tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6870575745739384639..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The Quincunx Page TurnerMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47204132287104568232020-03-19T07:57:45.472+00:002020-03-19T07:57:45.472+00:00Thank you for the valuable information.iam very mu...Thank you for the valuable information.iam very much impressed with this one.<br />Looking forward for the good posts.<br /><a href="https://www.pubgmobilegamer.com/pubg-theme-apk-download/" rel="nofollow">pubg themes</a><br /><a href="https://www.pubgmobilegamer.com/pubg-ringtone-wallpaper-download-apk/" rel="nofollow">pubg ringtone download</a><br /><a href="https://www.pubgmobilegamer.com/pubg-gfx-hack-tool-download/" rel="nofollow">pubg hack tool download</a><br /><a href="https://www.pubgmobilegamer.com/pubg-mobile-apk-download/" rel="nofollow">pubg mobile apk download</a>Faisal Aminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15024090104215683938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52162956314814579922018-09-06T06:46:47.285+01:002018-09-06T06:46:47.285+01:00BREAKING NEWS: USD Currency Collapse
China Causes...BREAKING NEWS: USD Currency Collapse<br /><br />China Causes The USD To Fall?<br /><br />USD Dollar Drops 50% In Value Overnight?<br /><br />Hey there<br /><br />I don’t know you have heard this yet…<br /><br />But the USD Dollar is on the verge of collapse.<br /><br />In fact since 1973 it’s been on a downward trend…<br /><br />Dollar-Index-Past-Forty-Years<br /><br />USD national debt is at an all time high and now financial experts are saying that China is starting to sell their debt holdings to the secondary market.<br /><br />This means it won’t be too long until the USD crumbles in value!<br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.mobilethemesworld.com/2018/09/05/cbs-best-financial-survival-product/" rel="nofollow">>>Watch This Video To Learn More<<</a></b><br /><br />I don’t want to be the bringer of bad news, but this is seriously not good for the US since we already have domestic problems of our own, such as immigration and unemployment.<br /><br />Our economy can not withstand another hit.<br /><br />This time the USD might actually collapse.<br /><br /><b><a href="http://www.mobilethemesworld.com/2018/09/05/cbs-best-financial-survival-product/" rel="nofollow">>>Watch This Video To Learn More<<</a></b><br /><br />Make sure you watch it before it’s taken offline.<br /><br />Speak soon.<br /><br />[Mr Mark Fidelman]<br /><br /> Paul Cianfaglione https://www.blogger.com/profile/07387438506837253681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10912463129368439562017-02-21T16:42:14.550+00:002017-02-21T16:42:14.550+00:00@washed, many thanks for the insight - especially ...@washed, many thanks for the insight - especially in the context of current vs. prior peaks. My little rinky-dink model shows an increased loading of the inflation expectation factor on prices on a rolling basis, but I had a feeling I was looking through a soda straw and focusing on that too much.<br /><br /> thudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12646899230431035396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48762173356266698572017-02-21T11:09:11.295+00:002017-02-21T11:09:11.295+00:00If even a light version of the below takes effect,...If even a light version of the below takes effect, Chinese bubble funding will grind to a screeching halt. Look out below in basic materials.<br /><br />https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-21/china-said-to-draft-rules-to-rein-in-asset-management-risksEM/PMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07623938499885092195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11476034546502469262017-02-20T23:30:37.766+00:002017-02-20T23:30:37.766+00:00recreation:
check the line up at Maher two days a...recreation:<br /><br />check the line up at Maher two days ago.... wish we'd get more TV like this<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CEVC2Wu8uQNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18729447072809117692017-02-20T22:58:50.422+00:002017-02-20T22:58:50.422+00:00not overstated in image
http://imgur.com/a/DIElL
...not overstated in image<br /><br />http://imgur.com/a/DIElL<br /><br />you gotta love the bottom at the bottom (early 2016)Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57671254757812635952017-02-20T21:52:24.230+00:002017-02-20T21:52:24.230+00:00@thud the oil positioning issue is quite overstate...@thud the oil positioning issue is quite overstated - both as % of OI and total capital it comes nowhere close to prior peaks - plus, producers have been hedging like crazy and someone has to take the other side - US production will likely surprise to the upside this year, but for now specs may get away with it given seasonality and some interest in inflation hedging. Its really the latter thats been keeping a floor on crude - if long bonds get going and/or IPA is right on a deflationary pulse (however temporary) coming back thats when I would worry about oil - right now its in the Charlie Munger 'too hard' category as far as Im concerned.washeduphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16030821372993949213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46205836964328147862017-02-20T20:12:09.936+00:002017-02-20T20:12:09.936+00:00IPA, color noted and appreciated! More humor is w...IPA, color noted and appreciated! More humor is what we need here. Fear, ridicule, and sarcasm make us better.<br /><br />Anyone have any commentary on the grinding higher of long oil speculative positions?thudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12646899230431035396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38396916816256532652017-02-20T18:46:02.093+00:002017-02-20T18:46:02.093+00:00thud, yes, it was me :) Have not had a margin call...thud, yes, it was me :) Have not had a margin call in 17 yrs (knock on wood). I was trying to add some color to the debate. I have four TVs in the house and almost never turn them on. My kids own the rights. There is rarely anything worth watching any more, especially now! I get my raw news from the wires and personally don't like to be told by the reporter what they mean.<br /><br />johno, my point is that most of the spikes in Philly Fed and ISM (as was correctly pointed out by abee) mark short-term highs in the economic noise. It gives traders a good mark to shoot for in contrarian way. I don't hold positions too long so I am not going to argue the good times the market may have over the long term. We are due for a serious correction here, imo.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34386645325254974592017-02-20T18:24:20.537+00:002017-02-20T18:24:20.537+00:00IPA, we don't even know yet what Trump's t...IPA, we don't even know yet what Trump's tax plan is. My going assumption is that Ryan/Brady's plan is un-passable, but that a base broadening reform plan bringing the rate down to mid-20s is passable. We'll see. We still need an Obamacare replace/repeal. From WSJ: "GOP leaders consider handling Obamacare first vital for procedural reasons. It’s necessary to resolve the costs and tax implications of the health plan to write a new budget. And under congressional rules a new budget plan is necessary to provide an umbrella under which a tax overhaul can be passed with a simple majority, thereby avoiding a potentially deadly Democratic filibuster in the Senate."<br /><br />When I look at the Philly Fed, I see confirmation of the cyclical upswing. Hitting 40 hasn't meant dropping into recession shortly afterwards. Quite the contrary. Last couple times, eye-balling the chart, were mid-83 and end-93. Those following years were good times for the stock market.<br /><br />Unless Trump does something stupid, I could well see the next real challenge for global growth being a post-19th National Congress slowdown in China. I wonder whether the market will be able to price that before the fact.<br /><br />Weekend barbs exchanged between Hamon and Melenchon are, to me, more positive for OATS than Le Pen going up a point in the polls.<br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35612540475770266992017-02-20T17:50:43.634+00:002017-02-20T17:50:43.634+00:00IPA, you were without a TV following a margin call...IPA, you were without a TV following a margin call, right? Hah! Unless that wasn't you who posted that... then the joke falls flat and this post spirals out of control quickly.<br /><br />Moving on.<br /><br />johno, good point on the coincident cyclical lift -- I think some narratives miss that point, and I think it's an important balance to the near term hand-wringing over Trump's missteps. Regarding your question over the BAT scenario, Brad Setser has some good thoughts:<br />http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2017/02/14/how-serious-is-the-threat-to-global-financial-stability-from-a-border-adjustment-tax/<br /><br />thudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12646899230431035396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10128198884684734282017-02-19T20:00:44.176+00:002017-02-19T20:00:44.176+00:00johno, I finally bought a TV and turned it on this...johno, I finally bought a TV and turned it on this morning. The "phenomenal" and "massive" tax reform is UNPASSABLE.<br /><br />The cyclical factors you are referring to are the delayed orders going through now due to election uncertainty lifted. It is unsustainable at best and will be followed by sharp drops at worst. Pull up Philly Fed Mfg Index going back to 1971 and draw a horizontal line through 40.<br /><br />http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/320306-graham-ryan-tax-plan-wont-get-10-votes-in-the-senate#IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91003670114922182032017-02-19T18:40:32.408+00:002017-02-19T18:40:32.408+00:00@abee, thanks for that feedback from your meetings...@abee, thanks for that feedback from your meetings. Seems consistent with sentiment data I see, which has institutions very bullish. One thing I perhaps didn't appreciate at times the past couple months is how Trump's election coincided with a cyclical lift. Arguably, there was risk premium going into the election which got priced out too. With cyclical factors pushing out the next recession beyond 12 months, an election over with, and duration riskier, it's hard to argue with a higher stock market.<br /><br />@checkmate, yes, he is not inspiring confidence. His tax plan, the timing for which seems to be pushed to mid-March from before Feb 24 previously may be a reality check for the market. We'll see.<br /><br />By the way, can anyone imagine a scenario where we introduce a border tax and China doesn't let its currency fall 20%? China is the world's factory, so that's where the adjustment would have to happen. If it doesn't, the shock to US middle class real income will push the US into recession (not to mention China). But let's imagine China does let its currency go. Trump will probably call them a manipulator then, tariffs will be applied, trade war, etc.. And then China will have massive outflows, depression, etc.. IF Trump includes a border adjustment tax in his proposal, I think it's extremely courageous to hold equity risk. Of course, the market may trade up on the very low corporate tax rate the tax enables, and that would be God's gift to sell equities.<br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52696358300503858932017-02-19T01:27:31.360+00:002017-02-19T01:27:31.360+00:00IPA you may very well be right. I am just waiting ...IPA you may very well be right. I am just waiting a little bit before gearing up the shorts. Sell in May maybe...I dont have the mental capacity to fight the tape all the timeabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3947996489812579802017-02-18T17:04:01.271+00:002017-02-18T17:04:01.271+00:00abee, I don't think it'll be the economy t...abee, I don't think it'll be the economy that will bring the market down. Not calling for a crash or a bear, but a 10-15% correction would suffice to reset the "animal spirits" recklessness of sub 10 VIX. You have a bully intrenched in the highest office in the world of politics, armed with a nuclear arsenal which he just casually mentioned at his first presser. My notion is simple, we will wake up one day scratching our heads and wondering what we were thinking. Limit down would take on a different meaning altogether. While he is sitting and writing daily list of adjectives for juicing the only theme holding his presidency together, he blows away close allies and gives ammunition to fiercest enemies all in one presser. It was a political suicide. What a shame! I said it before and let me repeat, he single-handedly will end this rally. I think it'll be a fight with Paul Ryan or a geopolitical matter. Economy would follow...IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23952543590800583722017-02-18T11:53:11.866+00:002017-02-18T11:53:11.866+00:00I was willing to give Trump the benefit of the dou...I was willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt. That is, that is public demeanor was some kind of 'show'. Having parsed some of his recent media events I conclude that I was wrong. The guys an unintelligible moron. Back him if you want ,but I'll take a pass.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39748408866905940362017-02-18T05:44:03.034+00:002017-02-18T05:44:03.034+00:00met with a bunch of PM's the past few days. Ha...met with a bunch of PM's the past few days. Have to say I didnt find any that were bearish on the cyclical outlook for the economy. Trump has his 100 days. after that the questions will start getting tougher. But until then i think market gives him benefit of the doubt. <br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15827423130466961702017-02-18T01:27:27.172+00:002017-02-18T01:27:27.172+00:00Oops...
WASHINGTON POST
Fannie Mae says Trump’s ...Oops...<br /><br />WASHINGTON POST<br /><br />Fannie Mae says Trump’s tax cut plan could drive it into the red<br /><br />February 17, 2017 at 6:27 PM<br /><br />TREASURY<br /><br />Fannie Mae could be hurt by tax cuts<br /><br />Mortgage finance provider Fannie Mae said Friday it will pay the Treasury $5.5 billion in dividends in March, but warned that it would face losses and again require taxpayer support if President Trump’s plan to slash corporate taxes comes to fruition.<br /><br />A significant cut in corporate tax rates, from the current marginal federal rate of 35 percent, would result in Fannie having to write down its deferred tax assets, according to the government-sponsored financier.<br /><br />If the write-down were greater than its capital, Fannie said, it would have to draw on its credit line with the U.S. treasury, as it did during the global financial crisis more than eight years ago.<br /><br />Fannie’s quarterly dividends stemmed from its $5.04 billion in net income in the fourth quarter, which lifted its annual income to $12.31 billion in 2016 and its total payments to the government to $159.9 billion.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-741935687846977182017-02-17T21:09:01.172+00:002017-02-17T21:09:01.172+00:00Bears are a rare breed these days:
http://www.zer...Bears are a rare breed these days:<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-17/another-bear-throws-towel-canadas-most-famous-investor-closes-bearish-hedges-after-h<br /><br />All signs of a elevator drop coming... dfdsfiolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09424903490091670724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18979027212599958792017-02-17T19:39:37.087+00:002017-02-17T19:39:37.087+00:00https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snDpp9DxcEE
lol, ...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snDpp9DxcEE<br /><br />lol, US state secrets and foreign policy intentions flying aroundhipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9077901205887727142017-02-17T18:51:28.729+00:002017-02-17T18:51:28.729+00:00God bless Boeing.
Brilliant.
Seriously, though, ...God bless Boeing.<br /><br />Brilliant.<br /><br />Seriously, though, some parts of the speech seemed to channel Reagan... ideas from the that era's playbook when it comes to tax reform and fiscal stimulus? Tempered with the differentials in debt, rates, and workforce demographics, of course.<br /><br />johno - agree with non-binary outcome. Again, it speaks to the uncertainty of what this tax plan will really look like against the ex-ante of market action since the word "phenomenal" was thrown around. thudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12646899230431035396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78084388498231675642017-02-17T17:12:33.671+00:002017-02-17T17:12:33.671+00:00Re BAT, sometimes the outcome isn't binary. Wh...Re BAT, sometimes the outcome isn't binary. What are the other possible outcomes here? Ryan now talking about possibility of "a gradual transition" to BAT. Another possibility is a BAT rate lower than 20%. If anyone sees a fudge here, please share.<br /><br />It's funny, Yellen talking about inflation. Blackrock talking about inflation. I don't see it. Look at ECI YOY Index and REALYAWE Index ... flat-lining.<br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29080124004355101632017-02-17T17:08:19.742+00:002017-02-17T17:08:19.742+00:00Re: BAT
Nails have been hit on the head -- you ca...Re: BAT<br /><br />Nails have been hit on the head -- you can't get a deficit-neutral tax plan in place without something to balance out the reduction in corporate taxes. Without that deficit-neutral piece, you can't get it through the Senate under reconciliation. <br /><br />@washed: Key risk indeed. The lack of GOP solidarity (if there ever was a chance for such a thing) calls into question the key assumptions of a Republican D.C. I wonder how long the market will accept the delay between expectations and action. At some point FX vol will translate over (especially to johno's point about BAT)... thudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12646899230431035396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26748964693785340392017-02-17T16:57:47.001+00:002017-02-17T16:57:47.001+00:00My thoughts on tax reform and something Nico G sai...My thoughts on tax reform and something Nico G said about DJT's opponents now standing to profit from him. I am watching a group which may become the best indicator of the tax bill's passage - airlines. Warren Buffet dipped his toe in the group before the election but majorly loaded on their stocks right after the election in hopes of a tax cut. Of course, he did not say that, we think that. The man knew or purely speculated before the election that DJT would win. Let's remember that Buffet was his strong and very vocal opponent. 2017 is not supposed to be a kind year for the airlines and it's clear that a tax cut to 15% for the sector with an effective tax rate pushing 40% is what the Oracle is banking on. While he initiated a smaller position in AAL, DAL, and UAL in Q3 2016, he upped the ante by a ton in Q4 and loaded up on LUV as well. If Warren thought something other than tax cuts I think he probably would have bought them sooner. He absolutely hated airlines ever since his USAirways debacle in 1990s. Now he possibly stands to profit from the advantage which may be given to them by the man he so strongly opposed. How ironic...<br /><br />Anyway, I am watching airlines stocks' closing prices as of the day they met with DJT. Berkshire's 13F became public a few days after. Should they lose the altitude in a major way, I will start to think that hopes of a tax cut are waning. Certainly, there are other headwinds for them but probably fully priced in (and now they have a Buffett put), unless crude oil decides to take a major hike above $55. <br /><br />JETSIPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48216588907661886782017-02-17T16:06:24.186+00:002017-02-17T16:06:24.186+00:00@washed, my mind turned to that key "risk peo...@washed, my mind turned to that key "risk people are missing" the night of the election. However, the stock market doesn't look out that far, and so will fiddle its way off the ledge.<br /><br />@nico, despite Ryan and Brady's protestations, it is possible to get corporate taxes down without the BAT. Just to 25%-ish, not 15-20%. How does the market respond when effective tax rates are already at 25%-ish anyway? And how does the market respond if we do get BAT, with trade backlash, USD volatility, and impossible-to-model earnings for several sectors? Maybe just a yawn and bid higher, setting up for a crash into the next recession. For the time being, the stock market does have the global growth cycle going for it.<br /><br />Some days or weeks ago I asked whether people thought Melenchon could join up with Hamon. And today, that is the big story. Apparently they're talking, also with Green, Jadot. If they combined and kept the sum of their polling percentages, they will be in the runoff against Le Pen, and risk of her winning will be MUCH higher than otherwise.<br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.com