tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5783234708743713696..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Crude breaks the pincersMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71238421179065338872015-10-08T06:46:32.577+01:002015-10-08T06:46:32.577+01:00Thanks LB, that kind of confirms my own view. Same...Thanks LB, that kind of confirms my own view. Same thing with the bund. I think inflation is going up, but right now, the spectre of deflation continues to weigh on it. Q1 could be interesting for bonds, though, if the reflation train gathers pace. You did see "Unstoppable", right ;). Will next year finally be the year the "steepener brigrade" is right, or will the curve just flatten. Not easy to tell that one! <br /><br />I completely agree that the absence of a taper tantrum alone should be enough to get the ball rolling on yield chasing. All we need is a hapless Fed, and that seems to be a guarantee. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12488188700255258892015-10-08T00:22:47.969+01:002015-10-08T00:22:47.969+01:00Unreal. MSF to US: How come you blow up so many ...Unreal. MSF to US: How come you blow up so many of our hospitals?Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8716410468609682812015-10-07T23:13:21.732+01:002015-10-07T23:13:21.732+01:00Quality, my dear.
The Talibans also drove them!
...Quality, my dear.<br /><br />The Talibans also drove them!<br /><br />http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-to-toyota-how-come-isis-drives-so-many-of-your-trucks-2015-10-07Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1866338953887404462015-10-07T22:43:49.318+01:002015-10-07T22:43:49.318+01:00Sell..the volume bar.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc...Sell..the volume bar.<br /><br />http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$wtic&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p41298869661rivernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56083685942353523932015-10-07T21:35:31.552+01:002015-10-07T21:35:31.552+01:00Indeed washed, Remarkable the level it closed at h...Indeed washed, Remarkable the level it closed at huh? Whowuddathoughtit .. 1995. <br /><br />Btw .. this captcha thing is going mad to post a comment - 'identify the construction machinery"? Yes, that's what I had to do. What's next "identify the levorotatory isomers"?. <br /><br />Couldn't they put this to some use with 'identify your friends that are avoiding tax' or some such?Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73889236672379370132015-10-07T21:27:06.330+01:002015-10-07T21:27:06.330+01:00What do you see when you look at silver? What do you see when you look at silver? Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16464680981298776826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5067325803952243242015-10-07T21:19:23.887+01:002015-10-07T21:19:23.887+01:00hmm DB....not going to help my eu longs....dont kn...hmm DB....not going to help my eu longs....dont know why i bother with this eustoxx...take a hit in oils, autos, banks ( again!!!)<br /><br />anyway...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68801166114020265542015-10-07T21:09:38.889+01:002015-10-07T21:09:38.889+01:00There u go Pol - the battle of 1995 ended with a p...There u go Pol - the battle of 1995 ended with a push - so the fate of the $25 TN US equity market rests in the hands of Shanghai when it opens tomorrow - you could argue they have some catching up to do for the last few days, or you could argue its a basket case wrapped in rotting offal sprayed with skunk juice, and will open limit down, reducing its own market cap by $100 BN, and the rest of the world's by $1 TN.<br /><br />How so comforting - the only way things could get more idiotic would be if they stayed the same.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44271678312645713502015-10-07T20:44:08.113+01:002015-10-07T20:44:08.113+01:00Anon 8.20 - not sure that anyone is trading near e...Anon 8.20 - not sure that anyone is trading near end on that far forward supply concerns. they cant even make their minds p on short term data. EIA data came out today with a rip roaring +3m build and yes it has tipped things lower but the market has been ignoring fundamentals for a while so why stop now. I m still thinking this is short covering in oil too driven by price, rates and kicked off by a thought ( false in my eyes) that Russia in Syria is going to cut off supply somewhere soon. <br /><br />Actually the trigger for this rally was GS calling $20 bucks again 3 weeks ago, Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5229054527462095152015-10-07T20:20:06.039+01:002015-10-07T20:20:06.039+01:00Not to overlook that the "squeeze" highe...Not to overlook that the "squeeze" higher in crude may have something to do with the 15 to 26 billion barrels of oil taken out of projected future global supply when Shell through in the towel in the arctic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19905281754125654962015-10-07T19:36:51.038+01:002015-10-07T19:36:51.038+01:00The long bond.... a very good question, my friend....The long bond.... a very good question, my friend. <br /><br />LB will quote WB Yeats today: <br />"The best lack all conviction, while the worst <br />Are full of passionate intensity."<br /><br />Indeed we have no idea just now, but our bias is toward slightly higher rates - we wouldn't be long that instrument at present as the Reflation Train seems to be rolling ever so gently out of the siding.<br /><br />Lately the market has lacked conviction at the long end of the curve. We ourselves have not had a position in the Long Bond long or short) since selling in February, except for an occasional one or two day options punt to anticipate traders moving to relieve overbought/oversold excess.<br /><br />So, whither the long bond, you ask? Might I suggest to you, "pincers", with the jaws to close in December? <br /><br />A boring long bond trade, of course, is positive Nirvana for investors in rate-sensitive sectors. REITs, preferreds, some higher quality junk bonds. Yield Hogs of the world should all take advantage of this lagoon of rate stability before the winds whip up again. This is a part of our five part argument for global equities, a) rate stability in the US/EU, with the other components being b) a slow low volume squeeze, c) reach for yield d) performance anxiety and e) TINA.<br /><br />Bears clearly clutching at straws, sure we haven't reached the 200 day, and it will provide resistance but that is miles away from here, and in the meantime we did cross the 50 day! Equities will struggle when this (squeeze?) higher in crude finally runs out of steam and/or the dollar rallies strongly again. That might not be for a while.<br /><br />In the mean time, "Do ya feel lucky, punk?" <br />If you'd like to short emerging markets, for example, "Go ahead. Make my day"Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80364359214509889292015-10-07T19:26:56.188+01:002015-10-07T19:26:56.188+01:00To be fair Nico said he was closing things down an...To be fair Nico said he was closing things down and heading off to Brazil for a holiday. Perhaps the market only rallied because he lifted his offer.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84806928569912272832015-10-07T19:24:50.005+01:002015-10-07T19:24:50.005+01:00Nico where you been chap?
I think he's been ma...<i>Nico where you been chap?</i><br />I think he's been margin called being short a massive spooz rally. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83452815532303042722015-10-07T19:07:12.475+01:002015-10-07T19:07:12.475+01:00Jeez, bulls on parade here! Well Nothing goes up i...Jeez, bulls on parade here! Well Nothing goes up in a straight line of course, but the price action in EM and its derivatives are quite startling, and shouldn't be ignored I think. This week's German manufacturing data were abysmal (albeit tainted by base effects), the EZ is in "deflation", etc ... Mr. Draghi is under pressure to at least extend QE beyond September next year.<br /><br />In the end, I am a regular Munger/Buffet here with my six-month "horizon", and I think FTSE 100, Stoxx and EM will be the winners, and then "sell in May, go away", comme d'hab! <br /><br />What I want to know from LB and the rest of you ... where goes the long bond? CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51393241398127488572015-10-07T18:52:59.702+01:002015-10-07T18:52:59.702+01:00All it'll take now is for APPL to get a bid.All it'll take now is for APPL to get a bid.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67638414735240083612015-10-07T18:51:35.495+01:002015-10-07T18:51:35.495+01:00I'm glad everyone here has so much conviction ...I'm glad everyone here has so much conviction about where the market is going bc I sure dont. Kinda no mans land here till we can make some higher highs and higher lows in a bunch of indexes, IMO. Otherwise we are still under the 200day let us not forget<br /><br />Nico where you been chap? nice call on the turnaround in stoxx at 3000. you selling here?<br /><br />I'm looking at silver. Hoping CTA's and fast money do something stupid like drive the price way up. But its not for the faint of heartabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64451722875591652015-10-07T18:45:47.849+01:002015-10-07T18:45:47.849+01:00Every dip getting bought on equities. Shorts hemor...Every dip getting bought on equities. Shorts hemorrhaging money again... at this rate US equities will be back to all time highs soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68751176040328780742015-10-07T18:37:47.473+01:002015-10-07T18:37:47.473+01:00The battle of 1995 still rages .. The battle of 1995 still rages .. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-662388890201907102015-10-07T17:34:04.017+01:002015-10-07T17:34:04.017+01:00http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-07/nasdaq-tu...http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-07/nasdaq-tumbles-red-spoofer-sparks-sell<br /><br />Wonder if the SEC/CFTC/DOJ etc will imprison this guy, or do they just prosecute retail traders?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4040781309064429512015-10-07T16:25:10.898+01:002015-10-07T16:25:10.898+01:00Agreed, once they close the gap c.1950 (/ Stoxx c....Agreed, once they close the gap c.1950 (/ Stoxx c.3150) they are mine. It owes me.rpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25638322423911069462015-10-07T16:10:08.265+01:002015-10-07T16:10:08.265+01:00I would love to see spooz fall back to 1950 or low...I would love to see spooz fall back to 1950 or lower so that I can buy them all. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64344553952925539852015-10-07T16:06:12.212+01:002015-10-07T16:06:12.212+01:00re pol 1238-"The macro outlook may look rubbi...re pol 1238-"The macro outlook may look rubbish but as ever, its a game of reading how much is already in the price." have to say looking at spoos at 2000 not much....especially given earnings and margins.....there's hope that this is a v shaped pop but I'm leaning short from this am ...spoos 2000 are a sell and am scale seller all they way to 2050....<br /><br />still staying long ez but have to think they have a higher beta on way down but will wear it i guess!!<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37955365188039144662015-10-07T15:15:05.378+01:002015-10-07T15:15:05.378+01:00Skippy - No. But a big rally in a short space of t...Skippy - No. But a big rally in a short space of time can set up 'Zweig Breath Thrust' Bull indicator !<br /><br /> http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/a-possible-but-rare-bull-market-signal.htmlPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40849053773912292542015-10-07T14:37:54.942+01:002015-10-07T14:37:54.942+01:00Equities usually don't rally 18% over 7 days i...Equities usually don't rally 18% over 7 days in a bull market. Look back to the price action in the NASDAQ on the way down in 2000. Moreover, the recent price action in the bonds of commodity traders probably tells us that there is a genuine or legitimate reason to fear something more sinister is underway. JPY-Asia, perhaps JPY-SGD is worth monitoring closely in this regard. Once a credit bubble starts to fold in on top of itself, it is unlikely to stop until it is cleared.<br /><br />I will also be surprised if the commodity rally lasts more than a few days. However, I have to respect price itself, for now. It is plausible that the US and European economies are not about to collapse and China has stabilized. It is also possible that commodities tell us something about the potential for more quantitative easing (god forbid). Recall, the 1998 and 2011/12 episodes were arguably assisted by more easing. However, as per my point above, I am not convinced that more liquidity would help that sector now that the "perpetual motion machine" has already gone into reverse. <br /><br />On the China reserves, while it is a fact that there was less capital outflow than feared, it is plausible from what we hear that the authorities' have tightened up the various means of moving capital offshore. That is in contrast to their stated aim of "liberalization". Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21272128271913405602015-10-07T13:55:26.920+01:002015-10-07T13:55:26.920+01:00EM FX having a ripper of a day. All the bad childr...EM FX having a ripper of a day. All the bad children are seeing big moves, IDR, BRL, MYR, RUB. Of course its all related to oil, but also positioning. <br /><br />Perhaps mr Hasenstab was on to something? Though I think it will be a slow move back<br /><br />Templeton Betting on `Multi-Decade' Emerging-Market Opportunity http://bloom.bg/1FTeD0aabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.com