tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6908504272958694647..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: BOJ thoughtsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger50125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17148280561576530832016-07-31T20:11:30.337+01:002016-07-31T20:11:30.337+01:00@amplitudeinthehouse, you represent about 1/3rd of...@amplitudeinthehouse, you represent about 1/3rd of the volume of the posts below this blog entry, and no more than 1/33rd of the value. #sold as 12yo HFM would say.celeriac1972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27252264059989612892016-07-31T16:36:20.350+01:002016-07-31T16:36:20.350+01:00I am a value investor. When I don't see value ...I am a value investor. When I don't see value I do not invest. It's that simple. I have no problem sitting on a stagnant return for has long has it takes to find value.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55745692688572499812016-07-31T16:16:34.939+01:002016-07-31T16:16:34.939+01:00Checkmate, it's a given that if you and your f...Checkmate, it's a given that if you and your friends next conference getaway decide to attack what little alpha there is left in the tank of this market, be sure to play my favourite little rockabye lollabye...<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2J1Pa1PiuYamplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27312213450459431732016-07-31T14:04:26.529+01:002016-07-31T14:04:26.529+01:00"or if you are the EU with the core holding u..."or if you are the EU with the core holding up the currency of the Med and stopping those competitive adjustments getting made."<br /><br />checkmate...forget going to the FED or the Global International Monetary Fund. I'm running the other way from this market and if you don't forget about it yourself this market will only bring you grief, of the most expensive type you will have ever have known. And you know! <br /><br />amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18610998872107719362016-07-31T12:12:58.238+01:002016-07-31T12:12:58.238+01:00Meanwhile back on planet earth the relationship be...Meanwhile back on planet earth the relationship between share buybacks / high dividend payouts and the converse poor performance of Capex correlates very well with the remarks above from Gundlach. In effect central banks have basically failed to restore the imbalance in global supply and demand ,but have managed to create an environment where there is now a paucity of value investments to be made. Hence, The comments from Gundlach to "sell it all" and the action of corps to make buybacks rather make Capex. In effect the corps don't have to be concerned by value in the sense that Gundlach means they just have to take the least bad option which means stock piling cash and reducing the share float rather than making Capex investments that fly in the face of the elephant in the room issue which is Global demand.<br /><br />This is mostly a 'West' problem. The East and emerging get well when the West does. The West does not do that until it understands that transmission from monetary policy doesn't work very well until they find a way of funnelling it into the system at the bottom of the income tree. Bearing that in mind of course then austerity policy is counter productive because it hit's there to a greater extent than further up the income ladder. German EU policy and to a large extent the UK have failed badly by not lighting a financial nuke under infrastructure.<br />The days when they could have done this using national debt and then just devaluing relative to the rest of the world don't work of course if like the UK you convince the market you are dealing with debt ,or if you are the EU with the core holding up the currency of the Med and stopping those competitive adjustments getting made.<br />Without a major rethink I very much doubt I will live long enough to see the West climb out of this economic rut so maybe 50 year bonds are saying the same thing?.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29942215041932529472016-07-31T10:49:28.094+01:002016-07-31T10:49:28.094+01:00....YOURS!....YOURS!amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11802845769488777622016-07-31T10:48:35.636+01:002016-07-31T10:48:35.636+01:00No way Anon..I've spent years and years doing ...No way Anon..I've spent years and years doing the rounds putting the team together, and there's no way someone from the backwoods of the planet Episolon is going to pinch my chi!amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36886009666976515852016-07-31T10:40:26.954+01:002016-07-31T10:40:26.954+01:00i want some of what he is havingi want some of what he is havingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12691766859340474312016-07-31T10:29:42.772+01:002016-07-31T10:29:42.772+01:00Hey Macro Man..I cannot remember the last time som...Hey Macro Man..I cannot remember the last time someone said I look like a pony..I mean what else must Wall Street think I am. <br />Oh..that's it..Oliver...please...(bends over) may I have some more?amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61701762459477154062016-07-31T09:52:07.638+01:002016-07-31T09:52:07.638+01:00I have vision..
I have epiphany..
I have seen t...I have vision..<br /><br />I have epiphany..<br /> <br />I have seen the light..<br /><br />It is a thousand miles from New York..<br /><br />It is a Sportshedgefund..<br /><br />Where the only people we f##k over are the bookies!<br /><br />amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42829689220554790122016-07-31T09:24:57.325+01:002016-07-31T09:24:57.325+01:00Macro Man, you say your looking for a new job..hat...Macro Man, you say your looking for a new job..hat tip, move overseas. There's a Bernie Madoff on every corner in New York and just like him they come in different strips everyday :)..amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69846900872319407192016-07-31T09:19:27.538+01:002016-07-31T09:19:27.538+01:00Sorry, Macro Man..but sometimes you gotta call out...Sorry, Macro Man..but sometimes you gotta call out bullshit when you see it. And believe me , USA is the biggest bullshit story in the world at the moment. You'd be better off moving to Thailand and meditating on the beaches and just laugh how the USA market just bullshit and bullshit their product to the world, be it Wall Street, Hollywood or "usa exceptionalism" ..it's all bullshit. The whole lot. amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27579644123797058122016-07-31T09:12:14.988+01:002016-07-31T09:12:14.988+01:00Abee, do really really want to take me on , do you...Abee, do really really want to take me on , do you really really think I'm going sit at the same conference table each morning and spew guts up in front of you and your USA friends each day about the USA markets. Go buy yourself gift voucher for pony or something..leave a poor alone. amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76115112637057042512016-07-31T09:06:38.457+01:002016-07-31T09:06:38.457+01:00Abee, buy yourself another mug! I'm not gettin...Abee, buy yourself another mug! I'm not getting out bed. Period. amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19025911507705027212016-07-31T09:04:43.917+01:002016-07-31T09:04:43.917+01:00Abee, thats F##kin bullshit.USA markets are a non-...Abee, thats F##kin bullshit.USA markets are a non-event. period amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63232790335019218592016-07-30T16:25:42.837+01:002016-07-30T16:25:42.837+01:00One man's view:
"The frenetic rally in s...One man's view:<br /><br />"The frenetic rally in stocks we have seen since the post-Brexit low six weeks ago, has been of the lowest quality I have ever seen. It has occurred with steadily falling volume. There has been almost no individual or institutional participation. It has been all about companies buying back their own stock, and hedge funds covering losing shorts on stop-loss orders."<br /><br />"With the Dow Average up NINE CONSECUTIVE DAYS mid-month, we approached a three standard deviation move in prices. Usually, you only see moves of this magnitude in sudden gaps DOWN. You saw this in the two day, 1000 point drop that followed Brexit, the 10% melt down in January triggered by weak Chinese economic data, and the August 2015 1,100 point flash crash. To see three standard deviations on a move UP is a once in a lifetime event. The last time I saw one was in 1989 at the end of the great Japanese bull market. The S&P 500 is now 7.67% above its 50-day moving average, an occurrence as scarce as hens' teeth. You almost have to be as old as me to remember how often this happens. The narrowness of this rally is almost unprecedented. My technical friends have been jumping up and down screaming that only 28 of the S&P 500 are at all-time highs, and a mere 78 are in clear uptrends. To see so much buying focused on so few shares is unnerving, to say the least. All of the above is why I have sold short the S&P 500."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39325422065989759512016-07-30T14:11:04.012+01:002016-07-30T14:11:04.012+01:00Perhaps famous last words but frankly I now consid...Perhaps famous last words but frankly I now consider G3 central bank intervention a short squeeze opportunity on which to start selling equities. US does well? rate hike. US does bad? Global growth goes to crap. Eurozone + UK? Brexit is only the beginning. Japan? Call me in 40 years to see if it's not an uninhabited island. SRXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08893693527065807228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17163687058049192272016-07-30T13:54:28.935+01:002016-07-30T13:54:28.935+01:00@abee - DZ is bearish now? I don't get his mis...@abee - DZ is bearish now? I don't get his missives regularly so curious what changed his opinion.<br /><br />Big Tech earnings were incredible - I found the fact that nasdaq was up last week with 75-80% stocks in the Q's down, even more incredible. Kind of reflects the new silicon valley winner takes all economy I suppose.<br /><br />Am I the only one who can't understand how JPY is 102, bonds can't sell off, and gold keeps catching a bid despite the clear lack of an imminent herikoputa, even as SPX is at ATH? Maybe its a stock selectors market after all and macro doesn't matter anymore to equities. Or maybe its lack of volume. Or maybe I managed to wear away my brain despite never having played football (sorry I watched concussion last nt its on my mind). I think some of these markets are epically wrong - I am beginning to think it might be gold.<br /><br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42577643203606022822016-07-30T13:08:36.649+01:002016-07-30T13:08:36.649+01:00Cheers Bint, though to be fair Gundlach has never ...Cheers Bint, though to be fair Gundlach has never been a roaring jbtfd, equity bull this cycle. Zervos has been drunken sailor lover of Qe and spoos but recently turned bearish. Dr ed yardeni, still bullish. And my personal favorite francois Trahan still bullish here. Grants is increasingly bearish but not known as a market timer. Soros and druckenMiller bearish. John burbank bearish. Got no idea on the tiger Cubs, which would be interesting along with lone pine, Egerton, the more growthy guys. I know a few industrial focused guys are pretty bullish, even though s5indu looking vulnerable. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30728613601105704422016-07-30T13:07:37.274+01:002016-07-30T13:07:37.274+01:00Cheers Bint, though to be fair Gundlach has never ...Cheers Bint, though to be fair Gundlach has never been a roaring jbtfd, equity bull this cycle. Zervos has been drunken sailor lover of Qe and spoos but recently turned bearish. Dr ed yardeni, still bullish. And my personal favorite francois Trahan still bullish here. Grants is increasingly bearish but not known as a market timer. Soros and druckenMiller bearish. John burbank bearish. Got no idea on the tiger Cubs, which would be interesting along with lone pine, Egerton, the more growthy guys. I know a few industrial focused guys are pretty bullish, even though s5indu looking vulnerable. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33248185819605521172016-07-30T13:01:39.969+01:002016-07-30T13:01:39.969+01:00So Q.1 2016 GDP was revised to down 0.3% to 0.8%, ...So Q.1 2016 GDP was revised to down 0.3% to 0.8%, Q.2 2016 US GDP was 1.2%, so H1 was 1%. Hard to imagine why stocks rallied on that, unless it anticipates further immanent easing due to this. Perhaps it's more of bad news is good news until it's not. Boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69114355388339794072016-07-30T12:57:54.423+01:002016-07-30T12:57:54.423+01:00http://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-doubleline...http://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-doubleline-gundlach-idUSKCN1092BO<br /><br />“The artist Christopher Wool has a word painting, ‘Sell the house, sell the car, sell the kids.’ That’s exactly how I feel – sell everything. Nothing here looks good,” Gundlach said in a telephone interview.<br /><br />“The stock markets should be down massively but investors seem to have been hypnotized that nothing can go wrong.”<br /><br /> “We never short in our mainline strategies. We also never go to zero Treasuries. We went to lower weightings and change the duration,” Gundlach said. Currently, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is 1.45%, which has translated into some profits so far for DoubleLine. “The yield on the 10-year yield may reverse and go lower again but I am not interested. You don’t make any money. The risk-reward is horrific,” Gundlach said. “There is no upside” in Treasury prices.<br /><br />It appears Mr. Gundlach might be willing to sell to interested commenters here....Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76002745252555795752016-07-30T06:56:28.809+01:002016-07-30T06:56:28.809+01:00Please be patient he is finishing his paper round ...Please be patient he is finishing his paper round and will no doubt reply in due course.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50139230187176042482016-07-30T00:18:46.002+01:002016-07-30T00:18:46.002+01:00Sigma ... so does this mean that you think equitie...Sigma ... so does this mean that you think equities will not be skyrocketing from here on out?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48052582089979140162016-07-29T22:48:42.509+01:002016-07-29T22:48:42.509+01:00Back from my Mediterranean yacht voyage...
The di...Back from my Mediterranean yacht voyage...<br /><br />The dip buying in TLT, LQD, EMB and 5y UST and selling vol on HYG, XLU, and XLP for the past two weeks produced stellar performance. You can easily program a robot to buy dips for you (if you know VBA at least), so you don't need to waste your time watching screens and pushing "buy" buttons. Yes, the risk-parity does pay handsomely...<br /><br />The bearishness in UST is about to finish. Once people realize that no hike is coming from this FED in the next decade, all bonds aroud the globe will skyrocket. I am targeting 5y UST at 50bp, 10y at 80bp, and 30y at 100bp by mid of next year. Perhaps being too conservative though.<br /><br />To bears in bonds and anything related to yield, please do continue to sell: Daddy needs to buy a NEW, BIG yacht for his Christmas cruise!Sigmanoreply@blogger.com