit at least 2600, probably higher. Other equity indexes will also rise (FOMO trade), with bears everywhere being slaughtered wholesale.<br /><br />Teenage, long-only HFM's will become the 'asset managers de jour' (goals!), whilst I expect to be paid a sick 8 figures for pressing "buy" on my BBG, and sitting back in my massage chair as my leveraged equity positions bolster our % returns into 3-digits. #YOLO<br /><br />PS Any would be investors, CNBC invites etc, snapchat me 'k?12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52830080930083389552016-07-12T15:30:30.061+01:002016-07-12T15:30:30.061+01:00Luckily my long Eurostoxx is covering loss on SPoo...Luckily my long Eurostoxx is covering loss on SPoos..<br /><br />all is well, helicopter money is coming, European fins are fixed... <br /><br />hoping about a VaR shock on rates and i'm asking how MontePaschi sub at 65 will be digestedTheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37922584380626183692016-07-12T15:03:52.447+01:002016-07-12T15:03:52.447+01:00on this level there should be quite a bit of money...on this level there should be quite a bit of money coming in from CTAs as we have a nice breakout to the top. I was and am bullish. key will be Q2 results and their outlooks in the conf calls from my point of view.. +BoE and China data of coursehennerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15381506750678483901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7607267589106908632016-07-12T14:58:47.485+01:002016-07-12T14:58:47.485+01:00No MM indeed
. I ve stuck my thoughts here if you ...No MM indeed<br />. I ve stuck my thoughts here if you need a filler. <br />http://polemics-pains.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/brexit-bounce-nuclear-cbs-and-new-highs.htmlPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53068626186980952542016-07-12T14:57:31.930+01:002016-07-12T14:57:31.930+01:00For all the bears or sidelines people (sorta inclu...For all the bears or sidelines people (sorta including myself) at what point would you capitulate and say the S&P has broken out and is in a new trend leg up? <br /><br />A weekly close above new highs/ monthly? Russell making new highs?<br /><br />We were in a 250 point range before.. if we assume the breakout is real (a big if but purley by price action its looking strong) that could give a target of another 250 points higher... 2400. I'd hate to miss all of that move if it occurred. LB and others I would love to hear<br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.com