tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5828167161361380698..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Taking stock of equitiesMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14227791535022817222015-09-08T14:55:28.440+01:002015-09-08T14:55:28.440+01:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18262315848179799521noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21304219254764910702015-09-03T20:22:48.601+01:002015-09-03T20:22:48.601+01:00 Locking in 6-7% dividend yields under conditions ... Locking in 6-7% dividend yields under conditions of monetary easing in the EZ has an undeniable appeal.<br /><br />My Thoughts exactly, but no garbage, want some Semiconductors for just a bit less than that though.<br /><br />that, and a Bund puke.rpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35404228325571851522015-09-03T16:03:24.716+01:002015-09-03T16:03:24.716+01:00I sure hear you LB on the low hanging dividend fru...I sure hear you LB on the low hanging dividend fruit. I just dont see how far down the gutter markets will sell off yields like that, and i am seeing more and more individual securities like that. Perhaps if eco numbers really start to turn and ppl get worried about defaults etc, but the name of the game is still financial repression, IMO<br /><br />sure risk assets need to reprice every-once in a while, but until this financial market sell-off starts effecting the real economy you have to be constructive. I do leave open the possibility of a feedback loop where markets drive corporate sentiment and thus cause some sort of small recession but it would be much easier to make that argument if there were some signs of inflation and thus too much inventory and capacity build. It seems like we are going to have to use a new playbook if that is the case. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51614584498289903672015-09-03T16:00:22.319+01:002015-09-03T16:00:22.319+01:00So: the ECB left interest rates unchanged, Draghi ...So: the ECB left interest rates unchanged, Draghi talked down the euro, the BOJ sold yen & bought equities, and stocks went up (Dax +300pts on the day). In other words, it's been like every other ECB presser day for the past 6 years.<br /><br />Do remind me not to JBTFD, and not make in excess of +1% for a single day's return. Thank you.<br /><br />Ghost of FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65933495340434534762015-09-03T15:46:01.952+01:002015-09-03T15:46:01.952+01:00NFP BIngo is now officially Open. Eyes Down.... we...NFP BIngo is now officially Open. Eyes Down.... we are going with a luke warm 205k this time.<br /><br />It seems to LB that USDJPY positioning will be weighted in favor of a strong number, and that a <175k number might lead to some selling of USD and Spoos. The Goldilocks zone (175-225k) doesn't seem likely to move the needle much. An unusually strong number would presumably see a renewal of USD strength and commodity weakness. All things considered, with the jobs number tomorrow before a 3 day US holiday weekend we might see profit taking and position squaring begin this afternoon.<br /><br />One can't escape the feeling that (at least) one more dump of equities remains ahead of us before the pre-FOMC chop ends and the next month or two of trading begins. We still like to JBTFDump in Europe as our main strategy, however lacking in nuance though that may be. Locking in 6-7% dividend yields under conditions of monetary easing in the EZ has an undeniable appeal.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29604336171866682782015-09-03T14:23:35.091+01:002015-09-03T14:23:35.091+01:00Steen echoes LB:
https://www.tradingfloor.com/imag...Steen echoes LB:<br />https://www.tradingfloor.com/images/article/max608w/ec1920c5-9a3d-4142-9eae-e3626aebce9c.png<br /><br />https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/steens-chronicle-the-old-and-the-new-economic-order-6153337Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84228232895456739492015-09-03T07:38:43.871+01:002015-09-03T07:38:43.871+01:00@Anon 5:54 Amen.
JBTFD forever.
It is that simpl...@Anon 5:54 Amen. <br /><br />JBTFD forever.<br />It is that simple.<br /><br />When Central Banks push the SP500 up 1% in the last 30 mins of yesterday's US session, you know this game is far from over.Ghost of FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91705467448074802222015-09-03T05:54:09.560+01:002015-09-03T05:54:09.560+01:00In funnymoney we trustIn funnymoney we trustAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13930339257202191512015-09-03T04:47:53.160+01:002015-09-03T04:47:53.160+01:00Interesting point re the decline in earnings estim...Interesting point re the decline in earnings estimates a year prior to the 2008 debacle. My guess, is that this time, after the above mentioned period of low vol, and elevated valuations, scrutiny of the market will be swifter. While being relatively optimistic on the US economic outlook, I'm quite sure there will be a notable corporate earnings recession in the US. USD strength alone will cause sales misses and gross margin pressure. Some of these catalysts are happening in real time (see BRL). Reduced estimates, with China recession in the backdrop, is likely enough to send the SPX to 1,800 between now and year-end. That will be a much better entry point for equities - though it won't feel very good at the time.Crackerjack Financehttp://www.crackerjackfinance.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60109345863986419942015-09-02T22:15:16.967+01:002015-09-02T22:15:16.967+01:00PBoC is a mook
Bloomberg is for mooks, and know-n...PBoC is a mook<br /><br />Bloomberg is for mooks, and know-nothing sales mooks.<br /><br />What is the 2 minute macro for NFP? My thinking is 1998 mode, but not committing to equities until the fat end of October is out of the way.rpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3278243586023470322015-09-02T22:10:57.329+01:002015-09-02T22:10:57.329+01:00hmm, this is an addictive site any day, rich in de...hmm, this is an addictive site any day, rich in details.Dependablehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05546060154693905327noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48887694291178174932015-09-02T21:38:02.152+01:002015-09-02T21:38:02.152+01:00The PBoC bought $50bn of US equities on the close....The PBoC bought $50bn of US equities on the close.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59580426261840620682015-09-02T21:04:51.963+01:002015-09-02T21:04:51.963+01:00A nice retest with a BTFD outcome. A fed meeting ...A nice retest with a BTFD outcome. A fed meeting thats shaping up as a no-downside event, a hammering out of commodity downside, a firming of EM. FI is just fine. I dunno, this may not be an oct-14 V but its looking more and more like a good clean rotation than the start of something more. The mythical fall flow cavalry will show up soon enough.<br /><br />Put me in the camp that buying here and now across the board, but particularly in the commodity and financials will produce good returns in year end.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47701388525559216332015-09-02T20:13:44.719+01:002015-09-02T20:13:44.719+01:00@Leftback 7:21 pm
FT: if you look closely at corre...@Leftback 7:21 pm<br />FT: if you look closely at correlation, there is a feeling of some change in the air....<br />For example: today, precious metals went down when equities broke and silver went back up with equities....<br />could we revert to a pre 2007 correlation regime? absolutely<br />Spot onAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20907955132556392272015-09-02T19:21:09.705+01:002015-09-02T19:21:09.705+01:00If MM and LB were in a NYC bar eyeing the assemble...If MM and LB were in a NYC bar eyeing the assembled talent (purely out of academic interest), LB would definitely prefer the sleek Europeans on display, with Ms. Spoos still looking a tad unattractive on a valuation basis at these price levels. A case of "don't fancy yours, mate" for the time being, MM. Regrettable also that the Brazilian fits into this category at the moment.<br /><br />One wonders if yet another Goldilocks jobs number on Friday will release some of the fear of the Fed, although our feeling is that the Fed's 25bp rate hike has had very little to do with the recent market action, and that the US continues on its 2.0-2.5% growth trajectory almost irrespective of central bank gyrations here and elsewhere. Another limited bout of USDJPY carry trade unwind would seem possible, should the payrolls number disappoint, but a shocking number seems unlikely. We are tempted to remain hammock-bound other than our enthusiasm for things European.<br /><br />At some point, hike or no hike, there is the possibility of FX regime change ahead, where the dollar turns down on the quite reasonable expectation of no further tightening and the (Buy USD, Spoos; Sell Yen) trade that has dominated for so long is replaced by the older more familiar theme (Sell USD, Buy commodities, energy, EMs, PMs and FX). The switch may be closer than we think, and will likely drive some nice gains for smart punters in Q4.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83407149497608071542015-09-02T19:20:36.969+01:002015-09-02T19:20:36.969+01:00If EM FX and HY hold as equities retest last weeks...If EM FX and HY hold as equities retest last weeks lows, that would be a good sign<br /><br />Today you have a few different views of the world, IMO<br /><br />1) EM is over, too much debt, commodities are done, China is an accident that is now starting to happen. USD adjustment has only just begun to be felt worldwide<br /><br />2) The high yield market is warning of pending downturn. Rates need to go higher as marginal player is now a seller of ETFs<br /><br />3) US Equities are due for a large correction, stealth bear market with internals for past 6 months. Signs of excess (buybacks, mergers, MoMo stocks). Valuation here not compelling and earnings topped out<br /><br />4) US real economy is only just starting to get over GFC. Equities arent cheap but hey what else is there<br /><br />5) Too much global liquidity still, buy EU and Japan as they reflate. Dont fight FED (ECB, BOJ etf)<br /><br />6) Biotech revolution. Home Depot SSS are killing it. NFLX is a game changer. Just buy<br /><br /><br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2884935741294381182015-09-02T15:28:15.799+01:002015-09-02T15:28:15.799+01:00Wonder how much/if any of the vix inversion is due...Wonder how much/if any of the vix inversion is due to the VXX ETFs buying futures?Coreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11035976795340631202015-09-02T15:05:48.005+01:002015-09-02T15:05:48.005+01:00Sorry, second line "shale hit the slack"...Sorry, second line "shale hit the slack"Skippyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06275240695552646022noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17437948191512158812015-09-02T15:04:42.179+01:002015-09-02T15:04:42.179+01:00This one was inspired after the brief rally in oil...This one was inspired after the brief rally in oil before yesterday's price action. With apologies to ACDC<br /><br />Back in Black <br />Shale it the slack <br />Oil's been down to long, <br />it's bound to bounce back <br />Yes, OPEC's let loose <br />From the noose <br />That's kept shale from hanging around <br />Shale's been looking at the sky <br />'Cause it's getting real high <br />Forget the hearse, 'cause it will never die <br />It's got nine lives <br />Cat's eyes <br />Abusing every one of them <br />and producing high <br /><br />'Cause oil's back <br />Yes, oil's back<br />well, oil's back <br />Yes, oil's back <br />Well, oil's back, back <br />Well oil's back in black <br />Yes' oil's back in black Skippyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06275240695552646022noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87016980669589935212015-09-02T14:41:07.550+01:002015-09-02T14:41:07.550+01:00The break of the primary up trend in the Spooz doe...The break of the primary up trend in the Spooz does suggest a change in trend. I guess the key question is whether it is more like 1998 or 2011, or something more sinister? <br /><br />I agree that many of the facts in the US - service sector, housing, employment - suggest boom, not doom. But the manufacturing and global trade data might be consistent with a material cyclical slowdown in profits. Indeed, US forward earnings are now falling in year on year terms. That said, the point about the level or earnings integer is well taken. I see it, the bearish China/EM cyclical view is the consensus belief. <br /><br />The 1998 or 2011 template (clearly material episodes for EM and commodities)would suggest more accommodative policy, rather than normalization, consistent with low inflation expectations. <br /><br />It is also the case that many of us still suffer from elevated risk perceptions as a legacy of the 2008 crisis. Put another way, that might explain why the equity risk premium is still elevated and why valuations have never re-rated above neutral (with a few exceptions like Biotech). <br /><br />My sense is that the odds probably favor a 2011 style correction. Therefore, I plan to add cyclical equity risk if we re-test the lows. Skippyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06275240695552646022noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91066493695168169462015-09-02T14:10:13.401+01:002015-09-02T14:10:13.401+01:00The real story with equities, at least in the US, ...The real story with equities, at least in the US, is the carnage underneath the headline index levels. Just did a quick screen and about 216 stocks in the S&P are already down >20% from their 52week highs. Only 21% of stocks are above their 200day avg. This has been a narrow market for a while. <br /><br />So while I am pretty confused at the moment and dont have a great deal of clarity, you could easily have the main market go back up with a large internal rotation.<br /><br />In that sense, Stoxx 600 down 15% from the highs is more interesting to me vs S&P down 10%abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76733285485643341052015-09-02T13:56:11.736+01:002015-09-02T13:56:11.736+01:00@macroman: that's exactly my argument. If on d...@macroman: that's exactly my argument. If on does not take the view of a stronger currency unravelling the EPS story, there is loads of opportunity in Europe. Again, same starting point as before QE was announced.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7453863323004444562015-09-02T13:54:38.526+01:002015-09-02T13:54:38.526+01:00FT: Morgan Stanley issued an "all clear"...FT: Morgan Stanley issued an "all clear" to get long equities, based on their (pretty good) proprietary model (last 2 calls were get short in june 2007 an get long in 2009)<br /><br />Bill Gross says go into short dated treasuries and cash....<br /><br />I say: the new longs will get slaughtered within 4 weeks and DM equities will rise like the phenix from its ashes starting in October.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30644566580210013222015-09-02T13:13:23.417+01:002015-09-02T13:13:23.417+01:00You saw that trend , Macro Man, in commodities...o...You saw that trend , Macro Man, in commodities...oh yes, Macro Man...the smart money knows if you want this market to meet earnings you gotta let it run where wants , when it wants...fuck day trading , only on plunge days.amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34033903728767372212015-09-02T11:33:08.870+01:002015-09-02T11:33:08.870+01:00Funny, I thought US markets were pricing in a stro...Funny, I thought US markets were pricing in a stronger dollar! ;) I'd be somewhat loathe to ascribe European equities pricing in much by way of a currency view that counters the prevailing trend; rather, it seems to me that the market got caught a bit over its skis in terms of positioning and has thus been punished, hence the low P/E's.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.com