tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5816989394711404813..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Mark to Market - 2012 EditionMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14303253087605859792013-01-14T12:13:15.521+00:002013-01-14T12:13:15.521+00:00Happy new year to all...very informative post.than...Happy new year to all...very informative post.thanks for posting!!<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://prowealth.in/online-trading.htm" rel="nofollow">motilal oswal online trading</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04768923196684539724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46309059018272025252013-01-05T12:36:42.788+00:002013-01-05T12:36:42.788+00:00C Says'
This isn't the typical 'inflat...C Says'<br />This isn't the typical 'inflation scare' QE RORO move,because the associated stuff that should move didn't.<br />Appears to me allocations finally decided we might have sufficient growth that neither govt debt safe haven ,or goldbug haven, are 1st choice ROROs anymore. <br />I'd explore why they might now actually be about to be wrong going forward.<br />Prior inflation scares tended to zero in on input costs attributable to everything ,but labour. Little tag on personal incomes might now tell us that the so called output gap holding down labour costs is not has wide as we thought.<br />How can that be with unemployment so high?<br />It can be because growth is now attributable to areas where unemployment constraints apply. <br />To get this we need to consider how in the much of the West we have over two decades driven ourselves in certain directions. That is away from Engineering/Science/Tech and twoards Economics/Finance/Social in the education sysem and thence into career paths.<br />I nod the head therefore to thge cause and effect of this long run trend being that we have created a higher level of structural unemployment tha historically was the case. Yes,we may have high unemployment,but many of them are actually irrelevant interms of employment/labour cost constraints because they are actually unsuited the type of employment areas where growth is going to happen.<br /><br />The conclusion that I am building towards is that personal incomes and rising labour costs should be the focus of interest,becuase unemployment levels are going to lag when it comes to identifying where the next pressures are going to build.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41547044692016758962013-01-05T01:04:01.270+00:002013-01-05T01:04:01.270+00:00I'll let you decide over the weekend..I'll let you decide over the weekend..amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44139976471010459992013-01-04T21:21:18.052+00:002013-01-04T21:21:18.052+00:00LB"s Non-Prediction #1:
The Market will not ...LB"s Non-Prediction #1:<br /><br />The Market will not rally 4.5% every week in 2013. <br /><br />Sometimes when you are BOLIVIAN, and have a really large directional trade on, you can be quietly emotionless when it is going against you, completely fearless while it is going in your favour, but then the minute you take it off, you start shaking like a leaf after considering the risks.... <br /><br />If ever there was a day to take a bit off, this was it.... LB wonders if others can relate....?<br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91504432822372326142013-01-04T15:43:32.563+00:002013-01-04T15:43:32.563+00:00Getting to Canary Wharf was generally fine....FYIGetting to Canary Wharf was generally fine....FYImaximmnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10195853421182900042013-01-04T14:38:31.420+00:002013-01-04T14:38:31.420+00:00Goldilocks jobs number, 155k. Markets will slumber...Goldilocks jobs number, 155k. Markets will slumber?<br /><br />Not a bad thing, it's been madness the last few days, but generally in a good way for a change.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86160087717654463922013-01-04T13:50:12.118+00:002013-01-04T13:50:12.118+00:00here are a couple of my macro trades for 2013.
A...here are a couple of my macro trades for 2013. <br /><br />AUD goes no where<br /><br />Gold drops below 1600 ends year down less than 10%<br /><br />EU Equities outperform<br /><br />MXN continues to strengthen<br /><br />Copper drops near year end ending down on the yearabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69395818712010594922013-01-04T10:00:47.036+00:002013-01-04T10:00:47.036+00:00C Says'
As the week closes I think we are at a...C Says'<br />As the week closes I think we are at a great juncture to consider macro in terms of the worlds major economies.<br />For some reason I keep coming back to an issue I made quite some time back. What would the world look like IF the US$ goes strong on the back of better control over energy,labour market flexibility,relatively cheap housing benefitting consumers;growth;global rebalancing and so forth ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72231845698452707842013-01-04T07:37:44.441+00:002013-01-04T07:37:44.441+00:00Happy new year gentlemen !
EddieHappy new year gentlemen !<br /><br />EddieAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39454500420432148002013-01-03T21:01:45.112+00:002013-01-03T21:01:45.112+00:00http://signalpursuit.wordpress.comhttp://signalpursuit.wordpress.comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35561644668877119202013-01-03T20:41:00.611+00:002013-01-03T20:41:00.611+00:00LB thinks they may have more than ants in their pa...LB thinks they may have more than ants in their pants tomorrow if we get a robust jobs number.<br /><br />Steepeners are always enjoyable....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4920521703283124192013-01-03T19:58:05.012+00:002013-01-03T19:58:05.012+00:00Nice ace up the Beard's sleeve. Brilliant timi...Nice ace up the Beard's sleeve. Brilliant timing as well (wink wink), if you think of comments earlier in this space about 'solving fiscal issues with monetary solutions'<br /><br />Now, call me obsessed but I'll ask again. How large a move in the belly and at the back end of the curve before those holders of 2% 'blue chip' coupons start having ants in their pants?<br /><br />Also, a nice reminder that there is a very helpful USD component to that USDJPY back to century theme.<br /><br />- DDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73070349474643401362013-01-03T19:25:41.887+00:002013-01-03T19:25:41.887+00:00One indicator of a pick up in US small business:
...One indicator of a pick up in US small business:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/1/3/ford-f-series-truck-sales-highest-since-2007.html" rel="nofollow"> F Series Truck Sales </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49606880819455767662013-01-03T19:11:08.083+00:002013-01-03T19:11:08.083+00:00WOW. Didn't expect this so soon.
Fed Expects...WOW. Didn't expect this so soon.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-expects-bond-buying-to-end-in-2013-2013-01-03-149105?link=MW_latest_news" rel="nofollow"> Fed Expects Bond Buying to End in 2013 </a><br /><br />That upset the apple car today. Not for us, though, we are short the long bond. Smirk...<br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53963987754875706812013-01-03T18:38:59.849+00:002013-01-03T18:38:59.849+00:00Welcome back, TMM. A Happy New Year to all of our ...Welcome back, TMM. A Happy New Year to all of our occasional Roman visitors as well.<br /><br />The non-death of Spanish banking continues.... not only were Spanish 10s briefly trading below 5.00% today but BBVA successfully sold €1.5B of 5 year paper, and deposits at Spanish banks are finally rising as some of the capital flight to other EU countries has reversed.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-03/spain-deposits-rose-in-november-easing-pressure-on-bank-funding.html" rel="nofollow"> Spanish Bank Deposits Rise </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35323102817381541422013-01-03T18:32:11.309+00:002013-01-03T18:32:11.309+00:00Snobi Brits!Snobi Brits!Phallus Majorusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60371983074039464062013-01-03T18:30:46.352+00:002013-01-03T18:30:46.352+00:00jack bonejack bonemarcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.com