tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5754675601252696109..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Apocalypse When?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31296157483688742372011-01-30T08:57:49.144+00:002011-01-30T08:57:49.144+00:00The market is entering a correction in the short t...The market is entering a correction in the short term, but the primary support according to the Dow Theory should hold. Sentiment is very bullish and the market is overbought, but I think we can go a bit higher after the correction. <a href="http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/2011/01/january-2011-end-of-month-equity-report.html" rel="nofollow">We are in a cyclical bull, but a secular bear</a>, so the run from March 09 lows is becoming quite mature. Therefore, I am not sure how much higher we will go, as majority of the gains are now gone!Tihohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10336666083094327126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80302158523071565802011-01-26T13:57:15.297+00:002011-01-26T13:57:15.297+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03964041351398418821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22478890324870083002011-01-21T00:30:33.525+00:002011-01-21T00:30:33.525+00:00TMM, remember reading the random trasher of T/A op...TMM, remember reading the random trasher of T/A opinion of the 70's, that it was only 'perception' and that divvies would've carried you along nicely.....maybe put it down to normacly bias related to previous markets(low rates)<br /><br />You think we may see something similar throughout EM entities.....if EZ turn quasi FED?<br />They don't won't that over the long run, I'm pretty sure of that.<br /><br />O,I forgot PoLEMIC,in your non-predictions you mention FX as teh second derivative, son ,there fighting words.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11882601304613626929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85224357699293483732011-01-20T19:17:16.159+00:002011-01-20T19:17:16.159+00:00The soothsayer? DR of GS (don't be fooled, it&...The soothsayer? DR of GS (don't be fooled, it's not the squid).Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65493500513292959592011-01-20T15:54:17.935+00:002011-01-20T15:54:17.935+00:00Anons …
Oh bgr. crp typing .. corrected the title...Anons …<br /><br />Oh bgr. crp typing .. corrected the title thanks for your gentle reminder!<br /><br />As we mention in our Glossary,<br /><br />Soothsayer Signals – Reference to a form of technical analysis that is so well copywrite protected by its developer we dare not speak its name. But the number of the beast is 13 …or is it 9?. Or is it 9139? Or is it 9139139139?<br /><br />We dare say no more unless he smite us down..<br /><br />Oh and re oil -- is there anyone out there that isn't long or want to be long? We do agree that it should head higher, but it would be nice to hear from someone who disagrees. We don’t like it when we can't find a dissenter along the lines of the old saying "when you can't work out who the mug is ....Its probably you"<br /><br />But we have to say, this afternoon is actually looking as though it is commodity led.. that caught us out.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61443389436424336282011-01-20T15:49:48.225+00:002011-01-20T15:49:48.225+00:00Fading short-term apocalypse calls is invariably a...Fading short-term apocalypse calls is invariably a profitable strategy. Even soothsayers have trouble nailing the timing, and by the time the apocalypse shows up at the front door, most of us can see the whites of their socks.<br /><br />Three trades for 2011. <br /><br />Rotation from EMs/PMs to DMs, imminent. Check. <br />Rotation from high P/E stocks to dividends. <br />Rotation from high yield to munis (this may be later).Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25239144221053561232011-01-20T15:20:39.468+00:002011-01-20T15:20:39.468+00:00Yes, the bears got some vindication yesterday and ...Yes, the bears got some vindication yesterday and just from observing that the damn thing (the SPY) is not straight back in the 1290s makes me feel that there might be something to it... But I might just be wishing on a star here or something. <br /><br />Speaking of double bluff here (vis a vis the earlier TMM call on equities which turned out quite apt), I think the real surprise will be the relative shallowness of this dip. I for one am not getting my hopes up, let us test that 50 day mov av first and then I will turn more bearish if we break that decisively. Other than that it looks like a very small shake. <br /><br />Those who jumped to gun calling for a correction to 1150ish, well I don't buy it for now.<br /><br />as for the "soothsayer" could it be this <br /><br />http://seekingalpha.com/article/247401-10-decline-predicted-for-s-p-500<br /><br />I couldn't help but notice this from the comments too; <br /><br />"This months expiration option gamblers want a lower market or their contracts expire worthless."<br /><br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41874681889535560732011-01-20T15:10:15.361+00:002011-01-20T15:10:15.361+00:00Apocolypse = a small apocalypse?Apocolypse = a small apocalypse?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50691341340432989702011-01-20T14:09:30.826+00:002011-01-20T14:09:30.826+00:00and perhaps the other trade is simply to sell copp...and perhaps the other trade is simply to sell copper and buy oilAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79284302619323904602011-01-20T14:06:32.007+00:002011-01-20T14:06:32.007+00:00so ... earnings stay stable and inflation resultin...so ... earnings stay stable and inflation resulting in tightening of monetary/fiscal conditions causes PE compression ... right? so i guess that means that equity bull market in EM is over and now comes the part of picking the right sectors that will outperform on a relative basis ... any ideas here?<br /><br />yeah who is this soothsayer ... not the squid?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75986198741071262322011-01-20T14:01:42.371+00:002011-01-20T14:01:42.371+00:00Don't know what I'd do without your daily ...Don't know what I'd do without your daily witty commentary, only thing that keeps me sane :) <br />Agreed on SPX, it feels like the bull is here to stay for a bit longer, Mr. Market might turn later this year, but I don't think it's done yet. I am trying to think when did my put options expire in the green last, it's been a long time. I am a bit worried about current Asian dump, does not bode well for commodities complex, so AUD could be vulnerable, but still like CAD as a play on US strength.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13790332459636402262011-01-20T13:48:26.996+00:002011-01-20T13:48:26.996+00:00who is the soothsayer you reference?who is the soothsayer you reference?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34693886952616802552011-01-20T13:22:28.772+00:002011-01-20T13:22:28.772+00:00Euro not holding up and SPX first stop at 56. I di...Euro not holding up and SPX first stop at 56. I disagree with your analysis with respect to equities. Lots of denial at this stage. One more percent down and the mood will change dramatically. Let's see....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com