tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7081995242952105023..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The Lazy SunbathersMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5101573218841480912014-04-03T01:54:26.028+01:002014-04-03T01:54:26.028+01:00Having not been in the markets long enough to have...Having not been in the markets long enough to have ever seen a economic cycle where the US truly led global growth, I often find myself deferring to the belief (which I think is prevalent amongst said sunbathers), that this is still a realistic possibility in this day and age.<br /><br />There are some very real challenges to growth this year, which are being explained away currently by the aforementioned belief in the primacy of US growth.<br /><br />I have a great deal of sympathy for El-Erian's view about the uncertainty in the growth hand off from official support to genuine private sector growth. <br /><br />Perhaps the hand applying sunscreen to the beachgoers is changing and they could find themselves exposed.Antipodeannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9944444902506043242014-04-03T00:39:40.048+01:002014-04-03T00:39:40.048+01:00Yen Bears and it's not even close.Yen Bears and it's not even close. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22077344051978032362014-04-02T22:16:53.369+01:002014-04-02T22:16:53.369+01:00According to my ECFC function on Bloomberg, the co...According to my ECFC function on Bloomberg, the consensus forecast for 2015 is 3% (both mean and median)and close to that in 2016 (median of 3.00% and mean of 2.96%.) 83 observations for the former, 35 for the latter.<br /><br />Vive la difference between the market and the PhD's!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54584290982103980122014-04-02T22:03:46.696+01:002014-04-02T22:03:46.696+01:00"..widely held belief that growth will accele..."..widely held belief that growth will accelerate to an above trend 3% and then stay there" -- really? Who thinks that? I'd put good money on trend being closer to 2 than 3, but I am not sure the market isn't also expecting 2.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32398673605030600092014-04-02T15:33:40.202+01:002014-04-02T15:33:40.202+01:00VIX term structure...
http://www.vixcentral.com/
...VIX term structure...<br /><br />http://www.vixcentral.com/<br /><br />SoGen "the period of low volatility is coming to an end"<br /><br />http://tinyurl.com/leug8mdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57808083587365919552014-04-02T14:28:20.257+01:002014-04-02T14:28:20.257+01:00Could it be a Lazy Sunbather's assumption that...Could it be a Lazy Sunbather's assumption that the market is still on the whole lazily short in tsys and looking for 3.5% - a lot has changed since the beginning of the year and would take particularly deep pockets to wear both the price action and the painful carry... Would imagine a lot of short covering has already been done and positioning is far cleaner than it was a month or two ago.Turkishnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84938898187338686652014-04-02T13:41:49.616+01:002014-04-02T13:41:49.616+01:00LB's Lazy Sunbathers, at least for the time be...LB's Lazy Sunbathers, at least for the time being:<br /><br />Dollar Longs<br />"Great Rotation" merchants<br />Treasury Shorts and YC Steepeners<br />Eastern Europe Bears<br />Muni Bears<br />ECB QE Cheerleaders<br />US Small Cap and Growth Stock Pumpers<br />China Crash Callers<br /><br />How about a Q2 where "not much happens?". No crashes, no wars, no US escape velocity, no new QE initiatives..... it has been known, you know.<br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78058157489482196452014-04-02T13:10:16.759+01:002014-04-02T13:10:16.759+01:00Here is my list of current assumptions, some are l...Here is my list of current assumptions, some are lazy and others are not<br /><br />US stock market doesnt have a deep correction without a recession. Since there is no imminent recession, buy stocks<br /><br />Sell all hard commodities on lower China growth, increased production<br /><br />Abenomics is OK, if you want to blow up your currency we will help by shorting your currency and buying stocks<br /><br />Buy Modi and Widodo, sell Rousseff<br />on elections<br /><br />China will muddle through, and they cant have a big credit event bc the financial system is closed<br /><br />But I see the real Kool-Aid in the tech /bio tech sector now. For sure there are some great businesses and business models (a new must have app's economics are insane) but there appears to be no focus on sustainable business models anymore. Eyeballs/90's = Users/2010's. Biotech same thing. Assume your drug that treats a rare lung disease will be able to generate $60K per patient. Health care costs are unsustainably high, new technology = price pressure, IMO. The science is real in both fields but the numbers are not<br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88568604613300709452014-04-02T12:32:19.904+01:002014-04-02T12:32:19.904+01:00Ramapagingruss says:
I agree with your analysis, b...Ramapagingruss says:<br />I agree with your analysis, but you pick out the PhD crowd as being the lazy sunbathers. My bet would be the lazy shorts in treasuries. Everyone seems to still assume 3.5% on the 10 year - more likely moves to 2% in my view....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57118971169405494612014-04-02T10:44:45.936+01:002014-04-02T10:44:45.936+01:00Off-topic but anyone else had their Liffe feeds fo...Off-topic but anyone else had their Liffe feeds forcefully delayed by ICE as they renegotiate contracts? Unacceptable behaviour you ask me.<br /><br />Welcome back MM, and I certainly count myself in the new normal camp of lower growth. I am constantly (altho I should no longer be) amazed at how out of touch the PhD gang seems to be and how much their forecasts continue to be relied on.<br /><br />JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48575454792782215442014-04-02T10:22:36.696+01:002014-04-02T10:22:36.696+01:00Talking about housing bubbles, commentary appears ...Talking about housing bubbles, commentary appears to have gone from "Property doom, we need prices to rise" to "Property bubble we need prices to fall" without passing through the nirvana of "property prices are just right, let's rejoice". Did that happen or was I asleep and missed it?<br /> <br /><br /> Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68075537040720484722014-04-02T10:17:24.102+01:002014-04-02T10:17:24.102+01:00Long GBP when a U.K. property bubble is developing...Long GBP when a U.K. property bubble is developing? U.K. house prices rose for 15th month in March -- dragged up by London where values climbed to more than 2x national average.Loulou de Fnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37670001090564790262014-04-02T09:44:24.280+01:002014-04-02T09:44:24.280+01:00German credit and by transitivity German Banking s...German credit and by transitivity German Banking stocks (see CBK this morning)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77632964978352416232014-04-02T09:18:08.540+01:002014-04-02T09:18:08.540+01:00Regarding fiscal pull-back and the stuff. What do ...Regarding fiscal pull-back and the stuff. What do you think of the causality? The common assumption seems to be that if not for the government then the growth would have been 2pp higher or whatever. But isn't a lazy sunbathers assumption? That is instead of starting with (fake numbers) 6% GDP deficit and going down to 3% deficit with total GDP growth of 2% in the end, why not to start with so to speak underlying natural -4% GDP growth to which government used to add +6% so that we end up with total 2%. Now, the government pushes only 3% of GDP growth and so the new result has to be around -1%.<br /><br />So what comes first? Government & fiscal or private sector?Игры рынкаhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12001273098690387194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19659156517352665642014-04-02T07:51:27.112+01:002014-04-02T07:51:27.112+01:00And meanwhile "Lazy Sunbathers" on Long...And meanwhile "Lazy Sunbathers" on Long Kiwi beach have just been drenched by a lactic wave of falling dairy prices.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.com