tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6305802960016912901..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A brief history lessonMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66744269605656678762015-08-08T09:15:15.350+01:002015-08-08T09:15:15.350+01:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17819608683448021400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41145262197869788832015-07-30T20:26:23.569+01:002015-07-30T20:26:23.569+01:00Another sign the commodity super cycle is over.Another sign the commodity super cycle is over.Chris Bessererhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05596566078810821276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2804117096523562312015-07-28T11:07:58.492+01:002015-07-28T11:07:58.492+01:00@Anon 1:30 pm July 27
Under gold standard dollar ...@Anon 1:30 pm July 27<br /><br />Under gold standard dollar = gold. Inflation means dollar/gold loses value compared to stuff, deflation the opposite, hence you can say that gold rises during deflation.<br /><br />After the gold standard, dollar is not gold, gold moves to the "stuff" category. Inflation means dollar loses value compared to stuff including gold, deflation the opposite, hence gold declines during deflation.<br /><br />This article you linked fails to understand this simple fact.thetanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44966431765070676322015-07-27T21:24:00.903+01:002015-07-27T21:24:00.903+01:00So it's probably not the whole story, but pric...So it's probably not the whole story, but <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-17/china-increases-gold-reserves-in-first-disclosure-since-2009" rel="nofollow">price-insensitive central banks buying $20bio (500 tons) a year of the shiny yellow stuff</a>, just because they think it'll somehow spite the USA, would probably explain at least part of it. <br /><br />Not gonna editorialise on whether that's a good or bad trade, but these are the same names who couldn't sell enough of it in the 300s back in the late-90s/early-00s - and now they're buying it back a thousand bucks higher. Joshhttp://josh.sg/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12306733858828309932015-07-27T13:32:47.540+01:002015-07-27T13:32:47.540+01:00@abee - One could equally say that those long bond...@abee - One could equally say that those long bonds or equities will get crushed. If they do, goldbugs will do well. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81778705995461757442015-07-27T13:30:49.499+01:002015-07-27T13:30:49.499+01:00@Bruce - Au contraire, gold is a deflationary hedg...@Bruce - Au contraire, gold is a deflationary hedge:<br />http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/13/column-oconnell-gold-deflation-idUSL6E8ID53N20120713Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72158820971153691252015-07-27T13:13:14.636+01:002015-07-27T13:13:14.636+01:00Agreed gnome, marginal cost matters more for aggs ...Agreed gnome, marginal cost matters more for aggs and oil where output is constantly used, not for gold where it is mostly hoarded. Over the long term I suspect it will keep pace with asset prices, but for now, we'll look what's happening to the usd vs brazil, canada, auz, Mexico, turkey etc. It's a dollar story, just not a euro story. <br /><br />Gold today is like macro trading in heydays of the 80s, all sentiment/technicals with one or two big themes. Goldbugs are gonna get crushed. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51746868822129296772015-07-27T13:09:05.478+01:002015-07-27T13:09:05.478+01:00When I think about this point in time we've ar...<br />When I think about this point in time we've arrived upon, it seems it gets back to the trying to cure a debt crisis thingy with more debt. A man much older and wiser than I, when we were discussing investments just after the tech bubble, suggested that I not buy techs for the time being as once the bubble burst, his opinion would be that things would need quite some time to settle out. As people debate the inflation vs deflation state of the global economy, it does seem to me that at some point further debt creation will be seen as counterproductive, and deflationary trends should predominate. If that occurs, Au will not be one of the investments of choice.<br /><br />2 cents...Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61370151361662848932015-07-27T13:07:48.612+01:002015-07-27T13:07:48.612+01:00Bet there's a lot of Chinese who wish they'...Bet there's a lot of Chinese who wish they'd bought gold instead of stocks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18507687701508718542015-07-27T11:46:54.292+01:002015-07-27T11:46:54.292+01:00Commodities can easily stay below their marginal c...Commodities can easily stay below their marginal cost of production for a long time. Especially in the case of gold, where current mine supply is almost irrelevant as it is less than 2% of the total worldwide gold stock. Gold is not consumed, it is hoarded. Hoarding/investment demand makes the price and nothing much else.<br /><br />But I still think it's useful to hoard some as a hedge (common definition of a trade gone wrong). Overshooting inflation compared to low expectations could be an issue over the next few years. Just don't get fooled by marginal cost of production floor arguments.<br /><br />Besides that, there are some gold miners that are still making good money at current prices and are paying 3-5% dividends, mainly thanks to currency tailwinds in AUD, CAD, TRY et cetera. Just don't buy the big overindebted producers, they are all becoming almost worthless equity stubs trading like options. Good for a trade only. Which is most of the GDX these days...Gnome of Zurichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16425282787703194732015-07-27T10:13:48.438+01:002015-07-27T10:13:48.438+01:00At some point, commodities approach their marginal...At some point, commodities approach their marginal cost of production. They may not stay there very long but they do get there. With the fall in oil (diesel being many mine's biggest input cost) the AISC has gotten progressively lower in $USD terms. There's a a lot of high cost producers who haven't gone to the wall yet so still scope for falls IMO.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22639212252110101272015-07-27T10:05:12.520+01:002015-07-27T10:05:12.520+01:00The Shanghai Composite Index plunged 8.5 per cent ...The Shanghai Composite Index plunged 8.5 per cent to close at 3725.56, shattering the sense of calm that had fallen over mainland markets last week.<br /><br />There is "Never on cockroach", systematic risk in many Chinese sectors me thinks, still safe to bet the next GDP number will be 7%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15211113383694355772015-07-27T09:26:23.936+01:002015-07-27T09:26:23.936+01:00@theta - lol. You are however (somewhat) wrong abo...@theta - lol. You are however (somewhat) wrong about stocks outperforming gold. Dependent on the starting date of your time series I can prove that gold has outperformed stocks, or stocks outperformed gold, or whatever. I also find rabid goldbugs tedious, but let's not be rabid equities bugs either (even I can't play that game forever). And equities are manipulated - after all, what is easy monetary policy with a view to causing asset price inflation in equities & property, if not manipulation?<br /><br />I do think MM makes an interesting point about Gold's relative lack of demise, however I was also surprised how badly it did in the Greek crisis. FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70439916073567468852015-07-27T09:13:13.865+01:002015-07-27T09:13:13.865+01:00You just gave an idea to ZeroHedge to come up with...You just gave an idea to ZeroHedge to come up with a cheerleading post about gold doing great amidst commodity collapse, having outperformed everything (except the stocks of course but these are manipulated and it's paper profit anyway and it will collapse) and therefore you should buy and hold forever.thetanoreply@blogger.com