tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7144350542172183375..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The Merkozy LineMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63918363196155702302011-10-12T18:03:46.047+01:002011-10-12T18:03:46.047+01:0050 bps of relief in the 10y and this tool is alrea...50 bps of relief in the 10y and this tool is already calling it a "rout" in the Treasury market as investors "flee" the "debased dollar". What a silly bunt. What do these people have on their corn flakes in the morning? Amphetamines?<br /><br /><a rel="nofollow"> Sky Falling at Long End? </a><br /><br />A bit of spread tightening and fading of TEOTWAWKI crowd hardly constitutes a rout in the Treasury market. Let no-one be fooled that last Friday's US jobs data was evidence of "Morning in America".Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48950458684467930662011-10-12T17:29:38.012+01:002011-10-12T17:29:38.012+01:00To put it another way, does anybody have any idea ...To put it another way, does anybody have any idea what EURUSD is doing up at 1.38 with Eurostriches still mumbling incoherently but doing nothing? <br /><br />We are encouraged to see some signs of life among the Carry Monkeys (AUDJPY), but a bit bemused by the latest round of DGDF. Maybe it's just that a few too many players had been backing Bucky*?<br /><br />* Backing Bucky = an analog of Bashing Betty.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16232331800327616582011-10-12T17:04:59.258+01:002011-10-12T17:04:59.258+01:00So is this just another playful squeeze, or is Mr ...So is this just another playful squeeze, or is Mr Market really pleased to see me?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34889757414003225052011-10-12T02:55:42.495+01:002011-10-12T02:55:42.495+01:00LB, are you kicking the Can?LB, are you kicking the Can?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11111736810784298222011-10-11T21:27:31.063+01:002011-10-11T21:27:31.063+01:00The aluminum producer has been canned by many inve...The aluminum producer has been canned by many investors this evening...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18299735985230271872011-10-11T21:23:10.178+01:002011-10-11T21:23:10.178+01:00Slovakia said NO. Cue more Eurobolleaux™?
USD/UST ...Slovakia said NO. Cue more Eurobolleaux™?<br />USD/UST safe haven trades might be on again.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40239464097214335862011-10-11T21:11:10.059+01:002011-10-11T21:11:10.059+01:00Not that it is a very important company, but AA ju...Not that it is a very important company, but AA just reported 13c for Q3 and is being sold hard right now.<br /><br />Industrials, miners and I-bank earnings will be poor for Q3. Retail, money center banks and tech may be much better than expected.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-92012087802912129582011-10-11T16:37:22.591+01:002011-10-11T16:37:22.591+01:00While we are reviewing polemics and rants, there a...While we are reviewing polemics and rants, there are all kinds of very odd people out there calling for Debt Jubilees and the like. Now, is LB the only one that thinks this kind of thing is stark staring bonkers? <br /><br /><a href="http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/occupy-wall-street-news-debt-forgiveness/10/10/2011/id/37300" rel="nofollow"> Debt Forgiveness? </a><br /><br />I cannot for the life of me figure out where the author is coming from or what kind of economic landscape he envisages at the end of his rant. The fact is, this huge mess is all going to have to be worked through. Very slowly, with some modest episodes of printing, in a rather unpalatable, terribly unexciting, and yes, remarkably un-American way. Turning Japanese....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72177997548847094212011-10-11T15:57:50.780+01:002011-10-11T15:57:50.780+01:00C says'
many years ago I was doing my degree a...C says'<br />many years ago I was doing my degree and as part we ran business competition where everybody got certain resources and ten was intended to use them according to well established qnantititive principles. The game was supposed to run for 6 months ,but it was ended after 2 months because it was apparent the most successful player had made it impossible for anyone else to compete so the game was over from a practical point of view.<br />What in heavens name as this to do with anything?<br />In essence the game of skewed rewards is over even if the major players have not even realised it yet.You could say these protests are an early first recognition of that process.Yes,I'm sure there will e the odd smirk or two at that.<br />I'd suggest they think about what this really means in terms of the economic game.Are the current trends in wealth distribution really going to lead to sustainable growth when the 90% who are losing in this game are finding it harder and harder to stay in the game of 'growth'?<br />I could trace this nonsense back for you ,but if you've any real interest you could do it for yourself without my help.<br />I simply point out we are in a generational transition in certain aspects of how our financial system works and given I have nothing riding on it at my age I'm going to be entertained watching it work out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29042376801341416722011-10-11T15:38:32.833+01:002011-10-11T15:38:32.833+01:00Say what you will about Krugman, and I am not alwa...Say what you will about Krugman, and I am not always a fan, but the man knows a bloody good bandwagon when he sees one and is extremely articulate. There is more than one extremely talented polemicist in our midst:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/10/opinion/panic-of-the-plutocrats.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss" rel="nofollow"> Panic of the Plutocrats </a><br /><br />Better get used to this kind of stuff. LB thinks it will be wise to go to work dressed like a janitor for a few years, like the 80s, we may have to leave the pinstripes in the office.<br /><br />The counterpoint to all this is, of course, that nobody was actually forced at gunpoint to take out a monster mortgage and a HELOC on their lovely but somewhat commonplace split level ranch. Many economic actors neither borrowed nor lent during the binge years, but we sure as hell are going to pay for the cleanup. It's a huge headache.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71357558141390172762011-10-11T15:14:16.071+01:002011-10-11T15:14:16.071+01:00As for this market, I still don't quite see ho...As for this market, I still don't quite see how we break out of the present trading range. SPX 1200 always brings out sellers. Crude oil still seems too high, the USD will probably rise b/c of EURUSD weakness, and that means more pain or chop ahead for energy and materials. So does a giant squeeze in the financials automatically mean an upside breakout? Not yet.<br /><br />We are about 65% long, still think we end the year with a rally, but it will be a bumpy ride with a lot of strange misdirections likely during the US earnings season. So modestly bullish, but also cautious here.<br /><br />Those who are enthusing about the Euro bank bailout might want to consider the likelihood that the burden of recapitalization may include a private sector component, i.e. issuing more shares, and therefore dilution is not out of the equation.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43936377770827704352011-10-11T15:04:41.188+01:002011-10-11T15:04:41.188+01:00Off topic for a moment, since today may be a snooz...Off topic for a moment, since today may be a snoozer.<br /><br />The protests are much more interesting and important than people realize, and trying to read it in left/right political terms is asinine. <br /><br />These Occupy Wall Street protests are the first verbal shots in an inter-generational conflict that will continue in the US for decades as the smaller Gen X, Gen Y et seq. groups enjoy the privilege of carrying the aging Boomers and their associated costs on their backs to work every day.<br /><br />People who view the US as an enlightened, "free" and democratic society will be quite shocked when the National Guard is called out and we have our very own Kent State moment. <br /><br />It will happen - the US élites think they are untouchable, but when the spectre of true free speech appears before them, they will panic and start shooting, as their fathers and grandfathers did before them.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29629036980904146022011-10-11T13:29:20.070+01:002011-10-11T13:29:20.070+01:00Regarding the Helios Project, it is even worse tha...Regarding the Helios Project, it is even worse than you think. See http://english.capital.gr/News.asp?id=1299732 and http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-07/greece-expects-27-billion-solar-project-to-advance-by-year-end.html<br />Essentially, Germany would finance solar panels (hopefully German-made) by securitizing the money flow of feed-in tariffs, that is itself "guaranteed" by the greek government and paid by greek customers.(euphemism du jour in Bloomberg : "I’m not sure the government will have the money to pay for a feed-in-tariff that’s guaranteed for 20 years") It looks like increasing electricity bills is the new game in town in terms of squeezing the greek citizen stone.!<br />As for exporting that power, you will need lot of persuasion to persuade Austrians to crisscross their mountains with High Voltage lines.<br /><br />At least, now we know why the Finance minister became the Energy minister !<br /><br />PS : after thinking about it, it could be a, rather scary, compromise for the EFSF : German accept the bail-out of french banks in exchange of the bail-out of the German solar manufacturer... Eurozone intergovernmental version of pork !charlesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87200810461583634512011-10-11T12:20:11.096+01:002011-10-11T12:20:11.096+01:00This threads theme is sounding more and more like ...This threads theme is sounding more and more like a breakout is on the horizon...gosh-golly-god!!!is it happening?Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56848915726482501402011-10-11T09:47:27.241+01:002011-10-11T09:47:27.241+01:00Shouts from the audience...
Bail me out!
No ba...Shouts from the audience... <br /><br />Bail me out! <br />No bail me out!<br />Bail me out or else!<br />Bail them out to bail me out!<br />Bail me out to bail them out!<br />Bail them out to bail me out to bail them out or else!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19435247012880837052011-10-11T01:06:43.745+01:002011-10-11T01:06:43.745+01:00I wonder, has Macro Daughter been watching Dad'...I wonder, has Macro Daughter been watching Dad's Army?<br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEDWDAMRBeUAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76929031058574604712011-10-10T21:51:02.517+01:002011-10-10T21:51:02.517+01:00Oh and anon . i looked up those Myrmelachista schu...Oh and anon . i looked up those Myrmelachista schumanni .. interesting.. and they taste of Lemon !! Though wonder who first tried that stunt on a stag night.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8126333128965461292011-10-10T21:41:12.756+01:002011-10-10T21:41:12.756+01:00Sorry we have been so unresponsive in the comments...Sorry we have been so unresponsive in the comments column for a while. Been holding our breaths hoping for last tuesday's call to play out. So we are pretty happy now and willing to curse our luck by emerging again. <br /><br />We actually see this phase of the market as denial. So many folks expressing "I dont understand" that it implies a load more "I don't understand" capitulation to come. Yes its a relative holiday, yes its thin etc etc .. but if it rips higher again tomorrow the air is going to be white with towels. And we will be happy. <br /><br /> Thanks for your kind complements on the map , there is a Macro Daughter here smiling at the reception of her artwork. Amazing what they teach school kids to do on "word" these days. I thought it only did "word"s. <br />"Daddy whats an SMP MAIN ATTACK?"<br /> Don't worry love .. hopefully you'll get a proper job and never have to know.<br /><br />LB do we care what Greek bonds do on all this ? Whether they go up as deals mean the banks have to pay less, yet the Sovs have to do more of the bail out, or they go down and the banks pay more and the sovs less, net net as we know sovs bail banks its all the same pot. Surely got to watch Italy and Spain as they are the real measure of euro package success. Watching Greek bonds is like watching which way up a corpse is floating. <br /><br />Talking of occupy Wall Street, Wiener Borse etc.. be interesting to see which part of London they'd chose. Stock exchange? empty relic .. have it .. Mayfair for HF's, or Canary Wharf for the odd tall shiny bank. Hope it's Canary Wharf. ...they'll all then leave in sympathy. <br /><br />oh and thanks ntwsc <br /><br />Pol..Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62220284312465359562011-10-10T21:25:48.986+01:002011-10-10T21:25:48.986+01:00Ohh nooo, occupy Wiener Börse - whatever will Fekt...Ohh nooo, occupy Wiener Börse - whatever will Fekter come out with next then.<br /><br />http://www.krone.at/Nachrichten/Maria_Fekter_nach_Nazi-Vergleich_unter_Beschuss-Banken_und_Juden-Story-296496<br /><br />Smashing Monday morningish read btw, ta Pol.ntwscnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78349808225157896152011-10-10T20:24:26.136+01:002011-10-10T20:24:26.136+01:00Apparently Erste were also writing CDS a few years...Apparently Erste were also writing CDS a few years back and those positions have been "marked to invisibility" in the balance sheet until quite recently. <br /><br />The conservative and friendly Austrian people are going to be quite ticked off when they discover that not only are they going to be bailing out the profligate Greeks, but some of their own bankers, Irish style.<br /><br />Occupy Wiener Börse will be out there in no time....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64491510768826336712011-10-10T20:16:39.632+01:002011-10-10T20:16:39.632+01:00We have been wittering on here about Austrian bank...We have been wittering on here about Austrian bank exposure to Hungary after writing loans in CHF. That bird is finally coming home to roost:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-10/erste-to-keep-state-capital-as-writedowns-cause-net-loss.html" rel="nofollow"> Erste Bank Writedowns </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53623105391205520842011-10-10T17:42:34.819+01:002011-10-10T17:42:34.819+01:00Slovakia aside the Whole enterprise at this point ...Slovakia aside the Whole enterprise at this point hinges on France's AAA rating. This is the real sarkozy line. at the negotiations in the coming weeks (and don't kid yourself, there are still fierce negotiations going on) the decision to use the EFSF to recap French banks will be settled. if Germany wins then France will be on the hook for more than Dexia, and their AAA will be in jeopardy. A negative watch by one of the ratings agencies will be all it takes. <br /><br />Keep in mind that what makes the process so cumbersome is that Every member is playing the dangerous game of preserving the union whist jockeying for their own national advantage. To think otherwise is historically naiveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47673819945502572922011-10-10T17:27:44.306+01:002011-10-10T17:27:44.306+01:00Greek bonds not exactly surging on this news. Well...Greek bonds not exactly surging on this news. Well, OK, the yield is surging......Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55198450719337303332011-10-10T17:13:02.221+01:002011-10-10T17:13:02.221+01:00Excellent map. Partial reposting soon. Thank you, ...Excellent map. Partial reposting soon. Thank you, TMM. Surprised how much risk-on an announcement of a possible announcement one can get.MoreLiverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03983157511628721698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10840607585674476862011-10-10T16:43:37.347+01:002011-10-10T16:43:37.347+01:00Vhat, vhere aur ze panzers?!
Zhey must have gotte...Vhat, vhere aur ze panzers?!<br /><br />Zhey must have gotten PINned down trying to cross ze Alps!Coreynoreply@blogger.com