tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6233636968067028933..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Waiting on the BOJMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26319716792543246612015-09-15T23:56:32.943+01:002015-09-15T23:56:32.943+01:00@MM - totally agree.@MM - totally agree.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25783581171952532552015-09-15T22:59:07.666+01:002015-09-15T22:59:07.666+01:00Wow, Zerohedge managed to uncover central bank par...Wow, Zerohedge managed to uncover central bank participation in FX markets only 8-9 years after I was writing about it here! Ironically, it comes at a time when they are probably less active in G4 markets than at any point in the last dozen years.<br /><br />Also, it's amazing how the Chief Dealer of the BOE got thrown under the bus for the FX fixing thing, but Paul Tucker emerged unscathed from the 'BOE ordered LIBOR manipulation' thing. Just goes to show that it's not what you did, but who you know....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65641103981531759242015-09-15T22:45:37.375+01:002015-09-15T22:45:37.375+01:00"...one of the men told a subordinate that he...<i>"...one of the men told a subordinate that he needed to start lowering the bank’s Libors. When the more junior employee started to object, the first man told him <b>the order had come from the most senior levels of the bank, who in turn were acting on instructions from the Bank of England</b>....</i>"<br /><br /><i>"...this means that not only do central banks trade FX on a day to day basis, something which has become increasingly clear in the past couple of years by merely observing the rigged market, but Citi was actively leaking this data to select clients!..</i>"<br /><br />"<i>...one day a former Fed trader will give the full explanation of just how the NY Fed's market group manipulates the S&P500 on a day to day basis..</i>"<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-14/was-tom-hayes-running-the-biggest-financial-conspiracy-in-history-<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-15/explosive-allegation-citigroup-leaked-central-bank-trading-activity-select-clientsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5815028152609652752015-09-15T20:43:23.368+01:002015-09-15T20:43:23.368+01:002yr swaps have collapsed in last 24hrs2yr swaps have collapsed in last 24hrsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34898233430713985792015-09-15T20:12:31.721+01:002015-09-15T20:12:31.721+01:00the only problem being, there is no real accountin...the only problem being, there is no real accounting in Russia<br /><br />it is absolutely impossible to know what value you are biddingNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5270777148071927912015-09-15T20:10:33.465+01:002015-09-15T20:10:33.465+01:00While you all enjoy your beautiful brazilian asset...While you all enjoy your beautiful brazilian assets, waht about good old Russia (RSX)? It looks to me that RSX had priced in enough the end of world events and should have some decent rebound if we believe EM as a whole needs one. <br /><br />Why Russia is a better option than Brazil now: Putin at least has a much better domestic control than Dilma; and Russia is closely related to Europe and Brazil is closely related to China. EU is in a better position than China now, thus Russia is more desirable than Brazil in that sense. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80854206767302834232015-09-15T19:21:05.814+01:002015-09-15T19:21:05.814+01:00Bapu !... Brazilian girls are the most overinflate...Bapu !... Brazilian girls are the most overinflated assets in the world... there are 40 countries with better (and much much classier) looking girls in this world but none of them had that 'copacabin marketin'Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5561385193022466862015-09-15T18:59:32.935+01:002015-09-15T18:59:32.935+01:00Yeah right Nico - due diligence on RE is exactly w...Yeah right Nico - due diligence on RE is exactly why ur headed to Brazil!<br />Here's a clip of Nico at copacabana next month - he is the guy playing the bongo....<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCKxxnEP3zYwashedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50902433322417526042015-09-15T18:26:57.920+01:002015-09-15T18:26:57.920+01:00Mr. T there'll come a time when Brazil will b...Mr. T there'll come a time when Brazil will be tradable cf. the Fear and Loathing of 2003 Lula (and cheap real) Quite lower from now though I'm going there next month to check some RENicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19339238910950942742015-09-15T16:40:35.649+01:002015-09-15T16:40:35.649+01:00Mr T - right there with u on macau stuff - las veg...Mr T - right there with u on macau stuff - las vegas sands - haven for the retail gambler - chinese GDP and FAI may be destined for mediocrity, but chinese consumption will be a hockey stick.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91421827008625525742015-09-15T16:36:29.883+01:002015-09-15T16:36:29.883+01:00stock prices will be completely unchanged on thurs...stock prices will be completely unchanged on thursday regardless of what the fed does.<br />both vol buyers and vol sellers will lose their shirts - the former because it won't go anywhere and the latter because the fools will hedge their gamma in a panic and chase the market both ways.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90545798722077130722015-09-15T16:13:46.861+01:002015-09-15T16:13:46.861+01:00Stocks prices are changing in a range, or not, bec...Stocks prices are changing in a range, or not, because some currency exchange rate has moved, or not... <br />There will be a HUGE (or small, or medium, or some other adjective) re-pricing of equities when the Fed acts, or fails to act, on Thurs.<br />Watch these foolish longs or shorts (or those in between) lose their shirts, or make money...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32355494042822235452015-09-15T16:08:31.542+01:002015-09-15T16:08:31.542+01:00Brazil has been and will continue to be basically ...Brazil has been and will continue to be basically uninvestable for me. Partly thats because I have little confidence in the governments of S. America, and partly because the cost of risk factors associated with brazil outweigh any reasonable expectation of profit. Put another way, if I wanted to make a commodity bet there are much better options out there that don't carry the brazil-specific risks (if I wanted to bet on oil why would I use PBR as a vehicle?) The less factor-specific bets there still carry the country risk. S. America is just a single-digit PE risk group.<br /><br />Somewhat interestingly, Russia & China also fall into the same bucket, although with even stricter risk-mgmt imposed constraints. Basically 0 risk limits there. I have to wonder how much of the India outperformance is from similar constraints people have elsewhere yet still throwing money at the BRIC concept? <br /><br />Sure would be nice to be a fly on the wall for this FOMC meeting. With the street falling over each other finding clever new ways that the fed can save face and remain dovish it's clear they are in a box. The thing is as far as I can tell the primary reason for rate "normalization" is to have ammo to fight the next cyclical dip - noone seems genuinely concerned about asset price inflation, breakevens are not indicating anyone being behind the curve, etc. Given that a) there is pretty decent and growing chance of the dip coming soon and b) the amount of rate reduction required to have a counter-cyclical effect is far greater than the amount they are considering raising by and c) the fed has opened pandoras box of policy tools - I think the argument for "loading ammo" is very weak. At zero rates the fed will continue to find ways to shape the curves as they see fit with or without a drop in FFR. This leads me to continue to feel that the right positioning into year end is a risk-on cb inspired rally (again!). The noise about the economy is second fiddle to a permanent reduction in discount rates.<br /><br />Lots of ways to position, one that is fairly new for me is I'm up to my eyeballs in the Macau gambling names. Any sort of TWINE model that looks at cashflows a couple years out shows quite a bit of value.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44437871481058031332015-09-15T16:00:32.556+01:002015-09-15T16:00:32.556+01:00Stocks are failing to break their recent range des...Stocks are failing to break their recent range despite BOJ yen selling... <br />There will be a HUGE melt-down in equities when the Fed sticks with a rate hike on Thurs.<br />Watch these foolish longs lose their shirts...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-643431263893150532015-09-15T15:50:34.783+01:002015-09-15T15:50:34.783+01:00Stocks are already rallying on back of BOJ yen sel...Stocks are already rallying on back of BOJ yen selling... <br />There will be a HUGE melt-up in equities when the Fed postpones it's rate hike on Thurs.<br />Watch these foolish shorts lose their shirts... Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25098834249424843932015-09-15T15:24:07.893+01:002015-09-15T15:24:07.893+01:00Draghi celebrating Lehman birthday collapse:
ECB b...Draghi celebrating Lehman birthday collapse:<br />ECB balance sheet expansion accelerates considerably. Rose by €19bn vs €9.5bn the week before driven by QE program Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46985531983708548932015-09-15T15:04:46.365+01:002015-09-15T15:04:46.365+01:00Happy birthday (of your collapse) Lehman Brothers....Happy birthday (of your collapse) Lehman Brothers. We have learned nothing since your fall.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30786759877890449942015-09-15T15:04:29.938+01:002015-09-15T15:04:29.938+01:00Also, a US based investor obviously also incurs cu...Also, a US based investor obviously also incurs currency risk, which EWZ captures but the local currency Bovespa does not.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66265878708937800032015-09-15T15:00:29.870+01:002015-09-15T15:00:29.870+01:00CJ - sry I was referrring to EWZ as a proxy not bo...CJ - sry I was referrring to EWZ as a proxy not bovespa directly - its weight in commodities has come down a lot so major weighings are now in ambev, itau etc.<br />Appreciate ur thts - nice blog btw.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57512215228125900582015-09-15T14:52:36.539+01:002015-09-15T14:52:36.539+01:00What does 75% off the high mean?
The BOVESPA is 5...What does 75% off the high mean?<br /><br />The BOVESPA is 57% above 2008 lows. <br /><br />In 2008 you had fiscal surplus/less deficit, 6-years of QE, commodity inflation, artificially strong China on the come. The bovespa p/e was 11<br /><br />In 2015; qt, China? Real? The P/e is 14. Earnings estimates are too high.crackerjack financenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70803815085080556742015-09-15T14:30:03.968+01:002015-09-15T14:30:03.968+01:00Is it time to revisit oil and grains discussion?
...Is it time to revisit oil and grains discussion?<br /><br />On oil, it seems that OPEC is trying to talk the price down. Is the main driver for this the competition inside OPEC or continuation of the price pressure on US shale?<br /><br />Taking into account relative performance of the curves of WTI (flattening) vs. Brent (steepening) internal competition carries more weight.<br /><br />Is this the best way for the cartel to approach US exports that get closer by day? May be no, as it seems the only constructive outcome of the recent OPEC policy is the strengthening of remaining US producers (efficiency and new markets/better pricing).<br /><br />What is going to give? The price is not falling to 20 yet, if anything it is holding up well.<br /><br />On grains, there is plenty across the world but there is no better cure for low prices than low prices. There is going to be some acreage reductions in the US next year. Consumers buying hand to mouth do recognise value here and once US harvest and yields are known there is some risk of consumer short covering. BRL vs. ags right now is moving in one direction but at some point after stabilisation the same logic will apply the other way.<br /><br />NickNicknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73624325294508251382015-09-15T13:39:52.444+01:002015-09-15T13:39:52.444+01:00LB - see if u can urself some churros from st gine...LB - see if u can urself some churros from st gines cafe - worth a trip to madrid by itself, I must say - safe travels.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62208192087580633822015-09-15T13:27:23.182+01:002015-09-15T13:27:23.182+01:00CJ - thanks for the link - what kind of further pr...CJ - thanks for the link - what kind of further price collapse from 75% off the highs would u like in the bovespa for u to see it as a good long term risk/reward? In my experience, when western newspapers abhor an EM and foreign capital wants out, has typically been the best time to buy (India in 1991, Brazil and Argentina in 2002 etc) - I do agree, and indeed have been a big proponent of the secular downshift in commodities - my struggle with brazil has been to identify companies that have nothing to do with oil or grains which have gotten chucked out with the rest. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25121483011874334702015-09-15T13:19:07.986+01:002015-09-15T13:19:07.986+01:00Booger, I tend to agree with him, and as I tried t...Booger, I tend to <a href="http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2015/01/a-funny-thing-happened-on-way-to-130.html" rel="nofollow">agree</a> with him, and as I tried to allude to, that may be one factor staying their hand at the moment.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34169595622753952742015-09-15T13:16:44.020+01:002015-09-15T13:16:44.020+01:00Skippy is sympathetic to reflation trades. However...Skippy is sympathetic to reflation trades. However, he remains in two minds simply because the S&P correction (from a pure price perspective) does not appear to be over. Rather, it does look like a text book consolidation/continuation pattern. <br /><br />That said, the odds of a dovish Fed based purely on inflation risk perceptions and a potential bullish response from reflation assets seem reasonable. Skippynoreply@blogger.com