tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6628966346734216829..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The binky remains hiddenMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-474530776307586772016-01-28T22:39:37.195+00:002016-01-28T22:39:37.195+00:00Synchrony Financial SYF massive trade before the c...Synchrony Financial SYF massive trade before the close as 50,000 February/Jan. 2017 $28 put calendar spreads opened at $2.50.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82946723634322553132016-01-28T22:32:51.710+00:002016-01-28T22:32:51.710+00:00A Bloomberg Alert about a Reuters story on a CNBC ...A Bloomberg Alert about a Reuters story on a CNBC report citing Dow Jones... all to say no Saudi 5pc crude cut deal Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70932427305790702512016-01-28T21:58:51.822+00:002016-01-28T21:58:51.822+00:00@anon 9:32
"...but AMZN as a market leader c...@anon 9:32<br /><br />"...but AMZN as a market leader certainly has some implication on traders' minds."<br /><br />What would that implication be, you think ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19442489690845127612016-01-28T21:32:47.373+00:002016-01-28T21:32:47.373+00:00@anon 9:26
And down 13% after hour for now.
I kn...@anon 9:26<br /><br />And down 13% after hour for now.<br /><br />I know day-day price change for a single name is not that significant for macro level, but AMZN as a market leader certainly has some implication on traders' minds.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62053128414560289112016-01-28T21:26:47.917+00:002016-01-28T21:26:47.917+00:00http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-01-27/di...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-01-27/diller-amazon-ceo-bezos-to-be-world-s-richest-person<br /><br />Great interview with Barry Diller regarding Amazon ... meanwhile, the stock is up almost 9% today.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31811472048825854722016-01-28T21:04:31.400+00:002016-01-28T21:04:31.400+00:00Wow, that is some cliff-jumping for Amazon.Wow, that is some cliff-jumping for Amazon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1569259220409583912016-01-28T20:45:39.320+00:002016-01-28T20:45:39.320+00:00@hipper,
What SA article are you referring to?
@...@hipper,<br /><br />What SA article are you referring to?<br /><br />@anon 3:48<br /><br />Thank you for the insightful paper.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87208927153399670392016-01-28T20:25:28.251+00:002016-01-28T20:25:28.251+00:00btw, sorry for sounding a little Jeremy Siegel the...btw, sorry for sounding a little Jeremy Siegel there. <br /><br />Not everyone has the same objectives. Not everyone needs to save for retirement. Some ppl are already in retirement. Some ppl have boat loads of money and just want to maintain..etc etc. <br /><br />Nasdaq stocks are just getting crushed (ex FB of course). Lots of ugly charts out there. TSLA at some major support. When it goes, it might take down a lot of high flyers as well. Biotech specifically today in the dog house, but also lots of cloud software firms that frankly have little to do with AAPL/Samsung issues. Financials down big since the begininng of the year, and really cheap, IMO. With oil bouncing maybe we are going to get the internal rotation I was looking for a month ago. But have to see IWM acting strong, which it aint<br /><br />We are in the trenches of earnings season and unlike Q3, no levitation yet. Thats not a good sign. The next few days will be crucialabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39511635653624120412016-01-28T20:16:28.333+00:002016-01-28T20:16:28.333+00:00Thanks Anon 3.48. Really helpful. CYS does look in...Thanks Anon 3.48. Really helpful. CYS does look interesting as well especially in terms of their successful preparation to the possibly largest and currently likeliest threat of all, continuous flattening (read the SA article too).hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69671589583919280002016-01-28T19:14:04.626+00:002016-01-28T19:14:04.626+00:00AC: Every move in the market is now a trap.AC: Every move in the market is now a trap.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2513856032751770422016-01-28T18:05:18.697+00:002016-01-28T18:05:18.697+00:00Eddie, on equities. I am no perma bull, though I d...Eddie, on equities. I am no perma bull, though I do have most of my savings in the market like most Joe Schmoes so color me biased<br /><br />Conceptually you invest in equities bc there is a risk premium to be earned. Just like credit has a risk premium or duration, or under reaction to events, all trading and investing should be rooted in some kind of identifiable risk premium. I think we can all agree that there is a thing called equity risk premium and historically it has outperformed almost all asset classes. <br /><br />As an investor its your job to monitor the risk premium. If it falls to low levels that dont compensate risk (ie valuations too high) then its your job to adjust your allocation. if you think you can predict economic/market cycles then, similarly you can do the same thing. But over the long term (10+) years, the equity risk premium is the highest source of returns. Now why do most investors not capture those returns, they over-trade, they invest in high valuation markets (dot com, Nikkei 90's etc) or concentrate in stocks/sectors/risk factors that they maybe dont understand. <br /><br />So while everyone else is pulling out cash and getting ready for the bear if you are looking long term, I dont see what else you can do. Remember selling out is very easy, getting back in is the hard part. I'm just trying to manage how much cash I want to have for lower levels<br /><br />DB is worrying. they are a sack of crap. I think they are in wind down mode but just dont want to spook the market and admit it. I dont know many ppl that work there but I've heard the morale is horrible.<br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9420089150731787152016-01-28T17:22:34.794+00:002016-01-28T17:22:34.794+00:00Left - I actually think the rate hike had a silver...Left - I actually think the rate hike had a silver lining in that it has proved that the logistics of maintaining the new corridor (0.25-0.50 bps) can work, and all the fears of the system grinding to a halt because reverse repos were destined to not be able to create a floor - funny how no one has mentioned that in the last few weeks - but of course now we are on to other redoubtable challenges, such as the zika virus, and I do agree that it may be a long wait before the next hike.<br /><br />As for fed credibility - I think the markets like certain outcomes from fed meetings and speeches more than others, but the problem is no one knows what the market will like, in advance - whether the folks creating the outcome are good ex-ante forecasters of the human condition may be less of an issue than people think. Its not like Bernanke had any credibility left after the sub-prime bust, but no one refused to buy stocks once he cranked up the press.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47350255558837645752016-01-28T17:15:05.697+00:002016-01-28T17:15:05.697+00:00Oh, please. Blanchflower's another one trick ...Oh, please. Blanchflower's another one trick pony, and a bit of a jerk to boot by all accounts.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70417479401968438432016-01-28T17:12:33.505+00:002016-01-28T17:12:33.505+00:00A few more fun facts echoing hipper's comments...A few more fun facts echoing hipper's comments.<br /><br />During the last two bear markets the Fed eased to no avail. Low rates and stable or rising equity prices do not necesserily coincide.<br /><br />Fed's Fisher kindly admitted that QE was all about front-loading an increase in asset prices. Wealth effect, etc., you know it. Now if equities are skyrocketing holding cash is incredibly painful. If you think more about the return of money than the return on money, though (to quote Leftback: you might outperform your benchmark this year by just holding cash) holding cash, even at 0%, becomes quite attractive.Eddienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44627878110763635552016-01-28T16:56:26.490+00:002016-01-28T16:56:26.490+00:00Another point of view on the Fed, from a seasoned,...Another point of view on the Fed, from a seasoned, intelligent and informed observer:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-december-hike-was-a-major-mistake-former-bank-of-england-official-says-2016-01-28?link=MW_home_latest_news" rel="nofollow"> December Hike A Mistake - Blanchflower </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71826424016889039332016-01-28T16:30:45.910+00:002016-01-28T16:30:45.910+00:00anon 3:48 - many thanks for that - very insightful...anon 3:48 - many thanks for that - very insightful. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69785298226527819352016-01-28T16:27:54.555+00:002016-01-28T16:27:54.555+00:00http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/why-q...http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/why-qe-was-the-worst-thing-in-the-worldCompulsory Readingnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78997160108608019122016-01-28T16:05:39.859+00:002016-01-28T16:05:39.859+00:00Oil is not out of downtrend yet: a chart.
https:/...Oil is not out of downtrend yet: a chart.<br /><br />https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/elliott_wave/gold/2016/01/26/eliottWaves_gold.html<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32880153536028353552016-01-28T15:54:37.222+00:002016-01-28T15:54:37.222+00:00"The STOXX Europe 600 Banks Index, grouping 4..."The STOXX Europe 600 Banks Index, grouping 46 lenders, dropped twice as<br />much as the region’s benchmark share index since late July. Banking stocks have fallen 14 percent in January alone, heading for their worst monthly performance since the depths of Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis in 2011. Deutsche Bank AG and Standard Chartered Plc are each down more than 40 percent since July."<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-27/europe-bank-rout-erases-434-billion-twice-greek-economy-chartAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34774697819354677942016-01-28T15:52:22.014+00:002016-01-28T15:52:22.014+00:00OPEC: No plans for production cuts
http://seeking...OPEC: No plans for production cuts<br /><br />http://seekingalpha.com/news/3061696-opec-plans-production-cutsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38248338297564746392016-01-28T15:48:02.689+00:002016-01-28T15:48:02.689+00:00Hipper...this one's for you...MReits
https://...Hipper...this one's for you...MReits<br /><br />https://www.dropbox.com/s/khoupp9iqovau6i/So%20here%20is%20what%20I%20think%20goes%20on%20in%20%20mortgage%20REITs.docx?dl=0<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18296016994134936942016-01-28T15:45:14.360+00:002016-01-28T15:45:14.360+00:00The confusion is high but I believe that no Saudi ...The confusion is high but I believe that no Saudi or Russian cuts for that matter will materialize - yet. No way. It would be foolish because getting to this point, where basically 100% of North America is underwater for the long term excluding hedges and exhausting existing wells - has caused so much pain and tears. Giving up now would throw all that hard work and what it has achieved away. More likely that "leaking" faux news just to play with those word picking/counting algos. I think we could go down to tickle the previous bottom, which I think is close to "long term value territory" in terms of supply, since so much supply will be underwater.<br /><br />I think CBs have become increasingly irrelevant, especially in terms whether they provide the binky again or not. It's now, I think, a more commonly believed theory that QE has not led to sustainable growth nor had any effect on inflation and as such the potential for additional Fed QE will be pointless other than for the financial market in the short term. I truly believe that that era is over and bad news will finally become bad and good becomes good. Now some pretty bad news rolling in and the industrial recession continues to go on.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12195043553021875222016-01-28T15:30:00.093+00:002016-01-28T15:30:00.093+00:00Watching $DB as a sign of systemic problems lurkin...Watching $DB as a sign of systemic problems lurking deep in the bowels of eurodollar/derivative portfolios a la 2008.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77374483491441631772016-01-28T15:14:48.171+00:002016-01-28T15:14:48.171+00:00DB ..... $140 to $17+ since $2007 .... below 2008...DB ..... $140 to $17+ since $2007 .... below 2008-2009 crisis levels ...5th largest bank in world. The blowup will be epic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60342828037260313662016-01-28T15:12:09.939+00:002016-01-28T15:12:09.939+00:00DB: next Lehman? Bear Stearns?DB: next Lehman? Bear Stearns?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com