tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6730204935740379465..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: It's delightful, it's de-lovely, it's de-riskingMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5152171917010786682008-10-13T11:10:00.000+01:002008-10-13T11:10:00.000+01:00Readers really needs this article in this right ti...Readers really needs this article in this right time of financial/trading crisis and wall street issues.<BR/><BR/>Andrew Abraham<BR/><A HREF="http://www.myinvestorsplace.com/" REL="nofollow">MyInvestorsPlace - trading, value, investing, forex, stock, market, technical, analysis, systems</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80389771808478514732008-10-12T09:55:00.000+01:002008-10-12T09:55:00.000+01:00so where does the 300 bil of cds exposure sit....i...so where does the 300 bil of cds exposure sit....<BR/><BR/>is this lights out?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54399106501588906612008-10-12T03:05:00.000+01:002008-10-12T03:05:00.000+01:00Dear MMHave been enjoying your posts as much as I ...Dear MM<BR/><BR/>Have been enjoying your posts as much as I have been enjoying these markets. For the first time in many months I am getting the feeling that the bottom of this crisis is a matter of days away. I have two very un-marketlike theories for believing that way.<BR/><BR/>The first is thanks to an astute colleague who pointed out to the Kubler-Ross model of dealing with grief(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model) a while back. We certainly have entered the fifth phase of Acceptance if the media and press is anything to go by.<BR/><BR/>And second relates to the solar activity. If you look at the nearly 11 year cycle of Solar activity, you'll find that Solar Minima have frighteningly coincided with market upheavals (1986-87, 1997, and now 2008). I can't remember exactly where I read it, but the current local minima should be set this week as far as sun spots go.<BR/><BR/>Your friends at BoK and RBI certainly used all those reserves this week as you exhorted them to do.<BR/><BR/>As for USD/MXN, I believe that the underlying cause was a rumour that foreign banks have been sitting on a swathe of MTMs with local corporates and that they'll be forced to bail out of Mexico if these corporates default. Banxico certainly thought otherwise!!<BR/><BR/>Regards.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78580304847785661792008-10-10T20:50:00.000+01:002008-10-10T20:50:00.000+01:00anonymous at 11:21 said it all.The market is just ...anonymous at 11:21 said it all.<BR/><BR/>The market is just waiting for the Obama election to start buying all over again.<BR/><BR/>"It's the politics, stupid"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3500579978641488372008-10-10T18:37:00.000+01:002008-10-10T18:37:00.000+01:00I hope you have a small cupI hope you have a small cupAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2132709130269585492008-10-10T18:32:00.000+01:002008-10-10T18:32:00.000+01:00Anonymous 3:45 PMYou may be right but at the momen...Anonymous 3:45 PM<BR/><BR/>You may be right but at the moment it works. I'm not in for longer than it takes emptying a cup of hot tea. Right now, UBS is still the world's largest fiduciary in terms of assets. But of course, nothing is set in stone.mikarskyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07451575916097736038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19539058202779565812008-10-10T16:59:00.000+01:002008-10-10T16:59:00.000+01:00LEH CDS is 9.75 cent per dollar. Do you receive th...LEH CDS is 9.75 cent per dollar. Do you receive the call from Mr. Margin today?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87020663420662874262008-10-10T16:30:00.001+01:002008-10-10T16:30:00.001+01:00*MEXICO HAS SOLD $6.4 BILLION IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE ...*MEXICO HAS SOLD $6.4 BILLION IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET TODAY<BR/><BR/>...and the price action in MXN was real and massive. Get out of EM.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68950290368332118352008-10-10T16:30:00.000+01:002008-10-10T16:30:00.000+01:00>>If this keeps up, you can charge people to...>>If this keeps up, you can charge people to read your blog.<BR/><BR/>If this keeps up, no one will be able to afford it!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41711136168280635362008-10-10T15:59:00.000+01:002008-10-10T15:59:00.000+01:00enjoy the golf Macro Man, you deserve it.enjoy the golf Macro Man, you deserve it.cproutyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450750646549540581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33249193089069392972008-10-10T15:45:00.000+01:002008-10-10T15:45:00.000+01:00Mikarsky - ISK x10 = CHFBanks too big for the coun...Mikarsky - <BR/><BR/>ISK x10 = CHF<BR/><BR/>Banks too big for the country to fix. <BR/>It used to trade as a safehaven/funding currency... but umm, 30x leverage for UBS and CSFB = CHF implosion. Probably my favorite short here. And i'd do it in options bc people are not seeing it. <BR/>JPY/CHF/USD all have great correlations. But, you need to be an independant thinker when mkts are down 27% in a month.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56329333872894203832008-10-10T14:42:00.000+01:002008-10-10T14:42:00.000+01:00Anonymous 1:42 PMNo illusion - available as cash t...Anonymous 1:42 PM<BR/><BR/>No illusion - available as cash to plan the weekend.mikarskyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07451575916097736038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37791581793032993472008-10-10T14:26:00.000+01:002008-10-10T14:26:00.000+01:00If this keeps up, you can charge people to read yo...If this keeps up, you can charge people to read your blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38226343325172562522008-10-10T13:53:00.000+01:002008-10-10T13:53:00.000+01:00I do not think I am good at 2nd-guessing where S&a...I do not think I am good at 2nd-guessing where S&P should be for it to hit the bottom. But the scenario I have in my mind is this: next summer/autumn will mark the bottom of the market.<BR/>In the short-term, Lehman settlment will be make or break. When former, markets will be in for a huge rally followed by wide range for the next month at least. Beginning of the next year, markets will start to fall again, hopefully less viciously.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69950477377978249582008-10-10T13:52:00.000+01:002008-10-10T13:52:00.000+01:00Best post ever. US markets look UGLY. Pres about t...Best post ever. US markets look UGLY. Pres about to speak but we are plagues by the lack of an administration (of either party) in the driver's seat right now. Brown seems to have been doing some things right although the UK press never seems to see it that way. All I really know is that this too shall pass.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47960591315547315922008-10-10T13:42:00.001+01:002008-10-10T13:42:00.001+01:00CHF - HA! What an illusionCHF - HA! What an illusionAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18120811095582568832008-10-10T13:42:00.000+01:002008-10-10T13:42:00.000+01:00Team 1250 seems like a lifetime ago.Team 1250 seems like a lifetime ago.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11602751454763254562008-10-10T13:33:00.000+01:002008-10-10T13:33:00.000+01:00The size of the credit squeeze is about USD 10 Tri...The size of the credit squeeze is about USD 10 Trillion, it's equivalent to 20% global GDP. So we will see SP500 earnings going to ZERO in the next couple of years or maybe during some quarter of 2009. In my view the bear market will end when SP500 reaches 500.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48374566391457243572008-10-10T13:02:00.000+01:002008-10-10T13:02:00.000+01:00Anyone has any idea how this Lehman event is going...Anyone has any idea how this Lehman event is going to turn out? Been searching and reading but my main conclusion is that insight is shallow, guesses widespread and outcome scenarios range from doomsday to a mere blip.<BR/><BR/>So anyone have a clue?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67335366040659472822008-10-10T12:32:00.000+01:002008-10-10T12:32:00.000+01:00Over the last several days, I've taken my profits ...Over the last several days, I've taken my profits on my puts/shorts and allocated the capital to volatile, risky equities such as DEO, PM, and KFT. As a result, I've gotten my face ripped off.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73874865732888094182008-10-10T12:15:00.000+01:002008-10-10T12:15:00.000+01:00I believe that there is going to be a similar sett...I believe that there is going to be a similar settlement process for WaMu. Does anybody have the details regarding the dates/times on that?BDA_GUYhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04553098858572330160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22266221104435883402008-10-10T12:11:00.000+01:002008-10-10T12:11:00.000+01:00MM"take investment decisions rather than render op...MM<BR/>"take investment decisions rather than render opinions"<BR/><BR/>I try to develop my own opinion from many views, and this blog and its sometimes contrary views is great. But at the end of the day, my roadmap stays. And I play the game along that roadmap. It didn't take a genius to figure out that short indexes and long gold, CHF/GBP, CHF/USD is all you need.<BR/><BR/>I agree that the panic in Europe is COMPLETELY unjustified, but you can't model people's fears.mikarskyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07451575916097736038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61756584188368809772008-10-10T11:53:00.000+01:002008-10-10T11:53:00.000+01:00SwissBoy will go to Paris for the weekend to spend...SwissBoy will go to Paris for the weekend to spend his Swissies, which have rapidly appreciated against the EUR. He's not the last man standing, but he just might be the last man shopping.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31517613111253093322008-10-10T11:51:00.000+01:002008-10-10T11:51:00.000+01:00There's an interesting argument that a big part of...There's an interesting argument that a big part of this huge downdraft is the hedge funds liquidating because the ibanks aren't funding them anymore. Floated on CNBC several times and makes sense.<BR/><BR/>FWIW for US market followers the entire collapse yesterday was a post 3pm one and seems to have followed a CEO's discussion of shutdowns from lack of CP credit. Apparently traders don't read but do watch CNBC and that brought home the seriousness of things :) ?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07898348310819841317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29518050479651546842008-10-10T11:47:00.000+01:002008-10-10T11:47:00.000+01:00Lehman auction timeline: US time Friday 10 October...Lehman auction timeline: US time<BR/> Friday 10 October<BR/> 9:00 Clients submit physical settlement requests<BR/> 9:45 Dealers enter inside market & physical settlement<BR/> 10:30 Inside mid market and open interest is published<BR/> 13:00 Deadline to enter limit orders<BR/> 14:00 Final auction price and trades published<BR/> 15 October: NOPS deadline at 4pm EST<BR/> 20 October: Settlement date for trades<BR/> 21 October: Cash settlement for CDS trades in the auction<BR/><BR/>"when in trouble, double" <BR/>i nearly did it with mi fresh eqt long. make it or brake it (probably the latter<BR/><BR/>sick traderAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com