tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7013249258384901183..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Sweating ScotlandMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88652985361532507862014-09-09T12:56:22.726+01:002014-09-09T12:56:22.726+01:00
Anon 3.46 etc
why is Apostle Anon so often quote...<br />Anon 3.46 etc<br /><br />why is Apostle Anon so often quoted in this financial blog?Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57561493131251303242014-09-09T07:56:34.971+01:002014-09-09T07:56:34.971+01:00C Says
From an equity point of view I note the Ref...C Says<br />From an equity point of view I note the Referendum 18th ,AliBaba 19th (?) and Sep Options all packed into the same period. Meanwhile one wonders how the market is going to absorb such a huge chunk of Alib other than by selling related stock in the main which would make any Apple surge from the Tech sector highly saleable I would have thought just to free up the cash.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62650610275787348802014-09-09T07:15:29.196+01:002014-09-09T07:15:29.196+01:00C Says
Anon 3.46,
I suspect it is complacent views...C Says<br />Anon 3.46,<br />I suspect it is complacent views like that which have helped to put the Yes group where they are today. Contrary to that view the group of 'don't knows' to be fought for will have diminished significantly by now and indeed expect a goodly portion of that to end up being non voters . Taking that poll at face value what we know from that rather than our opinion on what might or might not be is that the Yes group have the momentum and have picked up the 'don't know' vote so far. With so few remaining they ony need to pick up a few more and the NO group will have no way back. I'd agree with the view that this is too close to call.<br />Having said that it appears to have escaped the kneejerk camp that this is an advisory referendum only and even in the event of a Yes vote the event of a seccession would still be a couple of years distant. In other words the market has or is trying to anticipate a couple of years in a couple of days.To make this stick they'll need a steady stream of 'news' noise to fee it. I'd be reluctant to be in that looking for a continuance ,because I suspect it's more likely to be a consolidation action while the market digests the news it has already been fed at least for currency.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3641986883248082212014-09-09T03:46:09.803+01:002014-09-09T03:46:09.803+01:00Sterling is selling off on the back of this latest...Sterling is selling off on the back of this latest poll indicating a possible victory for the 'Yes' camp, but how much weight should we really place on one poll? I'm sure all patriotic Scots out there will be saying 'yes' to the opinion polls, but will they really pull the trigger on the day...? There are still plenty of undecided voters (enough to swing this), and voting 'yes' means voting for extreme uncertainty. Besides, this latest poll (and the panic move in Cable) should give a boost to the 'Better Together' campaign, ensuring a higher turnout for the 'No' votes. Anyone want to start fading this move in the run-up to the vote over the next ten days? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76222196583054682442014-09-08T23:33:34.485+01:002014-09-08T23:33:34.485+01:00in those dire times it is tempting for the wealthy...in those dire times it is tempting for the wealthy to split from the [lagging/poor/lazy etc]<br /><br />seeing Scotland, Cataluna, and even Flemish people intention at a regional level one is left to wonder how can a disparate lot like Europe still be in place todayNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14916568324484480312014-09-08T19:18:07.134+01:002014-09-08T19:18:07.134+01:00Attention, MM!! We have correlation breakdown toda...Attention, MM!! We have correlation breakdown today, for months USDJPY and SPX have been trading in lock step, and today that's all gone for a Burton. Likewise for a while EUR weakness has been good, and today it is suddenly bad for equities. FX regime change?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58886180543981466412014-09-08T18:07:43.865+01:002014-09-08T18:07:43.865+01:00"FREEDOM!""FREEDOM!"William Wallacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70250543375732353842014-09-08T18:06:04.038+01:002014-09-08T18:06:04.038+01:00The sweaties are dying to make a run for it with t...The sweaties are dying to make a run for it with the oil revenues and watch Westminster piss its pants. England is screwed forever if this happens as the Welsh will follow suit and then the Tories will rule in perpetuity, free to pillage and extract what little value remains within perfidious Albion.<br /><br />Don't be surprised to see Treasuries bought at the expense of gilts.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-844066118912702292014-09-08T18:00:35.638+01:002014-09-08T18:00:35.638+01:00C Says
Angus,
In truth by way of opinion I don'...C Says<br />Angus,<br />In truth by way of opinion I don't have a dog in this 'fight'. I'd expect both parties to do fine IF they treat a period of adaptation with some reasonable policies. However, in the shorter term one sees plenty of potential for chaos.<br />Indeed ,if I had a position I'd like it to be chairing one of the very may quangos which would spring to life post referendum.<br /><br />As to those numbers I did mention two other wee parts that should be nameless and I'd expect the three brought together to be above that national average. Historically, parties have tended to load the purse for their strongholds and guess what the further you get from London the less loved the Conservatives have been and the more loaded have been the transfers to Labour heartlands.<br />Having said which you buy a postcode in Burnley for the cost of decent shack in London. So, perhaps the transfers were more a sop than an outright reward.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37556169193264930362014-09-08T17:17:47.570+01:002014-09-08T17:17:47.570+01:00Agree with Anon 4.46.
Regardless of yes/no this b...Agree with Anon 4.46.<br /><br />Regardless of yes/no this brings more heat to Catalan story... In further great timing it is Catalan National Day on Thursday, which should see some nice protesting and maybe even a photo for FT front page on Friday.<br /><br />SPGB trading well inside BTPS, seems an easy mean revesion to play? If the scots story gets wiped off the table, unlikely to lose a lot... likewise if they go, Spanish bonds will open v wide next day... It is a much more serious part of their economy than Scotland is to the UK. Cheers macro man as ever.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73881039439253590972014-09-08T16:54:17.932+01:002014-09-08T16:54:17.932+01:00Angus says
Thanks C. I'd like to agree but a...Angus says<br /><br />Thanks C. I'd like to agree but am stuck with the fact that welfare spending in Scotland was 3238 quid a head compared with 3176 in rUK - a 2% or thereabouts difference. Total Barnett Formula transfers are in the region of 6 billion and would end soon anyway. Saw a comment by someone in a morning note that without North Sea oil and gas assets the current account deficit ( welfare transfers adjusted ) would hike to 6.9% from last years 4.4%. Haven't seen anything to indicate how a change of this order would reflect in interest/ exchange rates and how quickly. Just asking .<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64005506537059715832014-09-08T16:48:35.136+01:002014-09-08T16:48:35.136+01:00So where exactly is this scotland place everyone i...So where exactly is this scotland place everyone is talking about? Is it somewhere north of Watford? And why do the aborigines there want independence? Don't they like their nature reserve, after all they get free battered mars bars...E Longshanksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26507051631400518782014-09-08T16:46:09.334+01:002014-09-08T16:46:09.334+01:00by nature i do like to fade panic but i don think ...by nature i do like to fade panic but i don think moves done yet-yes vol has popped the abso level is nothing-9 vol after a 10 big fig move is still very cheap.<br />even a no vote makes things uncertain for a while -would wait before fading short sterling - and generally that contract has a bad habit of overshooting<br />(if anything yes vote might hit europe on catalunia fears?)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31958730336862698522014-09-08T16:29:35.067+01:002014-09-08T16:29:35.067+01:00C says
Angus,
"Any idea how a rUK currency wi...C says<br />Angus,<br />"Any idea how a rUK currency without oil and a trade deficit of 6.9% would trade ?". Adding in the reduction in welfare payments North of the border probably better in the long run. <br />In trying to rebalance this economy from one which has been using the public sector/welfare for decades to offset globalisation I would think Scotland leaving should be viewed as a good start bettered only if we could persuade Wales and Nth Ireland to follow. All comes down to lowering the transfer costs we currently bear.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49801536260647824262014-09-08T16:22:05.551+01:002014-09-08T16:22:05.551+01:00Angus says
There's a hint of complacency in ...Angus says <br /><br />There's a hint of complacency in this mornings research notes. Seems most of the big houses assume everything will be resolved quickly viz a currency union and asset distribution ( oil ). Problem with this resolving itself quickly is that the rUK government won't be in a position to agree on terms until after the May 2015 election. It makes more sense for London to wait until after the 2016 Scottish elections to hope that the SNP loses its majority in the Holyrood parliament. Gilts may not be happy to wait that long. In the interim of course it's more than likely that the SNP will sweep the board in the 2015 UK elections north of the border giving Labour a bloody nose. This situation is a gift that's going to keep on giving. Any idea how a rUK currency without oil and a trade deficit of 6.9% would trade ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62202461525225465522014-09-08T15:35:51.046+01:002014-09-08T15:35:51.046+01:00The whole Scottish thing is woad based nuts.
The...The whole Scottish thing is woad based nuts. <br /><br />The whole world is screwed up by centuries old gripes. There should be a global amnesty on all history and we start again with a clean sheetPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77419179448753434522014-09-08T13:46:20.075+01:002014-09-08T13:46:20.075+01:00If panic starts to set in on UK asset markets, FTS...If panic starts to set in on UK asset markets, FTSE would probably be the best buy IMO, though so far it hasnt done much. <br /><br />While some may look to the Canadian/Quebecois issue to draw parallels, it seems, from my limited knowledge of the area, that Scotland is much smaller relative to overall GDP at something like 10% vs 20% for the Frenchies. <br /><br />I like buying panic, but I just wonder how many ppl (outside UK specifically, like me) are just waking up to the issueabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.com