tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6327269178182525808..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Stepping In Front of the SteamrollerMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15831214868684264552008-12-18T19:03:00.000+00:002008-12-18T19:03:00.000+00:00Didn't Lo model CTA's as long vol, long straddles ...Didn't Lo model CTA's as long vol, long straddles position?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05819776376553445235noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61064225908818249102008-12-18T10:35:00.000+00:002008-12-18T10:35:00.000+00:00What in the world would stop a US investment bank ...What in the world would stop a US investment bank with access to free FED credit from using that facility to break the USD the way Soros did to the GBP? <BR/><BR/>It's not like there is any risk - if the trade goes bad, the FED will buy it to "stabilise the financial system"!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19645668773183972032008-12-18T02:46:00.000+00:002008-12-18T02:46:00.000+00:00If investors looking for higher yields + price app...If investors looking for higher yields + price appreciation they buy Bunds and they're sold in EUR.<BR/><BR/>Thin markets or not if enough stops are triggered on the way up, momentum builds and further up it goes.<BR/><BR/>T.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19715399263413687132008-12-17T22:18:00.000+00:002008-12-17T22:18:00.000+00:00would be good to post an update of the US money su...would be good to post an update of the US money supply vs EU when you get it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46682272093702271372008-12-17T21:43:00.000+00:002008-12-17T21:43:00.000+00:00Looking at crncy basketUSDPLN, USDTRY, USDHUF, USD...Looking at crncy basket<BR/>USDPLN, USDTRY, USDHUF, USDZAR, the strongest is HUF (sic), which makes sense only assuming a short squeeze, I thing (almost) all beeing long USDHUF.<BR/><BR/>FMFamily Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16757562505353144887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34462497049117966252008-12-17T21:31:00.000+00:002008-12-17T21:31:00.000+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.Family Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16757562505353144887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91534932287320620192008-12-17T16:26:00.000+00:002008-12-17T16:26:00.000+00:00Thanks to MM and all here...Maybe that helps:https...Thanks to MM and all here...<BR/><BR/>Maybe that helps:<BR/>https://gm.bankofny.com/Research/MorningUpdate/Article.aspx?Type=0&ContentManagerID=7876<BR/><BR/>http://www.chinastakes.com/BlogOneArticle.aspx?id=22&&AID=904<BR/><BR/>FMFamily Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16757562505353144887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2352185715661225322008-12-17T16:12:00.000+00:002008-12-17T16:12:00.000+00:00The difference is that the Fed has now said moneta...The difference is that the Fed has now said monetary policy is no longer the hope. That's like taking your chips and pushing them into the center and that is a big thing. <BR/><BR/>Second point, this action puts tremendous pressure on the new President and Congress to act boldly, to act in Star Trek terms and to boldly go where no government has gone before. That is also big.jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372999828751252978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76039453915562089752008-12-17T15:28:00.000+00:002008-12-17T15:28:00.000+00:00USD crushed, bull flattening in the bonds, oil lag...USD crushed, bull flattening in the bonds, oil lagging with putin and hugo on the offer (and getting whacked on the EURUSD). Are these just holiday markets or are some new market participants making their presence known in our markets? If the latter, then adjusting tactics and strategy to these types in 2009 will be much more difficult than i anticipatedAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78530773956112438962008-12-17T15:12:00.000+00:002008-12-17T15:12:00.000+00:00Wow, what a match!! US Treasury and Fed vs. Japane...Wow, what a match!! US Treasury and Fed vs. Japanese Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan, both teams desperately aiming at avoiding their respective economies a sharp disinflation, or worse a deflation. Will MoF/BoJ finally be forced to intervene? And what about Japanese government debt? Or Ms. Watanabe willing to repatriate her savings, given that global yields are set to converge to zero?<BR/><BR/>As of writing, EURUSD is at 1.4250s, EURGBP at 0.9250s and spot gold is trading a bit north of $867, far away from the October 24th low of some $681… Now, what if deflation should become a real threat in the US and Japan by 2009-H1? (Euroland is obviously facing no such threat, given that Mr. Trichet would effectively solve it by simply naming it disinflation and keeping policy rates in the 1.50% to 2.00% range…).<BR/><BR/>Gold should therefore retrace, pushing EUR down to 1.30s or even lower… I mean, a huge QE effort by the Fed and BoJ would certainly give rise to an inflationary spike up, but only in the longer term and not while a fierce recession on both sides of the Pacific Ocean is under way.<BR/><BR/>Read you later, ATAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49237810489719233762008-12-17T14:20:00.000+00:002008-12-17T14:20:00.000+00:00I think it is mostly CTAs and stops, but they and ...I think it is mostly CTAs and stops, but they and others have evidently been along for the ride.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77647846903834516392008-12-17T14:09:00.000+00:002008-12-17T14:09:00.000+00:00In a straightforward way, MM you think it is mainl...In a straightforward way, MM you think it is mainly SAFE who drove the USD down in recent weeks?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64345520621200502022008-12-17T14:01:00.000+00:002008-12-17T14:01:00.000+00:00fed's shock and awe has the TY printing 127-15 now...fed's shock and awe has the TY printing 127-15 now, won't some black box systems lock up on a zero interest rate input..<BR/>light volume levitation on the nyse yest. below 1.5 bil shares..<BR/>hearing euro banks still won't lend with each other(still depositing at ecb window), and that interest rate differentials between sovereign european debt is at it widest level since the inception of the euro..<BR/>did the ecb pres really say yest. that there is 'no credit crunch'...<BR/>cheers! -deacAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7619302505612837152008-12-17T13:19:00.000+00:002008-12-17T13:19:00.000+00:00@anon: absolutely yes, a real weakness, infact for...@anon: absolutely yes, a real weakness, infact for me euro-based this asset class is becoming "cheaper" everyday. But my idea is that in a reflating world and in a demand/supply restriction at least they would outperform. Obviously in a deleveraging world this has risk!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33465599019004581042008-12-17T12:24:00.000+00:002008-12-17T12:24:00.000+00:00Macro Trading: "commodities are lagging the dollar...Macro Trading: "commodities are lagging the dollar". Wouldn't that rather be a sign of commodity weakness?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44894979422782730922008-12-17T11:08:00.000+00:002008-12-17T11:08:00.000+00:00Macro Man Great insights as always. I am thinking ...Macro Man<BR/> Great insights as always. I am thinking very deeply whether all the QE efforts by FED will overpower global credit deflation in short and medium term.<BR/> Obviously some punters came to a quick conclusion. I am under impression that European Banks are in worse shape than their US counterparts so i am very reluctant to go long.<BR/><BR/>kaanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75310313434492277542008-12-17T11:05:00.000+00:002008-12-17T11:05:00.000+00:00Yes, it's true that effective funds rate has been ...Yes, it's true that effective funds rate has been lower, but now moving to about 0 can have any better effect? This is the LOWEST rate worldwide, they're printing money, they've lost credibility, what else?<BR/>Implication for repo and money market could be worrisome...<BR/>What's difference now between paper money and treasury?? <BR/>What's worrying me now is that a HUGE bond bubble is forming, FED has announced that they will buy long-term treasury: in what amount, until what rate, and in particular HOW can they exit from this??? <BR/>We've yet lost interbank market, are we going to lose also bonds market? <BR/>If saving rate is a big problem for US, is this policy of any help?<BR/>Same problems, same errors.. and why, because they can't accept to live with their means, they can't accept a bad times period of time.<BR/>However, commodities are lagging this dollar movement (apart gold), i'm becoming bullish, what do you think??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com