tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6246092893133842433..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: D-day for Lehman: A running diaryMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28943733446792021472008-09-11T22:30:00.000+01:002008-09-11T22:30:00.000+01:00I am suitably impressed, and thanks for responding...I am suitably impressed, and thanks for responding. I am just recovering from the swing around myself. I thought this was it (the crash)I wake up as I am in the east and then I see my S+P shorts are all stopped out.<BR/><BR/>This market ain't easy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45461661008532310852008-09-11T11:59:00.000+01:002008-09-11T11:59:00.000+01:00Mickson...the P/L disappearing is nothing sinister...Mickson...the P/L disappearing is nothing sinister, I can assure you. I switched shops in March, going from a place where I ran my own book on a spreasheet (thus making it easy to copy/paste) to a shop where the technology is great and automated. Thus, to maintain it separately would require double work, which I am not really interested in doing. <BR/><BR/>My performance since inception at the new shop is mid single digits, which I'd charactrize as reasonable if unspectacular.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85790510969166066332008-09-11T11:09:00.000+01:002008-09-11T11:09:00.000+01:00I am extremely embarrassed I never checked out you...I am extremely embarrassed I never checked out your time stamps correctly. If you are sleeping well please forgive me.<BR/>MicksonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55958322839493580852008-09-11T11:06:00.000+01:002008-09-11T11:06:00.000+01:00MMYou are one impressive fellow. I read your blog,...MM<BR/><BR/>You are one impressive fellow. I read your blog, almost, daily.<BR/><BR/>I don't usually read the comments section, but looking at the time stamps on the site, it doesn't look like you are getting much sleep.<BR/><BR/>I am also in the fund management game but I try and keep things a lot simpler, which is probably why I am managing a lot less money than you are. You seem to have everything at your finger tips with complex positions each with 1st line and 2nd line derivative implications and you find the time to maintain your blog.<BR/><BR/>Now that I have flattered you, I may have missed the post where you explained your reason for dropping your P&L report.<BR/><BR/>I like everyone in the industry want to know how my colleagues in the industry are doing, call it nosy, but I suspect we are all alpha males trying to brag that we are bigger/better than one another. Dare I say it we also sometimes draw comfort when others fail. <BR/><BR/>As I never ask the question of P&L outright as I deem it inpolite in the extreme, I will not ask you. However, I am curious as to the reasons you chose not to post it. I do recall writing to you probably a year ago that you were tremendously brave to expose yourself to the degree you were doing it. Almost before I read your blog I went straight to the P&L.<BR/><BR/>In conclusion I am a great fan irrespective of whether you are making money or losing it as you provide me with useful macro views in order for me to make my own mind up.<BR/><BR/>I to try and keep a daily journal, I remember you called this blog a scientific laboratory, but I am sometimes overwhelmed by the days activity that often all I get down is "I am depressed", "I am on the money" "this is hard".<BR/><BR/>By the way when your 6 year old starts beating you at chess, you know that you probably need to take a break.<BR/><BR/><BR/>MicksonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5694304045527806682008-09-11T03:31:00.000+01:002008-09-11T03:31:00.000+01:00MM,You are the Macro Man. Take a step back and th...MM,<BR/><BR/>You are the Macro Man. Take a step back and think to yourself. Is LEH going to zero? A: Yes. Is the U.S. Economy (specifically consumer) buggered? A: Yes.<BR/><BR/>Keep the short delta position on and stay away from the crap shoot that has become FX.<BR/><BR/>BTW, as the new guy I have been assigned the job of going to CB websites and Yahoo! finance and clicking refresh over and over again after this Kiwi debacle.<BR/><BR/>-NYAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79464237586913822302008-09-10T23:27:00.000+01:002008-09-10T23:27:00.000+01:00on the Large Hadron Collider.If you were itching f...on the Large Hadron Collider.<BR/><BR/><BR/>If you were itching for the Global Macro Apocalypse, whether that's exponentially growing black holes, stimulated Goldman emissions, dark energy balance sheet chain reaction, EUR/GBP=1.0, or Jim Simons to lose money, you'll have to wait for next year.<BR/><BR/><BR/>nerd diversion:<BR/><BR/>They only turned it up to "1". <BR/>The LHC's collision energy this week was no more than 0.5 TeV, significantly less than the maximum used at Fermilab. So like the credit crisis, we've seen this physics before.<BR/><BR/>Next year, they call Scotty to turn up the antimatter drive to '11'. That's when the going'll get weird.<BR/><BR/>Hold on to your shorts, and put Mycroft on speed dial.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57370132135611055452008-09-10T22:21:00.000+01:002008-09-10T22:21:00.000+01:00This happens often enough with BBG that I have to ...This happens often enough with BBG that I have to start wondering if someone in their new headline department is taking a bung from unavoury characters to misreport CB decisions.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25259394541542119032008-09-10T22:16:00.000+01:002008-09-10T22:16:00.000+01:00WTF? Can't Bloomberg even read a press release cor...WTF? Can't Bloomberg even read a press release correctly?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68139276806806033462008-09-10T20:57:00.000+01:002008-09-10T20:57:00.000+01:00Lehman going out at $7...Lehman going out at $7...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45776288192146370862008-09-10T20:33:00.000+01:002008-09-10T20:33:00.000+01:00Oh, I haven't touched my UK equity position.But I ...Oh, I haven't touched my UK equity position.<BR/><BR/>But I covered the IBEX short on Monday's open- I mean, we all know Spain is buggered, too, but given the illiquidity of that contract and the rip-snorting level of Spoos at the time (1278 or so on the futures at the European futures opening), it seemed prudent to trim European futures risk- some of which I'd added on Friday half a percent from the lows.<BR/><BR/>While I swiftly replaced the position with puts, my delta was less- and combined with a purchase of OTM SPX upside gamma, it's left me a lot less short on the way down than I was on the way up.<BR/><BR/>Which is why it would be nice to at least visit Friday's lows in Europe. It's a bit odd, really; European equities have gone from trading horribly last week to trading bloody well so far this week. As I write, the SPX is largely unched from Friday's close, but the SX%E and UKX are both well up on the week...and that's <I>with</I> more hawkish nonsense from Trichet today.<BR/><BR/>Colour me confused.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66069196214370310572008-09-10T20:16:00.000+01:002008-09-10T20:16:00.000+01:00what happened to the convicition!!!! I thought you...what happened to the convicition!!!! I thought you were in the uk going to hell camp!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55782088905980682912008-09-10T19:46:00.000+01:002008-09-10T19:46:00.000+01:00I'm up in equities- though not nearly as much as I...I'm up in equities- though not nearly as much as I was on Friday and I would have expected to be today- but I've more than compensated for that this month with losses in FX and US govvys. Somehow, my low-risk bond hedge has completely overturned my equity profits, thanks to my cutting equity risk at nosebleed levels on Monday.<BR/><BR/>It's all recoverable, but highly irritating nonetheless.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13100916620160850052008-09-10T19:40:00.000+01:002008-09-10T19:40:00.000+01:00how you down?? When you said you were going short ...how you down?? When you said you were going short uk equities MCX was at 9600 so that's been superb. LEH could have made long or short from $8...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55864580191907984892008-09-10T18:50:00.000+01:002008-09-10T18:50:00.000+01:00Hang in there Macro Man. Take a look at the mini ...Hang in there Macro Man. Take a look at the mini spoos over the life of the (September) contract, putting the volume below the chart. It's classic: Heavier volume into the May-June selloff, then declining volume into the upward consolidation, and dramatically increasing volume over the past 6 days. I'm a small core short and have no intention of tinkering with it. (I'm also a medium core long US 2-years, have you seen the TIPS 5-yr breakevens? Down to 1.5%--Fed Funds now ABOVE inflation!!!)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91720810031793555452008-09-10T17:20:00.000+01:002008-09-10T17:20:00.000+01:00Deflation has the SPX in a chokehold.Deflation has the SPX in a chokehold.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78477680478920603922008-09-10T16:57:00.000+01:002008-09-10T16:57:00.000+01:00Gold is going to see 730$, then 700$ minimum near ...Gold is going to see 730$, then 700$ minimum near term.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19398092791571767552008-09-10T16:38:00.001+01:002008-09-10T16:38:00.001+01:00I expect that the BS-LEH problems would cause deri...I expect that the BS-LEH problems would cause derivatives to move to clearinghouses, leading to more transparent pricing. Customers will have better price discovery options once this deleveraging is finished. If so, the ongoing profitability for all players, including Goldman, will be muted. Makes it difficult for me to want to argue for LEH.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15666095220278541002008-09-10T16:38:00.000+01:002008-09-10T16:38:00.000+01:00Feeling the pain, pissed off and grumpy. When righ...Feeling the pain, pissed off and grumpy. When right directionally through options, I look at my P&L and vol has been marked down so hard that I have lost money. Where high conviction on direction, it goes the other way. Maybe law school not such a bad idea.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21897786622870208972008-09-10T16:34:00.000+01:002008-09-10T16:34:00.000+01:00it seems the yen has been following the vix...i ju...it seems the yen has been following the vix...i just can't believe the vix is still down with s&p well off the highs.<BR/><BR/>covered my gold short (probably much too early), but i'll take my profits when i can get them these days.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74298729379298562072008-09-10T16:27:00.000+01:002008-09-10T16:27:00.000+01:00MM - not at you at the situation. We're laughi...MM - not at you at the situation. We're laughing and crying right besides you. (:<Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07898348310819841317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11429448872858152422008-09-10T16:07:00.000+01:002008-09-10T16:07:00.000+01:00looks like it's Washington Mutual's turn today...-...looks like it's Washington Mutual's turn today...-25% at present...<BR/><BR/>I guess you can't have "slaughter" without "laughter"...<BR/><BR/>EAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37222102065300079162008-09-10T15:52:00.000+01:002008-09-10T15:52:00.000+01:00While it's tempting to pull out the Joe Pesci line...While it's tempting to pull out the Joe Pesci line from Goodfellas ("What? Am I some sort of clown that I amuse you?), I will restrain myself and say thank you and that I'm glad that my bewilderment is doing somebody some good. ;)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90372330763370513522008-09-10T15:50:00.000+01:002008-09-10T15:50:00.000+01:00leh --is there anything left to buy outside of the...leh --is there anything left to buy outside of the asset maangent group--i mean couldn't u just hire the employees and start with a clean book--they always say the assets walk out the door at night but the debts stay on the books--well i would hire want i want and then use fresh capital to buy what if any is on there books that you want but he leh name is going away--and man eurjpy is the widow maker on steriodsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55290710667774985232008-09-10T15:48:00.000+01:002008-09-10T15:48:00.000+01:00even as the markets turn frustrating, your posts a...even as the markets turn frustrating, your posts are becoming more delightful to read. thank you.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16978858400004505965noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91529469026247148212008-09-10T15:27:00.000+01:002008-09-10T15:27:00.000+01:00Time decay, on the other hand, is decidedly not......Time decay, on the other hand, is decidedly not...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.com