tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6769429346124410504..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Bond vs. Goldfinger?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75759877918451096882010-07-01T01:10:10.321+01:002010-07-01T01:10:10.321+01:00Th negative asian data is a short term consequence...Th negative asian data is a short term consequence of the EU troubles. That is not what drove the markets yesterday though. The inability to pass finreg because of the senators death and the end of the ECB one year lending facility was the cause.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17932071545546824245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91696187519224967012010-06-30T08:56:58.048+01:002010-06-30T08:56:58.048+01:00Your reaching, TMM, thats twice within short time ...Your reaching, TMM, thats twice within short time you've thrown up that 10yr vs Gold chart,I'll throw my hat in the ring, though it's all been said and done around the traps no doubt.<br /><br />Definitley partial to Matt Sibleau theory of the " Non Neutuality of Liquidity".<br /><br />My thinking is none of it is going to return to housing in a hurry,<br /><br />Rates are very low compared to historical levels , this is one variable a lot of large firms make a base case of, so that brings one of my favourite principals into use.<br /><br />Market Value Threshold, every major segment has one , but where is it?, it's up to the individual to decide, Gold has one , where? in relation to Bonds, for the moment while QE is always in the air , BOTH will no doubt keep finding that mystical level.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11882601304613626929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65222393528216834662010-06-30T07:39:05.221+01:002010-06-30T07:39:05.221+01:00@Hans: according to me when someone talk about an ...@Hans: according to me when someone talk about an inflationary environment in this case I think that CBs will be obliged to print money, so essentually debase their currencies... it's the same thing than to tell that you haven't faith in fiat currencies!!!!Biofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16680482249524593609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60458253800588562912010-06-30T04:43:02.220+01:002010-06-30T04:43:02.220+01:00Team Macro Man has not done their research. I'...Team Macro Man has not done their research. I've read this blog for 3 years and now i feel compelled to make a post. Question - how does gold perform historically in a world of negative real interest rates. Currently, this is the environment we live in and one that we must answer to. The answer is that in periods where real yields are negative, Gold actually OUTPERFORMS the market, as it is a store of value and will always beat a negative-return savings account. Thus, the premise (which TMM alludes to) that ppl are buying gold on the notion that we'll have an inflationary environment is downright wrong. People are buying gold because of a lack of faith in FIAT CURRENCIES. That is, Gold has been around since the time of the Incas and Mayans and will always, as long as ppl believe in it, have a store of value. The EUR, USD, or JPY on the other hand will not and will eventually cease to exist at some point in time. Question - what was the currency called in Roman Empire time? Like Isner, point taken.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01104581862421875371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64313555111019856652010-06-30T02:00:54.188+01:002010-06-30T02:00:54.188+01:00@Leftback: SPX is not alone in flirting with an ma...@Leftback: SPX is not alone in flirting with an ma xover / 200dma... Crude for example is all chop around the 200dma, and the FTSE has gone every which way but north after bouncing off the same.<br /><br />@ everyone (given above): US 10y yields also punching new lows for the year, Gold looking choppy/toppy - not to mention the über bearish piece from RBS today...<br /><br />... I mean: the consensus seems to have the ranch on double dip; sell side are now making markets in tin hats; technicals also are bearish.<br /><br />I know MM is now in the land of the free (or brave? whatever), but it's practically the summer and the world cup / wimbledon is on... <br /><br />... Don't catch falling knives and all, but this is a thanksgiving-sized-Flamingo IMO.cpi65https://www.blogger.com/profile/05070237332212488846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31968252278706651562010-06-30T01:30:15.051+01:002010-06-30T01:30:15.051+01:00interesting to note the action in copper y'day...interesting to note the action in copper y'day... as noted "in this space" (as MM would say) that it mirrored the action of other classical risk assets for the first time in a whilecpi65https://www.blogger.com/profile/05070237332212488846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85876607355656709262010-06-29T23:40:01.230+01:002010-06-29T23:40:01.230+01:00Can you guys keep up this pace? The posting here ...Can you guys keep up this pace? The posting here has been fast and furious, and damn insightful.<br /><br />Thx Team Macro.scharfyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18309882331114382248noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23381035880055715782010-06-29T21:51:01.485+01:002010-06-29T21:51:01.485+01:00I was looking at Gold yesterday from a technical a...I was looking at Gold yesterday from a technical angle...<br /><br />http://hometraderuk.blogspot.com/2010/06/gold-at-key-juncture-possibly.html<br /><br />Nemo I stated 1200 or 1300 as the key levels, but in truth I bottled it slightly,, I think your 1230 and 1255ish level may be truer.AlphaMind101https://www.blogger.com/profile/17449192412477273337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72076365421483321302010-06-29T16:44:09.402+01:002010-06-29T16:44:09.402+01:00EURCHF is what happens when a hedge fund type gets...EURCHF is what happens when a hedge fund type gets to run a central bank.Martin Ghoulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16081823970007005988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60142826641201108392010-06-29T16:33:50.203+01:002010-06-29T16:33:50.203+01:00Price action in Gold seems to be some kind of batt...Price action in Gold seems to be some kind of battle of the bots.... feels like one hell of a game of chicken out there between 1230 and 1255ish. FWIW I'm cashing in my chips.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32888984180757584222010-06-29T16:26:47.937+01:002010-06-29T16:26:47.937+01:00Timely post as US 10y below 3% today but Goldfinge...Timely post as US 10y below 3% today but Goldfinger still defying gravity. Gold positions may be the only thing holding up the long gold/short Treasury hedge funds and prop desks out there.<br /><br />Would rather short gold than the long bond if we are turning Japanese, but don't feel like wandering into the path of either steamroller - outside of some short-term hedging and trading. <br /><br />Many of us are watching the imminent "Death Cross" of the 50 DMA and 200 DMA in SPY, which has often presaged episodes of intense selling. Once they start selling gold and TIPS again ... it will be no catching falling knives for a while.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20302257078557995412010-06-29T16:24:31.648+01:002010-06-29T16:24:31.648+01:00re: failing to catch a falling knife.
I thoroug...re: failing to catch a falling knife. <br /><br />I thoroughly appreciate that you stuck your neck out and made a call. You had good reasons for it and hopefully you will not dissuaded you from making more calls in the future. <br /><br />cheersTylerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265862490530746096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60698572549848575602010-06-29T16:12:26.373+01:002010-06-29T16:12:26.373+01:00It seems to me that to be long gold now is a step ...It seems to me that to be long gold now is a step too forward, and i assume that could be dangerous to be too ahead of the curve sometimes... and in particular it seems to me too much conflicting with flatter curve.<br /><br />CHF is going to create new pressures in Eastern Europe... i've read that Swiss CB has bought a lot of euro, so i think that a lot of their balance sheet is euro denominated, so how can eurchf to be a 1.32..any insight about this cross???Biofahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16680482249524593609noreply@blogger.com