tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6334377480566485614..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: More On ChinaMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61599046515078742302010-01-22T10:54:29.388+00:002010-01-22T10:54:29.388+00:00agree, RBA K was very hawkish. he was asked if the...agree, RBA K was very hawkish. he was asked if there was any concern about overtightening, and he replied that they were more worried about inflation.Matt Johnsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02230563615107959319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11840729338176526532010-01-22T09:37:37.231+00:002010-01-22T09:37:37.231+00:00" I like Singapore (It has been 10 years I am..." I like Singapore (It has been 10 years I am living there), "<br /><br />Certainly has had an effect on your English LOLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90414112916820935452010-01-22T08:55:46.221+00:002010-01-22T08:55:46.221+00:00Love it!Love it!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9972979173648777332010-01-22T08:50:19.013+00:002010-01-22T08:50:19.013+00:00Moronstrocity: A montrous atrocity committed by a ...Moronstrocity: A montrous atrocity committed by a moron?Cortexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71323406883403382742010-01-22T03:16:47.605+00:002010-01-22T03:16:47.605+00:00Gee how simple is that?
No need to ban prop trad...Gee how simple is that? <br />No need to ban prop trading - just make them do it with their own money instead of the taxpayers :)<br />Maybe I'm having a blonde moment.Nicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84507385034965911962010-01-22T03:08:59.371+00:002010-01-22T03:08:59.371+00:00Nemo, the whole issue is not about banning prop tr...Nemo, the whole issue is not about banning prop trading, it is banning prop trading backed by financing from the Central Bank. I like Singapore (It has been 10 years I am living there), and it has certainly a future as a pure private banking center (the way the Swiss were doing before being caught up by investment banking hubris), but if you think that MAS will guarantee 20 bln of Goldman Sachs issuance like the FDIC is doing, you are dreaming. The Icelanders, Swiss and maybe even the Brits are realizing that having a banking sector balance sheet many times the size of GDP is a risky proposition. If finance ever moves out from the US/UK sphere, the only place with significant financial strength is China, but I am not sure it will be that receptive to investment bankers's sweet talk, at least for the foreseeable future.Charleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15664983104693516908noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45319856679673535182010-01-22T00:20:01.392+00:002010-01-22T00:20:01.392+00:00There is a book about the Rothschild banking dynas...There is a book about the Rothschild banking dynasty -- don't remember the name at the moment.<br /><br />The Rothschild family (various generations) had tremendous connections / friendships with high government officials throughout Europe.<br /><br />In each instance, the Rothschild family made money, most other people lost money, and the government in question collapsed<br /><br />Goldman Sachs might is doing to the US and UK what the Rothschild's did to Europe's monarchiesWillynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83864061851846225442010-01-21T23:54:19.349+00:002010-01-21T23:54:19.349+00:00I am not really an Obama fan, but restoring capita...I am not really an Obama fan, but restoring capitalism to banking (assuming he does it, and this isn't just more talk to protect the status quo) is the first good idea I have heard out of him.<br /><br />Zombie banks, bailing out the stupid, and rewarding people based on their government contacts is hardly the stuff that made finance -- and it is obviously a big part of what brought it down.<br /><br />Restoring a system where people who take "smart" risk get rewarded is something those of us in Europe and the US should be encouraging.<br /><br />If we continue down this path of government by Goldman Sachs, for Goldman Sachs and of Goldman Sachs -- then Nemo will be right.Garynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33773500425976810722010-01-21T22:58:46.136+00:002010-01-21T22:58:46.136+00:00Game over kids. You're all moving to asia soon...Game over kids. You're all moving to asia soon enough.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20338335587698663572010-01-21T22:53:13.452+00:002010-01-21T22:53:13.452+00:00http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8473590.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8473590.stmNicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52861361967747781652010-01-21T22:52:26.033+00:002010-01-21T22:52:26.033+00:00Viz the possibility of all the prop trading being ...Viz the possibility of all the prop trading being done out of foreign subs, how realistic is this? I don't understand the finer points of tax avoidance to know whether this is feasible. Because if so, I'm going to get even longer Singapore real estate.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66203275576682992562010-01-21T22:52:09.139+00:002010-01-21T22:52:09.139+00:00Seems its not just Obama who wants to put limits o...Seems its not just Obama who wants to put limits on banks prop trading and "risky" activities - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8473590.stmNicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89494876940098804662010-01-21T22:33:22.254+00:002010-01-21T22:33:22.254+00:00"I'd like to know who owns the base metal..."I'd like to know who owns the base metals stockpiles"<br /><br />We do. Want to buy some copper?Chinese pig farmersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36505387997178253542010-01-21T22:26:04.912+00:002010-01-21T22:26:04.912+00:00I'd like to know who owns the base metals stoc...I'd like to know who owns the base metals stockpiles. Since commodity investment is a such a major theme lately, are the LME stockpiles actually held by various investment funds? How large are the stockpiles/investments that LME doesn't record? Who held the stockpiles in the old days, when nobody "invested" in commodities?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60084823494133573062010-01-21T22:11:17.938+00:002010-01-21T22:11:17.938+00:00Hi MM.
Kraehe was very, very hawkish IMO. It was ...Hi MM.<br /><br />Kraehe was very, very hawkish IMO. It was more like "we are almost at neutral, but here's a bunch of reasons why we need to be in restrictive territory..."<br /><br />Harry.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37739031858421730712010-01-21T18:57:26.128+00:002010-01-21T18:57:26.128+00:00The seizure of liquidity won't have any effect...The seizure of liquidity won't have any effect on FNMA / FHLMC / GNMA (aka the Treasury, aka the taxpayers). They are the only ones actually lending mortgage money now.<br /><br />The seizure also won't effect small businesses and most non-financial S&P companies -- they aren't allowed to borrow at imaginary Fed rates anyway.<br /><br />The seizure will effect the big banks that, in reality, all failed last year (or before). These things have been on taxpayer life support since.<br /><br />GM is not an on going entity on its own, and neither are the big banks.<br /><br />Instead of allowing Ernst Stravo Blofeld (or whatever super villian you think Paulson was) to bail out his friends at taxpayer expense -- the government should have seized the failed banks and allowed them to fail "gracefully" ... the same thing that was done in the 1980s with S&Ls using REFCO. Protect the depositors, and allow failed banks to fail. Let capitalism work -- reallocate money away from bad management to good management.<br /><br />That's what should have happened, and if we are ever going to have a real economic recovery, that's what still needs to happen.<br /><br />There will be some pain -- no one ever promised life would be or should be painless. The best things in life always involve some sacrifice. After the pain, the economy will grow again.<br /><br />All Paulson / Geithner did was postpone the pain AND postpone the recovery.Garynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89697048741285412182010-01-21T18:33:55.756+00:002010-01-21T18:33:55.756+00:00I believe the technical term is "moronificati...I believe the technical term is "moronification."<br /><br />Obama knows not what he does. I wonder how the seizure of liquidity will work out for everyone.<br /><br />I agree on the dollar MM but it assumes that no one will follow suit, and that the dollar can go down with stocks and commodities. I'm waiting for some weakness to reload.Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76398416778134587422010-01-21T18:26:42.234+00:002010-01-21T18:26:42.234+00:00MM - I have been ranting about political risk now ...MM - I have been ranting about political risk now for months (at least two on this blog that I remember)<br /><br />The surprising thing about Obama's "no prop trading" proposal is that bankers are actually surprised<br /><br />How hopelessly out of touch was Obama that he thought trillion dollar deficits for political spending wasn't going to bite him in the rear?<br /><br />And how hopelessly out of touch are Congress's puppeteers on Wall Street that they profess to doing God's work?<br /><br />And their business plan is just the definition of wishful thinking: borrow from taxpayers at 0% and lend taxpayer money back to them at 6-7%. If somehow the banks still manage to lose money, the taxpayers will be expected to bail the banks out at no cost to the banks.<br /><br />How out of touch with reality is Wall Street? About as much as their off-the-book employees in Congress, at the Treasury and at the Fed.<br /><br />Of course there will be limits on bank prop trading. Its absurd to think otherwise.<br /><br />Only a couple decades ago, prop trading was done by partnerships. The partners watched risk like hawks because their own wealth was on the line.<br /><br />Someone else takes all the risk, but traders get all the upside? A bunch of cowards. If you take the risk, you deserve the reward. If someone else takes the risk, they get the reward. That's called capitalism<br /><br />Today's big banks are going to go away -- they have no business model (robbing the taxpayer doesn't count) and they forgot why they exist. None of the big banks have a competitive advantage (a reason for being) -- every product you can get from Citi / Goldman / BofA/ RBS / Deutche you can get from at least ten other places. Market liquidity is being provided by the Fed, not the insolvent banks.<br /><br />This happened back in the early 1970s, when Jack White & Co, EF Hutton, and others ruled the street. And this time won't be different.<br /><br />Smaller firms that actually add value will emerge as yesterday's Goliaths collapse-- its just going to take a few yearsGarynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77731976981965368722010-01-21T18:26:07.350+00:002010-01-21T18:26:07.350+00:00“It will be a bit bizarre if the RBS/CS/DB guys ca...“It will be a bit bizarre if the RBS/CS/DB guys can trade US equities over here but the US banks can't”. <br /><br />. . . . . . <br /><br />Perhaps the U.S. banks could route the trading through foreign subsidiaries. <br /><br />I’m sure a loophole will crop up before long.DLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34507603119420601792010-01-21T18:16:30.541+00:002010-01-21T18:16:30.541+00:00It will be a bit bizarre if the RBS/CS/DB guys can...It will be a bit bizarre if the RBS/CS/DB guys can trade US equities over here but the US banks can't. As for tradable credit instruments, commodities, derivatives, interest-rate swaps, WTF? There better be some clarity on this, or we will see The Unwind to End All Unwinds.<br /><br />Maybe it rains bankers tomorrow, and then we have a clarification. On Sunday night. Just for fun.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25774908553698787362010-01-21T18:05:43.511+00:002010-01-21T18:05:43.511+00:00moronocitymoronocityAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79129000705429187912010-01-21T17:46:58.914+00:002010-01-21T17:46:58.914+00:00“Clarification next week - after a little mini-pan...“Clarification next week - after a little mini-panic...?”<br /><br />.......<br /><br />Yeah, that’s what I’m thinking. The political guys in the White House are running this thing right now.DLhttp://dl0009.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42089708369899411182010-01-21T17:40:10.926+00:002010-01-21T17:40:10.926+00:00The banks have poisoned the political debate with ...The banks have poisoned the political debate with their flagrant insouciance, and by so doing, shot themselves in the foot. Since moral suasion clearly isn't getting the job done, governments are increasingly going to turn to the 2x4...hence banker tax, prop bans and other ASBO-type measures...I'm surprised anyone is surprised.VandalsStoleMyHandlenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34656826934527445842010-01-21T17:27:06.296+00:002010-01-21T17:27:06.296+00:00Moronicness? Moronity? Moronishness?
LB is shocke...Moronicness? Moronity? Moronishness?<br /><br />LB is shocked at an overall ban on prop trading, but had expected language about position size limits. Decreased market liquidity is not exactly a good thing, right? Also, have they really thought this through, I mean what about bond trading, for heaven's sake? Not quite clear where the B-D operations fit into this.<br /><br />Clarification next week - after a little mini-panic...?leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48476703204893632442010-01-21T17:26:55.053+00:002010-01-21T17:26:55.053+00:00What is up with EUD?What is up with EUD?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com