tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6206309240397754449..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A public service announcement from MMMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger59125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62009134003439223452017-01-12T20:33:04.337+00:002017-01-12T20:33:04.337+00:00My last post was only about Italy, anything beyond...My last post was only about Italy, anything beyond -1.5% down gets my attention. (US equity markets are still dead boring at the moment, when Spooz really leave their range it will be fast and ugly). For anyone trading Europe or EURUSD Italy will be the main story this year so i watch it closely. I do not think there is a clean way out for Italian banks. Bankrupt means bankrupt this time. Italians hold the (bleak) future of the EURO project in their tomato sauced hands.<br /><br />One country, at least just ONE developed country needs to see its banks fail for too much greed and cronysm, laxism and a lack of internal audit. The Italian population is starting to learn who got cosy deals with Monte Paschi and ran with the money. The Italian population is footing the bill as we speak. Until there is proper banking regulation and supervisation, bankers will always take too much risk. The risk/reward - personal bonus, or socialised loss - has never been better it's the perfect morally bankrupt martingale.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28223309607678028502017-01-12T19:12:24.720+00:002017-01-12T19:12:24.720+00:00thud,
Thanks! Even a blind squirrel finds a nut o...thud,<br /><br />Thanks! Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. It was a nice cushion for my blunder in copper though.<br /><br />I am starting to think more and more that DJT and his team are going to pull all-nighters strategizing on how to get away from pesky reporters. It's the same theme that hunted Clinton during his days as a pres. This takes the full attention from the policy decisions. Makes him tired, frustrated, agitated, unreasonable, uncooperative, with the latter being so important in DC in order to get the things passed. I am pressing all my shorts now: XRT, XHB, IYT, SMH, and adding to my metals shorts as well. <br /><br /> IPAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10703986579047358372017-01-12T18:53:57.647+00:002017-01-12T18:53:57.647+00:00The purpose of today was purely to remove the weak...The purpose of today was purely to remove the weak longs, and trap shorts so that we can drive the Dow up through 20K and beyond. <br /><br />Equity short sellers are gonna get pole-axed again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57764851119805790302017-01-12T18:52:08.408+00:002017-01-12T18:52:08.408+00:00Just when Nico thought he'd make some money th...Just when Nico thought he'd make some money the JBTFD'ers step in and.... IT'S GONE.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28495516262387908232017-01-12T18:25:58.238+00:002017-01-12T18:25:58.238+00:00@IPA... I forgot to tell you nice call on the NG 2...@IPA... I forgot to tell you nice call on the NG 20% off sale.<br /><br />Vol compression continues despite the lack of concrete (or even mushy) details on economic policies and tax reform. Uncertainty? Nah, we're good... back to work MAGA'ing and whatnot. Sell vol and carry on... was that Thad and Brad or another group of 12yo HFM's bros?<br /><br /> thudnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41132447739775514092017-01-12T18:10:58.746+00:002017-01-12T18:10:58.746+00:00@henner can you re-send please? I thought I got ev...@henner can you re-send please? I thought I got everyone but with >150 emails to sift through some slipped through the cracks Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44740794963264287302017-01-12T18:06:55.329+00:002017-01-12T18:06:55.329+00:00You mean something like this Nico?
http://joella...You mean something like this Nico? <br /><br />http://joellambert.com/665/virtuosity-navy-seals-use-shooting-fundamentals-forge-elite-warriors/<br /><br />Fundamentals and virtuosity been the key words... Somewhat missing from a certain speech last night. Skrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89820114771382632922017-01-12T18:04:30.003+00:002017-01-12T18:04:30.003+00:00Nico,
Thanks for the link, though you can (and us...Nico,<br /><br />Thanks for the link, though you can (and usually should for privacy reasons) leave off the question mark and everything after that. Glad to see the trolls haven't chased you away.<br /><br />I think your themes are spot on. I remember a while back (a year or two ago) reading some analyst complaining that some debt ratio was "growing above trendline" and I am thinking "WTF? - debt ratios eventually have to flatline; they simply can not keep increasing monotonically forever").<br /><br />Like some others here, when the next fifty percent decline hits (and it is coming, whether it starts next week, next month, next year, or sometime in the next decade), I am more interested in capturing the last forty-five percent rather than the first five percent. The movements you are trying to capture make up the most difficult type of trading, and I am suitably impressed with your success at it. You are going to be wrong a lot ("being early is being wrong"), but while I am not quite ready to put on a significant short position, I don't think there is much risk of a spike higher from here (is there any possible good news not already priced in?), and expect to see a decent payoff for your fortitude (most likely this year).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86444108914845689082017-01-12T17:55:30.708+00:002017-01-12T17:55:30.708+00:00can anyone tell me where I can find MM on Bloomber...can anyone tell me where I can find MM on Bloomberg? i sent him an Email but he didn't reply...hennerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15381506750678483901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65542565125475504912017-01-12T17:37:58.112+00:002017-01-12T17:37:58.112+00:00i am pleased to see that Italy and its banks are o...i am pleased to see that Italy and its banks are once again back to facing reality, and facts<br /><br />'follow your shot', as Navy seals friends sayNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43124932703058999832017-01-12T15:42:31.722+00:002017-01-12T15:42:31.722+00:00long R2K?
Bueller , Bueller, anyone, Bueller ?long R2K?<br /><br />Bueller , Bueller, anyone, Bueller ?Rosscohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18218092677103028057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85628218344701670402017-01-12T15:13:11.922+00:002017-01-12T15:13:11.922+00:00WIle E Coyote just looked down. WIle E Coyote just looked down. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17257014464587270262017-01-12T15:09:30.857+00:002017-01-12T15:09:30.857+00:00So I unload our fund's holdings at the open an...So I unload our fund's holdings at the open and then this happens...12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21533957706179866802017-01-12T09:52:26.602+00:002017-01-12T09:52:26.602+00:00you damm right they willyou damm right they willNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60462284245809564212017-01-12T09:05:26.075+00:002017-01-12T09:05:26.075+00:00Sterling thoughts.
The harder the EU policy on Bre...Sterling thoughts.<br />The harder the EU policy on Brexit then following Action and Reaction wouldn't you expect the UK govt to become increasingly Corporate friendly? Think corporate tax level.<br />2016/17 corporate tax is approx. 6% of tax revenues vis a vis approx. 17% attributable to VAT. What would Vat have to become to soak up incremental decreases in corp tax rate?<br />Social (inflationary) impact on poorer parts of society what would personal taxation levels have to be to offset inflationary impact of policy and make friendly corporate tax rate financially neutral?<br />Goals to make the tax rate increase inward investment flows over and above the losses attributable to EU brexit policy.<br />Given that I think medium term the economic outcome of Brexit is basically zero sum as players (winners and losers) close out economic opportunities I think something like the above policy is very doable which makes me think WTF short sterling.<br />Just musings , but why wouldn't a UK govt play the nuke tax rate weapon of potentially zero corporate tax rate if pushed to it?checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42542212472935465172017-01-12T08:00:51.121+00:002017-01-12T08:00:51.121+00:00When in doubt earnings ,earnings ,earnings. Strong...When in doubt earnings ,earnings ,earnings. Strong dollar and earnings the theme tune won't be Jackie Wilsons theme tune. Trump that. Meanwhile Scotty to Bridge 'Cap'n we're down to 25% power and we canna make warp drive'.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3188673592282684532017-01-12T06:55:35.638+00:002017-01-12T06:55:35.638+00:00apologies for bringing a short seller and ZH but C...apologies for bringing a short seller and ZH but Chanos' thoughts are worth a read<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-11/chanos-fears-trumps-unmet-expectations-warns-investors-rethink-almost-everything-you?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34268395463018354652017-01-11T23:19:24.911+00:002017-01-11T23:19:24.911+00:00Unknown.. you got the startrek but I thought the m...Unknown.. you got the startrek but I thought the mork n mindy ref more telling! <br /><br />Nanu Nanu..Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65288641998322195782017-01-11T23:04:12.340+00:002017-01-11T23:04:12.340+00:00@ Unknown and 12yo
You guys are way more fun than...@ Unknown and 12yo<br /><br />You guys are way more fun than any press conference - and yes, indeed, I do believe you have given away your true (not at heart) age, 12yo.<br /><br />beam me up, scotty (in 4 years, thank you).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91577634025766734802017-01-11T21:51:51.049+00:002017-01-11T21:51:51.049+00:00https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKQD_cKEICk
https:...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKQD_cKEICk<br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vqpzk-qGxMU<br /><br />that Trump bashing CNN is music to the ears<br /><br />go to see you back 12yo HFMNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24865447602264447352017-01-11T21:32:43.749+00:002017-01-11T21:32:43.749+00:00Unknown - Please... next you're gonna say I...Unknown - Please... next you're gonna say I'm not really running a billion dollar Hedge Fund from my bedroom with annual returns in excess of 200% pa.<br /><br />Haters gonna hate :)12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29594677188734468022017-01-11T21:26:51.277+00:002017-01-11T21:26:51.277+00:00There's no way you're really 12 years old ...There's no way you're really 12 years old if you're quoting Starship.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08951375217497888943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9739061258257398882017-01-11T21:19:55.310+00:002017-01-11T21:19:55.310+00:00PM Report: Stardate 20170111:
As our spaceship li...PM Report: Stardate 20170111:<br /><br />As our spaceship lifts off for Nico's aptly named "leap to the moon" (powered by 'Fed-rocket-fuel' & algorithmic robots), we find ourselves heading up thru the stratosphere toward Dow20K, our course set to "Infinity and beyond". With these current endless-bid tail winds, I estimate our arrival at Infinity in Q4 2017 or soon after - either way, for this Starship, "nothing's gonna stop us now".<br /><br />Mood is currently good on the bridge of our ship, & volatility has returned courtesy of our soon-to-be Supreme Leader. Whilst the ship is overweight long equities, we're confident that we can reach warp-speed and enter tripe-digit-returns. <br /><br />Live long & prosper.12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70326556865096315332017-01-11T21:05:03.928+00:002017-01-11T21:05:03.928+00:00Suppose it was naïve to think the market would be ...Suppose it was naïve to think the market would be allowed to break lower the day of Trump's first presser, regardless of what he said. Corporate managements and Wall Street are generally Republican, so there may have been some plunge protection at work.<br />We'll see whether a break comes in the next days. Nothing to say it has to and local markets rallied well beyond inaugurations of other populist leaders like Modi and Duterte.<br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2657930384385445632017-01-11T20:58:56.076+00:002017-01-11T20:58:56.076+00:00Rossco: "The high yield ETF has failed to tak...Rossco: "The high yield ETF has failed to take out the October high twice now on waning momentum."<br /><br />I'm assuming this is looking at the price without adjusting history for dividends (they {HYG,JNK} are well above Oct. highs adjusting for dividends). I see lots of people looking at charts this way - why? It's never made any sense to me.<br /><br />Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.com