tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6960788039086914633..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Trading TrumpMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger99125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89868980464726953072017-02-10T10:09:41.012+00:002017-02-10T10:09:41.012+00:00Given the outcome of the ruling yesterday, it is c...Given the outcome of the ruling yesterday, it is conceivable that Trump may quit within 100 days and the markets ought to factor this in asap.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09237397525988783405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31478552711141628002017-02-06T14:02:23.808+00:002017-02-06T14:02:23.808+00:00@Left - perhaps Mr Bond is about to take off - or ...@Left - perhaps Mr Bond is about to take off - or perhaps its doing the same thing its done for the last 4 mondays this year - try to get up and run in the morning (with a corresponding gap down in equities), only to be trampled senseless by the running of equity bulls for the rest of the week, starting Tuesday.<br />I'm not holding my breath, but I do look forward to your analysis.washeduphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16030821372993949213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8946502707630172712017-02-06T13:34:32.275+00:002017-02-06T13:34:32.275+00:00Whether it is the result of PBoC tightening or inc...Whether it is the result of PBoC tightening or increasing political risk in France or Germany, there is no doubt that Treasuries are bid this morning, TLT will not just bounce off the Friday pull-back but gap open - perhaps Mr Bond is about to take off? We hope to be back later in the week with another technical analysis of recent trading in US fixed income instruments.<br /><br />Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34025682325558601042017-02-06T04:36:54.060+00:002017-02-06T04:36:54.060+00:00Nico G, isn't it all the way around? I thought...Nico G, isn't it all the way around? I thought if Patriots win it's down for the stock market this year.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72189417842475648802017-02-06T00:41:59.434+00:002017-02-06T00:41:59.434+00:00IPA and the bear club all we need to do is support...IPA and the bear club all we need to do is support the Atlanta falcons. i stopped in Osaka airport to watch the superbowl<br /><br /><br />Superbowl indicator beats any quant Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52651524152281387212017-02-05T17:28:35.599+00:002017-02-05T17:28:35.599+00:00MM, sorry for posting the link from competition. G...MM, sorry for posting the link from competition. Goldman circulated this late on Friday:<br /><br />http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/04/us-political-economic-risks-mounting-against-trumps-agenda-goldman-sachs-says.html<br />IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77552172321717779142017-02-04T06:33:02.639+00:002017-02-04T06:33:02.639+00:00I daresay I find value in the various HH, 12yo pos...I daresay I find value in the various HH, 12yo postings (esp 12yo, who also seems to have a rare talent for satire)... but on a broader note, they serve to remind us of a fairly important fact.. that macro trading is more than macro analysis... <br /><br />I'm more an FX trader myself than equities but 'keeping it simple' (which can also be roughly translated to 'don't break your head trying to call tops and/or bottoms') is something that works across product classes... <br />case in point - my personal pnl from the USDJPY moves last year... I was short at 120 and long at 101, but I made a fair bit less than those two positions should have because I kept using my 'brains' to call the reversal... exiting the trade and stopping back in multiple times...<br /><br />on a related note I found it interesting that Warren Buffet went ahead and bought a truckload of stocks post the Nov elections... talk about 'keeping it simple'..!!<br />https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-31/buffett-bought-12-billion-of-stock-from-election-through-fridaykoolbonghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09366394948600760367noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84586518655212048262017-02-04T04:31:16.068+00:002017-02-04T04:31:16.068+00:00Up_Side Down,
I hear you... HHs may also not kno...Up_Side Down, <br /><br />I hear you... HHs may also not know that 7s are wild in stock market history. 1987, 1997, 2007 are famous for their abrupt precipitous declines (all starting overnight in Asia). Not sure what's with the number as it's not a fib. Anyway, there are some things here that just worry me and feel weird. We have news like today from China get completely ignored. Metals took it on the chin: iron ore down almost 7% and copper almost 3%. Producers got demolished as well (and at the time when we are about to embark on the biggest, aka yuuuge, infrastructure spending of our lifetime). Chinese equities sold off, albeit not much as some traders are still on holiday. It was all due to a move by PBoC to rein in the excess liquidity and reduce rampant speculation on borrowed money. US market instead deeply considered a hope of the law repeal which will probably add the rampant speculation back in. I know, we also had NFP, but ADP has already given us heads up, this was hardly a surprise based on how accurately ADP has predicted NFP lately, the only difference was the wages (prompting a thought about Fed staying put in March). We'll see about that...<br /><br />Trade what you see and not what you think. Many times I catch myself saying it and then I come across a previous chart pattern that reminds me what I am seeing now. That's thinking. It's essentially what PTJ did back in 87 (with a big help from Peter Borish). They thought, and studied, and acted proactively rather than reactively. By no means am I comparing my stupid-ass brain with the ones of those geniuses, but I have something in mind that looks like it's about to play out. I've been talking about the transports for a while...<br /><br />Some similarities are at play on currency front as well. In 87 and 97 currencies played a key role immediately prior to the decline. US, Germany and Japan were involved in 87. I don't expect DJT and Merkel to kiss and make up. We are in for a doozy. China and Japan are also not about to curl up in a fetal position and succumb to DJT's pressure to stop their devals. These are all export economies.<br /><br />And speaking of 7s, cycles, and similarities: 87 and 97 crashes both happened in October (exactly ten years apart). And what happened in February of 2007, exactly ten years ago? Flash crash. HHs were already alive back then, albeit only two years old. The selloff started in China due to authorities' plan to clamp down on speculative trading with borrowed money. Oops...IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84997103643928407762017-02-04T00:22:35.834+00:002017-02-04T00:22:35.834+00:00IPA's comments on 1987 action got me looking a...IPA's comments on 1987 action got me looking at an old trend analysis from 1950 of the SP500 that I did exactly 9 years ago, before the worst of the 08 Downturn. Interesting that a full cycle later the updated Log regression shows a -10% change in the trend value for Feb 2017 (SPX = 2285). So in those terms it sits right on trend here. <br /><br />The gradient from 09-17 looks very much like both July 82 - Sept 87 and 1995-2000 to my eye.<br /><br />In the now 67 year trend the 1987 peak was little above trend, as is now. 2000 was way above 2SD (by my primitive math calc). The HHs are too young to remember down 20+% in 1 day (19 Oct 1987, a day engraved in my memory) Up_Side Downhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05152809175742835196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1540222762475567532017-02-03T21:21:58.652+00:002017-02-03T21:21:58.652+00:00HH, sorry for late reply, was busy losing money al...HH, sorry for late reply, was busy losing money all day. You are a winner in equities today. But I also trade other vehicles which may offset my wrong calls on equities on daily basis. So keep this in mind before asking me to wire you the money. Also, my equities shorts are nascent and not something I am going to kill myself over when they go against me 0.7%<br />We brought the boat back to the island to get you off of it. Your desire to remain on it may result in your being stranded for many months. I hope you have enough provisions to stay alive.<br /><br />washedup, I personally mirror HH's positions. But I know exactly what you mean ;)<br /><br />johno, PTJ lost shitload of money before he made a killing on that short.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70207826299950118422017-02-03T20:23:51.497+00:002017-02-03T20:23:51.497+00:00Just saw HH's post after I posted. A penetrati...Just saw HH's post after I posted. A penetrating and worthy observation. Reminded of this great PTJ quote: “Certain people have a greater proclivity for [macro trading] because they don’t have the need to feel intellectually superior to the crowd. It’s very hard to find a pure fundamentalist who’s also a very successful macro trader because it is so hard to have a hit rate north of 50 percent. The exceptions are in trading the very front end of interest rate curves or in specializing in just a few commodities or assets.”<br /><br />Just to add a twist, and to keep what is confusing, well, confusing -- PTJ made a killing being short from the '87 crash.johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16040229609133954282017-02-03T20:16:26.256+00:002017-02-03T20:16:26.256+00:00washed -- Don't let our secret out! If the unk...washed -- Don't let our secret out! If the unknowing trolls become knowing, then my algorithms that use their posts to this site to adjust how much I leverage my long equity exposure (always long of course, just a question of how levered!) will be thrown off.<br /><br />Big round trip in rates today, driven by ... Williams is the story, but I presume it's more to do with the equity market. The USD lives to die another day. Speaking of USD, the other day GS came out defending it. I appreciate several of their arguments, but their argument that real rate differentials have been supportive of the USD doesn't match what I'm looking at. 2Y US-German differentials look to have gone against the dollar since December.<br /><br />Interesting to think about what inflation break-evens and real rates are telling us and what the implications for the USD are. Look at US 5Y real rates. Trending down from the December peak. Would you say that's the bond market's verdict on real growth? Or something else? Supposing it's growth, then the bond market is telling us we have more inflation coming and lower growth, which sounds like stagflation. the '70's weren't a good time for the USD, I remind you all. Nor for stocks.<br /><br />Not to beat a dead horse but, the most beautiful trend in markets that we aren't all playing directly? No, not equities. Short the 30Y JGB. Seven months in a row going in one direction, and counting. Last time that happened on my BBG price history going back to '99? Never.<br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14544336322102397922017-02-03T20:02:26.200+00:002017-02-03T20:02:26.200+00:00washed
Thx, I'd love to take credit for my fo...washed<br /><br />Thx, I'd love to take credit for my forecasting abilities, but it was just so glaringly obvious. Having made v large returns being long equities on this continual move up, it wouldn't bother me if others here were also doing v well. However, I know they have not. The reason so many fail in this business is that their ego clouds their judgement. Constantly trying to prove their macro skills, calling tops in the market and suchlike is a losers game - and as we have seen time and again, many here consistently lose. I trust you personally have been more astute.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84737181247904490792017-02-03T19:03:18.157+00:002017-02-03T19:03:18.157+00:00@HH - yes - u were right and deserve credit for ca...@HH - yes - u were right and deserve credit for calling it - you are extremely good at forecasting short term moves - did you know participants here all publicly make fun of you but then quietly just copy your position?<br /><br />@Johno - this is an interesting one because there are more than a few inconsistencies in Yellen's stance - in August she is making a case for being allowed to buy stocks and further QE at Jackson Hole and then she is out talking about rolloffs? Anyway - I think the global picture matters in terms of the impact on yields given the marginal demand seems to all be relative to JGBs/bunds, so the standalone analysis is kind of meaningless - that said, this year around $200 BN will rolloff from the Fed, but far more than that (say $750 BN) will be purchased by BoJ and ECB - one really has to be a believer in the power of the 2nd derivative to think it would constitute a tapering - 2018 is the 1st year when you could say the combined effect of all CB's actions amount to negative liquidity (unless of course, SPX declines a few bps and they all sh@t their pants again). That raises the further question of how the market would price in an upcoming global liquidity taper to be preceded by an ongoing glut - you would think 2's/5's would steepen, not so sure further out. washeduphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16030821372993949213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9563122591588113532017-02-03T18:40:03.347+00:002017-02-03T18:40:03.347+00:00Yes, you're a genius, HH. Moving on ...
I com...Yes, you're a genius, HH. Moving on ...<br /><br />I completely missed this footnote from Yellen's January 19 speech:<br /><br />“17. Based on estimates generated using the term-structure model developed by Li and Wei (2013) and the procedure discussed in Ihrig and others (2012) and extended by Engen, Laubach, and Reifschneider (2015), the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities continue to put considerable downward pressure on longer-term interest rates. However, this pressure is estimated to be gradually easing as the average maturity of the portfolio declines and the end-date for reinvestment draws closer. Over the course of 2017, this easing could increase the yield on the 10-year Treasury note by about 15 basis points, all else being equal. Based on the estimated co-movement of short-term and long-term interest rates, such a change in longer-term yields would be similar to that which, on average, has historically accompanied two 25 basis point hikes in the federal funds rate.”<br /><br />So, Yellen footnoting a study suggesting that this year's autopilot duration shortening of the Fed's holdings is equivalent to 2 rate hikes. Any thoughts on that?<br /><br />EURUSD can't hold 1.08, gold can't break 1220, USDJPY after breaking 112.5 has stopped short of 112 three times now. USD keeps us in suspense.<br /><br />Anyone expecting Trump to openly criticize the BoJ's monetary policy as de facto FX manipulation during his pow wow with Abe on the 10-11th?<br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78166627095836435252017-02-03T15:49:53.192+00:002017-02-03T15:49:53.192+00:00IPA, MANU etc
How're those short equity index...IPA, MANU etc<br /><br />How're those short equity index trades coming along? Do you still think I need those puts? lol<br /><br />Celeriac<br />I don't know about 12yo HFM (wasn;t he a parody account?) but I do know I'm cleaning up. My offer for the members of this board to just wire me their funds direct and cut out the broker/exchange fees still stands bwahahaha<br /><br />Have a great weekend guys!<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28222931812496065302017-02-03T13:56:21.047+00:002017-02-03T13:56:21.047+00:00It has been one whole day and Deutsche Bank has no...It has been one whole day and Deutsche Bank has not been caught committing another crime<br /><br />BBG: "Deutsche Bank to Cut Equities and Fixed Income Trading Staff<br /><br />Cuts said to affect up to 6% of FI staff and 17% of equities"Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11693354139038135784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21283141564396001182017-02-03T13:40:23.023+00:002017-02-03T13:40:23.023+00:00The mother-of-all-short-squeezes in ICE.L means 12...The mother-of-all-short-squeezes in ICE.L means 12yo & his posse will have cleaned up again today. No doubt he'll be along to share the great news shortly.Celeriac1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15149056185371253333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60165710899935570552017-02-03T08:29:37.825+00:002017-02-03T08:29:37.825+00:00@HH - Happy with my shorts and puts in SPY, XHB an...@HH - Happy with my shorts and puts in SPY, XHB and XRT, also shorting USDMXN. <br /><br />If I was you I would be buying some puts for your longs too.. you know, just in case.MANUhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05662240644818340893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58401017041899079812017-02-03T03:06:33.582+00:002017-02-03T03:06:33.582+00:00Chinese NY over - Commodity rally over ? I'm o...Chinese NY over - Commodity rally over ? I'm out Rosscohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18218092677103028057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51346789322413186612017-02-02T23:13:03.213+00:002017-02-02T23:13:03.213+00:00Re McHenry letter. Fits with the theory of rule ch...Re McHenry letter. Fits with the theory of rule change to auit Ts biggest sponsors.How many bankers in his pack? It's like watching a bank robbery.. in reverse.<br /><br />Hand over that money to the banks or else. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85278810301063192722017-02-02T22:48:28.225+00:002017-02-02T22:48:28.225+00:00HH, come see us after the close tomorrow.
Also, ...HH, come see us after the close tomorrow. <br /><br />Also, I hear that after it gets dark on the island, margin clerks come out of the jungle. Watch out, you may get swallowed alive.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57967495628056516392017-02-02T21:55:42.588+00:002017-02-02T21:55:42.588+00:00Guys, how are all your shorts doing? It's almo...Guys, how are all your shorts doing? It's almost like the markets refuse to go down isn't it?<br /><br />Look, if you want to just wire your funds to me direct, we could save everyone a lot of time. Bwahahaha Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22722687484774081452017-02-02T19:55:36.397+00:002017-02-02T19:55:36.397+00:00Meanwhile, I am sitting here marveling at Mr McHen...Meanwhile, I am sitting here marveling at Mr McHenry's letter to Janet Yellen - not that I am a fan of the global central banking cabal, but it would be interesting if one of these days some Trump emboldened republican with a rudimentary knowledge of financial interconnectedness (not to mention the Orange blob himself) goes bitching to the Fed about their propping up foreign banks and they go - um ok, all urs then. <br />On second thoughts, after the resulting stench of napalm dissipates, they will probably blame everything on a girl being allowed to run things.<br />@IPA doesn't get any more textbook than that IYT chart - a couple false alarms on that recently though so lets see what happens.washeduphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16030821372993949213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78538746521686760572017-02-02T18:03:51.493+00:002017-02-02T18:03:51.493+00:00DJ Transports neckline of double top is @ 9K, IYT ...DJ Transports neckline of double top is @ 9K, IYT @ 162, and XTN is chewing on it @ $53.70 as I type. Starting to look a bit ugly for longs here.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.com