tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post590160061512391133..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Using the F wordMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15522207534564788722013-02-16T04:37:03.115+00:002013-02-16T04:37:03.115+00:00:):)amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27328533736492844482013-02-15T19:43:07.199+00:002013-02-15T19:43:07.199+00:00WMT announcement in detail:
"The Sixpack Fam...WMT announcement in detail:<br /><br />"The Sixpack Family of Anytown, USA have just announced that they are a bit short of readies at the moment b/c they charged Christmas on the plastic and also they borrowed from Grammy and that nice Mr Rizzo who owns the pool hall and check cashing business by the station. Anyway they are currently paying it off so that Joe doesn't get his legs broken. <br /><br />Family wages and transfer payments are flat, taxes and gasoline are up, so they aren't buying much plastic stuff from China right now and are staying home instead to watch American Idol and Un-Likeing Mr Rizzo's nephew on FB".<br /><br />Anyway none of this should be of any concern to 15 y-o momo traders who are long FB and LNKD on margin in their parents basement in Parsippany.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17200894131315033762013-02-15T19:20:09.742+00:002013-02-15T19:20:09.742+00:00The "Great Rotation" may be running out ...The "Great Rotation" may be running out of steam for now, and according to the blogosphere, there may be few people left to sell bonds:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bofaml-survey-investors-not-long-bonds-2013-2" rel="nofollow"> No Living Investor Now Admits to being Long Bonds* </a><br /><br />Awareness of the Fed's concern about blowing asset bubbles has begun to percolate:<br /><br /><a href="http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/02/15/feds-like-a-cat-on-a-hot-qe-roof/" rel="nofollow"> Fed on a Hot Tin Roof </a><br /><br />* Actually we are betting PIMCO has some, and what's more we do too.<br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18723948446646776722013-02-15T16:14:52.442+00:002013-02-15T16:14:52.442+00:00Just to amplify my point, MBS are now at a 12-mont...Just to amplify my point, MBS are now at a 12-month low after the move up in rates. AGG at levels not seen since last April. LB suggests the credit market is not going to continue to move in this direction indefinitely, given the present state of the Fed balance sheet. <br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MBB:US/chart" rel="nofollow"> MBS At 12 Month Lows </a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AGG:US/chart" rel="nofollow"> AGG at April 2012 Levels </a><br /><br />Might be time for some of the more conservative investors to take another look at fixed income? The longer the equity market grinds sideways at these nose bleed valuations, the more attractive the yield on bonds begins to look.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42447056411079578622013-02-15T15:52:16.099+00:002013-02-15T15:52:16.099+00:00We are definitely thinking counter-trend move in b...We are definitely thinking counter-trend move in bonds today. If nothing else operates, the old pre-long 3-day holiday weekend safety trade has been on my mind. Complacency is rife, but......<br /><br />Not sure if anyone is listening but the FOMC is sending a message, Bullard and Pianalto both have made statements that QE(infinity) could end before December, but so far Mr Market isn't listening, probably has the volume up on his iPod. Right now he is probably focused on "earnings, fundamentals and the Improving Economy". But the fact is, this is a liquidity-driven market.<br /><br />We all know the adage "Don't Fight The Fed", but if you think about the Fed's current role as the world's largest hedge fund and think about what is on its book, The Bernank is long Treasuries and MBS. The Fed is not long LNKD and FB. So the rotation from bonds to equities was a good thing for confidence in the short term but in the medium term this isn't really in the interests of the Fed, and a large yield spike would be quite uncomfortable. We are seeing a liquidity-driven mini-bubble in equities and I think the Fed will move to burst this before it gets very much larger. Look for more Fed speak in the days and weeks ahead.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44809647155007236202013-02-13T12:06:26.027+00:002013-02-13T12:06:26.027+00:00Markets have been known to pivot around:
1) Long ...Markets have been known to pivot around:<br /><br />1) Long bond auction Thursdays<br />2) Monthly options expiration<br />3) US 3-day holiday weekends<br /><br />All three ahead of us here. Caution...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91737508190601097062013-02-12T15:14:36.835+00:002013-02-12T15:14:36.835+00:00FX is always critical.
AUDUSD clearly bearish. EU...FX is always critical.<br /><br />AUDUSD clearly bearish. EURUSD decidedly dodgy. EURJPY rolling over finally? It's only a matter of time before equities catch up to reality.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37099170270786042442013-02-12T14:11:19.677+00:002013-02-12T14:11:19.677+00:00U.S. Investors: Meet Your New Central Banker … Chi...U.S. Investors: Meet Your New Central Banker … China!<br />-The Influence Of China’s Economy On U.S. Inflation Trends At Historical Highs<br />-China PMI Highest In 24 Months … Set To Hit U.S. Inflation In Coming Quarters<br />-Rise In U.S. CPI To Weigh On Consumer Confidence, Housing Recovery, Etc.abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19770529031538179852013-02-12T12:57:18.297+00:002013-02-12T12:57:18.297+00:00-- Here again...some thoughts...watching this mark...-- Here again...some thoughts...watching this market from the sidelines is similar to watching an Iranian 80's movie where it's interspersed with playbacks in time to reality...<br /><br />Every Qe cycle is unique is it not, so far in Qe 3 we're had the initial burst out the barriers... taking a step back into reality and delving into previous Qe cycles to this one one should compare the following variables<br /><br />-Macro Data- <br />-Valuations<br />-Sentiment<br />-Credit<br />-CB<br />-FX<br /><br />The currency market is key this time around.<br /><br />- Some folks may feel that I'm over-reaching within the Qe matrix....yes ,there's two sides to a coin, but we think while Qe is abound it's a two sided one sided coin....and this movie could go on and on and on..we really don't care anymore, we do appreciate the informative prose each time we read inbetween the lines of market reports, newspaper columns and magazine articles , but sitting here watching another Qe cycle is the equivalent of being that one actor that through space-time knows the reality of events that produced the cause-effect that leads to the switch to reality once again....and there you have it...the market just keeps looping back till it doesn't give fuck anymore!...I think I'm there.amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21342183383233891102013-02-12T12:39:30.276+00:002013-02-12T12:39:30.276+00:00This is too good to be missed:
Gordon Chang appea...This is too good to be missed:<br /><br />Gordon Chang appeared on CNBC on Friday, noting the troubling difference between exports reported by China to other countries and imports reported by other countries from China, as well as the inconsistency between low cargo numbers and high reported export numbers. In response, the CNBC anchor said – and I am not making this up – “You know Gordon, I agree with you, but let me take a different tack on this, alright? Let’s say you believe that China is making up the numbers. But if the stock market there keeps going up because of it, and you believe the government will keep priming the numbers, isn’t that sort of a reason to bet on the Chinese stock market?”<br /><br />EddieAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16986640915581135272013-02-11T18:15:13.537+00:002013-02-11T18:15:13.537+00:00Treasury markets are ripe for a little squeeze:
...Treasury markets are ripe for a little squeeze:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shorts-on-treasurys-double-in-three-weeks-2013-02-11?link=MW_home_latest_news" rel="nofollow"> Shorts on Treasurys Double </a><br /><br />Everyone is now positioned for the breakout move to a sustained level above 2%. We'll get it, of course - but perhaps not here.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81294153513344653242013-02-11T18:04:39.015+00:002013-02-11T18:04:39.015+00:00Polemic for Pope?Polemic for Pope?Phallus Majorusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12419729127791024812013-02-11T11:58:46.820+00:002013-02-11T11:58:46.820+00:00C Says
Time to let the 'stuff' out of the ...C Says<br />Time to let the 'stuff' out of the portfolio this morning.Very empty in there and given cash seems to have a terrible reputation I must be getting poorer as the hours pass.yet on balance the $ looks like it may be ready to reset and if it does then the 'stuff' will give back the gains YTD,or most of them. Think I will go with the Chinese and have a temporary party.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71729287361351619222013-02-08T21:51:58.243+00:002013-02-08T21:51:58.243+00:00always = recently. Nickalways = recently. NickAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60687752144663301432013-02-08T21:50:58.013+00:002013-02-08T21:50:58.013+00:00A bit of a lost week. US is strong relative to the...A bit of a lost week. US is strong relative to the rest of the world as is always the case before a decent move down. Agriculture is looking very interesting. I wonder if some day in the near future China would start trading soybeans with Brazil in CNY. NickAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28038907165638262572013-02-08T13:59:08.543+00:002013-02-08T13:59:08.543+00:00I thought the f word was fundamentals.
I thought the f word was fundamentals.<br /><br />Coreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61291087361332315592013-02-08T12:55:30.122+00:002013-02-08T12:55:30.122+00:00evans is a moron of galatical proportions. all t...evans is a moron of galatical proportions. all the eccles denizens are addled with "post hoc ergo propeter hoc"livianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27902376738809963302013-02-08T12:08:15.915+00:002013-02-08T12:08:15.915+00:00> Yin and Yang <
Pol, soon as you conceptua...> Yin and Yang <<br /><br />Pol, soon as you conceptualize it, you lose it!<br /><br />Now, back to books..amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.com