tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6323670279685823949..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Back of the queue!Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61203743166299275352008-11-15T14:03:00.000+00:002008-11-15T14:03:00.000+00:00"The major demerit is that New Zealand is in the a..."The major demerit is that New Zealand is in the arse end of nowhere, so ancillary travel opportunities are less than ideal."<BR/><BR/>You may consider that a demerit, but if we truly have a long upheaval followed by a big war (like the 1930s and 1940s), I can't think of any place in the world I would rather be.<BR/><BR/>The wife does gripe sometimes about the thirty-six hours of travel it takes for her to visit her family (although a century ago, people would have jumped at the chance to make such a long trip in such a short amount of time), and I will concede that frequent travel to Europe from here requires a lot of time and money. On the other hand, for someone who justs wants to find a nice beach to relax on, several countries (not too far away) will have places that meet that requirement.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75503951396394538262008-11-14T13:04:00.000+00:002008-11-14T13:04:00.000+00:00In my original lengthy, lost post, I did touch on ...In my original lengthy, lost post, I did touch on the Antipodes. The major demerit is that New Zealand is in the arse end of nowhere, so ancillary travel opportunities are less than ideal.<BR/><BR/>As for the kiwis themselves, I live in London...so I hear plenty of bad things said about them whenever England plays the All Blacks.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51971121192128125542008-11-14T12:51:00.000+00:002008-11-14T12:51:00.000+00:00"When Obama talked about "change", ..."When Obama talked about "change", evidently he meant he was going to change which cronies got to rob the taxpayers blind"<BR/><BR/>Indeed. See this:<BR/><BR/>http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aNCFKvAMUQ6w<BR/><BR/>"MM if you were an American citizen who thought it might be a good time to take his dollars, pack a few cloths, and haul ass out of the US while the getting was good which county would you recommend?"<BR/><BR/>I can answer that (I have done it) in two words - NEW ZEALAND!<BR/><BR/>English speaking. Good weather (Auckland is closer to the Equator than San Francisco), though a bit wet in the winter. Friendly people (when is the last time you ever heard anyone say anything bad about New Zealand?). A relatively weak currency right now. Every outdoor activity imagineable. The perfect place to escape Armageddon in the rest of the world. Someone I know described it (relatively accurately, in my opinion) as "like California fifty years ago."<BR/><BR/>Plus new immigrants get a four year income tax exemption from offshore income.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31250109953162872812008-11-13T10:59:00.000+00:002008-11-13T10:59:00.000+00:00patrick....you may have point about col in vancouv...patrick....you may have point about col in vancouver...but i guess when it comes to quality of life....gotta pay up....and you're buying cheaper loonies...re subprime exp...i'm referring to cda as whole...whose financial sector,on a relative basis, has fared well...their banks are in better shape because they didn"t leverage up....afterall....the banks bot up all the brokers back in late 80;s after lbo debacle....so they are already where US banks and brokers are headed...PDShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12093322168518416902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56861630625859735452008-11-13T06:19:00.000+00:002008-11-13T06:19:00.000+00:00not to nitpick the last comment too much, but, umm...not to nitpick the last comment too much, but, ummm, theres a wackload of subprime in vancouver, but its not as transparent as one would like it to be. Given that Vancouver is the least affordable city in Canada (and probably N.A. too) the ability of most to finance is based on some creative financing not dissimiliar to the U.S. experience, but perhaps not as standardized. I am fairly certain that NINJAs and negative am financing is alive and well, just not documented as such.Filiphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16613836617892498181noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14262349522356924582008-11-13T02:08:00.000+00:002008-11-13T02:08:00.000+00:00country to go to??...i'd say canada...left coast.....country to go to??...i'd say canada...left coast...vancouver.....nice people....same language...no subprime...good banking system...surplus's...conservative govt....weather's a little wet..healthcare paid for but rationed...can't have everything...home of west coast lifestyle hat trick...golf, ski, sail...all in same day...not badPDShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12093322168518416902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1362794536274242362008-11-12T22:55:00.000+00:002008-11-12T22:55:00.000+00:00Do they help build relationships with clients!?Do they help build relationships with clients!?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55641739906341565892008-11-12T22:25:00.000+00:002008-11-12T22:25:00.000+00:00"what do these analysts do all day?"Sellside analy..."what do these analysts do all day?"<BR/><BR/>Sellside analysts are mainly a sales tool.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80075047375500211502008-11-12T21:42:00.000+00:002008-11-12T21:42:00.000+00:00I know its late in the day so not sure how many st...I know its late in the day so not sure how many still checking this before bed, but I've just watched another terrible day on Wall St, etc, etc. Bad news flow said to be driving markets, blah, blah.<BR/><BR/>But question. There are a lot of clever guys on the street, so what do these analysts do all day? I mean look if you're a trader the name of the game is to keep the P&L in the black by making the right call. So what is the deal with analysts? They totally missed the call on financials, oil was another (GS calling $150 I seem to remember). Then we got DBank analysts calling GM going to zero - well yeah a 5 year old can call that once the company themselves says they only have cash to last 6 weeks. <BR/><BR/>Am I missing something here??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86733374628557384322008-11-12T20:07:00.000+00:002008-11-12T20:07:00.000+00:00Argghhh. I just wrote a long post concluding that...Argghhh. I just wrote a long post concluding that I would recommend Spain, and it somehow got lost in the ether.<BR/><BR/>Anyhow, I'd recommend Spain- a n ice mixture of climate, culture, cost of living, and lifetyle...particularly if you stay away from the coastal areas filled with lobster-red Brits munching beans on toast and reading <I>The Sun</I>.<BR/><BR/>CB, if you're reading, perhaps you could render an opinion...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68918273791838950252008-11-12T20:06:00.000+00:002008-11-12T20:06:00.000+00:00anonymous@6:04PM:NOK/USD is not very impressive ri...anonymous@6:04PM:<BR/><BR/>NOK/USD is not very impressive right now. It's like a long oil, short USD position.<BR/><BR/>Cortex@12:13PM:<BR/><BR/>The more policymakers focus on system risk, the more system risk they will get. If they create incentives to get 2big2fail, the market will come out with companies that are 2big2fail. GM, Ford, AIG and banks all just follow the incentives.<BR/><BR/>If policymakers just concentrate on monitoring market mechanisms and allow failures, there will be nothing called system risk. Where is the system risk in the food supply of the US? Was Scottish banking inherently instable?<BR/><BR/>We are always in the long run, and today the problem with assuming we are dead is apparent. Congratulations all Keynesians.<BR/><BR/>JohanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57404419720539084462008-11-12T18:04:00.000+00:002008-11-12T18:04:00.000+00:00Anon 1:56While I'm not MM I'd say Scandinavia is a...Anon 1:56<BR/>While I'm not MM I'd say Scandinavia is about the safest harbor in this economic storm. If I had to pick just one country I'd say Norway.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57024579908599436372008-11-12T17:04:00.000+00:002008-11-12T17:04:00.000+00:00last hedge fund notices due 11/15, but then they h...last hedge fund notices due 11/15, but then they have 45 more days to liquidate, so a vicious tax-loss selling season seems to be on deck..<BR/>we had the dot.corn bubble over here as well, with ag stocks the momentum darlings(like MOS 31 in '07 to 162 mid-year '08 to 31 now)... look at this:<BR/>stocks of inorganic feed phosphates (IFP) have increased spectacularly on the back of falling demand. a vital raw material in the production of IFP is sulpher, and one sulphur price reference index - the Vancouver FOB - has fallen from highs during mid 2008 of US$840 mt to just US$30 mt at the start of November 2008. Sulphuric acid prices have followed suit.<BR/>...hard to step in front of hedge fund, endowment fund, pension fund liquidation in the commodities right now<BR/>-deacAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83102510156962701542008-11-12T16:07:00.000+00:002008-11-12T16:07:00.000+00:00A quirky example of the liquid US demand spiral --...A quirky example of the liquid US demand spiral -- when general money market rates drop, people like me who have to sit on wilting cash in brokerage accounts tend to dump it into very conservative long positions in US Treasury funds (i.e. the SHV ETF) as a no-brainer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89215639847272042542008-11-12T15:32:00.000+00:002008-11-12T15:32:00.000+00:00How about bailing out poorly run coffee shops ??--...How about bailing out poorly run coffee shops ??<BR/><BR/>------------------------------<BR/><BR/>from CNBC:-<BR/><BR/>The joke on the Street this morning is that Starbucks wants to be part of the TARP — that Peolosi and company thinks everyone needs a $5 latte in this economy.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01187416648160477630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28488384879403327652008-11-12T15:16:00.000+00:002008-11-12T15:16:00.000+00:00So we have a new government in the United States. ...So we have a new government in the United States. Instead of bailing out poorly run banks, we are now going to bail out poorly run auto-makers.<BR/><BR/>I thought McCain was supposed to be the one continuing failed Bush policies?<BR/><BR/>When Obama talked about "change", evidently he meant he was going to change which cronies got to rob the taxpayers blindAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19168786419249462008-11-12T14:46:00.000+00:002008-11-12T14:46:00.000+00:00FJ, yes, though the degree of correlation at the m...FJ, yes, though the degree of correlation at the moment is quite high.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34056206844767236182008-11-12T14:44:00.001+00:002008-11-12T14:44:00.001+00:00Doesnt DXY only track the dollar against 6 or so m...Doesnt DXY only track the dollar against 6 or so major currencies so "weaker currencies like TRY" shouldn't be relevant?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18229397342224154002008-11-12T14:44:00.000+00:002008-11-12T14:44:00.000+00:00FC, that would explain relative price competitiven...FC, that would explain relative price competitiveness between Detroit and Toyota....but it still wouldn't help US automakers a) improve build quality, which is dire b) improve styling, which is dire, and c) improve fuel efficiency, which is dire.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65705147636900647012008-11-12T14:42:00.000+00:002008-11-12T14:42:00.000+00:00us dollar up, stock markets and commodities down, ...us dollar up, stock markets and commodities down, it's been a fairly tight inverse since september...with more dollar strength say into 90, then crude oil to 50, gold to 600-650, corn to 3 and soybeans to 8...so many tell me corn is dirt cheap down here, au contraire the commodities are still double the highs of their previous historical ranges right now<BR/>-deacAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39781330394925151282008-11-12T14:40:00.000+00:002008-11-12T14:40:00.000+00:00Perhaps Detroit would be more competitive if the B...Perhaps Detroit would be more competitive if the BOJ had not been parking dollars and the jpy/usd < 75. Or if the US Treasury did not allow them to counterfeit the USD by spraying it all over the world at forty to one? Whaddaya think.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-496350940651803952008-11-12T13:56:00.001+00:002008-11-12T13:56:00.001+00:00MM if you were an American citizen who thought it ...MM if you were an American citizen who thought it might be a good time to take his dollars, pack a few cloths, and haul ass out of the US while the getting was good which county would you recommend?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1038862714152068732008-11-12T13:56:00.000+00:002008-11-12T13:56:00.000+00:00Anon, I am not involved in USD/TRY as a) it's exp...Anon, I am not involved in USD/TRY as a) it's expensive to be long, and b) it's too volatile for my taste. There are a number of factors that argue it should go up a lot (capital starvation, fx debt in corporate sector), and a number that argue that it should remain resilient (very high real interest rates, lower oil is a massively positive terms of trade shock.)<BR/><BR/>For choice, I suppose I think it keeps going (there are probably quite a few unhappy TRY/ZAR longs at the moment)...but I also think there are more relaxing, higher Sharpe ratio trades out there.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82774739728217320042008-11-12T13:34:00.000+00:002008-11-12T13:34:00.000+00:00Hey Macro-Man and other informed readers (err, tra...Hey Macro-Man and other informed readers (err, traders of the blog),<BR/><BR/>What is your take on further moves on USD/TRY? Do you see other near term plays against other emerging markets?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56043449359815296312008-11-12T13:12:00.000+00:002008-11-12T13:12:00.000+00:00Ahh - the "old homeland" - now is the new homeland...Ahh - the "old homeland" - now is the new homeland - welcome to the People's Republic of America...<BR/>Surely, Karl is grinning a bit...somewhere.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com