tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5970814599054535344..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Stopfest City LimitsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41062857691218162282012-04-07T22:41:14.317+01:002012-04-07T22:41:14.317+01:00Right Field - what part of the market was ignoring...Right Field - what part of the market was ignoring it? You could start with investors in banks. In the week since Mar 30...<br /><br />dbk -5.80%<br />bbv -6.10%<br />san -6.20%<br />isp -7.50%<br />bnp -7.60%<br />gie -7.90%<br />cbk -7.90%<br />aca -10.70%<br />ucg -12.00%<br /><br />BBVA+SAN outperformed the rest by 2.3%.<br /><br />And since the short sale ban you refer to was lifted mid-Feb...<br /><br />dbk 3.93%<br />bnp -10.85%<br />san -15.60%<br />gle -15.78%<br />cbk -15.87%<br />aca -18.59%<br />bbv -18.70%<br />isp -19.48%<br />ucg -21.56%<br /><br />Hardly conclusive of anything.<br /><br />Rajoy's deficit announcement gave the noise-o-sphere something to point itself at, but it's really Italy that's in the crosshairs. Their 2-yr now yielding 30 over the Spain equivalent. The Spain 10 - not particularly a bellwether for a crisis that's happening now - is mostly telling the tesoro that they can't count on cheaply pushing the roll out into the distant future as they have been since the new year.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48740629861803038642012-04-06T02:02:11.957+01:002012-04-06T02:02:11.957+01:00Japan forces through its budget. Doubling their sa...<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17620751" rel="nofollow">Japan forces through its budget</a>. Doubling their sales tax and still funding 49% from new borrowing. How much longer can they get away with this?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45059676590205367452012-04-06T01:56:54.669+01:002012-04-06T01:56:54.669+01:00Who would set their EUR.CHF stop at 1.1999? Surely...Who would set their EUR.CHF stop at 1.1999? Surely you'd allow a little slippage, to say 1.198.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37366534693066302282012-04-06T00:45:56.085+01:002012-04-06T00:45:56.085+01:00Anon -- regarding your comment "the pain in S...Anon -- regarding your comment "the pain in Spain must have been the most well-observed but ignored event ever."<br /><br />Spain Ibex is -10% YTD and was -5% this week. Relative to the DAX, Ibex is u/p by -25% YTD. Reminder, you can not short sell Spanish Financials so this was long selling, i.e. real money must have even been observing as no professional is long this market. In Fixed Income, the 10-yr is 8 handles off the LTRO highs, retraced almost 50% of the last 6-month range and saw a significant yield adjustment this week alone.<br /><br />This caused DAX and Eu Fins (SX7P) to be liquidated. The EUR even reacted and Bunds made new highs in price.<br /><br />Just curious what part of the market was ignoring it? My point is that something was discounted this week for sure....Right Fieldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50350065413282983382012-04-05T16:45:40.748+01:002012-04-05T16:45:40.748+01:00Yeah, I reckon the bears have already killed the s...Yeah, I reckon the bears have already killed the slowest walrus in this raid. So it's back to flat today. Who wants to wake up tomorrow with a short position and get a Stronger Than Expected number, then open Tuesday looking at spoos up ten or twenty?<br /><br />Right now if LB was going to make a short-term punt, fading the Long Weekend Safety Trade would be my best guess, in our case just hedging fixed income by shorting the long end.<br /><br />Time for a retreat to Ursine City. We'll be back, though, and with reinforcements. Hope all your bunnies are happy ones.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56792880337224626142012-04-05T15:05:28.463+01:002012-04-05T15:05:28.463+01:00Different styles for different tracks.
If your go...Different styles for different tracks.<br /><br />If your going to short, you only get a couple good chances in these markets...feel around the top, sell it hard when it breaks...theres no kid glove trades in this Yennish environment...unless your long.<br /><br />Now..begone TMM, I've couple extra days to find myself a zennie chick :)Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4941699276940956122012-04-05T13:08:52.426+01:002012-04-05T13:08:52.426+01:00excellent analogy of what happened this week! Also...excellent analogy of what happened this week! Also, the pain in Spain must have been the most well-observed but ignored event ever. Could only come into effect via your pair breaking scenarioAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com