tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6472337338481809035..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: QE Unwind and Charge of the HorsemenMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68147006736412932532017-10-16T08:36:23.357+01:002017-10-16T08:36:23.357+01:00There is over 300 million people in America , and ...There is over 300 million people in America , and there is over 50 million people in England,and you can drag a dozen million over from France. Find someone else. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8958325033700388972017-10-16T06:54:18.133+01:002017-10-16T06:54:18.133+01:00I'm in your corner IPA! I think it's set t...I'm in your corner IPA! I think it's set to do some work to the upside. Petronas just scrapped a 36B investment in Canada due to reg filing. Now they want to enter the US because they know the Americans will actually sell it. Seems like people are sleeping on this transition phase going on in the world. Some countries want to end fossil fuel usage completely. This is just awful leadership by poltiicans in these countries. They are not even close to a transition like this. So, in the meantime energy like nautral gas will be the go to. It's even a PR win for leaders because they can boast they are making progress. I'm all sorts of long-term bullish on comodities. Price points will be crucial because it seem the rest of the world is fucking broke man. P.S. weren't we told that coal was dead? Anyone been watching the demand for coal? Crazyyysdot54https://www.blogger.com/profile/15849714548471331301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77817803658864407232017-10-16T04:29:21.542+01:002017-10-16T04:29:21.542+01:00Shane Cameron, really glad to see someone else her...Shane Cameron, really glad to see someone else here with bullish view on nat gas.<br /><br />Crude is going to try and get above $52 and go for $55. XLE will get above $70 in that scenario.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12421049529601217222017-10-15T00:38:33.725+01:002017-10-15T00:38:33.725+01:00So that BLS CPI release was less than inspiring. R...So that BLS CPI release was less than inspiring. Real wages DOWN on a seasonally adjusted basis. Shawn good article, quick question. On the feds implied glidepath it lists an instaneous forward rate. Where is it on the graph exactly? Apologies if I'm missing it. A socail engagement last night is causing me some issues today, haha. <br /><br />Anyways, anyone have thoughts on curve inversion possibilites. (A crash would allow market prices to clear, worth it?) CB's went scorched earth policy on the rates market, we all know this. In doing so the price discovery mechanism doesn't exist as I write this. So, what is going on? I agree with the premise being made by some regarding foreign bond markets and how the so called "anchoring" to US rates travelling along the curve could be the culprit. Manipulation of term premia exists, no doubt, but I don't think the anchoring alone could do this for this long. IMO value added import/export paradaigm, GSC's, shadow liquidty, and modern currency invoicing/hedging techniques have played a larger role than many think. <br /><br />These off-shore entities that have popped have only facilitated the increase in global liquidity. However their role is (IMO) key. Example being the HKMA, PBOC, SAFE, BOJ group that now exists. Swaps, NDF's, dabbling in the spot market. If economic warfare had a kind of hall of fame for currency operators the names YANG Guozhong and PAN Gongsheng will be first in line to be inducted. They are willing to do anything they could challenge Nomura bank to greatest ever. <br />These off-shore facilities lend to state linked dealers, brokerages, SPV, and corporations who in turn help alleviate local concerns about currency risk, costs, $ shortages, etc. (alleviates $ shortages and acts as cap controls) These entities also provide excess dollar reserve acces to banks, SEOs, SWF'S, etc. <br /><br />I'm at a bit of a loss to even describe capital marekts right now. It's fun to be challenged like this, but when older CFA's (level 2 for me) say that the CFA they took is completely irreevant now. "They should have trained us on funding and wholesale market, central banks, and market structure." Not sure if anyone else knows a few CFA's, but they are proud as fuck (worth it or not) and love that alphabet soup, I was kinda shocked. Anyways, looking at positions in commodities, Equities, looking to get exposure to healthy Italian banks, NGX7, $DXY, ALL long positions. Not sure about timing, but after the 19th congress I think China faces stiff headwinds. So I think they will take a chance to devalue. sdot54https://www.blogger.com/profile/15849714548471331301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41466062615192669252017-10-13T22:34:19.512+01:002017-10-13T22:34:19.512+01:00i agree on the repatriation issue--it is a probabi...i agree on the repatriation issue--it is a probability (of tax reform passage) of another probability (the applied tax rate) of a derivative (how much $ is out there) of another derivative (how much would be brought back). Call your local swap spread trader for details. <br /><br />haven't dug into the CPI figures but amazing that the curve just continues to flatten. It's as if the market is saying, "the fed will insist on a policy mistake, and inflation will be like this forever." Could be, but maybe they'll just take Evans' advice and kick the can down the road. <br /><br />2009 was an amazing time to manage money. I remember in January or February of that year it seemed really, really likely the feds were going to nationalize Citi and BofA and clean house. If you wanted to take the other side of that, yeah, congrats I guess...after the market bottomed in March and Bernanke claimed he saw "green shoots", there was a decision to make on whether or not to buy into the hype--and I agree with Macro Tourist's post yesterday that mentioned it was the massive stimulus from China that got the ball rolling again. Without that, commodity prices may have stayed in the gutter leaving a number of countries precariously close to sovereign default. <br /><br />Yet it was also a time when ever decision felt like a career threatening one. Pick your poison, i guess.EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12846222420093087302017-10-13T15:17:28.811+01:002017-10-13T15:17:28.811+01:00Shawn, thank you for reminding us of those turbule...Shawn, thank you for reminding us of those turbulent times. Seems like people's memory gets shorter with every crisis. I also ran to the bank, stopped putting on new positions, covered some shorts and withdrew some money because I did not know if the funds in my trading accounts would become inaccessible. It's funny how for some of us the instincts kick in and we start thinking clearly. In hindsight, I may have panicked and should have shorted more. I guess you could say I left the party early. But those who will tell you they sold the top and bought the bottom may also be the ones who never put any significant money on those actual trades.<br /><br />Looks like a few more guests may be arriving at the ball this evening, courtesy of CPI miss.<br /><br />One last thing... There is a good amount of smart people who are now asking how large the repatriation of overseas cash stash would be. What took so long? I've seen several estimates and I am sure the number will continue to fluctuate a bit. One thing is for sure - it is far less than anyone thought.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35573963048963502862017-10-13T09:14:45.367+01:002017-10-13T09:14:45.367+01:00The trading house seed investor will keep coming b...The trading house seed investor will keep coming back for more because his kids have got no brains. All walks of life can make dollar trading foreign exchange. Yeah, you made it to the top with that team of traders. I'll be in South East Asia putting together a trading model all alone to trade this market all the way down to bottom when that day comes. Happy to be broke , alone, and allowed to find winners my way.I'm going to get up every morning and go for lovely swim at the beach , then have a lovely breakfast without any contactable means of anyone finding me. Then I'll put it all together for the rest of the day, every day. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com