tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6362342749760295821..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: We Interrupt Normal Programming for....Vol!Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger74125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53585560071643218312018-02-08T14:57:53.858+00:002018-02-08T14:57:53.858+00:00Little Lefty, if you could just hand over what Ker...Little Lefty, if you could just hand over what Kerry left me , and I'll be on my way. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34193896245881912622018-02-08T14:05:21.542+00:002018-02-08T14:05:21.542+00:00Lefty, I will get whats owned , and then ((they)) ...Lefty, I will get whats owned , and then ((they)) won't see me for dust. I can trade this shit and live happily in a grass hut beside a South East Asian beach. I've seen enough. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89468987564739580162018-02-08T13:55:28.947+00:002018-02-08T13:55:28.947+00:00I have often wondered if Amps was a reincarnation ...I have often wondered if Amps was a reincarnation of HST. Absinthe + mescaline + LSD = psychedelic financial commentary.<br /><br />Looks like Carney is wearing the Hawk costume again, LOL. Jawboning has long been the tool of choice for the BoE in order to nudge inflation around.<br /><br />Crude oil is slightly lower again today, let's keep an eye on that one. A few weeks of lower oil would nip the inflation scare in the bud fairly quickly. More important US inflation driver than the tiny hourly wage increases (with hours worked lower!).Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69246540891389356622018-02-08T13:24:37.020+00:002018-02-08T13:24:37.020+00:00you are the Quincy Jones/Tom Waits mix of financia...you are the Quincy Jones/Tom Waits mix of financial blogs<br /><br />add two drops of HSThompson to thatNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1844019729222310402018-02-08T12:46:25.571+00:002018-02-08T12:46:25.571+00:00No bastard, is going to tell me where I am going t...No bastard, is going to tell me where I am going the next 15 years. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76683328686843845752018-02-08T12:44:41.430+00:002018-02-08T12:44:41.430+00:00Nico, no its not funny. Fifteen years of wishing t...Nico, no its not funny. Fifteen years of wishing thinking is not funny!<br />What is funny , is I got out of it without kids and a wife ( or failed marriage, who knows). <br />Can you imagine having kids half grown up and a wife that is conditioned to that lifestyle , and having to drag them through this ((market)) correction. Sorry, but you just gave me the heads ((up)). Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20618784179029886752018-02-08T12:22:38.939+00:002018-02-08T12:22:38.939+00:00lmao Amps !!lmao Amps !!Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65763067148401663432018-02-08T12:08:03.159+00:002018-02-08T12:08:03.159+00:00Nico, the French House bond underwriter....
Bond...Nico, the French House bond underwriter....<br /><br /><br />Bond Covenant as follows:<br /><br />To the holder of this inheritance you are given the following amount as payment for 15 years of wishful thinking. In accordance to previous worldly phenomena's before you receiving your final coupon and maturation value of bond , you are entitled to keep the lot. As supermodels and actresses have two legs and two arms to be able to go out into the world and get their own.<br />In accordance to article 88 of the Nuremberg convention you are now a free man. <br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32679769651870294602018-02-08T11:39:55.630+00:002018-02-08T11:39:55.630+00:00"Peak insanity was reached on November 16th w..."Peak insanity was reached on November 16th when French BBB issuer Veolia issued:<br /><br />500 million <br />3-year EUR bond <br />maturity November 2020 <br />with a negative yield of -0.026 %"<br /><br />When the ((French)) House was underwriting this bond, Nico. I was on an island somewhere in South East Asia enjoying my inheritance for a my time at the desk that was ridiculous and beyond the blue 7 seas impossible. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16251754962783818392018-02-08T11:30:11.429+00:002018-02-08T11:30:11.429+00:00yes Eddie i forgot the most obvious last November ...yes Eddie i forgot the most obvious last November i wrote in another place that European corporate bonds was the next big short (the easiest punt)(something much easier to trade than the VIX world) to the point that it had reached the same no-brainer, dead end compression than 2007 CDOs<br /><br />Peak insanity was reached on November 16th when French BBB issuer Veolia issued:<br /><br />500 million <br />3-year EUR bond <br />maturity November 2020 <br />with a negative yield of -0.026 %<br /><br />No typo here, it had never happened before. Forget industrial risk, forget any risk at all in fact, PAY those people to give them your money.<br /><br />funny thing being French is that Veolia is a spin off of bankrupt Vivendi (NYSE code 'V' lol) the very symbol of 2000 internet blind greedy agressive (un)tactical reconversion model that led to the most spectacular crash for a French big stock in 2000. The Messier era is still remembered in France. In a way it sucked because all them old school French patrons could go 'i told you so' on the new brash, youngblood risktaking mentality that was only short lived.<br /><br />the uneasy feeling prevailing in Europe corporate yield has to be the one reason capping equities all this time (strongish EURUSD does not help much either)Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64044541680987978552018-02-08T11:10:47.907+00:002018-02-08T11:10:47.907+00:00There are variety of things that might go wrong, b...There are variety of things that might go wrong, but I'll stick with risk spreads.That would obviously include hitherto very popular investments in High Yields/ Junk. Which is another good reason to have slowly reduced and moved remaining allocation to short maturities where value could be found. In truth not much of that in the last year.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85782456265662281692018-02-08T10:33:54.215+00:002018-02-08T10:33:54.215+00:00"TRADE WAR" you say Nico. Not a chance ,..."TRADE WAR" you say Nico. Not a chance , ((they)) use other traders. Let'em get ((Paris and tinkerbell)) to trade their gold index futures. Clowns the lot of'em. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77938381889286979622018-02-08T09:49:09.458+00:002018-02-08T09:49:09.458+00:00@Nico: I would add (corporate) bond ETFs to your l...@Nico: I would add (corporate) bond ETFs to your list of worries. Providing a liquid wrapper for a rather less liquid underlying is a precursor that interesting things will happen imo (similar to combining leverage and stupidity).Eddiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18011114950206155472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5303737424222855272018-02-08T08:29:42.716+00:002018-02-08T08:29:42.716+00:00Deja Vu by Nico,we will see if you are right this ...Deja Vu by Nico,we will see if you are right this time...I do not think so, not yet anyway.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15465583809802386246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54151176744312854742018-02-08T01:54:41.016+00:002018-02-08T01:54:41.016+00:00PSS: sorry for posting so much but much like Skr l...PSS: sorry for posting so much but much like Skr lamented the lack of attention on gold tape, i have to say all the technicalities mentioned in comments those last days overshadow the one big elephant in the room of a headwind to global economy and risk assets appreciation:<br /><br />TRADE WAR<br /><br />the America first mantra will only accelerate once the US are hit by financial difficulties, no matter how many times Trump tweets that 'the stock markets are wrong, they should cheer the $22t debt expanding, nevermind if i called it a folly at $20t when interviewing for this job"Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12588332358512094912018-02-08T01:42:08.450+00:002018-02-08T01:42:08.450+00:00PS: Buystocks for all your bad manners you are pla...PS: Buystocks for all your bad manners you are plagued with, you are the symbolic mascot of the QE/Trump rally era. So your own blindness is a tell, because it is the very right measure of market sentiment we need here in our board. I will only think of covering my short the day that your spirit is broken. At the same time, i will not feel good if you lose money. So try to educate yourself here. We are doing an intervention. You are a junkie and you need help. good luckNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84820788389272940362018-02-08T01:38:12.490+00:002018-02-08T01:38:12.490+00:00Well those last years i have seen more disco bounc...Well those last years i have seen more disco bounces that this one that has all the feel of a dead cat. This market feels broken. The VIX folly has been exposed and will cascade further. From dip buyers to rip sellers. After all whoever CSFB hedged its short vol book with, will now please stand up and cover their ass.<br /><br />What other bloated financial engineering niche will explode next? I have <br /><br />- Loan ETFs in mind. <br />- And car loan CDOs. <br />- And cocos bonds. <br />- And student loan not far behind. <br /><br />But second and foremost to volatility, we have high yield. Mauldin:<br /><br />"I think ultimately the collapse in high-yield will precipitate “the Big One.” You just can’t understand how much in high-yield bonds has been sold, how poorly the covenants are managed, and how badly investors are going to get screwed.<br /><br />You watched this last week as the VIX fell out of bed. I am telling you that what is going to happen in the high-yield market is going to be more – much more – of the same. It’s going to seemingly fall out overnight. The bids are going to disappear, and high-yield bonds are going to be sold to what are essentially distressed-debt funds at distressed-debt prices.<br /><br />Further, as we get into late 2018 and then into 2019 (not to mention 2020), the amount of high-yield debt that has to be “rolled over” becomes significant. And it is obviously going to have to be rolled over at higher interest rates. "<br /><br />He also noted that among the yield hungry holders of SVXY Harvard management came out. So really, even HARVARD was shorting volatllity. Them too listened to Dalio and the meltup idiots too much. This system is really screwed when even the brightest one threw safety down the toilet.<br /><br />If you do not take profits on that short lived bounce after such a dire warning by le Market there will be noone to blame but yourself. A new batch of naked swimmers will wash ashore at next low tide (a befitting metaphor seeing the magnitude of Indian ocean tide here in <br /> East Africa).<br /><br />I am reshorting Europe(stoxx) first thing at auction and will watch the show. Deutsche bank will not survive the next bear leg, and will take a couple of counterparts with them. We're talking trillions of OTC derivatives notional here.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54677723673855345222018-02-07T21:17:52.881+00:002018-02-07T21:17:52.881+00:00I hear you broh! Just trying to help out. Go out a...I hear you broh! Just trying to help out. Go out and enjoy yourself. Skrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26089760476512398342018-02-07T21:11:01.757+00:002018-02-07T21:11:01.757+00:00@Skr, and not just that...
Spent most of the day ...@Skr, and not just that...<br /><br />Spent most of the day in front of the mirror. I got no answers. SOB would not talk.<br /><br />Don't laugh. You trade for living? Watch "Trader". <br /><br />@LB, we do the best we can to identify as many trading opps as we can and then we pull the trigger when we can on what we can. BUT, we can't be in ALL trades ALL the time.<br /><br />With these words, I leave you, dear friends, and this wonderful trading fantasy land. Time to regain my focus.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40936585537148743022018-02-07T20:59:40.571+00:002018-02-07T20:59:40.571+00:00I am a little surprised at some of the more promin...I am a little surprised at some of the more prominent technical posters missing the H&S on the daily Gold chart. Skrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24792994932853659762018-02-07T18:17:49.886+00:002018-02-07T18:17:49.886+00:00The dollar is "surprisingly" firm today....The dollar is "surprisingly" firm today. A lot of us had been pointing at $1.25 as a line in the sand for EURUSD, as the ECB has no wish to see a strong €, or for bunds to blow out and rip its balance sheet to shreds. We have become used to Death of the Dollar headlines in the media, and when they accumulate, Bucky almost always rises like Lazarus. <br /><br />A prolonged reincarnation for the greenback is almost always negative for the commodity complex and associated FX. AUDUSD looks soft AUDJPY is having a horrible day, this is an FX proxy for China's real economic temperature and commodity demand (China GDP being fake). CADUSD is also flaccid, Caddy often serves an indicator of the outlook for oil and lumber prices. LO and behold, crude is surprisingly weak, down 3% on the day. <br /><br />Is this a turn in the dynamics of inflation expectations? The two main drivers of US inflation have now turned around in the disinflationary direction. If this continues, then the reflation trade will be over and the US yield curve is going to flatten again. We are reminded of other episodes of Faux-Flation, especially the Green Shoots period of 2010, when US10y tagged 4% in the Spring before falling >100 bps. That Spring saw several massively crowded trades, especially short Treasuries.<br /><br />Extremes in speculator positioning may soon lead these currently very crowded trades to de-lever:<br /><br />1) Short dollar trade.<br />2) Long crude trade.<br />3) Short UST trade.<br />4) Long EMs trade?<br />5) Short Eurodollars.<br /><br />I think we can safely say that "short vol" has had a good clear-out and we are not going to have to worry about that one.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63013627567226823242018-02-07T17:04:21.751+00:002018-02-07T17:04:21.751+00:00Wont be long until rising UST yields are back in t...Wont be long until rising UST yields are back in the headlines. Days, hours?Belektronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18315498538605087596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49664150208373208602018-02-07T16:58:10.432+00:002018-02-07T16:58:10.432+00:00More bleeding down for the VIX and drifting up for...More bleeding down for the VIX and drifting up for the Spoos lie ahead of us into expiration.<br /><br />The fantastic trade of the year for LB and Unknown comes at the expense of LJM partners of Chicago, among others who had set up shop apparently exclusively shorting vol:<br /><br />https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-06/chicago-vol-selling-fund-blows-down-more-50-after-significant-losses<br /><br />The genius behind the strategy explains the complexity for us simpletons:<br /><br />https://vimeo.com/117314441<br /><br />There are so many people like this in finance now. Some "quant" background, but limited real world market experience. Well, this guy now has additional experience to add to his resumé.<br /><br />In other news, WTI looks like it is going to roll over (again) on US production spike. The ECB's Nowotny has just labeled Mnuchin a currency manipulator. DB is trading like GE - both of them are loaded with accounting issues and bad assets. There are more problems ahead, but for now, let the Muppet Bounce continue, and you know "Buy Stocks".<br /><br />Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84868297078624500402018-02-07T15:53:38.198+00:002018-02-07T15:53:38.198+00:00Dow futures are only up +600pts off the overnight ...Dow futures are only up +600pts off the overnight lows (BTFD). The cash index barely up +1% in an hour - frankly I feel hard done by :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82261795091828211842018-02-07T13:25:03.406+00:002018-02-07T13:25:03.406+00:00well, bitcoiners are cheerfully on hodl yet again ...well, bitcoiners are cheerfully on hodl yet again todayAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15465583809802386246noreply@blogger.com